Wednesday, February 26, 2020

Links

"One of the most notable behavioral traits among investors is their tendency to overlook negatives or understate their significance for a while, and then eventually to capitulate and overreact to them on the downside.  I attribute a lot of this to psychological failings and the rest to the inability to appreciate the true significance of events. As negatives accumulate – whether they surface for the first time or just are finally recognized as significant – eventually a time comes when they can no longer be ignored, and instead they come to be treated as being of overwhelming importance." --Howard Marks ("On the Couch," January 2016)

Amazon Empire: The Rise and Reign of Jeff Bezos (video) (LINK)
FRONTLINE examines Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos’ ascent to power and the global impact of the empire he built. The film also investigates the darker side of the company’s rapid growth, and the challenge of trying to rein in the power of the richest man in the world.
Summary version of the Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2020 (LINK)

Email Addresses and Razor Blades - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

Brent Beshore interviews Trish Higgins and Will Thorndike at Capital Camp 2019 (video) (LINK)

This is Not 1999 - by Eric Cinnamond (LINK)

Leithner Letter No. 245-248 (26 March – 26 June 2020) (LINK)

A Viral Market Meltdown: Fear or Fundamentals? - by Aswath Damodaran (LINK)

Invest Like the Best Podcast: Niko Canner – Become a Perfect Instrument (LINK)

Planet MicroCap Podcast: 109 - Boring is Beautiful with Brent Beshore, Founder and CEO of Permanent Equity (LINK)

Trailblazers with Walter Isaacson (podcast): Theme Parks: Where Tech Meets Thrills (LINK)

Hidden Forces Podcast: Market Nihilism: Price Discovery in a World Where Nothing Matters | Ben Hunt & Grant Williams (LINK)

Edge #566: Waiting for "The Final Plague" - A Talk with Nathan Wolfe [January 2009] (LINK)

You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus - by James Hamblin (LINK)
Most cases are not life-threatening, which is also what makes the virus a historic challenge to contain.
Book of the day: Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Human Pandemic - by David Quammen

"Those who have knowledge don't predict. Those who predict don't have knowledge." --Lao Tzu

Monday, February 24, 2020

Links

Howard Marks on investor psychology during coronavirus fears (video) (LINK)

How to Write Usefully - by Paul Graham (LINK)

100 Little Ideas - by Morgan Housel (LINK)

Finite and Infinite Games: Two Ways to Play the Game of Life (LINK)

What the E*Trade Deal Tells You About the New Investing Game - by Jason Zweig ($) (LINK)

13 Metrics for Marketplace Companies (LINK)

The Future Will Be Genetically Engineered (LINK)

Exponent Podcast: 181 — Competing with Spotify and Regulating Acquisitions (LINK)
Related article: "The Daily Update Podcast"
Venture Stories Podcast: Scaling and Network Effects with Anu Hariharan (LINK)

Highlights from Matt Ridley's reddit AMA (LINK)

Why have so many of our recent viruses come from bats? - by Matt Ridley (LINK)

The Strange Influence the Sun Has on Whales - by Ed Yong (LINK)

CNBC's full interview with Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett


Link to video

Sunday, February 23, 2020

Clayton Christensen quote

From the article "How Will You Measure Your Life?":

“If you study the root causes of business disasters, over and over you’ll find this predisposition toward endeavors that offer immediate gratification. If you look at personal lives through that lens, you’ll see the same stunning and sobering pattern: people allocating fewer and fewer resources to the things they would have once said mattered most.” --Clayton Christensen 

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Friday, February 21, 2020

Semper Augustus Investments Group: 2019 Annual Letter

Once again, Chris Bloomstran's year-end letter is a must-read. Like last year, this is great to read in tandem with Warren Buffett's annual letter, which will be released in the morning.


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And if you want to review all of Chris' deep dives into Berkshire, I recommend his 2015 letter, followed by his 2016 interview with Kate Welling, then the 2016 letter, 2017 letter, 2018 letter, and 2019 letter.

Thursday, February 20, 2020

Links

Note to the hardcore Berkshire and investing readers: Warren Buffett's letter to shareholders will be released on Saturday and, as we've done for the past few years, Chris Bloomstran's annual letter will also be released here on the blog tomorrow. Chris was hoping to keep things much shorter than the 112-pager from last year, but it's looking like it'll come in a bit longer than that for this year. So make sure your printer is full of paper and ink, and check back here during the second half of the day tomorrow for the Semper Augustus Investments Group 2019 Annual Letter. 

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"Conservatism may cause investors to refrain from making some investments that in hindsight would have been successful, but it will also prevent some sizable losses that would ensue from adopting less conservative business valuations." --Seth Klarman

The Best Thing You Can Do for Your Work Is Take a Walk - by Ryan Holiday (LINK)

The Knowledge Project Podcast: #76 Frank Stephenson: Pushing the Limits of Innovation (LINK)

Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom Podcast: #32: Christopher Cole On Appreciating Risk (LINK)

Walter Isaacson reviews the book Franklin & Washington: The Founding Partnership by Edward J. Larson (LINK)

How often do severe solar storms pummel the Earth? - by Phil Plait (LINK)

A Huge Discovery in the World of Viruses - by Ed Yong (LINK)

What's Next for COVID-19? [H/T @Atul_Gawande] (LINK)
Containment of the coronavirus would make an enormous difference to health around the world. Is it still possible?

Tuesday, February 18, 2020

Links

"The cost of every deal we do is measured by the second best deal that’s around at a given time, including doing more of some of the things we’re already in." --Warren Buffett (2001)

"Charlie and I always figure that our cost of capital is what could be produced by our second best idea. And then our best idea has to exceed that." --Warren Buffett (2014)

Twenty Years of Owning Berkshire Hathaway (LINK)

Broyhill 2019 Annual Letter (LINK)

Risk and loss aversion in ergodicity economics (LINK)

The a16z Marketplace 100 (LINK)

The Cutting Room Files, Part 7: Europe - by Peter Zeihan (LINK)

Bob Iger on The Bill Simmons Podcast (LINK)

Ben Thompson on The Bill Simmons Podcast (LINK)

The Acquirers Podcast: Dylan Grice (LINK)

Macro Voices Podcast: #206 Chris Cole: Optimizing portfolio construction for changing times [22:02 mark] (LINK)

Capital Allocators Podcast: Dan Rasmussen (LINK)

Acquired Podcast: Sequoia Capital Part II (with Doug Leone) (LINK)

Sir William Osler’s Advice to Students: Practice Concentrating on Hard Things (LINK)

The Cascading Consequences of the Worst Disease Ever - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Friday, February 14, 2020

No master plan...

From Warren Buffett at the 1997 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting
30 years ago we didn’t know we would be in the insurance business.  
We have no master plan. Charlie and I did not sit down in 1960 — early ’65 — and say, “We’re going to do this and that,” and all that.  
We’re going to try and do sensible things as we go along. The more money we have, the harder it is to find sensible things. But that’s the criterion.
Insurance is certainly a major area of opportunity for us. It’s been a major opportunity.  
In certain fields we have a terrific advantage for the three reasons I laid out in the annual report. We have capital strength, and a willingness to take on risk, and a speed of action, and a certainty of payment, that in aggregate no one matches.  
Now, how much demand there is for that depends on circumstances in the business and how much supply there is at lower prices that we think don’t make sense is another question. But I think we’ll do OK in insurance over time. 
From Warren Buffett at the 2001 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting
We don’t have a master plan. Charlie and I do not sit around and strategize or talk about the future of various industries or do anything of that sort. It just doesn’t happen. We don’t have any reports. We don’t have any staff. We don’t have any of that.  
We try to survey the whole financial field. We try to look at what comes in and look for things we understand, where we think they have a durable, competitive advantage, where we like the management, and where the price is sensible.  
We had no idea two or three years ago, that we would be the 87 percent owner of the largest broadloom carpet company in the world. 
We don’t plan these things. But I would tell you in a general way that 20 or so years from now, we will own a lot more businesses. 
...So we have no more master plan now than we had back in 1965 when we bought the textile mill, really. I mean, we had a lousy business. I didn’t realize it was as lousy as it was when I got into it. And we just had to start trying to deploy capital in an intelligent way.... That’s our business and we enjoy it.
From Charlie Munger in 2013
Therein lies a lesson in life. I think most lives work best when you simply react intelligently to the opportunities and difficulties you encounter, and just take the results as they fall.  
Some people think that by master planning, you will solve everything, but what I find is that the master plan gets a life of its own, and people believe it because they previously decided on that then, and they make all kinds of mistakes.  
(Thomas) Carlyle was a very smart man, and one of his favorite sayings was, the task of man is not to see what lies dimly in the distance but to do what lies clearly at hand. [Ed: actual quote: “Our main business is not to see what lies dimly at a distance, but to do what clearly lies at hand.”]

Thursday, February 13, 2020

Links

"Another thing to avoid is extremely intense ideology because it cabbages up one's mind. You see a lot of it in the worst of the TV preachers. They have different, intense, inconsistent ideas about technical theology, and a lot of them have minds reduced to cabbage. And that can happen with political ideology. And if you're young, it's particularly easy to drift into intense and foolish political ideology and never get out. When you announce that you're a loyal member of some cult-like group and you start shouting out the orthodox ideology, what you're doing is pounding it in, pounding it in, pounding it in. You're ruining your mind, sometimes with startling speed. So you want to be very careful with intense ideology. It presents a big danger for the only mind you're ever going to have." --Charlie Munger (Poor Charlie's Almanack, Talk Ten: USC Gould School of Law Commencement Address)

First, Do No Harm - by Ben Thompson (LINK) [Thompson was also on a panel for a Public Workshop on Venture Capital and Antitrust: VIDEO.]

Hidden Forces Podcast: The Decline of Active Management, the Rise of Market Nihilism, & the Fall of the Roman Republic | Mike Green (LINK)

Conversations with Tyler (podcast): Tim Harford on Persuasion and Popular Economics (LINK)

Ryan Holiday interviews Tim Ferriss (podcast) (LINK)

Ezra Klein with Malcolm Gladwell: Why We’re Polarized (video) (LINK)

China’s “Iron House”: Struggling Over Silence in the Coronavirus Epidemic - by Evan Osnos (LINK)