Monday, October 15, 2018

Links

"The game in our kind of life is being able to recognize a good idea when...it rarely is presented to you. And I think that’s something you have to prepare for over a long period. What is the old saying? That opportunity comes to the prepared mind? And I don’t think you can teach people in two minutes how to have a prepared mind. But that’s the game." --Charlie Munger

When Markets Tank, Do This - by Jason Zweig ($) (LINK)

Tariffs Hit Those Trump Wants to Help: U.S. Factories ($) (LINK)

Book Review: Mastering the Market Cycle (LINK)

Howard Marks on The Investors Podcast (LINK)
Related book: Mastering the Market Cycle
Did Uber Steal Google’s Intellectual Property? - by Charles Duhigg (LINK)

How Manhattan Became a Rich Ghost Town - by Derek Thompson (LINK)

Lessons from Annie Duke - by Tren Griffin (LINK)
Related book: Thinking in Bets
John Hempton's 2011 post on Sears Holdings (LINK)
My view: owning Sears as a property play is a demonstration of the arrogance and breathtaking naivete of much that passes on Wall Street. Sears Holdings has over 300 thousand employees. I don't know how you successfully liquidate a business integrated with that many lives. I don't know of anyone who has ever successfully liquidated a business with that many employees.** I am not sure it can be done and it certainly can't be done by someone with my skill-set (highly analytical, ability to spy value or value traps but no people management skill and not much tact). 
The idea that Sears was going to be managed/liquidated by a bunch of hedge fund guys (people like me) well - that was comical. 
Just to stress the point for my fund manager friends who read accounts and have my skills (but like me are often disconnected from the businesses they invest in) I will state the obvious. The employees are living breathing people and as you pull the business apart the way you treat those people and how they think about you (and behave towards you) are critical to any value you extract in liquidation. Someone has to look these people in the eye and tell them they don't have a job. And someone has to pick-and-choose which people to fire and which to retain. And they have to do this without destroying much of the value extracted along the way. They have to liquidate the firm in such a way that the value accrues to the liquidators and not to the people who are being screwed. 
I don't care what you think of the morality of that. The reality of that is that it was always going to be hard - possibly very hard.
Stephen Hawking feared race of ‘superhumans’ able to manipulate their own DNA [H/T Linc] (LINK)
Related book: Brief Answers to the Big Questions
Male Gorillas Love Hanging Around With Infants - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Saturday, October 13, 2018

Links

"If you're going to do anything new or different in the world, it is going to be misunderstood. Sometimes by well-meaning critics. Sometimes by self-interested critics. You'll get all kinds. And it's okay. It's all part of the process. The only way to avoid criticism altogether is to be completely conventional in everything you do. So how do you respond the the criticism?... What's the right thing to do? Well, I think the first thing you do is you ask: Are the critics right? You listen. You ask are they right? Or even if they're not completely right, is there some piece of it that's right that you can be inspired by? And then if you decide, by the way, that the answer is no—that you believe you have conviction that what you're doing is the right course—then no force in the world should be able to move you. You should have a deep keel. But if you decide that there is something, then you should change." --Jeff Bezos

Jeff Bezos receives the Sammies Spirit of Service award, and then chats with Michael Lewis [H/T ValueWalk] (it starts with 27 minutes left in the livestream video) (LINK)

Mohnish Pabrai Lecture at Boston College: "The Ten Commandments of Investment Management" (video) (LINK)

James Grant and Jason Zweig on WealthTrack (video) (LINK)

Hedge Fund Billionaire Rode the Worst Trade of His Life All the Way Down [Lampert/Sears] (LINK)

Introduction and Chapter One of Jonathan Tepper's new book, The Myth of Capitalism: Monopolies and the Death of Competition (LINK)

Stephen King’s 20 Rules for Writers (LINK)

What Manatees Do During Hurricane Season - by Ed Yong (LINK)

"Generally speaking, there’s more felicity to be gained...from reducing expectations than in any other way." --Charlie Munger

Thursday, October 11, 2018

Links

"We don’t have a master plan.... Charlie and I do not sit around and strategize or talk about the future of various industries or do anything of that sort. It just doesn’t happen. We don’t have any reports. We don’t have any staff. We don’t have any of that.... We try to look at what comes in and look for things we understand, where we think they have a durable, competitive advantage, where we like the management, and where the price is sensible." --Warren Buffett

Time Horizon vs. Endurance - by Morgan Housel (LINK)

The Meb Faber Show (podcast): #125 - Tom Barton - "The Biggest Problem Investors Have is Things Change…and They Don’t Change" (LINK)
Tom is the Founder, President, and General Partner of White Rock Capital. He helped build the first multibillion-dollar short-selling hedge fund at Feshbach Brothers in the 1980s, where he exposed dozens of stock frauds. Then he became an early-stage investor, going long on health foods and satellite TV. Now he runs White Rock Capital, where much of his focus is on investments in gene-therapy firms.
The North Star Podcast -- Daniel Gross: Dreams and Determination (LINK)
My guest today is Daniel Gross, a partner at Y Combinator, the world’s best startup studio. Daniel focuses on artificial intelligence at Y Combinator and recently founded AI Grant, a distributed AI Research Lab.  
American Innovations Podcast: Polio Vaccine | Marching Towards a Cure (LINK)
By the middle of the last century Americans lived in fear of one disease: polio. The story of the polio vaccine is not just a scientific story- it’s a political and financial one, too. One that would pave the way for medical research fundraising campaigns that followed.
TED Talk: What baby boomers can learn from millennials at work -- and vice versa | Chip Conley (LINK)

Yuval Noah Harari: "21 Lessons for the 21st Century" | Talks at Google (LINK)

Soyuz rocket failure after launch forces emergency landing; crew safe on the ground (LINK)

The Maya Kept Jaguar Zoos for Centuries - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Links

"Students of financial history can point to historic levels of valuation to suggest that we are in a bubble. But students of psychology may be needed to complete the picture. For one thing, the financial markets have been so strong for so long that fear of market risk has mostly evaporated. People who used to hold bank certificates of deposit now maintain a portfolio of growth stocks. It is not really within human nature to comprehend that you may not know everything you think you know, and, further, that what you believe in could change on a dime.... With more and more of the market value of U.S. equities represented by lofty (in some cases infinite) multiples of current results, a change in sentiment could wipe out a large percentage of investor net worth. Sentiment, existing only in the minds of investors, is subject to change quickly and without notice." --Seth Klarman (June 1999)

Howard Marks' interview on Nasdaq Spotlight (video) (LINK)
Related book: Mastering the Market Cycle
The Battle for the Home - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

The BP Statistical Review of World Energy [H/T @Valuetrap13] (LINK)

For Doctors, Delving Deeper as a Way to Avoid Burnout - by Siddhartha Mukherjee (LINK)

If you keep hearing the name Jordan Peterson but still don't know much about him, this two-and-a-half-hour video conversation seems to cover his thoughts and ideas pretty thoroughly.... Oz Talk: Jordan Peterson’s Rules to Live By

Tuesday, October 9, 2018

Links

Accomplishing True Mastery - by Ian Cassel (LINK)

Can the Wi-Fi chip in your phone help feed the world? - By Bill Gates (LINK)

Greenlight Capital's Q3 Letter (LINK)

Pershing Square's presentation on Starbucks (LINK)

Kevin Warsh, former Federal Reserve governor, on the Grant’s Current Yield Podcast (LINK)

Exponential Wisdom Podcast: AI Disrupting the Middleman (LINK)
Peter and Dan discuss the disintermediation of the insurance industry, and specifically how AI will disrupt the middleman in all industries.
NPR Planet Monday re-released a podcast from 2014, "The History of Light," that featured Bill Nordhaus, who just won the economics Nobel. Josh Wolfe also re-tweeted some things he wrote about the other economics Nobel winner, Paul Romer, from back in 2015. Romer was also on EconTalk three times and gave a Long Now talk in 2009, for those interested. 

Everyday Discrimination Literally Raises Women’s Blood Pressure - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Monday, October 8, 2018

Links

"We only regard errors as being things that are within our circle of competence. So if somebody knows how to make money in cocoa beans, or they know how to make money in a software company or anything, and we miss that, that is not an error, as far as we’re concerned. What’s an error is when it’s something we understand, and we stand there and stare at it, and we don’t do anything. Or worse yet, what really gets me is when we do something very small with it. We do an eyedropper’s worth of it, when we could do it very big." --Warren Buffett

Lessons from Howard Marks’ New Book: “Mastering the Market Cycle – Getting the Odds on Your Side” - by Tren Griffin (LINK)

Why Quant Investor Cliff Asness Is Staying Calm, Despite a Tough 2018 (LINK)

Why Do Computers Use So Much Energy? (LINK)

How I Built This podcast -- method: Adam Lowry & Eric Ryan (LINK)

a16z Podcast: From Research to Startup, There and Back Again (LINK)

The New Atlanta Billionaires Behind An Unlikely Tech Unicorn (LINK)

Reddit: the rancorous rise of a social-media phenomenon (LINK)
Related book: We Are the Nerds: The Birth and Tumultuous Life of Reddit, the Internet's Culture Laboratory
TED Talk: How I climbed a 3,000-foot vertical cliff -- without ropes | Alex Honnold (LINK) [The documentary on the climb is now playing in select theaters as well.]

Friday, October 5, 2018

Links

"I do find that most creative people end up applying different rules to their lives—in terms of how their lives are managed—because creativity doesn't necessarily conform to more traditional boundaries; whether their hours of work, places of work, circumstances. What you have to accept with creators and creativity is that one rule doesn't apply. It's whatever works for them." --Bob Iger

Bob Iger’s Bets Are Paying Off Big Time for Disney (LINK)

Howard Marks talks with Barry Ritholtz (podcast) (LINK)
Related book: Mastering the Market Cycle
Robert Vinall with an excellent letter on the 10-year anniversary of his fund [registration required] (LINK)

A great list of Investment Resources [H/T Linc] (LINK) [It may be especially worthwhile to read THIS, 10 years after the event.]

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon doesn't think he has too much power in this economy (Corner Office podcast) (LINK)

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Investor Sentiment and the Housing Market -  by John Huber (LINK)

Risk Management - by Morgan Housel (LINK)

How Humans Get Hacked: Yuval Noah Harari & Tristan Harris Talk with WIRED (video) (LINK)
Yuval Noah Harari, historian and best-selling author of Sapiens, Homo Deus and 21 Lessons for the 21st Century, and Tristan Harris, co-founder and executive director of the Center for Humane Technology, speak with WIRED Editor in Chief Nicholas Thompson.
Lawrence Burns: "AUTONOMY: The Quest to Build the Driverless Car" | Talks at Google (LINK)

Yale Is Said to Invest in Crypto Fund That Raised $400 Million (LINK)

The Fed on Unemployment and the Future - by Frank K. Martin (LINK)

Jim Grant on CNBC yesterday (video) (LINK)

Michael Lewis calls Trump's approach to staffing the government 'insane' (video) [H/T Linc] (LINK)
Related book: The Fifth Risk
For Real Vision subscribers, Kyle Bass sits down with Graham Allison, author of Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?, to chat about China, geopolitics, history, and more (LINK) [If you're not a subscriber and would to join or take a free trial, you can sign up HERE.]

Human Action: A Chapter-by-Chapter Summary (LINK)

Four roads we call customer service - by Seth Godin (LINK)

On the Law of Diminishing Specialization - by Cal Newport (LINK)

Your Work Is the Only Thing That Matters - by Ryan Holiday (LINK)

A Controversial Virus Study Reveals a Critical Flaw in How Science Is Done - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Slightly More Than 100 Fantastic Articles [H/T Phil] (LINK)
A list of nonfiction journalism from 2017 that will stand the test of time.

Wednesday, October 3, 2018

Links

"We’ve done a lot of that, scrambled out of wrong decisions. I’d argue that’s a big part of having a reasonable record in life. You can’t avoid the wrong decisions. But if you recognize them promptly and do something about them, you can frequently turn the lemon into lemonade." --Charlie Munger

"We do find, if you just show up every day, like Woody Allen said, and you answer the phone and read the paper, every now and then, you see something that makes sense to do." --Warren Buffett

Bill Gates' Goalkeepers presentation: Is poverty inevitable? (video) (LINK)

Oaktree's Howard Marks Calls for Caution in the Markets (video) (LINK)
Related memo: The Seven Worst Words in the World
Howard Marks talks with Meb Faber (podcast) (LINK)
Related book: Mastering the Market Cycle
Offering Inspiration and Advice, Real Vision Is HGTV for Hedge Fund Hopefuls (LINK)

Is Amazon Woke Now? - by Derek Thompson (LINK)

Patrick Collison, the founder Stripe, on running a startup company for success (video) (LINK)

Fantastic Beasts and How to Rank Them - by Kathryn Schulz (LINK)
The relative plausibility of impossible beings tells you a lot about how the mind works.
Fruit has become so sugary that animals at one zoo can no longer eat it [H/T @B3_MillerValue] (LINK)

The Game-Changing Technique Behind an Amazing New Archaeological Discovery - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Kelly, the Sassy Dolphin [H/T @edyong209] (LINK)

"I think curiosity and character are the two most important attributes to have. I’m not sure how to best build curiosity in people, but I’d say the habit of asking a lot of questions like “why” in order to make sense of things is good. As for character, the most important habit is to go to the pain because it will strengthen you which will give you the power you need to be successful. Pain + Reflection = Progress.  With practice the pain won’t be as painful and you will begin to see the pleasures of the successes so that going to the pain will make you feel good rather than bad." --Ray Dalio (Source)

Tuesday, October 2, 2018

Links

As most readers of this blog will know, Howard Marks' new book, Mastering the Market Cycle, was released today.

Winning It Back - by Ian Cassel (LINK)

Data Factories - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

Buyer beware? - by Seth Godin (LINK)

Atul Gawande talks with Shane Parrish on The Knowledge Project Podcast (LINK)
The world-renowned surgeon, writer, and researcher Atul Gawande shares powerful lessons about creating a culture of safe learning, the critical difference between a coach and a mentor, and how to ensure constant improvement in key areas of your personal and professional life.
Fritjof Capra on the MetaLearn Podcast (LINK)
Related book: The Systems View of Life: A Unifying Vision
Yuval Noah Harari In Conversation with Christine Lagarde (video) (LINK)
Related book: 21 Lessons for the 21st Century
Ryan Holiday on Merging Creativity and Business (podcast) (LINK)

A newly discovered extremely distant icy world points to Planet 9 - by Phil Plait (LINK)

What a Beetle’s Genital Worms Reveals About the Concept of Individuality - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Monday, October 1, 2018

Links

An excerpt from a rare, long interview with Stanley Druckenmiller (video) (LINK) [If you want to watch the entire 90-minute interview and you're not yet a subscriber, you can join or take a free trial by signing up HERE.]

A Primer on Banks (LINK)

The ‘Dumb’ Money Is Bailing on U.S. Stocks. That’s Smart. - by Jason Zweig ($) (LINK)

Lessons from Scott Belsky’s Book “The Messy Middle” - by Tren Griffin (LINK)

Market Timing is Hard - by Ben Carlson (LINK)

Insider Trading’s Odd Couple: The Goldman Banker and the NFL Linebacker (LINK)

Cities Are Teaming Up to Offer Broadband, and the FCC Is Mad (LINK)

How Serious is the New Facebook Breach? - by Evan Osnos (LINK)

TED Talk: 3 lessons on decision-making from a poker champion | Liv Boeree (LINK)

This Timeless And Boldy Optimistic Idea Could Change Your Life - by Ryan Holiday (LINK)

Michael Lewis’s new book about Trump is a convincing ode to big government (LINK)
The book, which combines two features Lewis wrote for Vanity Fair and an audiobook he produced with Audible, extolls the virtues of the government at its best: The weather data we get from our apps? Thank NOAA. The fact that there aren’t more geese crowding American airports? Thanks, US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The reason eastern North Carolina didn’t get obliterated by a rogue hydrogen bomb in 1961? Safety mechanisms built by the Department of Energy (DOE).

Thursday, September 27, 2018

Links

With Western Union considering the sale of its business payments unit, and Univar agreeing to buy Wilbur Ross's Nexeo for about $2 billion, Boyar Value Group has been kind enough to allow free access [with registration] to reports they've done on those companies over the last few months: LINK TO REPORTS

Massif Capital research report: Mining for Innovation (LINK)

Different Kinds of Smart - by Morgan Housel (LINK)

Trailblazers with Walter Isaacson Podcast -- Watches: Innovation on Time (LINK)
Walter Isaacson and guests engage in a timely discussion on how humans throughout history answer one of our most fundamental questions: “When?” So, what makes the industry tick? And how can we expect time to change in the future?
Crazy/Genius Podcast: Can Artificial Intelligence Be Smarter Than a Human Being? (LINK)

Y Combinator Podcast: SEO Advice from SurveyMonkey Director of SEO and Growth, Eli Schwartz (LINK)

Who is Michael Ovitz? (podcast) (LINK)
Related book: Who Is Michael Ovitz?
Why Your Vacuum Clogs but a Manta Ray Doesn’t - by Ed Yong (LINK)

The Lingering Curse That’s Killing Killer Whales - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Wednesday, September 26, 2018

Howard Marks Memo: The Seven Worst Words in the World

Link to Memo: The Seven Worst Words in the World
This month marks the tenth anniversary of Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy filing on September 15, 2008, and with it the arrival of the terminal melt-down phase of the Global Financial Crisis. Enough time has passed for the trauma of the Global Financial Crisis to have worn off; memories of those terrible times to have grown dim; and the reasons for stringent credit standards to have receded into the past. Investors have had plenty of time to get used to monetary stimulus and reliance on the Fed to inject liquidity to support economic activity. 
In today's market environment, the possible effects of economic overstimulation, increasing inflation, contractionary monetary policy, rising interest rates and thus rising corporate debt service burdens do create uncertainty. So, is there again "too much money chasing too few deals"? 

Links

"There can't be a rule that always works.... These things cannot be reduced to a rule. The market operates so as to confound rule makers.... It all comes down to judgment. If we're going to have superior investment performance we have to have superior judgment. You can work on your processes, both intellectually and emotionally, but superior judgment isn't something you can order up. And not everybody can necessarily attain it. I think that one of the most important things is to dismiss the concept of a process or rule that always works in the absence of superior judgment." --Howard Marks

Howard Marks on The Tim Ferriss Show — How to Master Market Cycles (LINK)
Related book: Mastering the Market Cycle
Gorilla Games (adventur.es): Q3 2018 Update on What Amazon Means for the Rest of Us (LINK)

One Day [Working] at Amazon: In The Belly Of The Beautiful Beast - By Mills Snell (adventur.es) (LINK)

Instagram’s CEO - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

Sanjay Bakshi: Excerpts from “The Character of Physical Law” by Richard Feynman (LINK)

Geoffrey Miller on The Joe Rogan Experience (podcast) (LINK)
Geoffrey Miller is an evolutionary psychologist, serving as an associate professor of psychology at the University of New Mexico and known for his expertise in sexual selection in human evolution.
Book of the day: Gandhi: The Years That Changed the World, 1914-1948

Tuesday, September 25, 2018

Howard Marks on investing and making conservative assumptions

From his talk at Wharton:
There's only one intelligent form of investing, and that's to figure out what something is worth and try to buy it for less. Distressed debt investing is not different in that regard. We have to do the same thing. Simply put, you look at a company, you look at the business, you figure out what it could make in a normal environment, and you figure out what that company would be worth—generally to a strategic buyer once its problems are largely resolved and once the capitalization has been restructured. Then you think about how that value will be divided up among the various classes of claimants, and you figure out what a piece of a claim is worth and you see if you can buy it for less. 
If you can make those judgments on the basis of conservative assumptions and still end up with good room for profit, then that's a source for margin for error. I think that the margin for error comes primarily from being able to use conservative assumptions, and then still be looking at a generous rate of return. 
Now, I must say, it's not true that the more conservative the better. Because you can get to the point where you can make assumptions that are so conservative that you'll never lose money, but it will give you a target buying price that is so low that you'll never buy anything. So you have to gut it out and be willing to include some optimism, or else you may never get to buy anything. 

Monday, September 24, 2018

Links

"Well, generally, you can say that stocks are valued in two different ways. One, they’re valued much the way wheat is valued, in terms of its perceived practical utility to the user of the wheat. And there’s a second way that stocks are valued, which is the way Rembrandts are valued. And to some extent, Rembrandts are valued high, because in the past, they’ve gone up in price. And once you get a lot of Rembrandt element into the stock market, and you fuel the stock market with massive retirement system purchases, you can get stocks selling at very high prices by past historical standards. And that can go on for a long, long time.  That’s what makes life so interesting. It isn’t at all clear how it’s going to work out. It isn’t even clear what the level of interest rates is going to be. And nobody in this room ever expects to see 3 percent interest rates continue for a long time again. But that could happen. That would have an enormous effect on the price of equities. You live in a world where you can’t really predict these macroeconomic changes." --Charlie Munger, 2000 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting

CNBC's full interview with JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon (LINK)

The Company Implosion Pageant ($) (LINK)
We’re late in the cycle and VCs are making some crazy bets. Who will fail hardest?
Winner Takes it All: How Markets Favor the Few at the Expense of the Many (LINK)

An hour-long conversation between Fred Wilson and Chris Dixon (a16z podcast) (LINK)

Remember when a glass of wine a day was good for you? Here's why that changed. [H/T Peter Attia] (LINK)

Robots are now hopping around on the surface of an asteroid (LINK)

Discovery of Galileo’s long-lost letter shows he edited his heretical ideas to fool the Inquisition (LINK)

Saturday, September 22, 2018

Links

"The number one thing that has made us successful by far is obsessive-compulsive focus on the customer, as opposed to obsession over the competitor." --Jeff Bezos (Source)

All Transcripts From The Tim Ferriss Show (LINK)

Wall Street and the “Vampire Squid”: A Brief History - by Jason Zweig (LINK)

Ray Dalio On The Economy (video) (LINK)
Related book: Big Debt Crises - by Ray Dalio (free PDF HERE)
Bruce Flatt of Brookfield on owning the backbone of the global economy ($) [H/T Linc] (LINK)

3 Investments That May Have Hit Their Peak (LINK)

A Chinese Company Reshaping the World Leaves a Troubled Trail [H/T @WallStCynic] (LINK)

‘Whatever It Takes’ - by Frank K. Martin (LINK)

Amazon and Apple at a Trillion $: A Follow-up on Uncertainty and Catalysts! - by Aswath Damodaran (LINK)

Scott Galloway | Full Video | 2018 Code Commerce (LINK)

Peter Thiel on Trump, Gawker, and Leaving Silicon Valley (video) (LINK)

Yuval Noah Harari in conversation with Terrence McNally at Live Talks Los Angeles (video) (LINK)
Related book: 21 Lessons for the 21st Century
Radiolab Podcast: Infective Heredity (LINK)
Today, a fast moving, sidestepping, gene-swapping free-for-all that would’ve made Darwin’s head spin. 
David Quammen tells us about a shocking way that life can evolve - infective heredity. To figure it all out we go back to the earliest versions of life, and we revisit an earlier version of Radiolab. After reckoning with a scientific icon, we find ourselves in a tangle of genes that sheds new light on peppered moths, drug-resistant bugs, and a key moment in the evolution of life when mammals went a little viral. 

Jeff Bezos At The Economic Club Of Washington (9/13/18)


Link to video

Thursday, September 20, 2018

Links

"It is necessary to caution the analyst against overconfidence in the practical utility of his findings. It is always good to know the truth, but it may not always be wise to act upon it, particularly in Wall Street. And it must always be remembered that the truth that the analyst uncovers is first of all not the whole truth and, secondly, not the immutable truth. The result of his study is only a more nearly correct version of the past. His information may have lost its relevance by the time he acquires it, or in any event by the time the market place is finally ready to respond to it." --Benjamin Graham and David Dodd (Security Analysis: Sixth Edition)

Marks Investor Series featuring Howard Marks, W’67, Co-Chairman, Oaktree Capital (video) (LINK)

Oaktree’s Howard Marks says Brexit makes UK too risky to invest in (LINK)

Fool Me Three Times And I Give Up - by Morgan Housel (LINK)

Knowledge vs. Skill - by Ben Carlson (LINK)

The Holy Active Empire - by Jamie Catherwood (LINK)

Apple and Amazon at a Trillion $: Looking Back and Looking Forward! - by Aswath Damodaran (LINK)

How to Make a Killing in Gene Therapy [H/T Ian] (LINK)

Creative Prompts - by Fred Wilson (LINK)

Habits vs. Workflows - by Cal Newport (LINK)

a16z Podcast: Tesla and the Nature of Disruption (LINK)

Crazy/Genius Podcast (from last week): Can Science Cure Aging? (LINK)

Crazy/Genius Podcast: Will We Ever Stop Eating Animal Meat? (LINK)

Long Now Seminars (podcast version) -- Julia Galef: Soldiers and Scouts: Why our minds weren’t built for truth, and how we can change that (LINK)

Sam Harris speaks with Yuval Noah Harari about his new book 21 Lessons for the 21st Century (podcast) (LINK)

What Ecstasy Does to Octopuses - by Ed Yong (LINK)
Despite their wacky brains, these intelligent animals seem to respond to the drug in a very similar way to humans.
A 558-Million-Year-Old Mystery Has Been Solved - by Ed Yong (LINK)
Scientists have finally confirmed that a weird ribbed oval called Dickinsonia is an animal.

Wednesday, September 19, 2018

Links

I'm back in Charlotte after a great couple of weeks traveling. As often happens, I brought way more to read with me than I actually had time to read, but I did catch up on some podcasts, started a couple of new things, and was able to get through Bethany McLean's latest book, Saudi America, which I thought was especially good, well-balanced, and timely. It pairs well with Jeremy Grantham's "The Race of Our Lives Revisited," as well as the shale section in the first part of Peter Zeihan's book The Absent Superpower.

One of the Grant's podcasts also mentioned two books on cycles—one by Jim Grant himself, The Trouble With Prosperity, as well as Economics and the Public Welfare by Benjamin Anderson, which Amazon tells me I bought in 2012 and yet wasn't kind enough to also let me know where I seem to have placed it. And those books both reminded me that we are only a couple of weeks away from the book many of us have been eagerly awaiting: Mastering the Market Cycle by Howard Marks.

***

"Machines are there to help people, not replace them. Humans should never wait for machines. Machines wait for people. And so in this way, I find myself so far outside of the world of technology. I see so much 'technology over everything' kind of thinking where those people are like, it’s all there....I don’t even think there’s such a thing as, truly, the technology industry, right? It’s a weird construct. It’s like, technology is a...it’s not an industry. It’s not even a strategy. It’s sort of a tactic. It’s like a tool that you use to give people more skills." --Tobi Lütke

Tobi Lütke, founder and CEO of Shopify, talks with Shane Parrish on The Knowledge Project Podcast (LINK) [In addition to the quote above, this conversation also has some great insights on culture and on creating the right environment at a company.]

Predicting the Future with Bayes’s Theorem (LINK)

You Can Time The Market, Just Not All The Time - by Jason Zweig (LINK)
Howard Marks has made a few market calls in his day, but warns that it’s harder than it looks
How Jim Chanos Uses Cynicism, Chutzpah — and a Secret Twitter Account — to Take on Markets (and Elon Musk) (LINK)

Grant’s Interest Rate Observer's piece on municipal bonds, featuring Chris Pavese of Broyhill Asset Management (LINK)

Amazon Data Leaks and Bribes Have Consequences (LINK)

How to keep up progress on global health - by Bill Gates (LINK)

For Real Vision subscribers, Michael Mauboussin had a video released discussing "The Five Behavioral Mistakes Investors Make" (LINK), and the final episode of The Jim Grant Series also aired, which was an interview with Dan Rasmussen (LINK) [If you're not a subscriber and would to join or take a free trial, you can sign up HERE.]

Ben Thompson's article from last week, as well as his latest:

The iPhone Franchise (LINK)

The European Union Versus the Internet (LINK)

And Ed Yong has continued his productive ways, writing about the latest and/or more interesting science stories of the day...

Bacteria in a Dinosaur Bone Reignite a Heated Debate (LINK)

The Genes That Never Go Out of Style (LINK)

The Three Major Cartels Behind the Downfall of Africa’s Elephants (LINK)

Wiping Out the Brain’s Retired Cells Prevents a Hallmark of Alzheimer's (LINK)

Tuesday, September 18, 2018

Seneca quote on endurance

"Fortune lashes and mangles us: well, let us endure it: it is not cruelty, it is a struggle, in which the oftener we engage the braver we shall become. The strongest part of the body is that which is exercised by the most frequent use: we must entrust ourselves to fortune to be hardened by her against herself: by degrees she will make us a match for herself. Familiarity with danger leads us to despise it. Thus the bodies of sailors are hardened by endurance of the sea, and the hands of farmers by work; the arms of soldiers are powerful to hurl darts, the legs of runners are active: that part of each man which he exercises is the strongest: so by endurance the mind becomes able to despise the power of misfortunes." --Seneca ("Of Providence")

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Related quotes:

"There were two vices much blacker and more serious than the rest: lack of persistence and lack of self-control....Endure and Renounce." --Epictetus

"By endurance we conquer." --Shackleton Family Motto (“Fortitudine Vincimus”)

Monday, September 17, 2018

More from Charlie Munger on opportunity cost...

In the real world, you have to find something that you can understand that’s the best you have available. And once you’ve found the best thing, then you measure everything against that because it’s your opportunity cost. That’s the way small sums of money should be invested. And the trick, of course, is getting enough expertise that your opportunity cost — meaning your default option, which is still pretty good — is very high.... Most people aren’t going to find thousands of things that are equally good; they’re going to find a few things where one or two of them are way better than anything else they know. And the right way to think about investing is to act thinking about your best opportunity cost. 
Reviewing the comments from Buffett and Munger on opportunity costs over the years has made me make a slight change to my investment process. Now, multiple times a week I go over the key aspects and thesis (about a paragraph or two in length) for each of the things I am actually invested in. This serves two key purposes:
  1. Opportunity Cost: Like the quote from Munger above, it allows me to always have my opportunity cost at the top of my mind when looking at new ideas, thus helping to improve the idea-filtering process.
  2. Disconfirming Evidence: By constantly reviewing my reasons for owning something, I hope to be able to more quickly identify evidence that may opposed to those reasons, thus increasing my ability to recognize mistakes faster as well as using the practice of searching for disconfirming evidence as a way to train myself to be more objective
For those looking to grow a money management business, it can also help in one's marketing efforts. While many people may want to conclude that just finding great ideas will lead to a successful business, or that being able to tell every bit of minutiae about a given holding can display one's skill—the truth is that more often than not, being able to clearly articulate the key points in a thesis is what will get someone's initial attention. From there, the level of detail one goes into will vary by potential investor, but showing some clarity helps the marketing which helps drive one's business. And as Ben Franklin said, "Drive thy business or it will drive thee."


Friday, September 14, 2018

Thinking of what can go wrong

The quote from Warren Buffett below, from the 2000 Berkshire annual meeting, goes well with THIS Seth Klarman quote and, especially, the 'What can go wrong?' section in THIS post.

"When we look at businesses, we try to think of what can go wrong with them. We try to look [for] businesses that are good businesses now, and we think about what can go wrong with them. If we can think of very much that can go wrong with them, we just forget it. We are not in the business of assuming a lot of risk in businesses. That doesn’t mean we don’t do it inadvertently and make mistakes, because we do. But we don’t intentionally, or willingly, voluntarily, go into situations where we perceive really significant risk that the business is going to change in a major way." --Warren Buffett

Thursday, September 13, 2018

Warren Buffett on P/E ratios and the future looking different from the present

One of the best buys we ever made was in 1976 when we bought a significant percentage — what became through repurchases — 50 percent of GEICO at a time when the company was losing a lot of money and was destined to lose a lot of money in the immediate future. 
And, you know, the fact they were losing money was not lost on us, but we thought we saw a future there that was significantly different than the current situation. 
So it would not bother us in the least to buy into a business that currently was losing money for some reason that we understood, and where we thought that the future was going to be significantly different. 
Similarly, if a business is making some money — there’s no P/E ratio that we have in mind as being a cutoff point at all. There are businesses — I mean, you could have some business making a sliver of money on which you would pay a very, very high P/E ratio. 
...There are all kinds of decisions that involve the future looking different, in some important way, than the present. Most of our decisions relate to things where we expect the future not to change much. 
But you get this — well, American Express was a good example. And when we bought it in 1964, a fellow named Tino DeAngelis had caused them incredible trouble. You know, it was one of those decisions that looked, for a time, as if it could break the company. 
So, we knew — if you’d been charging for what Tino had stolen from the company against the income account that year, or the legal costs that were going to be attached to it, you were looking at a significant loss. 
But the question was, what was American Express going to look like 10 or 20 years later? And we felt very good about that. 
So there are no arbitrary cutoff points. But there is that focus on, how much cash will this business deliver, you know, between now and Kingdom Come? Now as a practical matter, if you estimate it for 20 years or so, the terminal values get less important. 
So — but you do want to have, in your mind, a stream of cash that will be thrown off over, say, a 20-year period, that makes sense discounted at a proper interest rate, compared to what you’re paying today. And that’s what investment’s all about. 

Wednesday, September 12, 2018

Links

Thank you to everyone who responded to last week's post. Those responses and kind words were much more than I expected, and I really appreciate it. A stop in London has given me a little internet access, and a little time to catch up on some items of note from the past week. 

***

Warren Buffett's in depth interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin on the 2008 financial crisis (video) (LINK) ["Confidence comes back one at a time, but fear is instantaneous.... Fear just spreads like nothing you've ever seen.... That's the advantage I've got, frankly. It isn't I.Q. It's [that] I'm not going to get fearful about the United States over time."]

When You Lose 99.9%, You’ve Lost More Than Money - by Jason Zweig ($) (LINK)

Bruce J. Flatt "Durable Principles for Real Asset Investing" | Talks at Google (LINK)

Can Mark Zuckerberg Fix Facebook Before It Breaks Democracy? - by Evan Osnos (LINK)

“Skin in the Game” - Nassim Nicholas Taleb Speech At RPI's Media & War Conference (video) (LINK)

Elon Musk talks with Joe Rogan (Video, Podcast)

Risk, Uncertainty and Ignorance in Investing and Business – Lessons from Richard Zeckhauser - by Tren Griffin (LINK)

The Decision Matrix: How to Prioritize What Matters (LINK)

Ben Thompson chats with Shane Parrish (podcast) (LINK)

Ray Dalio's Template For Understanding BIG DEBT CRISES [H/T Bill] (Sign Up for Free PDF, or Buy the Book)

How Self-Driving Cars Could Ruin the American City (podcast) (LINK)

Trailblazers with Walter Isaacson -- Batteries: The Power of Portable Power (podcast) (LINK)

Trillion Dollar Toppers: Market Triggers, Value Drivers and Pricing Catalysts! - by Aswath Damodaran (LINK)

13D Research: Big box stores were never economic development (LINK)

How 3D printers are preparing students for life after high school - By Bill Gates (LINK)

Steven Johnson on the a16z Podcast discussing his new book Farsighted: How We Make the Decisions That Matter the Most (LINK)

Doris Kearns Goodwin on The Tim Ferriss Show: The Life Lessons and Success Habits of Four Presidents (podcast) (LINK)

Sam Harris speaks with Jonathan Haidt about his new book The Coddling of the American Mind (podcast) (LINK)

Robert Lustig, M.D., M.S.L.: fructose, processed food, NAFLD, and changing the food system (podcast) (LINK)

Kobe Bryant: Mamba Mentality and The Mind of a Champion (podcast) (LINK)

oGoLead Leadership Podcast: Tom Brady, New England Patriots Quarterback (Part 1, Part 2)

Ed Yong has also been busy writing about the latest and/or more interesting science stories of the day...

What Was Lost in Brazil’s Devastating Museum Fire (LINK)

A Once-Captive Dolphin Has Introduced Her Friends to a Silly Trend (LINK)

This Tiny Songbird Rolls Its Head to Break Its Victim’s Neck (LINK)

Humans Are Destroying Animals’ Ancestral Knowledge (LINK)

Wait, So How Much of the Ocean Is Actually Fished? (LINK)

An Ancient Crosshatch May Be the Earliest Drawing Ever Found (LINK)

The mystery of learning...

From The Master Algorithm by Pedro Domingos:
If you’re a parent, the entire mystery of learning unfolds before your eyes in the first three years of your child’s life. A newborn baby can’t talk, walk, recognize objects, or even understand that an object continues to exist when the baby isn’t looking at it. But month after month, in steps large and small, by trial and error, great conceptual leaps, the child figures out how the world works, how people behave, how to communicate. By a child’s third birthday all this learning has coalesced into a stable self, a stream of consciousness that will continue throughout life. Older children and adults can time-travel–aka remember things past, but only so far back. If we could revisit ourselves as infants and toddlers and see the world again through those newborn eyes, much of what puzzles us about learning–even about existence itself–would suddenly seem obvious. But as it is, the greatest mystery in the universe is not how it begins or ends, or what infinitesimal threads it’s woven from. It’s what goes on in the small child’s mind–how a pound of gray jelly can grow into the seat of consciousness.

Tuesday, September 11, 2018

The best businesses during inflation...

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, the best businesses during inflation are usually the best — they’re the businesses that you buy once and then you don’t have to keep making capital investments subsequently.  
So...you do not face the problem of continuous reinvestment involving greater and greater dollars because of inflation.  
That’s one reason real estate, in general, is good during inflation. If you built your own house 55 years ago like Charlie did, or bought one 55 years ago like I did, it’s a one-time outlay and...you get an inflationary expansion in replacement capital without having to replace [it] yourself.  
And if you’ve got something that’s useful to someone else, it tends to be priced in terms of replacement value over time, and so you really get the inflationary kick.  
Now, if you’re in a business such as the utility business or the railroad business, it just keeps eating up more and more money, and your depreciation charges are inadequate and you’re kidding yourself as to your real economic profits.  
So, any business with heavy capital investment tends to be a poor business to be in in inflation and often it’s a poor business to be in generally.
And the business where you buy something once — a brand is a wonderful thing to own during inflation.
You know, See’s Candy built their brand many years ago. Now, we’ve had to nourish it as we’ve gone along, but the value of that brand increases during inflation, just as the value of, really, any strongly branded goods.
But as Munger points out, extremely high inflation is not something one should hope for:
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, yeah, but if the inflation ever goes completely out of control, you have no idea how it’s going to end up.  
If it weren’t for the Weimar inflation, we might never have had Adolf Hitler. It was the twosome of the great German inflation followed by the Great Depression that brought us Hitler. And think of the price that the world paid for that one.  
We don’t want inflation because it’s good for See’s Candy. (Laughter) 
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Related previous post: Warren Buffett’s Comments on Inflation

Monday, September 10, 2018

Chris Hadfield on getting ready to do his job, and getting better at life

The quote below is from Hadfield's May 2015 appearance on The James Altucher Show. While he was referring to the difficult job of being an astronaut and training for all of the things that can happen in space, this advice is applicable to gaining expertise in many fields:
So how do you get ready for that? What it all boils down to is an insatiable, permanent necessity for personal competence—to always become better. Because even if you completely master some part of it, some subtle thing is going to change.... All you can do is continually try and improve your understanding of how things work. 
...I think if you're not studying something at all times to improve your ability to do things, then I kind of ask: Why not? What's the other thing that you're doing that is more important than getting better at life?
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Related book: An Astronaut's Guide to Life on Earth: What Going to Space Taught Me About Ingenuity, Determination, and Being Prepared for Anything

Excerpt from the book:
Over the years, I’ve realized that in any new situation, whether it involves an elevator or a rocket ship, you will almost certainly be viewed in one of three ways. As a minus one: actively harmful, someone who creates problems. Or as a zero: your impact is neutral and doesn’t tip the balance one way or the other. Or you’ll be seen as a plus one: someone who actively adds value. Everyone wants to be a plus one, of course. But proclaiming your plus-oneness at the outset almost guarantees you'll be perceived as a minus one, regardless of the skills you bring to the table or how you actually perform. This might seem self-evident, but it can't be, because so many people do it. 
...When you have some skills but don't fully understand your environment, there is no way you can be a plus one. At best, you can be a zero. But a zero isn't a bad thing to be. You're competent enough not to create problems or make more work for everyone else. And you have to be competent, and prove to others that you are, before you can be extraordinary. There are no shortcuts, unfortunately. 
Even later, when you do understand the environment and can make an outstanding contribution, there's considerable wisdom in practicing humility. If you really are a plus one, people will notice—and they're even more likely to give you credit for it if you're not trying to rub their noses in your greatness.


[H/T Tamas]

Friday, September 7, 2018

Not making a decision while tired

I've been updating a short checklist that I created to use as the last thing I look at before making an investment in something. These kinds of checklists are best kept short, and mine currently consists of 12 items. There is one question I've added that may seem obvious, but that I decided is best to physically make myself confirm before investing:
  • Are you tired?
This was inspired by re-reading a Charlie Munger comment:
"We didn’t know, when we started out, this modern psychological evidence to the effect that you shouldn’t make a lot of important decisions when you’re tired and that making a lot of difficult decisions is tiring....  I cannot remember an important decision that Warren has made when he was tired."
Obvious? Probably. But its simplicity doesn't make it any less important.

Thursday, September 6, 2018

Charlie Munger on ignorance removal

From the 2014 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting:
There’s no question about the fact that [See's Candies] main contribution to Berkshire was ignorance removal. And it’s not the only big contributor to ignorance removal.  
If it weren’t for the fact we were so good at removing our ignorance, step by step, Berkshire would be practically nothing today.  
What we knew originally wasn’t enough. We were pretty damn stupid when we bought See’s. We were just barely smart enough to buy it. 
And if there’s any secret to Berkshire, it’s the fact that we’re pretty good at ignorance removal. 
And then later in that meeting, he mentions another useful habit to cultivate:
I spoke earlier about the desirability of removing your ignorance piece by piece, and there’s another trick, which is scrambling out of your mistakes. And we’ve been quite good at both, and it’s enormously useful. 
Imagine Berkshire, a textile mill sure to go broke because power costs in New England were about twice as high as they were in TVA country, a sure-to-fail department store, and a trading stamp sure to be forced out of business by change in mode. Out of that comes Berkshire Hathaway. Talk about scrambling out of mistakes, I think of what we might have done if we’d had a better start. (Laughter) 


Tuesday, September 4, 2018

An Update and The Future of this Blog

Thank you all so much for your interest in Value Investing World. As a couple of astute readers of this blog have guessed, my day job is about to change. The fund I co-manage at Boyles is being closed, as more than one of you have figured out through the ownership filings we’ve been required to make as we’ve sold some of the micro-cap stocks we held in our portfolio.

I’m still in the process of figuring out exactly what I’ll be doing next, but my hope is to keep the blog going in the same fashion and format. Depending on what I end up doing for work, maybe the blog will contain more notes on companies and ideas, and possibly fewer posts overall; but I think the most likely outcome will be to have no change whatsoever. And if you have any thoughts or suggestions, feel free to email me at ValueInvestingWorld@gmail.com. Note: During the next couple of weeks, my internet access will be limited. I have scheduled some quotes and other items in advance, but the links compilation posts will be few and far between during that time, and I will be especially slow responding to emails.

As regular readers will know, I’m a big fan of the philosophy of stoicism and the importance it places on focusing on the things one can control—and being fairly indifferent to the things outside of one’s control. I’m also a believer in Charlie Munger’s advice that “the best way to get what you want is to deserve what you want.” So I’ve tried to focus my process and education on 1) becoming a better investor; and 2) being a more multi-disciplinary thinker. Both of those are attainable through my own efforts. This blog and many of you whom I’ve met through the blog (either in person or digitally) have helped me progress in those areas. Thank you, again!

While I don’t know exactly how the next few months will unfold, I’ll end this post with the words from Marcus Aurelius that have been a guide not only for me, but also for many others throughout history: “The impediment to action advances action. What stands in the way becomes the way.”

Monday, September 3, 2018

Links

"It just stands to reason that you copy, very much, the people that you do look up to, and particularly if you do it at an early enough age. So I think, if you can influence the...role models of a 5-year-old or an 8-year-old or a 10-year-old...it’s going to have a huge impact. And of course, everybody, virtually, starts out with their initial models being their parents. So they are the ones that are going to have a huge effect on them. And if that parent turns out to be a great model, I think it’s going to be a huge plus for the child. I think that it beats a whole lot of other things in life to have the right models around.... Even as I’ve gotten older, I’ve picked up a few more. And it influences your behavior. I’m convinced of that.... And it’s not complicated. Nothing could be more simple than to try and figure out what you find admirable and then decide...that the person you really would like to admire is yourself. And the only way you’re going to do it is take on the qualities of other people you admire." --Warren Buffett

"There is no reason, also, to look only for living models. The eminent dead are, in the nature of things, some of the best models around. And, if a model is all you want, you’re really better off not limiting yourself to the living. Some of the very best models have been dead for a long time." --Charlie Munger

Warren Buffett's interview on Bloomberg last week (video) (LINK)

John Malone: 'I told Warren Buffett not to invest in Bill Gates before Microsoft went public' [H/T Linc] (LINK)

A Conversation with Paul Graham - Moderated by Geoff Ralston (video) (LINK)

The Next Financial Crisis Lurks Underground - by Bethany McLean (LINK)
Related book: Saudi America: The Truth About Fracking and How It's Changing the World
How the Chinese business elite think of America... (via John Hempton) (LINK)

The Absolute Return Letter, September 2018: Private Credit Demystified (LINK)

Tesla, software and disruption - by Benedict Evans (LINK)

All Things Sales! 16 Mini-Lessons for Startup Founders (LINK)

“Cheesy Dad” Readings and Reflections - by Chris Pavese (LINK)

Friday, August 31, 2018

Links

Two Haslams share a stage, offering lessons on business, stories of creating Pilot Flying J [H/T Linc] (LINK) [The short video clip with the Buffett story is also HERE.]

Grant’s Podcast: Current yield (LINK)

What Follows the End of History? Identity Politics [H/T @JonHaidt] (LINK)
Related book: Identity: The Demand for Dignity and the Politics of Resentment - by Francis Fukuyama
Crispr Halted Muscular Dystrophy in Dogs. Are Humans Next? [H/T Linc] (LINK)

The Very Hot, Very Hungry Caterpillar - by Ed Yong (LINK)

***

Some interesting comments from Warren Buffett at the Berkshire annual meeting in 2000, given that Berkshire today has as much capital as they do invested in a railroad and airline stocks:
Historically, the transportation field, I mean, it’s been a terrible place to have money, and, whether it’s been in airlines or in the rails. If you — we’ve mentioned Value Line from here — from time to time. 
If you go to the rail transportation section and just run your eye across on the revenues and look at the capital investment, the amount of capital required to produce incremental revenues is just — is horrible. 
And on the other hand, there’s not much alternative here in the game to doing that. So there — many railroads will spend hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars. And it will not move the top line hardly at all. The ones where the top line has changed is where there’s been acquisitions or mergers. 
Airlines, you’ll see just the opposite. You’ll see this great movement in the top line, but again, a disastrous amount of capital investment and very little in the way of returns. So, it hasn’t been a great field. 
Most fields that require heavy capital investment, most of the time, they don’t turn out very well over time. There are plenty of exceptions to that. 
But if you find a business that has to keep adding up huge sums of money every year, there always will be a reason why they’re doing it. But the net result, after five or 10 or 20 years usually isn’t very good. 

Thursday, August 30, 2018

Links

Part 3 of the Charlie Munger & Li Lu Interview [also added to yesterday's post] (LINK)

Li Lu's Discussion of Modernization (2014) (LINK)

Warren Buffett on CNBC (FULL VIDEO, Transcript)

oGoLead Leadership Podcast with David Novak: Tom Murphy, Chairman & CEO Emeritus of Capital Cities/ABC, Inc. (LINK)

Do You Really Save 15% with GEICO? (LINK)

As Sears Withers, Its Former Stores Fuel a New Fortune [H/T Linc] (LINK)

The Curse of the Rockefellers (LINK)

The Bottom-Up Economist Report: Second Quarter 2018 (LINK)

Mark Yusko's Q2 2018 Market Review and Outlook letter (LINK)

Argentina's central bank hikes rates to 60% as the currency collapses (LINK)

Crazy/Genius Podcast: Should We Dim the Skies to Save the World? (LINK)

American Innovations Podcast: Thinking Machines | Artificial Intelligence | 1 (LINK)

Carina’s star-spangled chaos - by Phil Plait  (LINK)

Book of the day: Turning Oil Into Salt: Energy Independence Through Fuel Choice

Wednesday, August 29, 2018

Charlie Munger & Li Lu Interview by Weekly in Stocks (Parts 1, 2 & 3)


Link to Part 1


Link to Part 2


Link to Part 3

Links

"We generally believe you can just see anything in markets. I mean, it's just extraordinary what happens in markets over time. It gets sorted out eventually, but we have seen companies sell for tens of billion dollars that are worthless. And at times, we have seen things sell for...literally 20 percent or 25 percent of what they were worth. So we have seen and will continue to see everything. It’s just the nature of markets. They produce wild, wild things over time. And the trick is, occasionally, to take advantage of one of those wild things and not to get carried away when other wild things happen because the wild things create their own truth for a while." --Warren Buffett (2000)

Links to some old Ben Graham articles (via Twitter) [H/T @jasonzweigwsj] (LINK)

Mohnish Pabrai interview in The Economic Times (LINK)
The checklist that I created came out of looking at mistakes made by great investors. The single biggest reason why investments don’t work out for investors is leverage. The second biggest reason has to do with a misunderstanding of the comparative advantage of the moat. Then you get to management and ownership and other issues. You might get to environmental or unions and labour and that sort of things. The three really big things are — leverage, moats and management, probably in that order. 
More than money, Berkshire’s Todd Combs coming on Paytm board is the best outcome (LINK)

The Race of Our Lives Revisited (in a nutshell) - Jeremy Grantham (LINK)
In this abridged version of “The Race of Our Lives Revisited” Jeremy Grantham provides a detailed discussion of the long-term, slow-burning problems that threaten us today: climate change, population growth, increasing environmental toxicity.
Citron Research's short thesis on Wayfair (LINK)

Akimbo Podcast: Ignore sunk costs (LINK)

Radiolab Podcast: Baby Blue Blood Drive (LINK)

Does Our Cultural Obsession With Safety Spell the Downfall of Democracy? (LINK)

Fred Rogers: a quiet psychological revolution in children’s television (LINK)
Related book: The Good Neighbor: The Life and Work of Fred Rogers  
Related documentary: Won't You Be My Neighbor?