Links

For those interested.... The 5th Annual Value Symposium is back on. Not in Toronto (as originally planned), but via video and scheduled for May 27, 2020. The event has several portfolio managers scheduled to discuss their favorite ideas in a TED Talk format along with ample Q&A time for all attendees. You can buy your ticket ($29) for the virtual event HERE. For more information on the event and speakers, you can email info@YYXToronto.ca.

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Gabelli's Omaha (Virtual) Research Conference | Berkshire Hathaway Valuation | May 2, 2020 [with Chris Bloomstran] (video) (LINK)

Lollapalooza Time (LINK)

The Song Remains the Same (LINK)

Related book: Where Are the Customers' Yachts?

Princes of the Yen: Central Bank Truth Documentary (video) [H/T @hendry_hugh] (LINK)

Related book: Princes of the Yen: Japan's Central Bankers and the Transformation of the Economy

Bill Gates' summer reading list (LINK)

The books: 1) The Choice - by Dr. Edith Eva Eger; 2) Cloud Atlas - by David Mitchell; 3) The Ride of a Lifetime - by Bob Iger; 4) The Great Influenza - by John M. Barry; 5) Good Economics for Hard Times - by Abhijit V. Banerjee and Esther Duflo

Not even wrong: ways to predict tech - by Benedict Evans (LINK)

Chips and Geopolitics - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

Facebook Launches Shopping Platform for Small Businesses ($) (LINK)

Spotify Strikes $100 Million-Plus Podcast Deal With Rogan ($) (LINK)

Be Careful Handling White-Hot Moderna Stock ($) (LINK)

Invest Like the Best Podcast: Hamilton Helmer – Power + Business (LINK)

Related book: 7 Powers: The Foundations of Business Strategy

The Meb Faber Show (podcast): #221 - Chris Davis, Davis Advisors (LINK)

Against the Rules with Michael Lewis (podcast): The Coach in Your Head (LINK)

Hope, Through History Podcast: 5 | The 1918 Influenza Pandemic (LINK)

The Three Sides of Risk - by Morgan Housel (LINK)

Links

“Instead of a discussion of risk (which is both predictive and sissy) I advocate the notion of fragility, which is not predictive—and, unlike risk, has an interesting word that can describe its functional opposite, the nonsissy concept of antifragility.” --Nassim Taleb (Antifragile)

The Acquirers Podcast: Tulip Mania: Chris Bloomstran on Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway (LINK)

Related previous post: Semper Augustus Investments Group: 2019 Annual Letter

Oaktree’s Howard Marks Says Fed Support Isn’t Forever, Distress Coming (video) (LINK)

Apollo Asia Fund: the manager's report for 1Q20 (LINK)

When Failure Is an Option: A Trading Strategy Soaks Investors - by Jason Zweig ($) (LINK)

To Hedge or Not to Hedge - by Frank K. Martin (LINK)

Media, Regulators, and Big Tech; Indulgences and Injunctions; Better Approaches - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

Exponent Podcast: 185 — Open, Free, and Spotify (LINK)

Strategy under uncertainty - by Jerry Neumann (LINK)

Covid-19: Big shifts in the entertainment industry - by Sangeet Paul Choudary (LINK)

Innovation Can’t Be Forced, but It Can Be Quashed - by Matt Ridley (LINK)

Related book (released tomorrow): How Innovation Works: And Why It Flourishes in Freedom

Fed Chair Jerome Powell on "60 Minutes" (video) (LINK)

The Pomp Podcast: 294: Cullen Roche Explains The Ultimate Breakdown Of The Federal Reserve (LINK)

Hidden Forces Podcast: How the Wealth Gap Drives Imbalances in Global Trade & Finance | Michael Pettis (LINK)

The Grant Williams Podcast: Super Terrific Happy Hour Ep. 2 - Inflation/Deflation (LINK)

The Daily Stoic Podcast: Ask Daily Stoic: Ryan and Historian Andrew Roberts Talk Leadership, Character and How One Person Can Change The World (LINK)

Recode Decode Podcast: Jon Meacham: America’s history can teach us how to hope for our future (LINK)

The Twilight of the Iranian Revolution - by Dexter Filkins (LINK)

Some Zoos, and Some of Their Animals, May Not Survive the Pandemic (LINK)

What's Different About the Coronavirus in Kids - by Sarah Zhang (LINK)

Mental Models For a Pandemic (LINK)

A review of The Great Mental Models, Volume 2 (LINK)

Links

Invest Like the Best Podcast: Chris Bloomstran - An Update on Public Markets (LINK)

Related previous post: Semper Augustus Investments Group: 2019 Annual Letter

Grant’s Current Yield Podcast: Class is in session [with Bruce Greenwald] (LINK)

Broyhill Portfolio Update (LINK)

Boyar Quarterly Letter (LINK)

Greenhaven Road Capital Q1 Letter (LINK)

[More Q1 letters can be found HERE and HERE.]

The Investing Edge Podcast: Value Investor’s Edge Live #18: On The Water In The Tanker Markets With Frontline’s CEO (LINK)

Matt Ridley on The Glenn Beck Show on BlazeTV (video) (LINK)

68 Bits of Unsolicited Advice - by Kevin Kelly (LINK)

It’s my birthday. I’m 68. I feel like pulling up a rocking chair and dispensing advice to the young ‘uns. Here are 68 pithy bits of unsolicited advice which I offer as my birthday present to all of you.

I Am So Lucky - by Trey Mancini [H/T Linc] (LINK)

What you need to know about the COVID-19 vaccine - by Bill Gates (LINK)

Links

Information Regarding the 2020 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting (LINK)

Warren Buffett may have ditched airline stocks and spent $20 billion on stock buybacks, investor Chris Bloomstran says (LINK)

What the Coronavirus Crisis Reveals About American Medicine - by Siddhartha Mukherjee (LINK)

Medicine is a system for delivering care and support; it’s also a system of information, quality control, and lab science. All need fixing.

Nassim Taleb on warnings over systemic risks from global pandemics (video from last week) (LINK)

When Your Fund Beats the Market, Ask: Which Market? - by Jason Zweig ($) (LINK)

Brent Beshore chats with Tobias Carlisle on The Acquirers Podcast (LINK)

Macro Voices Podcast: Hot Topic #14: Crude Oil BLACK SWAN ALERT with Jim Bianco (LINK)

Today's Audible Daily Deal is worthwhile: Skunk Works: A Personal Memoir of My Years of Lockheed

The contenders – and challenges – in the race to cure Covid - by Matt Ridley (LINK)

A Complete History of Pandemics - by Vaclav Smil (LINK) [Excerpted from his 2008 book, Global Catastrophes and Trends: The Next 50 Years.]

Related previous post: Vaclav Smil on pandemics and growth

And for those analysts and aspiring analysts out there that may have missed the Friday afternoon post: Behind the Balance Sheet

Links

MOI Global: Chris Bloomstran at Intelligent Investing in Crisis Mode 2020 (audio) (LINK)

Related previous post: Semper Augustus Investments Group: 2019 Annual Letter

What The "CARES Act" Paycheck Protection Program Means For Small Business (LINK)

Lessons from Italy’s Response to Coronavirus [H/T @Atul_Gawande] (LINK)

The Wit and Wisdom of Lee Kuan Yew (LINK)

Semper Augustus Investments Group: 2019 Annual Letter

Once again, Chris Bloomstran's year-end letter is a must-read. Like last year, this is great to read in tandem with Warren Buffett's annual letter, which will be released in the morning.

Link to: 2019 SAI Letter -- MONEY FOR NOTHING

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And if you want to review all of Chris' deep dives into Berkshire, I recommend his 2015 letter, followed by his 2016 interview with Kate Welling, then the 2016 letter, 2017 letter, 2018 letter, and 2019 letter.

Links

Note to the hardcore Berkshire and investing readers: Warren Buffett's letter to shareholders will be released on Saturday and, as we've done for the past few years, Chris Bloomstran's annual letter will also be released here on the blog tomorrow. Chris was hoping to keep things much shorter than the 112-pager from last year, but it's looking like it'll come in a bit longer than that for this year. So make sure your printer is full of paper and ink, and check back here during the second half of the day tomorrow for the Semper Augustus Investments Group 2019 Annual Letter. 

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"Conservatism may cause investors to refrain from making some investments that in hindsight would have been successful, but it will also prevent some sizable losses that would ensue from adopting less conservative business valuations." --Seth Klarman

The Best Thing You Can Do for Your Work Is Take a Walk - by Ryan Holiday (LINK)

The Knowledge Project Podcast: #76 Frank Stephenson: Pushing the Limits of Innovation (LINK)

Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom Podcast: #32: Christopher Cole On Appreciating Risk (LINK)

Walter Isaacson reviews the book Franklin & Washington: The Founding Partnership by Edward J. Larson (LINK)

How often do severe solar storms pummel the Earth? - by Phil Plait (LINK)

A Huge Discovery in the World of Viruses - by Ed Yong (LINK)

What's Next for COVID-19? [H/T @Atul_Gawande] (LINK)

Containment of the coronavirus would make an enormous difference to health around the world. Is it still possible?

Links

Here's an example of how great of a resource Twitter can be at times.... Cliff Asness and Tren Griffin were disagreeing about the source of Berkshire Hathaway's outperformance over the years, and then Chris Bloomstran—who is probably the world expert on Berkshire Hathaway outside a handful or two of company insiders—chimes in with a 22-Tweet thread on the topic.

Conover Investment Advisory's December 2019 Newsletter: Inside the Great Wall (LINK)

Unintended Perk of the Online Mattress Boom: Never-Ending Free Trials ($) (LINK)

Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom Podcast: #31: Rob Arnott On Engineering A Better Index (LINK)

Freakonomics Radio (podcast): 399. Honey, I Grew the Economy (LINK)

The Tim Ferriss Show (podcast): #399: Adam Grant — The Man Who Does Everything (LINK)

Conversations with Tyler (podcast): Daron Acemoglu on the Struggle Between State and Society (LINK)

A white dwarf is cooking a giant planet and slowly eating it - by Phil Plait (LINK)

Why Smallpox Is No More but Polio and Other Diseases Persist (LINK)

Book of the day: The World in a Grain: The Story of Sand and How It Transformed Civilization

Links

"It’s not any goal of ours to double the revenues or increase them 20 percent, even, or anything. We just try to do whatever comes along that makes sense. And if there’s a lot that comes along in one year that makes sense, we’ll do a lot. And if there’s nothing that comes along that makes sense, we’ll do nothing. So there’s a lot of accident in it." --Warren Buffett (1996)

Warren Buffett's latest attempt to put his cash to work is thwarted (LINK)

Chris Bloomstran of Semper Augustus Investments Group doesn't like the price being offered by Kyocera for the rest of AVX. He posted some thoughts and his letter to the CEO and Special Committee on Twitter, which you can also find HERE.

Mohnish Pabrai's Annual Talk at Boston College (video) (LINK)

Josh Wolfe's Lux 2019 Annual Meeting Talk (video) (LINK)

Paul Tudor Jones and Ray Dalio at the Greenwich Economic Forum earlier this month (video) [H/T Linc] (LINK)

The Greatest Value Investor You’ve Never Heard (LINK)

Risky Business - by Frank K. Martin (LINK)

The Complete Guide To Drilling (LINK)

Value Investing with Legends Podcast: Matthew McLennan - The Power of Selectivity and Patience (LINK)

Invest Like the Best Podcast: Gavin Baker – Tech and Consumer Growth Investing (LINK)

Value: After Hours Podcast: Taylor, Brewster and Carlisle discuss Rentec, Chanos, and value (LINK)

Conversations with Tyler (podcast): Mark Zuckerberg Interviews Patrick Collison and Tyler Cowen on the Nature and Causes of Progress (LINK)

The Tim Ferriss Show (podcast): #398: Peter Attia, M.D. — Fasting, Metformin, Athletic Performance, and More (LINK)

The Beirut Banyan Podcast: 81: Nassim Nicholas Taleb & Local Solutions for Lebanon (LINK)

Origin Stories Podcast: 40: The Denisovans (LINK)

Links

"The businesses at the top of my portfolio are not necessarily going to be the ones that perform the best over the long term but are the ones I know will perform." --Chris Bloomstran [Source] 

1986 article: How to Tame the Casino Society - by Warren E. Buffett [H/T Linc] (LINK)

Non-Ergodicity and its Implications for Businesses and Investors - by Sanjay Bakshi (LINK)

A Big Little Idea Called Ergodicity (Or The Ultimate Guide to Russian Roulette) (LINK)

Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Skin in the Game (video) (LINK)

Related book: Skin in the Game

Robert G. Hagstrom on Liberal Arts Investing (video) (LINK)

Making a Killing with Bethany McLean (podcast): Tesla, and why "Elon Musk doesn't care about you" (LINK)

The Acquirers Podcast: Big Decisions: Michael Mauboussin talks luck, skill, success, risk, mean reversion and the base rate (LINK)

Robert Iger talks with Oprah Winfrey about his career at Disney (video) (LINK)

Related book: The Ride of a Lifetime: Lessons Learned from 15 Years as CEO of the Walt Disney Company

Yuval Noah Harari & Steven Pinker in conversation (video) (LINK)

The world is uniting to help this group - by Bill Gates (LINK)

Bill Gates delivers a speech at the Global Fund Replenishment conference in France.

The Many Contradictions of Thomas Edison - by Derek Thompson (LINK)

Related book: Edison - by Edmund Morris

It's only $4.99. But Costco's rotisserie chicken comes at a huge price (LINK)

A tweetstorm from Tren Griffin about wholesale transfer pricing power (LINK)

Why So Negative? - by Peter Zeihan (LINK)

What Economists (Including Me) Got Wrong About Globalization - by Paul Krugman (LINK)

Odd Lots Podcast: Why Governments Haven’t Learned The Lessons Of Japan (LINK)

The New Yorker Radio Hour (podcast): New Yorker Writers on Hong Kong, and Nixon After Tiananmen Square (LINK)

The New Yorker: Politics and More Podcast: Trump’s Abandonment of the Kurds Appeases Erdoğan and Infuriates Republicans (LINK)

Dexter Filkins joins Dorothy Wickenden to discuss how the incursion into Syria is affecting one of the most volatile regions in the world, and what it could mean for Trump’s Presidency.

5 Tenets of a Negative Self-Help - by Mark Manson (LINK)

Magnetars are the most powerful magnets in the Universe. Here's how they're made. - by Phil Plait (LINK)

What Made Me Reconsider the Anthropocene - by Peter Brannen (LINK)

Investment Masters: Learning From Chris Bloomstran

Link to: Investment Masters: Learning From Chris Bloomstran:

Whilst I’m a long-time avid follower of all of the Investment Masters, and I have to say a veritable devourer of their collected wisdom, there is nothing more valuable to me as an investor than actually speaking with these amazing people. Whether it’s a meeting at Berkshire, the odd telephone dialogue or even an interview, all of these interactions deepen my understanding of their unique views on financial and business matters and for that matter, the investment world. 

Recently I had a wonderful opportunity to Interview Chris Bloomstran of Semper Augustus. Chris is a veteran of the Investment Fraternity and a recognised Master; The stocks in his portfolio have compounded at 4.7% above the S&P 500 since launching Semper Augustus more than 20 years ago. I’ve always valued what he has to say and our interview was no exception. 

We covered many topics in the few hours in which we spoke, and I am incredibly grateful to Chris for being so open in sharing his knowledge and experience. I have collected the gems from our interview below.

....................

Related links: 

Chris Bloomstran on the Invest Like the Best podcast

Semper Augustus Investments Group: 2018 Annual Letter

Chris Bloomstran on the Invest Like the Best podcast

I've been hoping for this conversation for a while, and Chris and Patrick O’Shaughnessy finally got a chance to chat about quality companies, Berkshire Hathaway, and plenty more. In case anyone missed it, Chris has gone deep into the Berkshire weeds over the last few years with his 2015 letter, 2016 interview with Kate Welling, 2016 letter, 2017 letter, and then his most recent 2018 letter; all of which can also be found on the Semper Augustus Investments Group website. Chris is a close friend and I'm glad he's starting to get out in public a bit more, as he's one of the best investors and business analysts I know. I also think he could manage a lot more capital without having any effect on his ability to earn good absolute returns and beat the market over time, as he's done for Semper's first 20 years in business.

Link to: Chris Bloomstran on the Invest Like the Best podcast

Berkshire links

"[Lee Kuan Yew] said one thing over and over and over again all his life: 'Figure out what works and do it.' If you just go at life with that simple philosophy....you'll find it works wonderfully well. Figure out what works and do it." --Charlie Munger (2019)

I'm back after another great weekend in Omaha at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting. For those that missed it, the video and transcript are already up on the Warren Buffett Archive page, HERE.

It was nice catching up with those of you I saw in Omaha. I mostly go for things other than the actual meeting these days, but it's always special to hear and see two heroes live on stage. I don't think there were too many surprises in the Q&A this year. One thing I would love to see in the future is an investment manager or two that own a lot of Berkshire up on stage asking some questions as well. I may be biased because he's a close friend, but for anyone out there with influence who also thinks this would be interesting, Chris Bloomstran from Semper Augustus Investments Group gets my vote. I think, outside of Berkshire's board and executives, he's about the world's foremost expert on the company. 

As is usual following the meeting, Warren Buffett was on CNBC this morning. He also was joined by Charlie Munger and Bill Gates during the interview. Here is the full video: CNBC's full interview with Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger and Bill Gates 

Warren Buffett also did a short interview with CNBC on Friday of last week. 

And he spoke at the Inaugural Variant Perspectives Conference.

The Wall Street Journal ($) had a fantastic interview with Berkshire's Vice Chairman: Charlie Munger, Unplugged.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Vice Chairman Charlie Munger, 95, spoke to Wall Street Journal reporters Nicole Friedman and Jason Zweig for six hours over dinner in his Los Angeles home on April 23. He covered a wide array of subjects. Here is an edited transcript from that conversation and a follow-up telephone discussion.

And they also had another article on Munger out last week: Buffett Partner Charlie Munger Has a Side Gig: Designing College Dorms

Yahoo Finance Video: Warren Buffett talks investment strategy and mastering the market

Yahoo Finance Video: Berkshire Hathaway’s Charlie Munger discusses succession plan, politics and division in U.S. today

One of the newer books in the bookstore at the meeting that stood out to me as being especially of note, and which may have been a Charlie Munger recommendation: The Future Is Asian - by Parag Khanna

Links

In case anyone missed it last week, I think this is the clear winner for the year's best investor letter (though at over 100 pages, "letter" may not be the correct description): Semper Augustus Investments Group: 2018 Annual Letter

Masters in Business Live, with Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital (video) (LINK)

An Investment Algorithm That Works (LINK)

The Value Chain Constraint - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

How a coat on Amazon took over a neighborhood — and then the internet [H/T @emilyleldridge] (LINK)

America’s Religion Is Work - by Derek Thompson (LINK)

Invest Like the Best Podcast: Michael Kitces – The Past, Present & Future of Financial Advice (LINK)

a16z Podcast: Capitalizing on an Autonomous Vehicle Future (LINK)

Acquired Podcast: Instagram Revisited (with Emily White) (LINK)

Pitchfork Economics with Nick Hanauer: Yuval Harari - Unedited Conversation (LINK)

Does Planet 9 Exist? - by Phil Plait (LINK)

Is the World’s Largest Animal Too Reliant on the Past? - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Book of the day (also added to the Business Biographies list): The Making of Harcourt General: A History of Growth Through Diversification 1922-1992

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And for those going to the Fairfax Financial Annual Meeting in April, here are some of the other events worth checking out:

Practical History of Financial Markets Course

The Ben Graham Dinner

Ben Graham Centre's 2019 Value Investing Conference

YYX Toronto Value Symposium (early bird rate available for those that just want to attend and not present)

Semper Augustus Investments Group: 2018 Annual Letter

Chris always writes one of my favorite letters, and one of the few must-reads for me every year. And he's outdone himself this year. This is great to read in tandem with Warren Buffett's annual letter, which will be released in the morning. 

Link to 2018 SAI Letter: Addicted to Loans: A Bubble In Debt, The Trouble With Earnings, The Second Great Pivot At Berkshire Plus: The ROE You Will Not See!

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And if you want to review all of Chris' deep dives into Berkshire, I recommend his 2015 letter, followed by his 2016 interview with Kate Welling, then the 2016 letter, 2017 letter, and 2018 letter.

Links

Case Studies of Companies That Do Capital Allocation Right - by Phil Ordway (LINK)

Cummins: Diesel Engine Maker with Shareholder-Friendly Management - by Chris Bloomstran (LINK)

What Does An Intelligent Fanatic Look Like? - Ian Cassel (video) (LINK)

Brent Beshore's 2018 Year In Review: Serving the Six-Sided Teeter Totter (LINK)

O’Shaughnessy Quarterly Investor Letter Q4 2018 (LINK)

Lawrence Cunningham NACD 2018 Lifetime Achievement Award (video) (LINK)

WeWork’s CEO Makes Millions as Landlord to WeWork (LINK)

How a Behavioral Scientist Optimizes His Monthly Cashflow (LINK)

a16z Podcast: Dark Data in Healthcare (LINK)

Glossier CEO Emily Weiss on the “art and science” of the beauty business (LINK)

Peter Diamandis: "Exploring Exponential Technologies" | Talks at Google (LINK)

Tidying Up: Marie Kondo on her Netflix show, the KonMari method, and why folding "sparks joy." (video) (LINK)

Semper Augustus Investments Group: 2017 Annual Letter

For the third year in a row, Chris has earned my vote for year-end investor letter of the year, by a long shot. It's another must-read for followers of Berkshire Hathaway (There is also a whole lot more on Berkshire Hathaway in the 2015 and 2016 letters. And if you do decide to read the 2015-2017 letters that dive deep into Berkshire, I recommend reading Chris' 2016 interview with Kate Welling right after his 2015 letter.).

Link to: Semper Augustus Investments Group 2017 Annual Letter: Double Double Toil and Trouble - Wicked Valuations, Bubbles in Monetary Policy and Passive Investing; Plus - Berkshire - Charmed by the Tax Deed

Semper Augustus Investments Group: 2016 Annual Letter

Once again, Chris has earned my vote for year-end investor letter of the year. This is a must-read not just for followers of Berkshire Hathaway—as he gives the best update to the Berkshire valuation out there—but to all investors, as his discussion on profit margins and reversion to the mean is important for philosophies of every type (previous letters, including last year's roughly 70-page missive, can be found HERE).

Link to: Semper Augustus Investments Group: 2016 Annual Letter

Links

A Teacher Who Changed My Life - by Bill Gates (LINK)

Special Situations Ideas Forum - Robert Robotti [and others that join in later] on Subsea 7 (video) (LINK) [A big thanks to Vishal for setting this up and passing it along.]

Related link: Chris Bloomstran interview and Subsea 7 thesis (Chris is also in the video above)

Broyhill Asset Management's mid-year letter to investors (LINK)

How to find undervalued businesses, and why you should ignore management (LINK)

Ford plans to have a fleet of fully autonomous cars operating in a ride-hail service by 2021 (LINK)

Gino Blefari: "Real Estate Investing" | Talks at Google (video) (LINK)

Gino Blefari is the chief executive officer for HSF Affiliates LLC, which operates the real estate brokerage networks of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices, Prudential Real Estate and Real Living Real Estate (Warren Buffett’s real estate franchise business).

The meaning of trust in the age of Airbnb - by Tim Harford (LINK)

Kate Welling talks with Chris Bloomstran

Given all of the feedback I've gotten about the Semper Augustus 2015 Annual Letter, many of you are going to really enjoy the conversation between Kate Welling and Chris Bloomstran linked to below. And given that the Semper Augustus letter was written before Mr. Buffett's annual letter, this interview (which took place after the Buffett letter) is a great compliment to the previous missive; especially with the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting coming up this weekend. 

Kate's interviews are always great, and I agree with Chris when he says: "Kate Welling’s interviews are terrific and have been the best on Wall Street since her days at Barron’s. They are absolutely worth a subscription. Visit www.WellingonWallst.com for information."

Link to: Welling On Wall Street with Chris Bloomstran (April 1, 2016)