Sunday, June 23, 2019

Links

Tom Russo on WealthTrack (video) (LINK)

Bernard Arnault: ‘I always liked being number one’ ($) (LINK)

Why Investor Mario Cibelli Likes Grubhub Stock, Becle, and e.l.f. Beauty ($) (LINK)

Book review: “Merger Masters – Tales of Arbitrage” (LINK)

Grant’s Current Yield Podcast: Research Triangle (LINK)
Rob Arnott, founder and chairman of the board of Research Affiliates, LLC, calls in to assess conditions and opportunities around the world.
The Acquirers Podcast: Peter Rabover talks concentrated microcap investing and special situations (LINK)

Five Good Questions Podcast: Ashley Goodall - Nine Lies About Work (LINK)

Why You Should Study Philosophy - by Ryan Holiday (LINK)

TED Talk: The architectural secrets of the world's ancient wonders | Brandon Clifford (LINK)

Friday, June 21, 2019

Links

"Ben Graham said long ago that you’re neither right nor wrong because people agree with you or disagree with you. In other words, being contrarian has no special virtue over being a trend follower. You’re right because your facts and reasoning are right. So all you do is you try to make sure that the facts you have are correct.... And then once you have the facts, you’ve got to think through what they mean. And you don’t take a public opinion survey. You don’t pay attention to things that are unimportant. What you’re looking for [are] things that are important and knowable. If something’s important but unknowable, forget it. I mean, it may be important to know whether somebody’s going to drop a nuclear weapon tomorrow but it’s unknowable. And there are all kinds of things are that knowable but are unimportant. In focusing on business and investment decisions, you try to narrow it down to the things that are knowable and important, and then you decide whether you have information of sufficient value that—compared to price and all that—will cause you to act. What others are doing means nothing." --Warren Buffett (2006)

Unbreakable - by Ian Cassel (LINK)

Fraud in the Bull Market videos [H/T @colemanrhawkins] (LINK)

Bethany McLean Has Something To Say, and You Should Listen (video) (LINK) [The first episode of McLean's new podcast is free, HERE.]

Hayman’s Kyle Bass on trouble in Hong Kong (video) (LINK)

Your Employee Health Plan Could Soon Look Like Your 401(k) ($) (LINK)

Trump to Issue Executive Order on Health-Care Price Transparency ($) (LINK)

A candid conversation with EA's Andrew Wilson at E3 2019 (LINK)

Jeff Bezos took another veiled shot at Elon Musk, arguing that reaching Mars is an 'illusion' without going via the moon (LINK)

Are millennials really growing horns from using their phones? - by John Hawks (LINK)

Thursday, June 20, 2019

Links

David Sackler Pleads His Case on the Opioid Epidemic - by Bethany McLean (LINK)

The Future Isn’t What It Used to Be ($) [H/T @BrentBeshore] (LINK)

Your Professional Decline Is Coming (Much) Sooner Than You Think [H/T @morganhousel] (LINK)

The Appeal of 21st Century Stoicism (LINK)
Related book: How to Think Like a Roman Emperor: The Stoic Philosophy of Marcus Aurelius
On Crypto and Its Implications for American Technology Innovation (LINK)
Editor’s Note: This testimony was delivered by a16z managing partner (and former chairman of the board of the National Venture Capital Association) Scott Kupor to the House Agriculture Committee as part of their public hearings on “Cryptocurrencies: Oversight of New Assets in the Digital Age” in July 2018. 
Stanford’s Robert Sapolsky Demystifies Depression, Which, Like Diabetes, Is Rooted in Biology (2009 video) (LINK)

Revisionist History Podcast: Puzzle Rush (LINK)

Stuff You Should Know Podcast: What happened to the Neanderthals? (LINK)

Narlugas Are Real - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Paul Volcker on the Fed's dual mandate

From his book, Keeping At It:
In 1977 the Federal Reserve Act was amended to require that the central bank "maintain long run growth of the monetary and credit aggregates commensurate with the economy's long run potential to increase production, so as to promote the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates." Reasonable enough as an aspiration, but here we have the origin of what has since been interpreted as the "dual mandate." 
The following year, Congress passed the Full Employment and Balance Growth Act, known more widely as the "Humphrey-Hawkins Act" for the senator and congressman who sponsored the legislation. The new law had more than a bit of a monetarist flavor. It required the Federal Reserve chairman to report to the Congress twice a year on plans for monetary policy, setting out the board's targets for the growth in money and credit. That indeed was a specific mandate. It also went on to incorporate the previous less specific language about the "goals" of maximum employment, stable prices, and the now conveniently forgotten moderate long-term interest rates. A key issue for monetary policy is the degree to which that so-called dual mandate leads to clarity or confusion in the operating decisions of the Federal Reserve Board and Open Market Committee. I fear the latter.

Wednesday, June 19, 2019

Links

"You do not have to have tons of good ideas in this business. You just have a good idea that’s worth a ton, occasionally." --Warren Buffett (2006)

"The concept that you’re likely to find just one thing where it will make 20 percent per annum and you just sit back for the next 40 years, that tends to be dreamland. And in the real world, you have to find something that you can understand that’s the best you have available. And once you’ve found the best thing, then you measure everything against that because it’s your opportunity cost. That’s the way small sums of money should be invested. And the trick, of course, is getting enough expertise that your opportunity cost — meaning your default option, which is still pretty good — is very high... Most people aren’t going to find thousands of things that are equally good; they’re going to find a few things where one or two of them are way better than anything else they know. And the right way to think about investing is to act thinking about your best opportunity cost."  --Charlie Munger (2006)

Why The American Shoe Disappeared And Why It's So Hard To Bring It Back [H/T Linc] (LINK)

Acquired Podcast: The Zoom IPO (LINK)

a16z Podcast: The History and Future of Machine Learning (LINK)

Conversations with Tyler (podcast): Hal Varian on Taking the Academic Approach to Business (LINK)

TED Talk: How synthetic biology could wipe out humanity -- and how we can stop it | Rob Reid (LINK)

Two Earth-sized planets found in a nearby star's habitable zone! - by Phil Plait (LINK)

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Links

"Investing is really not complicated. I mean, the basic framework for it is simple. Now, you have to work at it some to find the best pockets of undervaluation.... But you didn’t have to have a high IQ—you didn’t have to have lots of investment smarts to buy junk bonds in 2002 or even to do some of the stuff that was available when LTCM got in trouble. You really just had to have the courage of your convictions. You had to have the willingness to do something when everybody else was petrified. But that was true in 1974 when we were buying stocks at very, very, very low multiples of earnings. It wasn’t that anybody didn’t know that they were cheap. They were just paralyzed for one reason or another." --Warren Buffett (2006)

"When you have a huge convulsion...you get a lot of weird behavior.... And if you can be wise when everybody else is going crazy, sure, there will still be opportunities. But that may give you long, dull stretches if that’s your strategy." --Charlie Munger (2006)

Stay in the Game (LINK)

Buy and Hold: Simple, NOT Easy - by Vishal Khandelwal (LINK)

While Studying Bonds, Why Credit Rating Analysts Should Keep an Eye on the Stock Price (LINK)

Invest Like the Best Podcast: Chuck Akre – The Three-Legged Stool (LINK)

To Hack or Not To Hack - by Peter Zeihan (LINK)

The Knowledge Project Podcast: Leading Above the Line (LINK)

Revisiting Benjamin Franklin and Socrates (LINK)

"The investor trying to buy right and hold on could buy as many different stocks as appealed to him. The difference is not in the focussing of investment money but in the intent of the buyer. The trader believes that in a swift-moving, rapidly changing world, with visibility always limited, he can make a series of commitments with better chance of success than trying to decide which companies will do well for the next twenty years. The investor dedicated to buying right and holding on picks managements, products, and processes he thinks able to cope with the unforeseeable as it hoves into view. " --Thomas Phelps (via 100 to 1 in the Stock Market)

Monday, June 17, 2019

Links

"More money is made by thinking than is ever made by buying and selling." --Adrian Cantwell (via Asia's Investment Prophets)

Mohnish Pabrai’s Lecture and Q&A with students of Peking University (Guanghua School of Mgmt.): “Great Businesses vs. Great Investments” (video) (LINK)

Mohnish Pabrai's Webcast Q&A Session with Students at London Business School (video) (LINK)

What Yogi Berra Would Have Said About This Bull Market - by Jason Zweig ($) (LINK)

GE’s Larry Culp Faces Ultimate CEO Test in Trying to Save a Once-Great Company (LINK)

James Grant: The Fed will cut in June (video) (LINK)

Choosing the Wrong Lane in the Race to 5G (LINK)

A Few Thoughts On Public Speaking - by Morgan Housel (LINK)

What Really Happened to Malaysia’s Missing Airplane - by William Langewiesche (LINK)

32 Thoughts From a 32-Year-Old - by Ryan Holiday (LINK)

EconTalk Podcast: Anja Shortland on Kidnap (LINK)
Related book: Kidnap: Inside the Ransom Business
The Peter Attia Drive Podcast: #58 – AMA with sleep expert, Matthew Walker, Ph.D. (LINK)

Book of the day [H/T Claire Barnes]: The Purpose of Capital

Sunday, June 16, 2019

David Abrams on catalysts and growth

We buy things with what we call a hard catalyst; so some kind of event that's going to close the gap between what you bought it at and what it's worth.  
We also buy things where there's no catalyst; so we're just owning businesses.  
In the first category, if there's a catalyst, we don't need that much growth. We need to buy it cheap and get out.  
In the second category, where there's no catalyst, we absolutely need growth. And now the growth can come in all kinds of ways. It doesn't have to come through increased revenues, although a lot of times it does. It can come from running operations more efficiently. It can come from acquisitions. It can come from buying back shares really cheap. But if there's no catalyst, we absolutely need growth.

Friday, June 14, 2019

Links

"If something is too hard to do, we look for something that isn’t too hard to do. What could be more obvious than that?" --Charlie Munger (2006)

Value Investing with Legends Podcast: Applying a Fundamental and Value-Oriented Approach to Investing [with David Abrams] (LINK)

Latticework of Mental Models: The Rashomon Effect (LINK)

Meatless Future or Vegan Delusions? The Beyond Meat Valuation - by Aswath Damodaran (LINK)

Animal Spirits - by Lewis Johnson (LINK)

Freakonomics Radio (podcast): Long-Term Thinking in a Start-Up Town (LINK)

Exponent Podcast: Game of Phones (LINK)

a16z podcast: AI and Your Doctor, Today and Tomorrow (LINK)
Related book: Deep Medicine: How Artificial Intelligence Can Make Healthcare Human Again - by Eric Topol
Wernher von Braun and The American Moonshot (LINK)

The salty ocean of Europa: Table salt found on Jupiter's moon - by Phil Plait (LINK)

Inside the Cultish Dreamworld of Augusta National (LINK)