Tuesday, July 16, 2019

Links

"The biggest thing, too, is to have something in the way you’re programmed so that you don’t ever do anything where you can lose a lot. I mean, our best ideas have not been better than other people’s best ideas, but we’ve never had a lot of things that pulled us way back. So we never went two steps forward and one step back. We probably went two steps forward and a fraction of a step back. But avoiding the catastrophes is a very important thing, and it will be important in the future." --Warren Buffett (2007)

The Agony of Hope Postponed, by a Value Investor (LINK)

Why 1925? - by Frank K. Martin (LINK)

Bill Nygren Market Commentary | 2Q19 (LINK)

Notes from Peter Thiel’s speech at the National Conservatism conference on July 14, 2019 [H/T @tylercowen] (LINK)

The Long View Podcast: James Montier: ‘How Do I Get Paid for Owning This Asset?’ [H/T Ritholtz] (LINK)

EdSurge On Air Podcast: Sal Khan: Test Prep Is ’the Last Thing We Want to Be’ (LINK)

A great summary of Matthew Walker's key ideas on sleep via excerpts from his podcast chat with Peter Attia (LINK)

Monday, July 15, 2019

Links

The Streaming Wars: Its Models, Surprises, and Remaining Opportunities - by Matthew Ball (LINK)

Star of the North: How Warren Buffett Bought the Best Industrial Firm in Israel [H/T Linc] (LINK)

William Nygren at the Ben Graham VI Conference (video) (LINK)

Joel Greenblatt at the Ben Graham VI Conference (video) (LINK)

Bob Robotti at the Ben Graham VI Conference (video) (LINK) [His Subsea 7 thesis starts around the 7-minute mark.]

40 Years Later, Lessons From the Rise and Quick Decline of the First ‘Killer App’ ($) (LINK)

Meditations On Meditation - by Blas Moros (LINK)

The Promise and Price of Cellular Therapies - by Siddhartha Mukherjee (LINK)

Not freezing yourself out...

Here's a reply from Buffett and Munger at the 2007 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting—to a question posed by Frank Martin (Question 24)—that I thought was worth posting separately here. Going back and (slowly) reading the transcripts with the benefit of hindsight has been a fantastic learning experience, and this excerpt is a great example. All three of them clearly saw trouble ahead given the excesses that existed. And given that belief—and the belief that timing the downturn and its magnitude with precision was nearly impossible—Buffett and Munger gave this advice about how to act: 
WARREN BUFFETT: ...We don’t have the faintest idea where the S&P will be in three years, or where the long-term bond will be in three years, but we do know which we would rather own on a 20-year basis. 
CHARLIE MUNGER: Warren, we’d also expect that the current scene will cause some real disruption, not too many years ahead. 
WARREN BUFFETT: That’s true, but if you go back a hundred years, you could almost say that in almost any period. You will get disruptions from time to time, and it’s very nice if you have a lot of cash then and you have the guts to do something with it.  
But predicting them or waiting around for them, that sort of thing, is not our game. And I mean, we bought $5 billion worth of equities in the first quarter, something like that. 
And...it would be a joke to even compare them to 1974 or a whole bunch of other periods. But we decided we would rather have them than cash, or we would rather have them than sit around and hope that things get a lot cheaper. 
We don’t spend a lot of time doing that. You can freeze yourself out indefinitely.  
So any time we find something that we think is intelligent to do, we just do it, and we hope we can do it big.

Saturday, July 13, 2019

Graham and Dodd quote

Exact Appraisal Impossible. Security analysis cannot presume to lay down general rules as to the “proper value” of any given common stock. Practically speaking, there is no such thing. The bases of value are too shifting to admit of any formulation that could claim to be even reasonably accurate. The whole idea of basing the value upon current earnings seems inherently absurd, since we know that the current earnings are constantly changing. And whether the multiplier should be ten or fifteen or thirty would seem at bottom a matter of purely arbitrary choice.  
But the stock market itself has no time for such scientific scruples. It must make its values first and find its reasons afterwards. Its position is much like that of a jury in a breach-of-promise suit; there is no sound way of measuring the values involved, and yet they must be measured somehow and a verdict rendered. Hence the prices of common stocks are not carefully thought out computations but the resultants of a welter of human reactions. The stock market is a voting machine rather than a weighing machine. It responds to factual data not directly but only as they affect the decisions of buyers and sellers.
..........

Interestingly, I can't seem to find a direct source for the more popular version of Graham's weighing machine quote. Warren Buffett has quoted it a couple of times, including in his 1987 letter
As Ben said: "In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine."
And in his 1993 letter
As Ben Graham said:  "In the short-run, the market is a voting machine - reflecting a voter-registration test that requires only money, not intelligence or emotional stability - but in the long-run, the market is a weighing machine."
And in the revised edition of The Intelligent Investor, Jason Zweig writes: 
As Graham liked to say, in the short run the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.
So I'd be curious if anyone knows where Graham used the weighing machine reference in regards to the long run. I don't see a direct source, but given the personal relationship Warren Buffett and others had with him—and considering that Buffett and Zweig used the words "said" and "say" in their references—it may have just been something he communicated verbally instead of in his written works. 

And on a related note, this Seth Klarman quote from the Preface to the Sixth Edition of Security Analysis is one that I also think is worth re-reading, and including with the others in this post:
As Graham has instructed, those who view the market as a weighing machine—a precise and efficient assessor of value—are part of the emotionally driven herd. Those who regard the market as a voting machine—a sentiment-driven popularity contest—will be well positioned to take proper advantage of the extremes of market sentiment.

Friday, July 12, 2019

Links

"When you’re trying to determine something like intrinsic value and margin of safety and so on, there’s no one easy method that could be simply mechanically applied by, say, a computer and make anybody who could punch the buttons rich. By definition, this is going to be a game which you play with multiple techniques and multiple models, and a lot of experience is very helpful. I don’t think you can become a great investor very rapidly any more than you could become a great bone tumor pathologist very rapidly. It takes some experience and that’s why it’s helpful to get a very early start.... We’ve never had any system for being able to make correct judgments on the values of all businesses. We throw almost all decisions into the too hard pile, and we just sift for a few decisions that we can make that are easy. And that’s a comparative process. And if you’re looking for an ability to correctly value all investments at all times, we can’t help you." --Charlie Munger (2007)

"We know how to step over one-foot bars. We don’t know how to jump over seven-foot bars. But we do know how to recognize, occasionally, what is a one-foot bar. And we know enough to stay away from the seven-foot bars, too." --Warren Buffett (2007)

On Writing - by Chris Pavese (LINK) [A big thanks to Jason Zweig for the writing series last year (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3), and to Chris for this summary of some key points. I've also added Chris' highlights of Jason's series to the end of my file on writing tips.]

Lucy Kellaway on turning 60 — and starting out afresh [H/T @jasonzweigwsj] (LINK)

Shopify and the Power of Platforms - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

The Amazon Arbitrage - by David Perell (LINK)

History of Public SaaS Returns and Valuations (LINK)

Six Reasons Why the Rebate Rule Failed—And What’s Next (LINK)

Value Investing with Legends: Taking a Top-Down Approach to Value Investing [with Jean-Marie Eveillard] (LINK)

Venture Stories Podcast: The Intersection of Financial Services and Marketplaces (LINK)

The James Altucher Show: 470 - Ramit Sethi: (Part 2) (LINK)
Related book: I Will Teach You to Be Rich
Revisionist History Podcast: Good Old Boys (LINK)

Stuff You Should Know Podcast: How Sloths Work (LINK)

No, You Can’t Make a Person Change - by Mark Manson (LINK)

Have You Seen Britain’s Tiny Potential Tree-Killer, the Adorable Spittlebug? (LINK)

A Groundbreaking Study Is Good News for Cats—And People - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Wednesday, July 10, 2019

Links

"Markets will do crazy things over time. When Charlie and I were at Salomon, they’d always talk to us about five sigma events or six sigma events, and that’s fine if you’re talking about flipping coins, but it doesn’t mean anything when you get human behavior involved. And people do things that — intelligent people do things — very intelligent, educated people do things — that are totally irrational, and they do them en masse. And you saw it in 1998. You saw it in 2002. And you’ll see it again." --Warren Buffett (2007)

"When people talk about sigmas, in terms of disaster potentialities in markets, they’re all crazy. They got the idea that bad results in markets would be predicted by Gaussian distributions. And the way they decided on that outcome was it made everything so easy to compute. They don’t follow Gaussian distributions. You have to believe in the Tooth Fairy to believe that." --Charlie Munger (2007)

Sub-Zero Yields Start Taking Hold in Europe's Junk-Bond Market (LINK)
Central bankers hinting at more monetary stimulus have depressed yields so much that even some European junk bonds trade at levels where investors have to pay for the privilege of holding them. 
The number of euro-denominated junk bonds trading with a negative yield -- a status until recently associated with ultra-safe sovereign borrowers -- now stands at 14, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. At the start of the year there were none.
Extreme Makeover: Rich Barton Has A $700 Million Stake In Zillow And Plans To Turn It Into A Home-Flipping Machine (LINK)

Inseparable Pairs - by Morgan Housel (LINK)

Dr. Fox - by Chris Pavese (LINK)

The James Altucher Show: 469 - Ramit Sethi: (Part 1) (LINK)
Related book: I Will Teach You to Be Rich
Money And Politics, Not Technology, Stand Between Us And Self-Driving Cars (LINK)

Daniel Ruiz talks about the auto sector (videos) (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5, Part 6)

AI Trained on Old Scientific Papers Makes Discoveries Humans Missed (LINK)

Venture Stories Podcast: Value Hacking and How To Avoid The Fake Growth Epidemic with Mike Maples (LINK)

What Ego Edges Out… - by Ryan Holiday (LINK)

You’ve probably never heard of CGIAR, but they are essential to feeding our future - by Bill Gates (LINK)

The Story of Humans and Neanderthals in Europe Is Being Rewritten - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Book of the day: Master of the Game - by Connie Bruck

Monday, July 8, 2019

Links

"It's not that I'm so smart, it's just that I stay with problems longer." --Albert Einstein

Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb Investor Day Transcript (May 2019) [H/T @BluegrassCap] (LINK)

John Hempton on The Jolly Swagman Podcast (LINK)

The Fireworks Over Share Buybacks Are Duds - by Jason Zweig ($) (LINK)
Share buybacks are as American as mom, apple pie and hot dogs on the Fourth of July. 
You’d never guess that given the many politicians on both the left and the right who say share repurchases are a newfangled, evil spawn of deregulation. 
Complexity Investing [H/T @BluegrassCap] (LINK)

My Questions About Negative-Yielding Debt - by Ben Carlson (LINK)

Marketing 3.0: How L’Oréal is embracing new marketing codes [H/T @ivan_brussels] (LINK)

Raoul Pal with a Twitter thread about some of the macro risks he sees in Europe (LINK)

Short Seller Targets Anta in Another Attack on China’s Biggest Sportswear Company ($) (LINK)
Carson Block’s firm takes aim at Anta in report titled ‘Turds in the Punchbowl’
Huawei staff share deep links with Chinese military, new study claims (LINK) [The paper is available HERE.]

Cyberweapons: A Real Worry - by Kevin Kelly (LINK)

Ben Thompson on The Talk Show With John Gruber Podcast (LINK)

Techmeme Ride Home Podcast: The Man Who Could Have Been Bill Gates? (Part 1, Part 2)

Robert Greene: "The Laws of Human Nature" | Talks at Google (LINK)

TED Talk: Grief and love in the animal kingdom | Barbara J. King (LINK)

Ancient life awakens amid thawing ice caps and permafrost [H/T Linc] (LINK)

Not a Human, but a Dancer - by Ed Yong (LINK)
What Snowball the parrot’s spontaneous moves teach us about ourselves

Sunday, July 7, 2019

Tandy Leather Factory, Inc. (TLF)

Here is a write-up I posted on MicroCapClub last month for those that may be interested in the micro-cap space. But first, please read the relevant disclosure below.

Disclosure: I am the portfolio manager at Sorfis Investments, LLC ("Sorfis") and the separate accounts that Sorfis manages own shares in Tandy Leather Factory, Inc. We may in the future buy or sell shares and are under no obligation to update our activities. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell a security. Please do your own research before making an investment decision.

**********

Tandy Leather Factory, Inc. (TLF)

Ticker: TLF
Price: $5.45
Shares outstanding: 8,934,024
Market cap: $48.7 million
Cash: $17.7 million
Debt: $0
Enterprise value: $31 million

Tandy Leather Factory is a specialty retailer of leather and leathercraft related items. Leather is ~40% of sales, hand tools ~20% of sales, and then there are a bunch of items that make up a single-digit percent of sales (dyes, finishes, glues, hardware, kits, stamping tools, etc.). They are basically a one-stop shop, and by far the largest player in this niche.

They categorize their customers into 2 types: Retail (~62% of sales) and Non-Retail (~38% of sales). Retail customers are individuals that come into their stores and are the end-user. Non-Retail customers are small businesses, youth organizations (Boy Scouts, 4-H, etc.), hospitals, military, distributors, re-sellers, and other similar, non-individual customers.

At the end of Q1, the company operated 117 stores, which are mostly in low-rent, strip mall type of locations. With the closure of the last U.K. store which was planned for this month, there will be 116 stores, with 115 in North America and 1 in Spain. A few more underperforming stores are also expected to be closed as leases expire in the near future.

In Q4 of last year, the company made both a management and strategy change. I think the previous management, which were long-time company veterans, did a good job over the years, but as is often the case, especially in the micro-cap world, put too much emphasis on top-line growth over economically profitable growth. And when cash flow slowed a bit, they started trying new things, such as starting a district manager program, continuing to operate the international stores (which lacked scale) that were unprofitable, as well as some other things which may have been reasonable experiments, but ended up being bad returns on investment (conference sponsorships, opening on Sundays, etc.). More expectations were also put on store managers to get out and try and sell non-retail/commercial business, which took them away from running their stores and providing great customer service to the retail customer base. 

The new CEO (Janet Carr) is focusing more on cash flow. So unprofitable stores will be closed when leases are up. The district manager program has been scrapped in favor zone managers, where 12 district managers have been replaced by 8 zone managers, reporting to 1 retail head manager instead of 2 regional managers. The store managers will also get to spend more time in their stores, as well as new incentives (pay based on cost of living, can now earn overtime, and incentive pay now based on sales, inventory turn, and labor costs instead of just store profit—so that more is in their control). The factory in Fort Worth, which produced about 10% of company product, has been reduced from about 25 employees down to 6, as some of the product it produced can be sourced from cheaper from elsewhere. 

But there is also money being spent on other things in 2019. They’ve hired a few people to focus solely on reaching out to commercial customers. This is potentially an area for growth, as we don’t really know how big this niche market is, but there is now a select, lower overhead group operating out of company headquarters focused on it, instead of having a lot of reliance on store managers to also perform much of those duties. They’ve also hired some other people in Fort Worth to professionalize other departments (marketing, merchandising, human resources, logistics), and are investing in technology that is long overdue to be updated (accounting and POS systems). 

I think there is a lot of uncertainly about how some of these changes may pan out, but I think there’s little downside buying at these levels. Tangible book value is around $6.30 per share the way I calculate it, which should be pretty close to liquidation value given that the inventory does not go bad quickly, and the inventory that was bad (e.g. faded leather that is hard to sell) or slow moving was written down when the new management team came in at the end of 2018 to provide a clean slate.

And while there is investment and some changes happening in 2019, I think—unless they really make some bad capital allocation decisions—the underlying earning power in 2018 should be the minimum level of earning power going forward. Given that I really do think the inventory write-down here can be counted as a one-off expense, and if we add that plus the portion of the previous management severance expensed during 2018, then the after-tax income at a normalized ~25% tax rate going forward would have been around $4.2 million last year. So besides buying it below tangible book value, we’re also getting about an 8.6% after-tax earnings yield (even without backing out excess cash), which I think is likely to grow in the years ahead.

Helping to protect the capital allocation going forward, we also have two former MicroCap Leadership Summit speakers on the board in Jeff Gramm and Brent Beshore. Jeff’s firm, Bandera, owns around 32% of the company. And another board member that runs an investment firm owns a little under 10% of the company.

While it’s often hard to know what actually causes a stock’s price to drop, and it could be coincidence, there is some probability that worries over the tariffs have caused concern among one or more investors with enough shares to move the price. As part of her immersion process into Tandy, Janet Carr mentioned visiting the company’s tanneries in Mexico during the company’s earnings call in March. And then in the week after President Trump’s tweet about the tariffs on Mexico, volume increased in the stock and many shares traded down just slightly above and below the $5 per share range. It may be a coincidence, but I thought it was worth noting, though the company actually gets a little less than 5% of its leather from Mexico (the sources are diversified, but South American countries seem to be the biggest source). And of the $17 million in imports last year, about $2 million were from China (Taiwan was the biggest at around $5 million).

Janet Carr also received restricted shares for joining the company and will receive some extra shares if operating income exceeds $12 million for 2 years in a row and $14 million in one year, which, given the company made $12 million in 2014 and had operating margins in the 12.4-14.4% range from 2012 to 2016, this is a reachable goal—which should certainly make buyers at today’s valuation happy if it is achieved.

Over the next few years, given the company still has a great competitive position and many of the inefficiencies of the past are in the process of being addressed, I think getting somewhere back in the 10-15% operating margin range is likely achievable, and probably within the next 2 or 3 years. So if we assume no growth and the closure of a few more stores, we’d be around $80 million of revenue which, at a 25% tax rate, gets us somewhere in the $6 million to $9 million range of after-tax income, which would give us a very good earnings yield on today’s sub-$50 million market cap, even before backing out excess cash. The company has also paid out a few special dividends in the past, and has been buying back stock. 

What would that cash flow be worth? It’s hard to predict multiples, and I prefer to mostly focus on my downside and earnings yield as a base return. But multiples of small, private businesses with $5 million+ in EBITDA that have a good competitive position, aren’t necessarily growth businesses, but also aren’t too capital intensive tend to sell for 6-8x EBITDA. So assuming a 12.5% operating margin on $80 million of sales, we get $10 million in operating earnings plus about $1.8 million in Depreciation and Amortization, so $11.8 in EBITDA. This would give us a valuation range of $70.8 million to $94.4 million. Assuming 9 million shares outstanding (i.e. buybacks roughly offset extra restricted shares), and $1 per share in excess cash (probably too low), we’d get a valuation somewhere in the $8.85 to $11.50 per share range. 

So in summary, there is uncertainty with how some of the changes will play out, but many of the operational things may be “unrecognized simplicities” that a fresh set of eyes can fix fairly quickly and return the business and operating margins back to where they were a few years ago. If margins get back there, I actually expect it to be with slightly lower gross margins, as the company focuses more on gross margin dollars instead of the percentage, but gains efficiency on the operating costs. All in all, I think it is a potential low downside investment with a reasonable path to doubling over the next 2 or 3 years.


Disclosure: Long



Friday, July 5, 2019

Links

"You don’t get paid for what’s already happened. You only get paid for what’s going to happen in the future. The past is only useful to you in the extent to which it gives you insights into the future, and sometimes the past doesn’t give you any insights into the future." --Warren Buffett (2007)

Being Ethical Is Long-term Greedy (LINK)

Markel Omaha brunch 2019 (video) (LINK)

Use Your Edge (LINK)

Why Things Break: Easy Causes of Business and Investing Failure (LINK)

Tim Wu Explains Why He Thinks Facebook Should Be Broken Up (LINK)
Related book: The Curse of Bigness
The Absolute Return Letter - July 2019: Energy Misconceptions (LINK)

A Return to Tiananmen - by Peter Zeihan (Part I: The Evolution of China, Part II: The Ending of Hong Kong)

Grant’s Current Yield Podcast: Middle Kingdom microscope (LINK)

Eric Cinnamond talks small cap, absolute return value investing with Tobias Carlisle on The Acquirers Podcast (LINK)

The James Altucher Show (podcast): 468 - David Epstein: Proof That It’s Never Too Late to Master Something New (LINK)
Related book: Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World
Revisionist History Podcast: Tempest in a Teacup (LINK)

American Innovations Podcast: Biologist Timothy Mousseau Can’t Stop Going Back To Chernobyl (LINK)

AI: Hype vs. Reality: Doctor AI (LINK)

Eric Topol on the Making Sense podcast (LINK)
Related book: Deep Medicine: How Artificial Intelligence Can Make Healthcare Human Again
(Re)Building the Good Society (video) (LINK)

Humanization, Dehumanization and Other Things Psychologists Do (video) (LINK)

Alex Honnold: A Soul Freed (video) (LINK)

Edge #545: Collaboration and the Evolution of Disciplines - A Talk By Robert Axelrod (LINK)
Related book: The Evolution of Cooperation
Why Waves of Seaweed Have Been Smothering Caribbean Beaches - by Ed Yong (LINK)

For Smart Animals, Octopuses Are Very Weird - by Ed Yong (LINK)


"We learn who we are in practice, not in theory." --Herminia Ibarra

Tuesday, July 2, 2019

Links

"What we really want to do is buy a business that’s a great business, which means that business is going to earn a high return on capital employed for a very long period of time, and where we think the management will treat us right. We don’t have to mark those down a lot when we find those factors. We’d love to find them when they’re selling at 40 cents on the dollar but we will buy those as much closer to a dollar on the dollar. We don’t like to pay a dollar on the dollar, but we’ll pay something close." --Warren Buffett (2007)

The Earnings Mirage: Why Corporate Profits are Overstated and What It Means for Investors (LINK)

The P/E Ratio: A User’s Manual [H/T @justvalue2] (LINK)

Availability-Misweighing Tendency (LINK)

Invest Like the Best Podcast: Bill Gurley – All Things Business and Investing (LINK)

The Knowledge Project Podcast: When Good Intentions Go Bad [with Jonathan Haidt] (LINK)

V > Λ: The Inverted Hierarchy (LINK)

The Stoic Magazine (Volume 1, Issue 7, July 2019) (LINK)

"This is the secret of cheerfulness—not depending on someone's help or expecting them to provide us tranquillity." --Marcus Aurelius

Monday, July 1, 2019

Links

"The whole investment world is more and more competitive, and if you talk about a real credit contraction, which gums up the whole civilization, no one would welcome that. And I would predict that if we ever had a really big credit contraction after a period like the one we’re in with all this excess, which is causing so much envy and resentment, that we would get legislation that most of us wouldn’t like." --Charlie Munger (2007)

Once Upon A Time In Tech (LINK) [H/T @AlexRubalcava, whose comments are also worth posting: "If you’re a software investor in private or public markets, you should check out this massive, comprehensive Seeking Alpha post, which is decidedly bearish. Naturally I don’t agree with everything in the post, but I appreciate its depth and rigor."]

a16z Podcast: Entrepreneurs, Then and Now [with Marc Andreessen, Ben Horowitz, and Stewart Butterfield] (LINK)

The Peter Attia Drive Podcast: #60 - Annie Duke (LINK)
Related book: Thinking in Bets
Radiolab Podcast - G: Relative Genius (LINK)
Albert Einstein asked that when he died, his body be cremated and his ashes be scattered in a secret location. He didn’t want his grave, or his body, becoming a shrine to his genius. When he passed away in the early morning hours of April, 18, 1955, his family knew his wishes. There was only one problem: the pathologist who did the autopsy had different plans.
Robert Caro Reflects on Robert Moses, L.B.J., and His Own Career in Nonfiction (Transcript, Podcast)
Related book: Working - by Robert A. Caro 
The Power of One Push-Up [H/T @Atul_Gawande] (LINK)
Several simple ways of measuring a person’s health might matter more than body weight.
Oregon’s Tsunami Risk: Between the Devil and the Deep Blue Sea - by Kathryn Schulz (LINK)

'Apollo 11': 8 moments from the documentary to watch for [H/T Linc] (LINK)

Book of the day [H/T @cristinagberta]: Grocery: The Buying and Selling of Food in America

Friday, June 28, 2019

Links

"The nature of the private equity activity is such that it really isn’t a bubble that bursts. Because if you’re running a large private equity fund and you lock up $20 billion for five or longer years and you buy businesses which are not priced daily, as a practical matter — even if you do a poor job, it’s going to take many years before the score is put up on the score board, and it takes many years, in most cases, for people to get out of the private equity fund even if they wished to earlier.... The investors can’t leave and the scorecard is lacking for a long time. What will slow down the activity — or what could slow down the activity — is if yields on junk bonds became much higher than yields on high-grade bonds. Right now the spread between yields on junk bonds and high-grade bonds is down to a very low level, and history has shown that periodically that spread widens quite dramatically. That will slow down the deals, but it won’t cause the investors to get their money back." --Warren Buffett (2007)

Jony Ive Leaves Apple, Ive’s Legacy, The Post-Ive Apple - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

Nudgestock 2019: Gerd Gigerenzer - Less is more: Decision making under uncertainty (video) [H/T @mikedariano] (LINK)
Related book: Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions
Oaktree Insights: Are There Still Winners in a Maturing Real Estate Cycle? (LINK)

Have Power, Respect Power, and Use Power Wisely - by Ray Dalio (LINK)

The Massive ‘Pig Ebola’ Epidemic Will Give Trump Big Leverage In His Trade Standoff With China - by J. Kyle Bass and Daniel Babich (LINK)

The Attention Diet - by Mark Manson (LINK)

The side of Paul Allen I wish more people knew about - by Bill Gates (LINK)

The Tim Ferriss Show (podcast): #375: Josh Waitzkin — How to Cram 2 Months of Learning into 1 Day (LINK)

Revisionist History Podcast: The Tortoise and the Hare (LINK)

Value Investing with Legends Podcast: Investing with Curiosity [with Christopher Davis] (LINK)

Five Good Questions Podcast: Gautam Baid - The Joys of Compounding (LINK)

EdgeCast (podcast): Barbara Tversky - The Geometry of Thought (LINK)
Related book: Mind in Motion: How Action Shapes Thought
Nature Podcast: Nature PastCast, June 1876 (LINK)
According to the fables of early explorers, the gorilla was a terrible, man-eating monster. It was also thought to be man’s closest relative in the animal kingdom. Naturally, scientists and the public alike wanted to see these fierce beasts for themselves. But in the mid-nineteenth century, as the evolution debate heated up, getting a live gorilla to Europe from Africa was extremely difficult. In 1876, the pages of Nature report the arrival in England of a young specimen.
North Atlantic Right Whales Are Dying in Horrific Ways - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Notes on the book Endurance: Shackleton’s Incredible Voyage by Alfred Lansing (LINK) [This book is also fantastic as an audiobook.]

 "Man has known for a long time that getting too enchanted with the trappings of power is counterproductive. The Roman emperor that’s most remembered as presiding over a period of great felicity was Marcus Aurelius, who was totally against the trappings of power even though he had them all — he had all the power. So I think all these things can be abused, and I think the best way to tackle a subject is to provide examples of contrary behavior." --Charlie Munger (2007)

Wednesday, June 26, 2019

Links

"I’ve probably had a hundred ideas of things that should be shorted, and I would say that almost every one of them have turned out to be correct. And I’ll bet if I’d tried to do it and make money out of it, I probably would have lost money, I would have had no fun, and the opportunity cost, as Charlie said, would have been enormous. Because if somebody’s running something that’s semi-fraudulent, they’re probably pretty good at it and they’re working full time at it and they’ve succeeded for a while and they may keep succeeding. And if they succeed and you go in at X and it goes to 5X, you know, all you’re hoping after a while it that it goes back to X again or something of the sort. It’s a very tough psychological game to play. Few people may be well-suited for it. I would never put any money with a short fund, but not because I would think it would be ethically wrong. I just think they’re unlikely to make money." --Warren Buffett (2006)

Broyhill Asset Management's ValueX Vail presentation on KAR Auction Services (LINK)

My View On: Student Debt Forgiveness - by Cullen Roche (LINK)

The American Retreat, Part I: Oil - by Peter Zeihan (LINK)

Crazy/Genius Podcast: How Has Netflix Changed Entertainment? (LINK)

a16z Podcast: Stories from the Frontlines of Synthetic Fraud (LINK)

"It is one thing to set up a mathematical model that appears to explain everything. But when we face the struggle of daily life, of constant trial and error, the ambiguity of the facts as well as the power of the human heartbeat can obliterate the model in short order." --Peter L. Bernstein (Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk)

Tuesday, June 25, 2019

Links

"For every asset, there’s a price that’s low enough to make the risk palatable . . . Low price is the remedy for everything." --Howard Marks [Source]

Bill Gates speaks with David Rubenstein (video) [H/T Will] (LINK)

Dara Khosrowshahi speaks with David Rubenstein (video) (LINK)

There And Back Again: A Value Investor’s Tale (LINK)

Facebook, Libra, and the Long Game - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

Lessons From the VC Who's Seen It All Before (LINK)

Invest Like the Best Podcast: Jesse Livermore – The Search for the Truth with the Anonymous Master (LINK)

Acquired Podcast: The Slack DPO (LINK)

Monarch Butterflies Reared in Captivity Lack a Crucial Ability - by Ed Yong (LINK)

The Last of Its Kind - by Ed Yong (LINK)
The biologist David Sischo has a tragic assignment: keeping vigil over a species’ sole survivor, then marking its extinction in real time.

Monday, June 24, 2019

Links

"A strategic buyer is some guy that pays too much. And he wants to justify it, so he says it’s strategic. I have never understood being a strategic buyer. Every time somebody calls me up and says, 'We think, maybe, you’re the logical strategic buyer for that,' I hang up faster than Charlie would.... The idea that we’re going to find a business to buy from some guy who, from the moment he bought it a few years ago, has been thinking, 'How do I get out of this thing?' 'What do I do to have...those figures for a couple years look a certain way so that I can get the maximum amount in a couple years?' We’re just not going to make any attractive buys there. We won’t trust the figures. What we like is a business where the guy before was running with the idea of running it a hundred years, and taking care of the business in every way possible and was not contemplating sale, but, for one reason or another, finally needs to monetize the company. " --Warren Buffett (2006)

Bill Gates on Startups, Investing and Solving The World's Hardest Problems (video) [H/T Linc] (LINK)
You know, in the software world, in particular for platforms, these are winner-take-all markets. So, you know, the greatest mistake ever is the whatever mismanagement I engaged in that caused Microsoft not to be what Android is, [meaning] Android is the standard non-Apple phone form platform. That was a natural thing for Microsoft to win. 
It really is winner take all. If you’re there with half as many apps or 90% as many apps, you’re on your way to complete doom. There’s room for exactly one non-Apple operating system, and what’s that worth? $400 billion that would be transferred from company G [Google] to company M [Microsoft]. 
And it’s amazing to me, having made one of the greatest mistakes of all time — and there was this antitrust lawsuit and various things that, you know, our other assets, Windows, Office,  are still very strong. So we are a leading company. If we got that one right, we would be the company. But oh well. 
So this idea that just small differences can magnify themselves doesn’t exist for a lot of businesses. You know, if you’re a service business, it doesn’t exist. But for software platforms, it’s absolutely gigantic. And so that’s partly where you have the mentality of every night you think, ‘Am I screwing this up?’ And eventually, we did screw up a super important one. [Source]
Leithner Letter No. 237-240 (26 July – 26 October 2019) (LINK)

Indexing Giant Vanguard Examines a Push Into Private Equity ($) (LINK)

SeriesFest: Season 5 | Innovation Talk with Ted Sarandos & Mike Fries (video excerpt) [H/T @GosaliaRishi] (LINK)
Picking content, and working with the creative community, is a very human function. The data doesn't help you on anything in that process. It does help you, like I said, size the investment.... It's 70-80% art, and 20-30% science in terms of sizing it.
The World Is Full of Innovation More Important Than Ad Algorithms - by Ashlee Vance (LINK)

How I Built This Podcast: Yelp: Jeremy Stoppelman (LINK)

Odd Lots Podcast: One of Hong Kong’s Most Famous Investors Gives His Vision of the City’s Future (LINK)

EconTalk Podcast: Eric Topol on Deep Medicine (LINK)
Jared Diamond on the Making Sense podcast (LINK)
Related book: Upheaval: Turning Points for Nations in Crisis
Curiosity Detects Unusually High Methane Levels (LINK)

Sunday, June 23, 2019

Links

Tom Russo on WealthTrack (video) (LINK)

Bernard Arnault: ‘I always liked being number one’ ($) (LINK)

Why Investor Mario Cibelli Likes Grubhub Stock, Becle, and e.l.f. Beauty ($) (LINK)

Book review: “Merger Masters – Tales of Arbitrage” (LINK)

Grant’s Current Yield Podcast: Research Triangle (LINK)
Rob Arnott, founder and chairman of the board of Research Affiliates, LLC, calls in to assess conditions and opportunities around the world.
The Acquirers Podcast: Peter Rabover talks concentrated microcap investing and special situations (LINK)

Five Good Questions Podcast: Ashley Goodall - Nine Lies About Work (LINK)

Why You Should Study Philosophy - by Ryan Holiday (LINK)

TED Talk: The architectural secrets of the world's ancient wonders | Brandon Clifford (LINK)

Friday, June 21, 2019

Links

"Ben Graham said long ago that you’re neither right nor wrong because people agree with you or disagree with you. In other words, being contrarian has no special virtue over being a trend follower. You’re right because your facts and reasoning are right. So all you do is you try to make sure that the facts you have are correct.... And then once you have the facts, you’ve got to think through what they mean. And you don’t take a public opinion survey. You don’t pay attention to things that are unimportant. What you’re looking for [are] things that are important and knowable. If something’s important but unknowable, forget it. I mean, it may be important to know whether somebody’s going to drop a nuclear weapon tomorrow but it’s unknowable. And there are all kinds of things are that knowable but are unimportant. In focusing on business and investment decisions, you try to narrow it down to the things that are knowable and important, and then you decide whether you have information of sufficient value that—compared to price and all that—will cause you to act. What others are doing means nothing." --Warren Buffett (2006)

Unbreakable - by Ian Cassel (LINK)

Fraud in the Bull Market videos [H/T @colemanrhawkins] (LINK)

Bethany McLean Has Something To Say, and You Should Listen (video) (LINK) [The first episode of McLean's new podcast is free, HERE.]

Hayman’s Kyle Bass on trouble in Hong Kong (video) (LINK)

Your Employee Health Plan Could Soon Look Like Your 401(k) ($) (LINK)

Trump to Issue Executive Order on Health-Care Price Transparency ($) (LINK)

A candid conversation with EA's Andrew Wilson at E3 2019 (LINK)

Jeff Bezos took another veiled shot at Elon Musk, arguing that reaching Mars is an 'illusion' without going via the moon (LINK)

Are millennials really growing horns from using their phones? - by John Hawks (LINK)

Thursday, June 20, 2019

Links

David Sackler Pleads His Case on the Opioid Epidemic - by Bethany McLean (LINK)

The Future Isn’t What It Used to Be ($) [H/T @BrentBeshore] (LINK)

Your Professional Decline Is Coming (Much) Sooner Than You Think [H/T @morganhousel] (LINK)

The Appeal of 21st Century Stoicism (LINK)
Related book: How to Think Like a Roman Emperor: The Stoic Philosophy of Marcus Aurelius
On Crypto and Its Implications for American Technology Innovation (LINK)
Editor’s Note: This testimony was delivered by a16z managing partner (and former chairman of the board of the National Venture Capital Association) Scott Kupor to the House Agriculture Committee as part of their public hearings on “Cryptocurrencies: Oversight of New Assets in the Digital Age” in July 2018. 
Stanford’s Robert Sapolsky Demystifies Depression, Which, Like Diabetes, Is Rooted in Biology (2009 video) (LINK)

Revisionist History Podcast: Puzzle Rush (LINK)

Stuff You Should Know Podcast: What happened to the Neanderthals? (LINK)

Narlugas Are Real - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Paul Volcker on the Fed's dual mandate

From his book, Keeping At It:
In 1977 the Federal Reserve Act was amended to require that the central bank "maintain long run growth of the monetary and credit aggregates commensurate with the economy's long run potential to increase production, so as to promote the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates." Reasonable enough as an aspiration, but here we have the origin of what has since been interpreted as the "dual mandate." 
The following year, Congress passed the Full Employment and Balance Growth Act, known more widely as the "Humphrey-Hawkins Act" for the senator and congressman who sponsored the legislation. The new law had more than a bit of a monetarist flavor. It required the Federal Reserve chairman to report to the Congress twice a year on plans for monetary policy, setting out the board's targets for the growth in money and credit. That indeed was a specific mandate. It also went on to incorporate the previous less specific language about the "goals" of maximum employment, stable prices, and the now conveniently forgotten moderate long-term interest rates. A key issue for monetary policy is the degree to which that so-called dual mandate leads to clarity or confusion in the operating decisions of the Federal Reserve Board and Open Market Committee. I fear the latter.

Wednesday, June 19, 2019

Links

"You do not have to have tons of good ideas in this business. You just have a good idea that’s worth a ton, occasionally." --Warren Buffett (2006)

"The concept that you’re likely to find just one thing where it will make 20 percent per annum and you just sit back for the next 40 years, that tends to be dreamland. And in the real world, you have to find something that you can understand that’s the best you have available. And once you’ve found the best thing, then you measure everything against that because it’s your opportunity cost. That’s the way small sums of money should be invested. And the trick, of course, is getting enough expertise that your opportunity cost — meaning your default option, which is still pretty good — is very high... Most people aren’t going to find thousands of things that are equally good; they’re going to find a few things where one or two of them are way better than anything else they know. And the right way to think about investing is to act thinking about your best opportunity cost."  --Charlie Munger (2006)

Why The American Shoe Disappeared And Why It's So Hard To Bring It Back [H/T Linc] (LINK)

Acquired Podcast: The Zoom IPO (LINK)

a16z Podcast: The History and Future of Machine Learning (LINK)

Conversations with Tyler (podcast): Hal Varian on Taking the Academic Approach to Business (LINK)

TED Talk: How synthetic biology could wipe out humanity -- and how we can stop it | Rob Reid (LINK)

Two Earth-sized planets found in a nearby star's habitable zone! - by Phil Plait (LINK)

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Links

"Investing is really not complicated. I mean, the basic framework for it is simple. Now, you have to work at it some to find the best pockets of undervaluation.... But you didn’t have to have a high IQ—you didn’t have to have lots of investment smarts to buy junk bonds in 2002 or even to do some of the stuff that was available when LTCM got in trouble. You really just had to have the courage of your convictions. You had to have the willingness to do something when everybody else was petrified. But that was true in 1974 when we were buying stocks at very, very, very low multiples of earnings. It wasn’t that anybody didn’t know that they were cheap. They were just paralyzed for one reason or another." --Warren Buffett (2006)

"When you have a huge convulsion...you get a lot of weird behavior.... And if you can be wise when everybody else is going crazy, sure, there will still be opportunities. But that may give you long, dull stretches if that’s your strategy." --Charlie Munger (2006)

Stay in the Game (LINK)

Buy and Hold: Simple, NOT Easy - by Vishal Khandelwal (LINK)

While Studying Bonds, Why Credit Rating Analysts Should Keep an Eye on the Stock Price (LINK)

Invest Like the Best Podcast: Chuck Akre – The Three-Legged Stool (LINK)

To Hack or Not To Hack - by Peter Zeihan (LINK)

The Knowledge Project Podcast: Leading Above the Line (LINK)

Revisiting Benjamin Franklin and Socrates (LINK)

"The investor trying to buy right and hold on could buy as many different stocks as appealed to him. The difference is not in the focussing of investment money but in the intent of the buyer. The trader believes that in a swift-moving, rapidly changing world, with visibility always limited, he can make a series of commitments with better chance of success than trying to decide which companies will do well for the next twenty years. The investor dedicated to buying right and holding on picks managements, products, and processes he thinks able to cope with the unforeseeable as it hoves into view. " --Thomas Phelps (via 100 to 1 in the Stock Market)

Monday, June 17, 2019

Links

"More money is made by thinking than is ever made by buying and selling." --Adrian Cantwell (via Asia's Investment Prophets)

Mohnish Pabrai’s Lecture and Q&A with students of Peking University (Guanghua School of Mgmt.): “Great Businesses vs. Great Investments” (video) (LINK)

Mohnish Pabrai's Webcast Q&A Session with Students at London Business School (video) (LINK)

What Yogi Berra Would Have Said About This Bull Market - by Jason Zweig ($) (LINK)

GE’s Larry Culp Faces Ultimate CEO Test in Trying to Save a Once-Great Company (LINK)

James Grant: The Fed will cut in June (video) (LINK)

Choosing the Wrong Lane in the Race to 5G (LINK)

A Few Thoughts On Public Speaking - by Morgan Housel (LINK)

What Really Happened to Malaysia’s Missing Airplane - by William Langewiesche (LINK)

32 Thoughts From a 32-Year-Old - by Ryan Holiday (LINK)

EconTalk Podcast: Anja Shortland on Kidnap (LINK)
Related book: Kidnap: Inside the Ransom Business
The Peter Attia Drive Podcast: #58 – AMA with sleep expert, Matthew Walker, Ph.D. (LINK)

Book of the day [H/T Claire Barnes]: The Purpose of Capital

Sunday, June 16, 2019

David Abrams on catalysts and growth

We buy things with what we call a hard catalyst; so some kind of event that's going to close the gap between what you bought it at and what it's worth.  
We also buy things where there's no catalyst; so we're just owning businesses.  
In the first category, if there's a catalyst, we don't need that much growth. We need to buy it cheap and get out.  
In the second category, where there's no catalyst, we absolutely need growth. And now the growth can come in all kinds of ways. It doesn't have to come through increased revenues, although a lot of times it does. It can come from running operations more efficiently. It can come from acquisitions. It can come from buying back shares really cheap. But if there's no catalyst, we absolutely need growth.

Friday, June 14, 2019

Links

"If something is too hard to do, we look for something that isn’t too hard to do. What could be more obvious than that?" --Charlie Munger (2006)

Value Investing with Legends Podcast: Applying a Fundamental and Value-Oriented Approach to Investing [with David Abrams] (LINK)

Latticework of Mental Models: The Rashomon Effect (LINK)

Meatless Future or Vegan Delusions? The Beyond Meat Valuation - by Aswath Damodaran (LINK)

Animal Spirits - by Lewis Johnson (LINK)

Freakonomics Radio (podcast): Long-Term Thinking in a Start-Up Town (LINK)

Exponent Podcast: Game of Phones (LINK)

a16z podcast: AI and Your Doctor, Today and Tomorrow (LINK)
Related book: Deep Medicine: How Artificial Intelligence Can Make Healthcare Human Again - by Eric Topol
Wernher von Braun and The American Moonshot (LINK)

The salty ocean of Europa: Table salt found on Jupiter's moon - by Phil Plait (LINK)

Inside the Cultish Dreamworld of Augusta National (LINK)

Wednesday, June 12, 2019

Howard Marks Memo: This Time It's Different

Link to Memo: This Time It's Different
In good times, we often see the notion "this time it's different" work its way into the marketplace as investors seek to rationalize higher asset prices and continued upward movement. Today this sentiment is expressed in contexts ranging from questioning the prospect of a recession altogether to supporting the high valuations of tech companies despite their current profitless state. In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses the outlook for nine such theories. It would truly have to be different this time around for them to hold.

Links

"It’s pretty hard in a declining business to buy things cheap enough to compensate for the decline." --Warren Buffett (2006

What’s Warren Buffett Up to in Europe? [H/T Linc] (LINK)

The Meb Faber Show (podcast): John Huber - Stock Prices Fluctuate Much More Than The Underlying Businesses (LINK)

Paul Tudor Jones on JUST Capital, U.S. Recession, and Gold (video) (LINK)

Kyle Bass Sees Hong Kong Politics 'Speeding Up' Pressure on Dollar Peg (video) (LINK)
Related letters from Bass: 1) "The Quiet Panic in Hong Kong"; 2) "Trouble in Hong Kong- Part Deux"
Leonardo da Vinci’s Huge Notebook Collections, the Codex Forster, Now Digitized in High-Resolution: Explore Them Online (LINK)

For Kindle readers, there are a couple titles of note currently on sale:

Tubes: A Journey to the Center of the Internet

Junkyard Planet: Travels in the Billion-Dollar Trash Trade

Tuesday, June 11, 2019

Links

Mary Meeker’s 2019 internet trends report | Code 2019 (SLIDES, VIDEO) [More videos from the Code Conference can be found HERE.]

Invest Like the Best Podcast: Jerry Neumann – Why Venture is Hard (LINK)

Capital Allocators Podcast: Patrick O’Shaughnessy – O’Shaughnessy Asset Management (LINK)

The Incredible Creative Power of the Index Card - by Ryan Holiday (LINK)

Edge #542: The Brain Is Full of Maps - A Talk By Freeman Dyson (LINK)

Monday, June 10, 2019

Links

"With all of these new helpers in the world, they talk about doing deals. That is not the mindset at Berkshire. We are trying to welcome partners. It’s a total different mindset. The guy who’s doing a deal, he wants to do the deal and unwind the deal and — not too far ahead and make a large profit, et cetera, and that’s not our mindset at all. We like the things that we can buy and that never leave us, and we like the relationships that last and are fruitful, not just for us, but for the people working there and the customers and everybody else." --Charlie Munger (2006)

Tech and Antitrust - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

How Aldi, a brutally efficient grocery chain, is upending America's supermarkets [H/T @pcordway] (LINK)

50 Things I’ve Learned in the First 90 Days of Running a Company [H/T @BrentBeshore] (LINK)

Meet the Money Whisperer to the Super-Rich N.B.A. Elite (LINK)

Secrets of Sand Hill Road (Venture Capital and How to Get It) — Know Venture Capital Before You Get Married to a Venture Capitalist - by Tren Griffin (LINK)
Related book: Secrets of Sand Hill Road
How I Built This Podcast: Allbirds: Tim Brown & Joey Zwillinger (LINK)

Venture Stories Podcast: A Deep Dive on Education with Dani Grant (LINK)

Dan Carlin's Hardcore History: Addendum (podcast): EP8 Caesar at Hastings (LINK)

‘Drunken Monkey’ Hypothesis: Was Booze an Advantage For Our Ancestors? (LINK)

**********

Markets can be weird and irrational stat of the day (via @charliebilello from last Friday):
5-Year Bond Yields, June 2015...
Greece: 17%
US: 1.75% 
5-Year Bond Yields, Today...
Greece: 1.68%
US: 1.82%

Friday, June 7, 2019

Links

"I think that the chances we’ll have another 60 or 70 years with no nuclear devices used on purpose is pretty close to zero. So, I think you’re right to worry about it, but I don’t, myself, think there’s much that any of us can do about it, except be as sensible as we can and take the consequences as they come." --Charlie Munger (2006

"The only thing you can do about it — but you only have one vote — is to elect leaders who are terribly conscious of the problem and who devote a significant part of their thought and energy into minimizing it. You can’t eliminate it. The genie is out of the bottle. And you would like to have the leaders of the major countries of the world regarding it as a primary focus. Actually, in the 2004 campaign, I think that both candidates said it was the major problem of our time. But they probably suffer from the same feeling that I do, that it’s very hard to address." --Warren Buffett (2006

Excerpt of Jeff Bezos' fireside chat at re:MARS 2019 (video) (LINK) [I'll post the full video on the blog when/if it becomes available.]

Amazon Private Label Brands [H/T @emilyleldridge] (LINK)

Recode Media Podcast: Matthew Ball on Amazon vs Apple vs Netflix vs Disney, and how he built a digital media career by writing for free (LINK)
Related articles: Netflix Misunderstandings, Parts 1-7; "Nine Reasons Why Disney+ Will Succeed (And Why Four Criticisms are Overhyped)
The Deal Hidden in Your 401(k) - by Jason Zweig ($) (LINK)
For many investors, the Roth 401(k) offers some distinct advantages. But your plan administrator may not be steering you the right way.
Stanley Druckenmiller on CNBC (video) (LINK)

JPMorgan's London Whale Saga Ends Quietly as Fed Drops Its Order (LINK)

Did James make the right Final Jeopardy bet? - By Tim Urban (LINK)

D-Day: An American Legacy (narrated by Jocko Willink) (video) (LINK)

**********

I visited Normandy and the D-Day beaches for the first time last year (details via my better half HERE). One of the more striking things to me was the length of beach the soldiers had to cross to get to land. It's a trip a highly recommend, and it's something I think can appeal and move even those not inclined to normally study history in their spare time.

Thursday, June 6, 2019

Links

"We don’t play big trends. We don’t think about demographic trends or anything of the sort.... Big trends, they just don’t mean that much. There’s too much money to be made from year to year to think about things that take decades to manifest themselves." --Warren Buffett (2006

Brilliant stock picker John Neff, who ran Vanguard's Windsor Fund and built Penn’s endowment, dies at 87 (LINK)

Terry Smith presents the full Fundsmith FEET 2019 Annual Shareholders' Meeting (video) (LINK)

A 2017 paper from Ernst & Young: "Getting ROIC right" [H/T @_inpractise] (LINK)
Related paper: "Calculating Return on Invested Capital" (Mauboussin, Callahan); Related book (2006): Cash Return on Capital Invested: Ten Years of Investment Analysis with the CROCI Economic Profit Model
The Joe Rogan Experience (podcast): #1309 - Naval Ravikant (LINK)
Related podcast: Naval: How to Get Rich: Every Episode
The Ezra Klein Show (podcast): Michael Lewis reads my mind (LINK)

Conversations with Tyler (podcast): Russ Roberts on Life as an Economics Educator (LINK)

Standard Deviations Podcast: Brent Beshore - Building a “Baby Berkshire” (LINK)

Crazy/Genius Podcast: Influencers: Frauds or the Future of Online Commerce? (LINK)

Venture Stories Podcast: A Deep Dive On InsureTech with Karn Saroya and Sheel Mohnot (LINK)

Solvable Podcast: Homelessness is Solvable (LINK)
Malcolm Gladwell talks to Rosanne Haggerty about ending homelessness for everyone. Forever.
Kevin Kelly on Still Untitled: The Adam Savage Project Podcast (LINK)

AI: Hype vs. Reality Podcast: AI On The Job (LINK)

Humane: A New Agenda for Tech (video) [H/T @harari_yuval] (LINK)

The Deep Sea Is Full of Plastic, Too (LINK)