Thursday, September 20, 2007

RealPlayer - A Useful New Addition

RealPlayer now allows you to download any streaming audio or video, in any format, even if it's not Real formatting.
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To download the latest version, go to: www.real.com
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I highly recommend making your first download Charlie Munger's 2007 Commencement Speech at USC's School of Law your first (he starts speaking at 43:45). My notes to the speech are posted HERE.

Robert Rubin - Fortune Article, Harvard Commencement, Interviews on Charlie Rose, Book

Fortune Article - 2003
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He has less serious habits, of course, and the Treasury team got to know them all. Rubin quit wearing a watch about 20 years ago--he thought it made him too conscious of time--and he doesn't carry a briefcase, instead toting what he needs in brown, expandable legal folders jammed under his arms. At the office he likes to work in stocking feet. For the 6 1/2 years he was in Washington--he tends to be very precise about that elapsed time--he lived like a bachelor at the Jefferson Hotel, flying to New York on weekends to rejoin his wife. He reads voraciously, keeping several pieces of fiction and nonfiction going at once. But he is largely oblivious to popular culture: His staff found that he hadn't heard of Aretha Franklin or Eartha Kitt, and until corrected he thought that Jimmy Buffett was Warren's son. He also once suggested to the board of the American Ballet Theatre, on which he sat, that it help along a cost-reduction drive by cutting 10% of the swans in Swan Lake. His advice, he says, was not well received.
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Harvard Commencement - 2001
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Warren Buffett to CNBC: "I Don't Care" If the Fed Cuts Rates

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Olstein Funds Annual Report

Olstein's Top Twenty Quality of Earnings Alerts
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1. Material deviations between net income and free cash flow
2. Material differences between the tax books and shareholder books as measured by deferred taxes
3. Material changes in balance sheet debt and liquidity ratios
4. Inventories, especially finished goods or raw materials, increasing or decreasing faster than sales
5. Accounts receivable increasing or decreasing faster than revenue
6. Deviations between depreciation and capital expenditures
7. The repetitiveness and materiality of non-recurring write-offs
8. The role that non-trend line changes in reserves contribute to, or negatively impact, current earnings
9. The repetitiveness and materiality of non-recurring gains such as sales from venture capital portfolios
10. The impact and reality of a company’s deferred expense capitalization policies as it effects reported free cash flow
11. Discretionary expenses deviating materially above and below trend lines
12. The reality, consistency and conservativeness of revenue recognition techniques when measured against the passing of cash
13. The impact that acquisitions have on sustainable free cash flow and the growth thereof
14. Changes in other asset accounts
15. The impact of transactions with special-purpose vehicles
16. Pension income and expense recognition measured against the pension plan’s assumptions and the funded status of the plan
17. Large deviations between pro forma and reported earnings
18. The impact of option transactions on reported free cash flow and the impact on future results and valuations of the company
19. The capabilities of management as measured by their long-term decision-making capabilities; especially when problems develop; their attitude toward risk as measured by the quality of the balance sheet; and their preparation for a rainy day; their methodology of communicating with shareholders; and finally their ability and emphasis on returning value to shareholders
20. Disclosure of material information needed to assess the value of the company

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Whitney Tilson: Hot favourites won’t always turn out to be great winners

"Stumbling" on Value Investing

Quality Without Compromise - Berkshire's Investment in See's Candy

Part 1:
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Part 2:
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Tuesday, September 11, 2007

7 Stupid Thinking Errors You Probably Make

Was Harry Potter Inevitable? - Michael Mauboussin

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The Harder Side of Sears

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Also of note, Mr. Lampert is buying back a bunch of stock.

FERMAT AND PASCAL ON PROBABILITY

Italian writers of the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries, notably Pacioli (1494), Tartaglia (1556), and Cardan (1545), had discussed the problem of the division of a stake between two players whose game was interrupted before its close. The problem was proposed to Pascal and Fermat, probably in 1654, by the Chevalier de M´er´e, a gambler who is said to have had unusual ability “even for the mathematics.” The correspondence which ensued between Fermat and Pascal, was fundamental in the development of modern concepts of probability

Probabilistic Thinking and the 80/20 Rule

$30B Worth of Advice