Monday, December 30, 2019


"Ben Graham always used to say you can get in more trouble in investment with a good premise than with a bad premise, because the bad premise will shout out to you immediately as being fallacious, whereas with a good premise it’ll work for awhile. Businesses are worth more money if interest rates fall and stocks rise. But then eventually the market action of the securities themselves creates its own rationale for a large crop of buyers, and people forget about the reasons and the mathematical limitations that were implied in what got them excited in the first place. And after a while, rising prices themselves alone will keep people excited and cause more people to enter the game. And therefore the good premise, after a while, is forgotten except for the fact that it produced these rising prices.... People tend to forget about the importance of the price they pay as the experience of a bull market just sort of dulls the senses generally." --Warren Buffett (1997)

What I’m thinking about this New Year’s Eve - by Bill Gates (LINK)
As the year comes to an end, I reflect on how we can make our tax system more fair.
I've posted these before, but they are once again making the rounds, so in case anyone hasn't seen them yet.... Joel Greenblatt 2005 class videos (LINK) [And related to these, there are also old Bruce Greenwald lectures online, and more recent lectures from Aswath Damodaran.]

The Market is Huge! Revisiting the Big Market Delusion - by Aswath Damodaran (LINK)

2019 Position Review - by Harris Kupperman (LINK)

As Shale Wells Age, Gap Between Forecasts and Performance Grows ($) (LINK)

The 2010s Killed the Cult of the Tech Founder. Great! - by Steven Levy (LINK)

Imagining Our Future Through Tech (video) (LINK)

Grant’s Current Yield Podcast: Home Alone (LINK)

Acquired Podcast: The Lean Startup and the Long-Term Stock Exchange (with Eric Ries) (LINK)

Books for our time: seven classics that speak to us now [H/T @jasonzweigwsj] (LINK)

10 Important Lessons We Learned from the 2010s - by Mark Manson (LINK)