Showing posts with label John Bogle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label John Bogle. Show all posts

Monday, April 13, 2020

Links

A Primer on Reading Annual Reports [H/T @CrowdedTradeCap] (LINK)

Bob Iger Thought He Was Leaving on Top. Now, He’s Fighting for Disney’s Life. (LINK)

Steve Bregman on Debt Debasement (audio) (LINK)

Mohnish Pabrai: A Bull's View in a Virus Shop (LINK)

Paul Black Investor Update March 2020 (video) [H/T @mastersinvest] (LINK)

Learning from Charles Schwab (LINK)

Federal Reserve has encouraged moral hazard on a grand scale - by Jonathan Tepper ($) (LINK)

Value Hive Podcast: 20: Survival of The Permanent w/ Brent Beshore, Permanent Equity (LINK)

Venture Stories Podcast: Nir Eyal on His New Book, “Indistractable: How to Control Your Attention and Choose Your Life” (LINK)

The Great Influenza of 1918 (LINK)
Related book: The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History
Standing on the Shoulders of Giants: The Key to Innovation (LINK)

How Anthony Fauci Became America’s Doctor (LINK)

Wednesday, January 30, 2019

Links

"Intrinsic value is terribly important and very fuzzy, and we do our best to work...in the kind of businesses where we think that...our predictions are of a fairly highly probable nature. And that leaves out all kinds of companies." --Warren Buffett (2003)

"We have this simple, old-fashioned discipline, which Warren likens to Ted Williams waiting for a fat pitch. I don’t know about Warren, but if you said to me, 'Charlie, you can go into the business of managing money the way other people do, where you’re measured against indexes and you got consultants choosing consultants that are reviewing you to committees,' I would just hate it. I would regard it as being put into shackles. And shackles where the very system was preventing me from delivering value.... The general system for money management requires people to pretend that they can do something that they can’t do, and to pretend to like it when they really don’t." --Charlie Munger (2003)

Tributes to Jack Bogle (1929-2019) [H/T @jasonzweigwsj] (LINK)
We’ve collected the following tributes to Jack Bogle from among the authors who contribute to Advisor Perspectives and other prominent individuals in the investment industry.
Ben Graham: Just Plain Lucky? - by Vishal Khandelwal (LINK)

Why stock-plunges happen so often in Hong Kong (LINK) [Related video: High Table Talk with Mr David Webb]

The Vergecast (podcast): Fixing America’s internet, with Susan Crawford (LINK)
Related book: Fiber: The Coming Tech Revolution―and Why America Might Miss It
A Starfish-Killing Disease Is Remaking the Oceans - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Friday, January 25, 2019

Links

"To the extent that the method of estimating future cash flow requires projections, I would say that projections, while they’re logically required by the circumstances, on average, do more harm than good in America. Most of them are put together by people who have an interest in a particular outcome. And the subconscious bias that goes into the process, and its apparent precision makes it...fatuous, or dishonorable, or foolish, or what have you. Mark Twain used to say a mine is a hole in the ground owned by a liar. And a projection prepared in America by anybody with a commission, or an executive trying to justify a particular course of action, will frequently be a lie. It’s not a deliberate lie, in most cases. The man has gotten to believe it himself. And that’s the worst kind.... Projections are to be handled with great care, particular when somebody has an interest in misleading you." --Charlie Munger (1995)

"Charlie and I, I think it’s fair to say, we’ve never looked at a projection in connection with either a security we’ve bought or a business we’ve bought. We’ve had them offered to us in great quantities.... We voluntarily turn them away when people try to thrust them upon us.... It’s a ritual that managers go through to justify doing what they wanted to do in the first place, in about nine cases out of ten." --Warren Buffett (1995)

"We don’t give a hoot about anybody’s projections. We don’t even want to hear about them, in terms of what they’re going to do in the future. We’ve never found any value in anything like that." --Warren Buffett (2003)

"Usually, I don’t use formal projections. I don’t let people do them for me because I don’t like throwing up on the desk (laughter), but I see them made in a very foolish way all the time, and many people believe in them, no matter how foolish they are. It’s an effective sales technique in America to put a foolish projection on a desk." --Charlie Munger (“Academic Economics: Strengths and Faults After Considering Interdisciplinary Needs”)

***

When Charlie Munger Calls, Listen and Learn ($) (LINK)
An unexpected phone call from Charlie Munger says at least as much about him as it does about you. 
Jacob Taylor, chief executive of Farnam Street Investments, a tiny asset-management firm in Folsom, Calif., was stunned when Mr. Munger—Warren Buffett’s business partner at Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and one of Mr. Taylor’s heroes—called him late last month. 
All investors should strive to match Mr. Munger’s focus, intensity and insatiable appetite for reading. He turned 95 on Jan. 1. 
Mr. Munger was calling to say that he had read the novel Mr. Taylor was about to self-publish, “The Rebel Allocator.” He was “surprisingly engaged,” recalls Mr. Taylor, 37, who had sent the book to Mr. Munger without much hope the great investor would read it. Mr. Munger proceeded to reel off roughly 20 minutes of unsolicited, detailed advice, mostly about plot and character.
GMO Quarterly Letter (LINK)
2018 was a lousy year for almost all assets, with no major asset class around the world able to keep pace with U.S. Treasury Bills. The poor returns have a silver lining, however, in that today a number of asset classes are priced at levels that embody much more achievable expectations and decent long-term returns. In general, it looks to be the best opportunity set we have seen since 2009. This means it is reasonably straightforward to put together a diversified portfolio priced to achieve something close to +5% real return. But as U.S. equities and nominal government bonds are not among the appealing assets, we believe the portfolio you should own today looks more or less nothing like a traditional 60% stock/40% bond portfolio. In particular, liquid alternatives now look poised to deliver attractive real returns and outperform developed equity markets in the coming years.
Jack Bogle: Crusader for Investment Professionalism (LINK)

Advertising is in crisis, but it's not because it doesn't work - by Rory Sutherland (LINK)

How To Be Successful - by Sam Altman (LINK)

Howard Schultz: Leading a Values-Based Business | MasterClass | Official Trailer [H/T @Sanjay__Bakshi] (LINK) [More info on the class HERE. Bob Woodward's class on investigative journalism would also probably be a useful class for the fundamental, value investor.]

Five Good Questions Podcast: Brent Beshore - The Messy Marketplace (LINK)

Exponent Podcast: Zeros All the Way Down (LINK)

TED Talk: A powerful way to unleash your natural creativity | Tim Harford (LINK)

One of Earth’s oldest rocks may have been found… on the Moon - by Phil Plait (LINK)

When Modern Men Throw Ancient Weapons - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Saturday, January 19, 2019

Links

"The unthinkable can always happen, and you have to run your affairs accordingly." --Peter Bernstein

On Jack Bogle (1929-2019) - by Jason Zweig (LINK)

A Lifetime of Systems Thinking - by Russell Ackoff (1999) [H/T @pcordway] (LINK)

Clayton Christensen: After 40 years studying innovation, here is what I have learned (LINK)

Exponent Podcast: Inverted Pyramids (LINK)

The Insulin Wars [H/T @Atul_Gawande] (LINK)

GMO White Paper: Is the U.S. Stock Market Bubble Bursting? A New Model Suggests 'Yes' (LINK)
  • A new model suggests that from early 2017 through much of 2018, the U.S. stock market was a bubble.
  • Driven by negative changes in sentiment, the bubble started to deflate in the fourth quarter of 2018, in spite of strong fundamentals.
  • Our advice, consistent with our portfolio positions established in Q1 2018 – as usual, we were early – is to own as little U.S. equity as your career risk allows.
Questions we hear a lot - by John Hussman (LINK) [And if you're not one to read the economic analysis, the talk by Martin Luther King Jr., "Loving Your Enemies," attached to the end is always a worthwhile read.]

Thursday, January 17, 2019

RIP Jack Bogle

"If a statue is ever erected to honor the person who has done the most for American investors, the handsdown choice should be Jack Bogle.... In his early years, Jack was frequently mocked by the investment-management industry. Today, however, he has the satisfaction of knowing that he helped millions of investors realize far better returns on their savings than they otherwise would have earned. He is a hero to them and to me. --Warren Buffett (2016 Annual Letter)

John Bogle, who founded Vanguard and revolutionized retirement savings, dies at 89 (LINK)

Jason Zweig recounts Mr. Bogle's long and influential career (video) (LINK)

***

Back when I was first reading Jack Bogle's book Enough, I emailed him the following quote from Seneca that I thought was a perfect compliment to the things he had written about in his book: 
"What difference does it make how much there is laid away in a man's safe or in his barns, how many head of stock he grazes or how much capital he puts out at interest, if he is always after what is another's and only counts what he has yet to get, never what he has already. You ask what is the proper limit to a person's wealth? First, having what is essential, and second, having what is enough." 
Mr. Bogle was kind enough to both respond to my email as well as pass along some words of encouragement to a young man still early on in his investment career. A short while later, I came across another quote that reminded me of his book, and again passed it along. Though not quite as fitting as the one above, it was a longer quote from Arthur Schopenhauer:
"It is difficult, if not impossible, to define the limits which reason should impose on the desire for wealth; for there is no absolute or definite amount of wealth which will satisfy a man. The amount is always relative, that is to say, just so much as will maintain the proportion between what he wants and what he gets; for to measure a man's happiness only by what he gets, and not also by what he expects to get, is as futile as to try and express a fraction which shall have a numerator but no denominator. A man never feels the loss of things which it never occurs to him to ask for; he is just as happy without them; whilst another, who may have a hundred times as much, feels miserable because he has not got the one thing he wants. In fact, here too, every man has an horizon of his own, and he will expect as much as he thinks it is possible for him to get. If an object within his horizon looks as though he could confidently reckon on getting it, he is happy; but if difficulties come in the way, he is miserable. What lies beyond his horizon has no effect at all upon him. So it is that the vast possessions of the rich do not agitate the poor, and conversely, that a wealthy man is not consoled by all his wealth for the failure of his hopes. Riches, one may say, are like sea-water; the more you drink the thirstier you become; and the same is true of fame."
He once again replied with kindness and, as he put it, delight that those of us who digested his work made interesting connections to other things. And as I look back at the quotes above, they once again seem fitting ways to describe a great man that gave far more than he took from the world, and was always happy with having enough.

***

And since it's only fitting to let Mr. Bogle have the last word, let's go back to the inaugural issue of CFA Magazine (Jan/Feb 2003). Charley Ellis moderated a panel of investing greats (Bernstein, Bogle, Brinson, Buffett, LeBaron, Neff, and Templeton), and the final question he asked the panel was: "Given the option to say whatever you would like to say that, 30 years from now, bright, young people would be sitting down and reading, saying 'Gee, I'm glad I was able to read this particular thought,' what would that thought be?" Bogle's reply, which was the last among the panel members: 
"First, put the client’s interest ahead of your own, and, one day at a time, help to make this field of investing more of a profession and less of a business. Second, learn every day, but especially learn from the experiences of others. It’s cheaper! And third, never, never lose your idealism, no matter how rough your career might be, and never lose faith in your nation."

Friday, November 30, 2018

Links

"All investment is, is laying out some money now to get more money back in the future. Now, there’s two ways of looking at the getting the money back. One is from what the asset itself will produce. That’s investment. One is from what somebody else will pay you for it later on, irrespective of what the asset produces, and I call that speculation. So, if you are looking to the asset itself, you don’t care about the quote because the asset is going to produce the money for you." --Warren Buffett

Hard Choices: The importance of thoughtful deliberation—and its implications for the future of capitalism - by Seth Klarman [H/T Linc and Will] (LINK)

Bogle Sounds a Warning on Index Funds [H/T Will] (LINK)

Brookfield Pulls Multibillion-Dollar U.K. Deal as Brexit Uncertainty Bites [H/T @rationalwalk] (LINK)

China is underestimating its US$3 trillion dollar debt and this could trigger a financial crisis, says economist [H/T @jasonzweigwsj] (LINK)

The Miseducation of Sheryl Sandberg  (LINK)

David Rosenberg chats with Meb Faber (podcast) (LINK)

a16z Video: When Software Eats the Real (Estate) World (LINK)

Freakonomics Radio (podcast): Should America Be Run by … Trader Joe’s? (LINK)

Good news in the fight to stop one of the world’s oldest diseases - By Bill Gates (LINK)

George Church takes a more nuanced view than many scientists on the recently revealed gene editing of human babies (LINK)

The Insect Apocalypse Is Here: What does it mean for the rest of life on Earth? (LINK)

There’s a Spider That Makes Milk - by Ed Yong (LINK)

2.4-Million-Year-Old Stone Tools Turn Up in an Unexpected Place - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Book of the day (released this week): The Model Thinker: What You Need to Know to Make Data Work for You - by Scott E. Page

"Rationality resides in what you do, not in what you think or in what you "believe" (skin in the game).... Rationality is about survival." --Nassim Taleb, "Skin in the Game" [Related previous post: Filters, Beliefs, Survival and Crotchets]

Sunday, May 20, 2018

Links

"There is no doubt that in exchanging a self-centered for a selfless life we gain enormously in self-esteem. The vanity of the selfless, even those who practice humility, is boundless." --Eric Hoffer, 

TED Talk -- Yuval Noah Harari: Why fascism is so tempting — and how your data could power it (LINK)

“If I Were Wrong, What Would It Look Like?” - by Morgan Housel (LINK)

Jack Bogle’s Battle (LINK)

Business Lessons about Growth from Andrew Chen (Andreessen Horowitz) - by Tren Griffin (LINK)

Bitcoin’s energy use got studied, and you libertarian nerds look even worse than usual [H/T @AlexRubalcava] (LINK)

Making Sense of Mortgages: The Problem, and the Opportunity (LINK)

John Doerr on Recode Decode (podcast and transcript) (LINK)
Related book: Measure What Matters
***

"Ideally, we like to invest in growing companies with a sustainable competitive advantage and attractive economics in combination with a management team that will intelligently redeploy or redistribute excess capital. In a world where it is difficult to find good ideas, our style is to diligently and patiently search the world for fat pitches, and then swing on the rare opportunity when we think the odds are in our favor. When times are good, we hope to invest in ideas that can double over three years. Given that we are not favorably disposed to ‘cheating’ on either valuation or quality, when ideas are harder to come by, as they are now, we are more likely to have higher than average cash levels. " --Peter Kinney and Mark Landecker, Acacia Capital (April 2007)

Tuesday, October 10, 2017

Links

"I am satisfied, if every day I take away something from my vices and correct my faults. I have not arrived at perfect soundness of mind, indeed, I never shall arrive at it." -Seneca ("On the Happy Life")

"Be at war with your vices, at peace with your neighbors, and let every new year find you a better man." -Benjamin Franklin

Great notes from a July workshop given by Sanjay Bakshi (LINK)

An audience with Jack Bogle: 'Warren can get a little intoxicating' [H/T Linc] (LINK)

Income Investors: It’s OK to Be Sad, But Don’t Get Desperate - by Jason Zweig (LINK)

Sir Richard Branson talks to Tim Ferriss (podcast) (LINK)

The Final Episode of Patrick O'Shaughnessy's audio documentary on the world of blockchain and cryptocurrencies: Hash Power – Ep. 3 – Funding, Forking, and Our Creative Future (LINK)

Tim O'Reilly on EconTalk (podcast) (LINK)
Related book: WTF?: What's the Future and Why It's Up to Us
The Making of Richard Thaler's Economics Nobel [H/T Linc] (LINK)
Related book: Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics - by Richard Thaler
Edge #501: Richard Thaler Wins Nobel Prize in Economics (LINK) [A re-post of... Edge Master Class 2008: Richard Thaler, Sendhil Mullainathan, Daniel Kahneman - A Short Course in Behavioral Economics]

Wednesday, November 23, 2016

Links

Surprise! Warren Buffett turns out to be more prescient about stocks than politics - by  Carol J. Loomis (LINK)
...Buffett’s prediction concerned what magnitude of total returns—stock appreciation plus reinvested dividends—U.S. investors would reap in the 17 years that began as 1999 was moving to its close. Buffett made the prediction originally in July of that year in a speech he gave at an Allen & Co. conference; repeated it in several speeches over the next few months; and worked with this writer to turn the speeches into a Fortune article, “Mr. Buffett on the Stock Market,” that ran in our Nov. 22, 1999 issue. You will notice that today is precisely 17 years later. 
...Net of the trading and management costs that investors incur, he said—implying that these costs could strip investors of a percentage point in their return—he predicted they might realize annual returns in the 17-year period from late 1999 to late 2016 that would be a so-so 6%. 
Today, with the 17 years having passed, what is the answer? 
First of all, be reminded that the stock market—as it is presented by the Dow and Standard & Poor’s indices, for example—does not deal in “net” returns. What you monitor on your computer screens are gross returns, before any trading and management costs are deducted. 
But the record shows that the period’s gross returns are anemic enough to confirm Buffett’s general accuracy. From mid-November, 1999, to last Friday’s trading day, the annualized total return to investors from the Dow Industrials was 5.9%.
Q&A With Jack Bogle: ‘We’re in the Middle of a Revolution’ (LINK)

Ackman Admits Mistake, but Chipotle Bet Could Be Another [H/T @HurriCap] (LINK)

Ed Yong "I Contain Multitudes" | Talks at Google (LINK)
Related book: I Contain Multitudes: The Microbes Within Us and a Grander View of Life
David Macaulay: "The Way Things Work Now" | Talks at Google (LINK)
Related book: The Way Things Work Now
Mars Is Going Through a Bit of a Dry Spell. How Do We Know? Rusty Meteorites. (LINK)

These Web-Footed Monkeys Are Built For Swimming (video) (LINK)

Friday, July 8, 2016

Links

2003 CFA Magazine article (Inaugural Issue): Living Legends [Bernstein, Bogle, Brinson, Buffett, LeBaron, Neff, and Templeton] [H/T Barry Ritholtz] (LINK)

Benjamin Graham on Financial Advisors (LINK)

Best's Review Article about Ajit Jain [H/T Linc] (LINK)

Buffett’s Gen Re Turns to Rival for Broker Relationships [H/T Linc] (LINK)

Why Banks Aren’t Giving You a 3%, 30-Year Mortgage…Yet (LINK)
Government bond yields have plummeted this week, but mortgage rates haven’t fallen so fast. 
After plumbing record lows earlier this week, the 10-year yield closed at 1.387% on Thursday. The national average for a 30-year, fixed-rate conforming mortgage was 3.41%, according to the latest data from Freddie Mac released Thursday. The difference or spread between the two, at 2.02 percentage points, has risen in recent weeks and is at one of its widest levels since mid-2012. 
...Indeed, if the difference between the 30-year mortgage rate and the 10-year Treasury yield were at its average level for the previous 10 years, the average mortgage would be 3.17%. Mortgage rates key off the 10-year Treasury because most homeowners tend to move within around 10 years, repaying their loans in the process.

Even so, borrowers are doing well. Rates around 3.5% are historically low. And the fact that the national average has dipped decisively below 3.5% may spur even more borrowing activity. A range of average rates between 3.6% and 4% has occurred many times for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages since 2012, but they fell below 3.5% for only brief periods; the record low of 3.31% was hit in November 2012.
Groundhog's Shadow and the Cost of Fear: A Case for the Mounting Bubble in Defensive Stocks (LINK)

How Accounting Standards Went Insane: It Didn’t Start with IFRS Convergence (LINK)

Crazy - A Story of Debt, by Grant Williams (video) (LINK)
This is a story about debt – 2008 was the crystallization of that, the years since have been the denial of it, and the years to come will be the resolution. Grant Williams, founder & publisher of the ‘Things That Make You Go Hmmm...’ research service, and co-founder of Real Vision TV, brings us an eye-opening presentation titled Crazy, where he puts into perspective the extraordinary levels of global debt and unprecedented monetary policy, and reminds us that the many factors that led to the ‘08 crisis are still very much present.
U.S. Regulator Bans Theranos CEO Elizabeth Holmes From Operating Labs for Two Years (LINK)
U.S. Federal health regulators dealt a major blow to Theranos Inc., banning founder Elizabeth Holmes from operating a blood-testing laboratory for at least two years and yanking regulatory approval for its California lab. 
The Silicon Valley company announced the sanctions, by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, in a news release late Thursday night. The company can appeal the ruling. 
The sanctions, which include an unspecified monetary penalty, cap eight months of public scrutiny that began in October when The Wall Street Journal raised questions about the company’s ability to perform a wide variety of blood tests with just a few drops of blood. Theranos once was a leading light in the technology boom, with the private company valued at $9 billion in 2014.
Cool Tools Podcast - Show 058: Tim Ferriss (LINK)

Friday, April 10, 2015

Links

Baidu CEO Robin Li interviews Bill Gates and Elon Musk at the Boao Forum, March 29 2015 (video...but not the best audio) (LINK)

Morgan Housel interviews Michael Lewis [H/T Abnormal Returns] (LINK)

'Great Debate': Realist Bogle vs optimist Grant [H/T Will] (LINK)

Notes from the book Strangers to Ourselves (LINK)

a16z Podcast: Cyber Security’s Painful Prominence and Why There is No Turning Back [H/T Abnormal Returns] (LINK)

Here's What It Looks Like When A Startup Wins Big at Y Combinator [H/T @maxolson] (LINK)

Book of the day: Four Fish: The Future of the Last Wild Food

Thursday, March 12, 2015

Links

Grant's Interest Rate Observer - February 28, 2003: Emulate Henry Singleton (LINK)
Related link [H/T Bill]: Leon Cooperman's presentation on Henry Singleton
Is There a Next Jack Bogle? Not If You Ask Jack Bogle (LINK)

Video: Buffett Farms in Nebraska [H/T Will] (LINK)

Presentation from Jeetay Investments: Moats and Millions (LINK)

How arthropods got their legs (LINK)

Book of the day (courtesy of this Richard Dawkins tweet: "If you want truth about Alan Turing, ignore The Imitation Game. The definitive biography is The Enigma by the mathematician Andrew Hodges."): Alan Turing: The Enigma (It also appears to be on Audible for just $5.95 right now. If you're not an Audible member yet, you can get a free trial and two free books, which you get to keep even if you cancel, by going HERE.)

Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Links

Howard Marks of Oaktree on the Criteria for Long-Term Success in Investing (video) (LINK)

Berkshire Hathaway 13F: Buys Deere; Sells Exxon (LINK)

Jack Bogle's success principles to live by [H/T Matt] (LINK)

Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2015 [H/T Meb Faber] (LINK)

Andrew Haldane: Growing, fast and slow (LINK)

Andrew Smithers: Fall in US capital efficiency is linked to research spending (LINK)

I may get out of US stocks: Nobel-winner Shiller (LINK) [The 3rd edition of Irrational Exuberance was also released a few weeks ago.]
Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller told CNBC on Wednesday he's thinking about shifting his personal money away from U.S. stocks. 
The Yale University professor said on "Squawk Box" he has about half his portfolio in stocks. "I'm thinking about getting out of the United States somewhat. Europe is so much cheaper." 
Citing moves he's already made, Shiller said, "What I have done is I've invested in Italy indexes, Spain index."
I posted some great quotes from Peter Bernstein on Twitter (HERE) from his 2004 conversation with Jason Zweig.

Some book recommendations from James Altucher's interview with Maria Popova: 






Tuesday, September 23, 2014

Asness, Bogle on Investment Strategy, Pension Funds

Link to video: Asness, Bogle on Investment Strategy, Pension Funds
Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Clifford Asness, managing and founding principal of AQR Capital Management, and John C. Bogle, founder of Vanguard Group Inc., talk about investment strategy, fund management and the outlook for pension funds. Bloomberg's Tom Keene moderates the discussion at the Bloomberg Markets Most Influential Summit in New York.
 ..................

Related books:

The Little Book of Common Sense Investing

The Clash of the Cultures: Investment vs. Speculation

Common Sense on Mutual Funds

Enough: True Measures of Money, Business, and Life

Friday, February 1, 2013

Monday, August 6, 2012

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Buffett and Bogle Urge Reforms to Address “Short-Termism”


Berkshire Hathaway Chairman Warren Buffett and Vanguard Group founder John Bogle have joined with 26 other prominent individuals to call for action to reduce “short-termism” in business and investment management. In an Aspen Institute statement released today and summarized in a Wall Street Journal article, the group called for more robust action to encourage longer term thinking among investors, boards, and executives.

-