tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-88362524542163136802024-02-03T10:38:06.605-05:00Value Investing World“If only one word is to be used to describe what Baupost does, that word should be: 'Mispricing'. We look for mispricing due to over-reaction.” -Seth Klarman -- “In my opinion, there are two key concepts that investors must master: value and cycles." -Howard Marks -- “Your life must focus on the maximization of objectivity." -Charlie Munger -- "We don't have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest." -Warren BuffettJoehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17140392473157757048noreply@blogger.comBlogger7586125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8836252454216313680.post-8408144589140177772020-05-28T15:10:00.002-04:002020-05-28T15:12:36.384-04:00Value Investing World Announcement<div style="text-align: justify;">
After 13+ years of running this blog, I’ve decided to turn Value Investing World into a fee-based newsletter. There will still be free editions of the newsletter, but the majority of the material will be for subscribers. Further details are below.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
But first, let me thank everyone for reading this blog over the years. <b><i>Thank you!</i></b> I’ve met many of you in person and appreciate you coming here as a way to help you filter through all the great content there is to read out there.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b>Going forward…</b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
The new landing page for Value Investing World is: <a href="http://valueinvestingworld.substack.com/">valueinvestingworld.substack.com</a></div>
<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="320" scrolling="no" src="https://valueinvestingworld.substack.com/embed" style="background: white; border: 1px solid #eee;" width="480"></iframe><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
By signing up, you'll be added to the free distribution list, and will then have the option of subscribing to the paid version to get all of the content going forward.<br />
<br />
The newsletter will be just like this blog. For those of you that already subscribe via email, I will try and move you over to the free version. You can then upgrade if you’d like to subscribe to the paid version. I don’t know if I’ll be able to transfer all of the email addresses over, so if you don’t receive an email over the next day or two, you may just need to use the new landing page above to sign up once again.<br />
<br />
The first (and free) 'Links' post for today has just been <a href="https://valueinvestingworld.substack.com/p/links-5282020">posted to the new page</a>. </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
I’m going to experiment with the free version a bit. Assuming a normal week of 3-5 posts, the free version will either include 1 of those posts, or possibly a short weekly summary as an alternative.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
For the paid version, the price will be set at $7 per month. My hope is that the time I’m able to save readers through curation, and uncovering articles or investment ideas that they may not have found on their own, that price will pay for itself many times over. For now, I'm just going to offer a monthly subscription option in case I change my mind. If I decide to make everything free again, it is easier to go back when subscribers are only paying monthly.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Another benefit to subscribers will be the comments section. I had to turn comments off on the blog a long time ago because too much spam was getting into them. But now, whether it’s an investment idea or article about something completely outside of the investing world, comments will be open to those that want to discuss things (for the subscriber-only posts).</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
There are also a couple of things that I hope to add over time. Given my day job and main focus is still managing client accounts at a registered investment adviser, I’m not sure how quickly or to what extent these will get implemented. So when deciding whether or not to subscribe, see this blog for an expectation of what you’ll be paying for, and not these additional items. But I do hope to add: 1) More discussion of potential investment ideas. Given the comments section for subscribers and a number of investors and other business people I expect will continue as subscribers, I hope we’ll be able to have some informed discussions for those with these interests; and 2) A podcast. Even when I do (eventually) add this, I expect it to be fairly infrequent and only when I think I (and any possible guests) have something really worth talking about.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Thank you again to everyone that has read and supported this blog over the years. And thank you to those that are continuing the journey.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><br />
<a href="https://sorfis.com/">
<img src="https://sorfis.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Sorfis-Logo-text-only-smaller-40-percent.png" alt="Sorfis Investments" width="123" height="52" border="0" />
</a></div>Joehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17140392473157757048noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8836252454216313680.post-2639808637240711862020-05-26T14:43:00.000-04:002020-05-26T14:43:00.439-04:00Links<div style="text-align: center;">
<i>"It's one thing to have an opinion, and something very different to act as if it's right." --Howard Marks</i></div>
<br />
The CFA Institute's Virtual Conference [Howard Marks, Peter Zeihan, and others] (<a href="https://info.cfainstitute.org/73-cfa-institute-annual-virtual-conference.html?s_cid=eml_VirtualAC73_On-DemandRecording">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Platforms in an Aggregator World - by Ben Thompson (<a href="https://stratechery.com/2020/platforms-in-an-aggregator-world/">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
All six parts of Matthew Ball's & Jacob Navok's primer on Epic Games (<a href="https://www.matthewball.vc/all/epicgamesprimermaster">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
The Rise of TikTok and Understanding Its Parent Company, ByteDance (<a href="https://turner.substack.com/p/the-rise-of-tiktok-and-understanding">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
What Is Clubhouse, and Why Does Silicon Valley Care? (<a href="https://www.wired.com/story/what-is-clubhouse-why-does-silicon-valley-care/amp">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
The 'Don't Worry, Make Money' Strategy Trouncing The Stock Market By 30 Percentage Points (<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoinegara/2020/05/19/the-dont-worry-make-money-strategy-trouncing-the-stock-market-by-30-percentage-points/#3201129a2028">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Mortgage Credit Tightens, Creating Drag on Any Economic Recovery ($) (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/mortgage-credit-tightens-creating-drag-on-any-economic-recovery-11590431459">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Could the Pandemic of 2020 Redefine “Enough”? - by Frank K. Martin (<a href="https://frank-k-martin.com/2020/05/22/could-the-pandemic-of-2020-redefine-enough/">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Can Remote Work Be Fixed? - by Cal Newport (<a href="https://www.newyorker.com/culture/annals-of-inquiry/can-remote-work-be-fixed">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Chapter 1 of Matt Ridley's new book, <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062916599?ie=UTF8&tag=valuinvewor0c-20&camp=1789&linkCode=xm2&creativeASIN=0062916599">How Innovation Works: And Why It Flourishes in Freedom</a></i> (<a href="https://mailchi.mp/072d39098a28/innovationpreview">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Ian Cassel Talks MicroCaps and 100-Baggers on the Chain Reaction Podcast (<a href="https://microcapclub.com/2020/05/ian-cassel-talks-microcaps-and-100-baggers-on-chain-reaction-podcast/">LINK</a>)<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Rob Arnott on WealthTrack (video) (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Di6HE3iflNI">LINK</a>)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
Invest Like the Best Podcast: Shishir Mehrotra – The Art and Science of the Bundle (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+Lzu3n_LdE/1:20">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
The Talk Show With John Gruber (podcast): 285: ‘Fahrenheit Truthers’, With Ben Thompson (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+B7NB1G3rw">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Recode Decode Podcast: Brian Chesky: These 9 weeks were the most stressful in Airbnb’s history (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+QLduFtuqA/0:32">LINK</a>)<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
Acquired Podcast: SpaceX (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+FaxmmY8Jw">LINK</a>)</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
Masters in Business Podcast: Michael Lewis on the Power of Intelligent Leadership (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+JWZT80uyE/0:23">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Against the Rules with Michael Lewis (podcast): The Coach Effect (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+RCm2wozm0">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Tail risk of contagious diseases: a conversation between Nassim Taleb and Pasquale Cirillo (video) (<a href="https://youtu.be/ggrW6qi0qZQ">LINK</a>)<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
Freakonomics Radio (podcast): 419. 68 Ways to Be Better at Life [with Kevin Kelly] (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+WaLGdTq-M/0:57">LINK</a>)</div>
<br /></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><br />
<a href="https://sorfis.com/">
<img src="https://sorfis.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Sorfis-Logo-text-only-smaller-40-percent.png" alt="Sorfis Investments" width="123" height="52" border="0" />
</a></div>Joe Kosterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12142218976007046880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8836252454216313680.post-58190694930872729762020-05-22T09:25:00.000-04:002020-05-22T09:25:53.433-04:00Links<div style="text-align: center;">
<i>"We had to decide what are the fundamental directions we're going in, and what makes sense and what doesn't. And there were a bunch of things that didn't. Micro-cosmically they might have made sense. Macro-cosmically they made no sense. When you think about focusing, you think 'Focusing is saying <b>yes</b>.' No. Focusing is about saying <b>no</b>." --Steve Jobs </i>(1997 WWDC)</div>
<br />
Netflix: Cooked? - by Stephen Clapham (<a href="https://www.behindthebalancesheet.com/blog-1/netflix-cooked">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
The Brooklyn Investor blog: Wow! (<a href="http://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.com/2020/05/wow.html">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Nassim Taleb in conversation with The Economic Times (video) [H/T Linc] (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJ-Z3V5nATc">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Hong Kong National security law; Mocking Trump; Two Sessions begin - by Bill Bishop (<a href="https://sinocism.com/p/hong-kong-national-security-law-mocking">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Village Global's Venture Stories Podcast: The Bull and the Bear Case for the American Economy with Dan McMurtrie (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+LDKcr6gTw">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Odd Lots Podcast: What The Weak Recovery In Japan Can Teach Us About Re-Igniting The U.S. Economy (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+FhW_GWt7c/0:26">LINK</a>)<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Related link (subscription required): <a href="https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-interview/videos/more-power-to-the-princes">Professor Richard Werner joins Hugh Hendry for a chat on Real Vision</a></blockquote>
<div>
The James Altucher Show (podcast): 590 - How to THINK like an Innovator with Matt Ridley (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+BcN0HVAEU/4:29">LINK</a>)</div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Related book: <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062916599?ie=UTF8&tag=valuinvewor0c-20&camp=1789&linkCode=xm2&creativeASIN=0062916599">How Innovation Works: And Why It Flourishes in Freedom</a></i></blockquote>
Elephants Really Can’t Hold Their Liquor (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/20/science/drunk-elephants-genes.html">LINK</a>)<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Humans and other species have a gene mutation that lets them digest alcohol. In other species, it’s missing.</blockquote>
<br /><div class="blogger-post-footer"><br />
<a href="https://sorfis.com/">
<img src="https://sorfis.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Sorfis-Logo-text-only-smaller-40-percent.png" alt="Sorfis Investments" width="123" height="52" border="0" />
</a></div>Joe Kosterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12142218976007046880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8836252454216313680.post-48687522564716705212020-05-20T15:50:00.000-04:002020-05-20T15:50:08.112-04:00Links<div style="text-align: center;">
<i>"...most investors think quality, as opposed to price, is the determinant of whether something’s risky. But high quality assets can be risky, and low quality assets can be safe. It’s just a matter of the price paid for them. . . . Elevated popular opinion, then, isn’t just the source of low return potential, but also of high risk." --Howard Marks</i></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
Peter Zeihan chats with Grant Williams (video) (<a href="https://vimeo.com/420526801">LINK</a>)<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Related book: <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062913689?ie=UTF8&tag=valuinvewor0c-20&camp=1789&linkCode=xm2&creativeASIN=0062913689">Disunited Nations</a></i></blockquote>
Epic Games Primer - by Matthew Ball & Jacob Navok (<a href="https://www.matthewball.vc/all/epicprimer1">Part 1</a>, <a href="https://www.matthewball.vc/all/epicprimer2">Parts 2 & 3</a>)<br />
<br />
Millions of Americans Skip Credit-Card and Car Payments ($) (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/millions-of-americans-skip-credit-card-and-car-payments-11589985381">LINK</a>)<br />
<div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
About 15 million credit-card accounts and 3 million auto loans didn’t get paid in April as the coronavirus ravaged the economy, data show</blockquote>
</div>
America’s Patchwork Pandemic Is Fraying Even Further - by Ed Yong (<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/patchwork-pandemic-states-reopening-inequalities/611866/">LINK</a>)<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The coronavirus is coursing through different parts of the U.S. in different ways, making the crisis harder to predict, control, or understand.</blockquote>
<br /><div class="blogger-post-footer"><br />
<a href="https://sorfis.com/">
<img src="https://sorfis.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Sorfis-Logo-text-only-smaller-40-percent.png" alt="Sorfis Investments" width="123" height="52" border="0" />
</a></div>Joe Kosterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12142218976007046880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8836252454216313680.post-75658443887312331292020-05-20T09:26:00.000-04:002020-05-20T09:26:47.884-04:00Seth Klarman quote<div style="text-align: justify;">
From the October 2008 Graham & Dodd Breakfast (<a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vnXSEJqMVWU3OEAVFXu8Ox2-hfOLx2kt/view?usp=sharing">via <i>Outstanding Investor Digest</i></a>):</div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
In terms of our firm, I tried so hard to learn the lessons of 1998 in particular, which were: Don’t be unprepared for something out of the blue that’s really bad. </div>
</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
To some extent, we were prepared this time. However, you can never be prepared enough. We had a lot of macro protection in terms of credit default protection on bonds where we were just betting that credit spreads would widen. That’s been incredibly helpful. But we’ve gotten really tired of buying market puts, or anything like that, because they inevitably are expensive and expire worthless. </div>
</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
So as an investor, you have terrible trade-offs. Do you overpay for insurance — or do you go uninsured? That’s just one of those dilemmas for which there are really no perfect answers.</div>
</blockquote>
<br /><div class="blogger-post-footer"><br />
<a href="https://sorfis.com/">
<img src="https://sorfis.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Sorfis-Logo-text-only-smaller-40-percent.png" alt="Sorfis Investments" width="123" height="52" border="0" />
</a></div>Joe Kosterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12142218976007046880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8836252454216313680.post-43164229658385292762020-05-19T20:05:00.000-04:002020-05-19T20:15:34.205-04:00Links<div style="text-align: justify;">
For those interested.... The 5th Annual Value Symposium is back on. Not in Toronto (as originally planned), but via video and scheduled for May 27, 2020. The event has several portfolio managers scheduled to discuss their favorite ideas in a TED Talk format along with ample Q&A time for all attendees. You can buy your ticket ($29) for the virtual event <a href="https://yyxtoronto.ca/symposium.html">HERE</a>. For more information on the event and speakers, you can email <a href="mailto:info@YYXToronto.ca">info@YYXToronto.ca</a>.</div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
***</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
Gabelli's Omaha (Virtual) Research Conference | Berkshire Hathaway Valuation | May 2, 2020 [with Chris Bloomstran] (video) (<a href="https://youtu.be/4_AC7irciEQ">LINK</a>)<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Lollapalooza Time (<a href="http://mastersinvest.com/newblog/2020/1/17/lollopalooza-time">LINK</a>)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
The Song Remains the Same (<a href="https://www.rationalwalk.com/the-song-remains-the-same/">LINK</a>)</div>
</div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Related book: <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0471770892?ie=UTF8&tag=valuinvewor0c-20&camp=1789&linkCode=xm2&creativeASIN=0471770892">Where Are the Customers' Yachts?</a></i></blockquote>
Princes of the Yen: Central Bank Truth Documentary (video) [H/T <a href="https://twitter.com/hendry_hugh">@hendry_hugh</a>] (<a href="https://youtu.be/p5Ac7ap_MAY">LINK</a>)<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Related book: <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0765610493?ie=UTF8&tag=valuinvewor0c-20&camp=1789&linkCode=xm2&creativeASIN=0765610493">Princes of the Yen: Japan's Central Bankers and the Transformation of the Economy</a></i></blockquote>
Bill Gates' summer reading list (<a href="https://www.gatesnotes.com/About-Bill-Gates/Summer-Books-2020">LINK</a>)<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The books: 1) <a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/150113079X?ie=UTF8&tag=valuinvewor0c-20&camp=1789&linkCode=xm2&creativeASIN=150113079X"><i>The Choice</i> - by Dr. Edith Eva Eger</a>; 2) <a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0375507256?ie=UTF8&tag=valuinvewor0c-20&camp=1789&linkCode=xm2&creativeASIN=0375507256"><i>Cloud Atlas</i> - by David Mitchell</a>; 3) <a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0399592091?ie=UTF8&tag=valuinvewor0c-20&camp=1789&linkCode=xm2&creativeASIN=0399592091"><i>The Ride of a Lifetime </i>- by Bob Iger</a>; 4) <a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0143036491?ie=UTF8&tag=valuinvewor0c-20&camp=1789&linkCode=xm2&creativeASIN=0143036491"><i>The Great Influenza</i> - by John M. Barry</a>; 5) <a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1610399501?ie=UTF8&tag=valuinvewor0c-20&camp=1789&linkCode=xm2&creativeASIN=1610399501"><i>Good Economics for Hard Times</i> - by Abhijit V. Banerjee and Esther Duflo</a></blockquote>
Not even wrong: ways to predict tech - by Benedict Evans (<a href="https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2020/5/16/not-even-wrong">LINK</a>)<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Chips and Geopolitics - by Ben Thompson (<a href="https://stratechery.com/2020/chips-and-geopolitics/">LINK</a>)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
Facebook Launches Shopping Platform for Small Businesses ($) (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/facebook-launches-shopping-platform-for-small-businesses-11589919007">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Spotify Strikes $100 Million-Plus Podcast Deal With Rogan ($) (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/spotify-strikes-exclusive-podcast-deal-with-joe-rogan-11589913814">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Be Careful Handling White-Hot Moderna Stock ($) (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/be-careful-handling-white-hot-moderna-shares-11589813824">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Invest Like the Best Podcast: Hamilton Helmer – Power + Business (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+Lzu3dlWBE/0:49">LINK</a>)<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Related book: <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0998116319?ie=UTF8&tag=valuinvewor0c-20&camp=1789&linkCode=xm2&creativeASIN=0998116319">7 Powers: The Foundations of Business Strategy</a></i></blockquote>
The Meb Faber Show (podcast): #221 - Chris Davis, Davis Advisors (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+G1DVYfBvQ/0:39">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Against the Rules with Michael Lewis (podcast): The Coach in Your Head (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+RCm1va4cU">LINK</a>)<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
Hope, Through History Podcast: 5 | The 1918 Influenza Pandemic (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+ZxZmaTAw0">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
The Three Sides of Risk - by Morgan Housel (<a href="https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/the-three-sides-of-risk/">LINK</a>)<br />
<br /><div class="blogger-post-footer"><br />
<a href="https://sorfis.com/">
<img src="https://sorfis.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Sorfis-Logo-text-only-smaller-40-percent.png" alt="Sorfis Investments" width="123" height="52" border="0" />
</a></div>Joe Kosterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12142218976007046880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8836252454216313680.post-89348816717655013462020-05-18T11:24:00.000-04:002020-05-18T14:00:01.559-04:00Links<div style="text-align: center;">
<i>“Instead of a discussion of risk (which is both predictive and sissy) I advocate the notion of fragility, which is not predictive—and, unlike risk, has an interesting word that can describe its functional opposite, the nonsissy concept of antifragility.” --Nassim Taleb (<a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0812979680?ie=UTF8&tag=valuinvewor0c-20&camp=1789&linkCode=xm2&creativeASIN=0812979680">Antifragile</a>)</i></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The Acquirers Podcast: Tulip Mania: Chris Bloomstran on Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+Q5M0vebDQ/1:32">LINK</a>)</div>
<div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Related previous post: <a href="https://www.valueinvestingworld.com/2020/02/semper-augustus-investments-group-2019.html">Semper Augustus Investments Group: 2019 Annual Letter</a></blockquote>
</div>
<div>
<div>
Oaktree’s Howard Marks Says Fed Support Isn’t Forever, Distress Coming (video) (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-05-18/oaktree-s-marks-on-fed-support-credit-market-distress-video">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Apollo Asia Fund: the manager's report for 1Q20 (<a href="https://www.apolloinvestment.com/F200416.htm">LINK</a>)</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
When Failure Is an Option: A Trading Strategy Soaks Investors - by Jason Zweig ($) (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/when-failure-is-an-option-a-trading-strategy-soaks-investors-11589554807">LINK</a>)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
To Hedge or Not to Hedge - by Frank K. Martin (<a href="https://frank-k-martin.com/2020/05/15/to-hedge-or-not-to-hedge/">LINK</a>)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Media, Regulators, and Big Tech; Indulgences and Injunctions; Better Approaches - by Ben Thompson (<a href="https://stratechery.com/2020/media-regulators-and-big-tech-indulgences-and-injunctions-better-approaches/">LINK</a>)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
Exponent Podcast: 185 — Open, Free, and Spotify (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+BihnTujyQ">LINK</a>)</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
Strategy under uncertainty - by Jerry Neumann (<a href="http://reactionwheel.net/2020/05/what-is-strategy.html">LINK</a>)</div>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
<div>
<div>
Covid-19: Big shifts in the entertainment industry - by Sangeet Paul Choudary (<a href="http://platformed.info/covid-19-big-shifts-in-the-entertainment-industry/">LINK</a>)</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
Innovation Can’t Be Forced, but It Can Be Quashed - by Matt Ridley (<a href="http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/innovation-can-be-quashed/">LINK</a>)</div>
</div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Related book (released tomorrow): <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062916599?ie=UTF8&tag=valuinvewor0c-20&camp=1789&linkCode=xm2&creativeASIN=0062916599">How Innovation Works: And Why It Flourishes in Freedom</a></i></blockquote>
<div>
Fed Chair Jerome Powell on "60 Minutes" (video) (<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/video/jerome-powell-federal-reserve-economic-crisis-coronavirus-pandemic-60-minutes/">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
The Pomp Podcast: 294: Cullen Roche Explains The Ultimate Breakdown Of The Federal Reserve (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+OWGyXQbJE/3:15">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Hidden Forces Podcast: How the Wealth Gap Drives Imbalances in Global Trade & Finance | Michael Pettis (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+IXbfvEjbg/0:48">LINK</a>)<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
The Grant Williams Podcast: Super Terrific Happy Hour Ep. 2 - Inflation/Deflation (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+aAHvPR-Nc">LINK</a>)<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
The Daily Stoic Podcast: Ask Daily Stoic: Ryan and Historian Andrew Roberts Talk Leadership, Character and How One Person Can Change The World (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+OTJwBc3Zs/1:58">LINK</a>)</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
Recode Decode Podcast: Jon Meacham: America’s history can teach us how to hope for our future (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+QLdsMfxK4/1:29">LINK</a>)</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
The Twilight of the Iranian Revolution - by Dexter Filkins (<a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/05/25/the-twilight-of-the-iranian-revolution">LINK</a>)</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Some Zoos, and Some of Their Animals, May Not Survive the Pandemic (<a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/some-zoos-and-some-of-their-animals-may-not-survive-the-pandemic">LINK</a>)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
What's Different About the Coronavirus in Kids - by Sarah Zhang (<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/05/covid-19-kids/611728/">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Mental Models For a Pandemic (<a href="https://fs.blog/2020/05/pandemic/">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
A review of <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1999449037?ie=UTF8&tag=valuinvewor0c-20&camp=1789&linkCode=xm2&creativeASIN=1999449037">The Great Mental Models, Volume 2</a></i> (<a href="https://www.rationalwalk.com/farnam-streets-great-mental-models-volume-2/">LINK</a>)<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><br />
<a href="https://sorfis.com/">
<img src="https://sorfis.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Sorfis-Logo-text-only-smaller-40-percent.png" alt="Sorfis Investments" width="123" height="52" border="0" />
</a></div>Joe Kosterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12142218976007046880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8836252454216313680.post-18382000686152580252020-05-14T16:05:00.001-04:002020-05-14T16:06:51.302-04:00Links<div style="text-align: center;">
<i>"A leader is best when people barely know he exists, when his work is done, his aim fulfilled, they will say: we did it ourselves." --Lao Tzu </i></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway sold a substantial amount of U.S. Bancorp stock this week (<a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/warren-buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-sold-a-big-bank-stock-this-week-51589404932">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
A good post via the Berkshire Hathaway message board at The Motley Fool [H/T Linc] (<a href="https://boards.fool.com/optimized-strategy-for-extreme-conditions-34503488.aspx?sort=postdate">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Full video of Stanley Druckenmiller at The Economic Club of New York (<a href="https://youtu.be/wKwoMuB2Tck">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Full video of David Tepper's CNBC call-in yesterday (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_gwiJTKVI4">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
A Viral Market Update VIII: A Crisis Test - Value vs Growth, Active vs Passive, Small Cap vs Large! - by Aswath Damodaran (<a href="http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2020/05/a-viral-market-update-viii-crisis-test.html">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Acceptable Flaws - by Morgan Housel (<a href="https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/acceptable-flaws/">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
The Tim Ferriss Show (podcast): #432: Books I’ve Loved — Kevin Kelly (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+KebtZOSeU/4:29">LINK</a>)<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
Freakonomics Radio (podcast): 418. What Will College Look Like in the Fall (and Beyond)? (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+WaLHoxsvM">LINK</a>)</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Matt Ridley: 23 of Your AMA Questions, Answered (<a href="https://www.whatshouldireadnext.com/blog/matt-ridley-ama-transcript">LINK</a>)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><br />
<a href="https://sorfis.com/">
<img src="https://sorfis.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Sorfis-Logo-text-only-smaller-40-percent.png" alt="Sorfis Investments" width="123" height="52" border="0" />
</a></div>Joe Kosterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12142218976007046880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8836252454216313680.post-62742711200861070322020-05-13T15:26:00.000-04:002020-05-13T15:26:39.364-04:00LinksAmid the Coronavirus Crisis, a Regimen for Reëntry - by Atul Gawande (<a href="https://www.newyorker.com/science/medical-dispatch/amid-the-coronavirus-crisis-a-regimen-for-reentry">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Scanning for answers to a pandemic - by Bill Gates (<a href="https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/Seattle-Coronavirus-Assessment-Network">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
David Tepper says this is the second-most overvalued stock market he’s ever seen, behind only ’99 (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/13/david-tepper-says-this-is-the-second-most-overvalued-stock-market-hes-ever-seen-behind-only-99.html">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Druckenmiller Says Risk-Reward in Stocks Is Worst He’s Seen (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-12/druckenmiller-says-v-shaped-recovery-for-u-s-is-a-fantasy">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Daniel Yergin at The Economic Club of New York (video) (<a href="https://youtu.be/JiT735zXBAk?t=106">LINK</a>)<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Related book (September release): <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1594206430?ie=UTF8&tag=valuinvewor0c-20&camp=1789&linkCode=xm2&creativeASIN=1594206430">The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations</a></i></blockquote>
<div>
BIS paper: US dollar funding markets during the Covid-19 crisis - the money market fund turmoil (<a href="https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull14.htm">LINK</a>)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
BIS paper: US dollar funding markets during the Covid-19 crisis - the international dimension (<a href="https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull15.htm">LINK</a>)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
Dithering and Open Versus Free - by Ben Thompson (<a href="https://stratechery.com/2020/dithering-and-the-open-web/">LINK</a>)</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Steven Kiel interviews <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/article/4347044-opportunities-in-tankers-interview-praetorian-capital">Harris Kupperman</a> as well as <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/article/4346764-opportunities-in-tankers-interview-calvin-froedge">Calvin Froedge</a> about the opportunity in tankers.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Steve Vafier with the investment case for Stitch Fix (video) (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YA1GuPWvRuc">LINK</a>)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Invest Like the Best Podcast: Tobi Lutke – Building a Modern Business (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+Lzu1EjkG8/1:53">LINK</a>)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
Acquired Podcast: Adapting Episode 3: Intel (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+Faxk9ncgo">LINK</a>)</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
TC's Chartcast Podcast: #25: Josh Wolfe (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+WAFxQ1icg/1:10">LINK</a>)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Against the Rules with Michael Lewis (podcast): Don’t Be Good – Be Great (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+RCm3F-Ntc/1:30">LINK</a>)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
Hope, Through History Podcast: 4 | The Cuban Missile Crisis (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+ZxZkUEOik">LINK</a>)</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
Eat Rat, Make New Body: Easy Stuff for Pythons - by Carl Zimmer (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/12/science/pythons-metabolism-animals-digestion.html">LINK</a>)</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Book of the day (released yesterday): <a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1984877860?ie=UTF8&tag=valuinvewor0c-20&camp=1789&linkCode=xm2&creativeASIN=1984877860"><i>No Rules Rules: Netflix and the Culture of Reinvention</i> - by Reed Hastings and Erin Meyer</a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><br />
<a href="https://sorfis.com/">
<img src="https://sorfis.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Sorfis-Logo-text-only-smaller-40-percent.png" alt="Sorfis Investments" width="123" height="52" border="0" />
</a></div>Joe Kosterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12142218976007046880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8836252454216313680.post-22067411009374393262020-05-11T16:24:00.002-04:002020-05-11T16:24:18.080-04:00Howard Marks Memo: UncertaintyLink to Memo: <a href="https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/uncertainty.pdf">Uncertainty</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="text-align: justify;">
In investing, uncertainty is a given – how we deal with it will be critical. Read Howard Marks’s latest memo, in which he discusses the value of understanding the limitations of our foresight and “investing scared.”</blockquote>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><br />
<a href="https://sorfis.com/">
<img src="https://sorfis.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Sorfis-Logo-text-only-smaller-40-percent.png" alt="Sorfis Investments" width="123" height="52" border="0" />
</a></div>Joe Kosterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12142218976007046880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8836252454216313680.post-55511056568046314862020-05-11T16:22:00.000-04:002020-05-11T16:22:37.486-04:00Links<div style="text-align: center;">
"Security analysis does not seek to determine exactly what is the intrinsic value of a given security. It needs only to establish either that the value is <i>adequate</i>—e.g., to protect a bond or to justify a stock purchase—or else that the value is considerably higher or considerably lower than the market price. For such purposes an indefinite and approximate measure of the intrinsic value may be sufficient. To use a homely simile, it is quite possible to decide by inspection that a woman is old enough to vote without knowing her age or that a man is heavier than he should be without knowing his exact weight." --Benjamin Graham and David Dodd (<i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0071592539?ie=UTF8&tag=valuinvewor0c-20&camp=1789&linkCode=xm2&creativeASIN=0071592539">Security Analysis</a></i>)</div>
<br />
The Tim Ferriss Show (podcast): #431: Howard Marks on the US Dollar, Three Ways to Add Defense, and Good Questions (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+Kebvv-BXM/3:17">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Amazon, Berkshire, JPMorgan Health-Care Venture Looking for New CEO [H/T Linc] ($) (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/gawande-in-talks-about-leaving-helm-of-health-care-venture-haven-11588987079">LINK</a>)<br />
<div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Atul Gawande is in advanced discussions to step down as chief executive and take on a less operational role as chairman of Haven, the health-care venture backed by Amazon.com Inc., Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co., according to people with knowledge of the matter. </div>
</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Dr. Gawande, a prominent surgeon and professor at Harvard University, wants to move away from day-to-day management of Haven and focus more on policy and advocacy work, particularly related to the current coronavirus pandemic, the people said.</div>
</blockquote>
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Oil Crash Busted Broker’s Computers and Inflicted Big Losses (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-08/oil-crash-busted-a-broker-s-computers-and-inflicted-huge-losses">LINK</a>)</div>
<br />
Value Hive Podcast: 24: More Than Shipping Stocks w/ Harris Kupperman, Praetorian Capital (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+WLBehet9A">LINK</a>)<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
What's Next for Oil? MacroVoices #218 Postgame (video/podcast) (<a href="https://youtu.be/6epEggATfoc">LINK</a>)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
Peter Zeihan Explains The Geopolitical Landscape (video/podcast) (<a href="https://youtu.be/ygrurjeTfTU">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Odd Lots Podcast: Richard Koo Explains Why The Recovery Will Be So Difficult (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+FhW_7FAdQ">LINK</a>)<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
We know everything – and nothing – about Covid - by Matt Ridley (<a href="http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/we-know-everything-and-nothing/">LINK</a>)<br />
<br /><div class="blogger-post-footer"><br />
<a href="https://sorfis.com/">
<img src="https://sorfis.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Sorfis-Logo-text-only-smaller-40-percent.png" alt="Sorfis Investments" width="123" height="52" border="0" />
</a></div>Joe Kosterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12142218976007046880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8836252454216313680.post-32752183587195007462020-05-08T14:52:00.001-04:002020-05-08T14:52:39.737-04:00Links<div style="text-align: center;">
<i>"In terms of generally advancing within organizations, I think you’d be surprised at how little competition you really have if you start thinking like you would if you were an owner of the place, and working like you would if you were an owner of the place, and pretty soon you may be running something." --Warren Buffett</i> (<a href="https://buffett.cnbc.com/video/2010/05/01/afternoon-session---2010-berkshire-hathaway-annual-meeting.html">2010</a>)</div>
<br />
Armed With Swabs, Covid Hunters Stalk Their Prey - by Michael Lewis (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-05-08/covid-19-hunters-of-chan-zuckerberg-biohub-stalk-mission-district">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Michael Lewis in Conversation with Malcolm Gladwell and Jacob Weisberg (podcast) (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+RCm1CdyH4/1:00">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Bronte Capital's Q1 Letter [H/T Linc] (<a href="http://files.brontecapital.com/amalthea/Amalthea_Letter_202003.pdf">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
[There's another great collection of Q1 letters <a href="https://lettersandreviews.blogspot.com/2020/04/fund-management-letters-just-reposting_25.html">HERE</a>.]<br />
<br />
What Have We Learned Here? - by Morgan Housel (<a href="https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/what-have-we-learned-here/">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
The Psychology of Masks (<a href="https://www.rationalwalk.com/the-psychology-of-masks/">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
The Glut Drowning the Oil Market ($) (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-glut-drowning-the-oil-market-11588843801">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Here’s What to Know If You Must Sign Up for Cobra Health Insurance ($) (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/heres-what-to-know-if-you-must-sign-up-for-cobra-health-insurance-11588843802">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Cloud Gaming: Why It Matters And The Games It Will Create - by Matthew Ball & Jacob Navok (<a href="https://www.matthewball.vc/all/cloudmiles">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Tom Colicchio’s Plan to Save Restaurants (<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/05/tom-colicchios-plan-save-restaurants/611263/">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
The Joe Rogan Experience (podcast): #1470 - Elon Musk (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+uV0oxo/7:46">LINK</a>)<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
Recode Media Podcast: Michael Jordan’s Last Dance, with director Jason Hehir (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+QL2eeMXWw/0:41">LINK</a>)</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
A Much-Hyped COVID-19 Treatment Has a Weird Connection to Black-Market Cat Drugs - by Sarah Zhang (<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/05/remdesivir-cats/611341/">LINK</a>)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The Problem With Stories About Dangerous Coronavirus Mutations - by Ed Yong (<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/coronavirus-strains-transmissible/611239/">LINK</a>)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><br />
<a href="https://sorfis.com/">
<img src="https://sorfis.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Sorfis-Logo-text-only-smaller-40-percent.png" alt="Sorfis Investments" width="123" height="52" border="0" />
</a></div>Joe Kosterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12142218976007046880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8836252454216313680.post-69340553827910723862020-05-06T09:11:00.000-04:002020-05-06T09:11:00.149-04:00Links<div style="text-align: center;">
<i>"Speculators may do no harm as bubbles on a steady stream of enterprise. But the position is serious when enterprise becomes the bubble on a whirlpool of speculation. When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. The measure of success attained by Wall Street, regarded as an institution of which the proper social purpose is to direct new investment into the most profitable channels in terms of future yield, cannot be claimed as one of the outstanding triumphs of laissez-faire capitalism which is not surprising, if I am right in thinking that the best brains of Wall Street have been in fact directed towards a different object." --John Maynard Keynes</i></div>
<br />
Warren Buffett’s Optimistic? Pessimistic? No, Realistic - by Andrew Ross Sorkin (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/03/business/dealbook/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway.html">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Sam Zell on Market Valuations, Real Estate, Post-Virus Economy (video) [H/T Linc] (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tR9qd65EBnc">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Spring 2020 issue of Graham & Doddsville (<a href="https://heilbrunncenter.org/sites/default/files/civicrm/persist/contribute/files/Graham%20_%20Doddsville_Issue%2039_v13_FINAL.pdf">LINK</a>)<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
Content, Cars, and Comparisons in the "Streaming Wars" - by Matthew Ball (<a href="https://www.matthewball.vc/all/contentcarscomparisons">LINK</a>)<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Invest Like the Best Podcast: Ali Hamed – An Update on Private Credit (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+Lzu1V123M/1:19">LINK</a>)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
Against the Rules with Michael Lewis (podcast): The Invisible Coach (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+RCm1eY-a8">LINK</a>)</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The Case for Deeply Negative Interest Rates - by Kenneth Rogoff (<a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/advanced-economies-need-deeply-negative-interest-rates-by-kenneth-rogoff-2020-05">LINK</a>)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
MacroVoices Podcast #217 Dr. Lacy Hunt: The Road Through Deflation Toward Eventual Hyperinflation (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+F9abKYKmk/19:48">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Hope, Through History Podcast: Episode 3 | The Polio Epidemic (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+ZxZkzjsLc">LINK</a>)<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
The Daily Stoic Podcast: Ask Daily Stoic: Ryan and Robert Greene Talk Plagues, Politics, and Polarization (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+OTJznJsb4/1:30">LINK</a>)<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
All You Need Are a Few Small Wins Every Day - by Ryan Holiday (<a href="https://forge.medium.com/all-you-need-are-a-few-small-wins-every-day-f1a6d2bf9fb3">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Our message to the class of 2020 - by Bill and Melinda Gates (<a href="https://www.gatesnotes.com/About-Bill-Gates/Our-message-to-the-class-of-2020">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
It is time to take seriously the link between Vitamin D deficiency and more serious Covid-19 symptoms - by Matt Ridley (<a href="http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/vitamin-d-deficiency-and-covid-19/">LINK</a>)<br />
<br /><div class="blogger-post-footer"><br />
<a href="https://sorfis.com/">
<img src="https://sorfis.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Sorfis-Logo-text-only-smaller-40-percent.png" alt="Sorfis Investments" width="123" height="52" border="0" />
</a></div>Joe Kosterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12142218976007046880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8836252454216313680.post-39321749361982409112020-05-04T18:16:00.000-04:002020-05-05T08:52:51.508-04:00Links<div style="text-align: center;">
<i>"As I've gotten older...I could not help but notice the effect on people of the stories they told about themselves. If you listen to people—if you just sit and listen—you'll find that there are patterns in the way they talk about themselves. There's the kind of person who's always the victim in any story that they tell—always on the receiving end of some injustice. There's the person who's always kind of the hero in every story they tell. The smart person—they deliver the clever put-down. There are lots of versions of this. And you gotta be very careful about how you tell these stories because it starts to become you. You are, in the way you craft your narrative, kind of crafting your character. And so, I did at some point decide: I am going to adopt self-consciously as my narrative that I'm the happiest person anybody knows. And it is amazing how happy-inducing it is." --Michael Lewis</i> [<a href="https://overcast.fm/+Kebv1E3dc/1:09:45">Source</a>]</div>
<br />
The Tim Ferriss Show (podcast): #427: Michael Lewis on the Crafts of Writing, Friendship, Coaching, Happiness, and More (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+Kebv1E3dc/5:54">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting Transcript 2020 (<a href="https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-annual-meeting-transcript-2020">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
The Investor’s Podcast: TIP295: Mohnish Pabrai on Value Investing & Philanthropy (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+I6zH3iYu4">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Masters in Business Podcast: Jim Chanos on Financial Fraud (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+JWZS0zojg/1:24">LINK</a>)<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
Finding Your Balance in a Topsy-Turvy Market - by Jason Zweig ($) (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/finding-your-balance-in-a-topsy-turvy-market-11588341602">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Beyond coronavirus: The road ahead for the automotive aftermarke [H/T <a href="https://twitter.com/chrispavese/status/1257295346306363393?s=11">@chrispavese</a>] (<a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/beyond-coronavirus-the-road-ahead-for-the-automotive-aftermarket?cid=soc-web">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
How Greenwich Republicans Learned to Love Trump - by Evan Osnos (<a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/05/11/how-greenwich-republicans-learned-to-love-trump">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
The iconic brands that could disappear because of coronavirus (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/29/which-iconic-brands-could-disappear-because-coronavirus/?arc404=true">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Price Gouging Could Actually Fix Our Face Mask Shortage - by Russ Roberts (<a href="https://marker.medium.com/price-gouging-could-actually-fix-our-face-mask-shortage-e85abb16b75e">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Old Drugs May Find a New Purpose: Fighting the Coronavirus (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/health/coronavirus-antiviral-drugs.html">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Why Weren’t We Ready for the Coronavirus? - by David Quammen (<a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/05/11/why-werent-we-ready-for-the-coronavirus">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Making Sense with Sam Harris (podcast): #201 [with Yuval Noah Harari] (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+Ic2i3dmWw">LINK</a>)<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
Hope, Through History Podcast: Episode 1 | FDR and The Great Depression (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+ZxZkw8BfE">LINK</a>)</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Hope, Through History Podcast: Episode 2 | Winston Churchill and World War II (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+ZxZmW3cyY">LINK</a>)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
The Man Who Thought Too Fast (<a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/05/04/the-man-who-thought-too-fast">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Book of the day (recommended by Michael Lewis): <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1590173465?ie=UTF8&tag=valuinvewor0c-20&camp=1789&linkCode=xm2&creativeASIN=1590173465">The Long Ships</a></i><br />
<br /><div class="blogger-post-footer"><br />
<a href="https://sorfis.com/">
<img src="https://sorfis.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Sorfis-Logo-text-only-smaller-40-percent.png" alt="Sorfis Investments" width="123" height="52" border="0" />
</a></div>Joe Kosterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12142218976007046880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8836252454216313680.post-39393292768853748422020-05-02T21:49:00.004-04:002020-05-02T21:49:50.892-04:00Warren Buffett and the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting 2020<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="296" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/69rm13iUUgE" width="526"></iframe><br />
<a href="https://youtu.be/69rm13iUUgE">Link to video</a><br />
<br /><div class="blogger-post-footer"><br />
<a href="https://sorfis.com/">
<img src="https://sorfis.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Sorfis-Logo-text-only-smaller-40-percent.png" alt="Sorfis Investments" width="123" height="52" border="0" />
</a></div>Joe Kosterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12142218976007046880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8836252454216313680.post-10218130360878502132020-04-30T08:43:00.001-04:002020-04-30T14:38:04.548-04:00LinksInvest Like the Best Podcast: Chris Bloomstran - An Update on Public Markets (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+Lzu3mM37g/1:20">LINK</a>)<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Related previous post: <a href="https://www.valueinvestingworld.com/2020/02/semper-augustus-investments-group-2019.html">Semper Augustus Investments Group: 2019 Annual Letter</a></blockquote>
<div>
Grant’s Current Yield Podcast: Class is in session [with Bruce Greenwald] (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+TYmBZKMf8">LINK</a>)</div>
<br />
Broyhill Portfolio Update (<a href="https://www.broyhillasset.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Broyhill-Portfolio-Update-2020.Q1-FINAL.pdf">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Boyar Quarterly Letter (<a href="https://app.hubspot.com/documents/4595129/view/74030942?accessId=1fee63">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Greenhaven Road Capital Q1 Letter (<a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5498841ce4b0311b8ddc012b/t/5ea425773459dd34b66cf263/1587815799646/Greenhaven+Road+Letter+%282020+Q1%29.pdf">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
[More Q1 letters can be found <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/SecurityAnalysis/comments/fwr1i4/q1_2020_letters_reports/">HERE</a> and <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/sh/otx16plagv2k0qh/AABzJdVgzGz8Q6wikr42j8Uxa?dl=0">HERE</a>.]<br />
<br />
The Investing Edge Podcast: Value Investor’s Edge Live #18: On The Water In The Tanker Markets With Frontline’s CEO (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+UP5aQTrFs">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Matt Ridley on The Glenn Beck Show on BlazeTV (video) (<a href="https://youtu.be/x3HbFVFiI8c">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
68 Bits of Unsolicited Advice - by Kevin Kelly (<a href="https://kk.org/thetechnium/68-bits-of-unsolicited-advice/">LINK</a>)<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="text-align: justify;">
It’s my birthday. I’m 68. I feel like pulling up a rocking chair and dispensing advice to the young ‘uns. Here are 68 pithy bits of unsolicited advice which I offer as my birthday present to all of you.</blockquote>
I Am So Lucky - by Trey Mancini [H/T Linc] (<a href="https://www.theplayerstribune.com/en-us/articles/i-am-so-lucky-trey-mancini-orioles-cancer">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
What you need to know about the COVID-19 vaccine - by Bill Gates (<a href="https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/What-you-need-to-know-about-the-COVID-19-vaccine">LINK</a>)<br />
<br /><div class="blogger-post-footer"><br />
<a href="https://sorfis.com/">
<img src="https://sorfis.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Sorfis-Logo-text-only-smaller-40-percent.png" alt="Sorfis Investments" width="123" height="52" border="0" />
</a></div>Joe Kosterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12142218976007046880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8836252454216313680.post-27271350254327919092020-04-29T16:34:00.000-04:002020-04-30T08:13:15.623-04:00Links<div style="text-align: center;">
<i>"We pay some very big money. We have managers that have made and will make in the tens of millions annually, and we have managers that, when we suffer, they suffer. But you’ve got to treat people fairly. Even though they don’t need the money, everybody wants to be treated fairly. And so the rationale for how you’re doing it should be understood, but there is no cross-Berkshire rationale at all.... The main thing to do is, in terms of market position and all that sort of thing, the real thing I really want to pay managers for is widening the moat that separates our business from our competitors’ businesses over time. Now, that gets very subjective, so I don’t have any perfect way of doing that. But that is always going through my mind in trying to design compensation systems." --Warren Buffett </i>(<a href="https://buffett.cnbc.com/video/2010/05/01/morning-session---2010-berkshire-hathaway-annual-meeting.html">2010</a>)</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
Warren Buffett will soon tell us what he really thinks about stocks investing and the coronavirus pandemic - by Lawrence Cunningham (<a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/warren-buffett-will-soon-say-a-lot-more-about-stocks-investing-and-the-coronavirus-pandemic-2020-04-27">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
The Anti-Amazon Alliance - by Ben Thompson (<a href="https://stratechery.com/2020/the-anti-amazon-alliance/">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
When You Have No Idea What Happens Next - by Morgan Housel (<a href="https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/when-you-have-no-idea-what-happens-next/">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Wizards of Dalal Street: Mohnish Pabrai on COVID-19 and world economy (video) (<a href="https://www.cnbctv18.com/videos/market/wizards-of-dalal-street-eminent-value-investor-mohnish-pabrai-on-covid-19-and-world-economy-5785031.htm">LINK</a>)<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
Martin Stopford on "Coronavirus, Climate Change & Smart Shipping: 3 Maritime Scenarios 2020-2050” (video) (<a href="https://youtu.be/jhfwY63pmJk">LINK</a>) [Related paper <a href="http://webinars.capitallink.com/2020/stopford/paper.pdf">HERE</a>.]<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
State of the Cloud 2020 · Bessemer Venture Partners (<a href="https://www.bvp.com/atlas/state-of-the-cloud-2020">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Invest Like the Best Podcast: Josh Kopelman - The Past, Present, And Future Of Seed Investing (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+Lzu2hLlB0/1:20">LINK</a>)<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
Stoicism in a time of pandemic: how Marcus Aurelius can help (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2020/apr/25/stoicism-in-a-time-of-pandemic-coronavirus-marcus-aurelius-the-meditations">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
The Ezra Klein Show (podcast): Bill Gates’s vision for life beyond coronavirus (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+QLhX_SaUM">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Antibody Tests Won’t Get Us Back to Normal - by Sarah Zhang (<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/04/antibody-tests-herd-immunity/610762/">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Why the Coronavirus Is So Confusing - by Ed Yong (<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/pandemic-confusing-uncertainty/610819/">LINK</a>)<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
A guide to making sense of a problem that is now too big for any one person to fully comprehend</blockquote>
<br /><div class="blogger-post-footer"><br />
<a href="https://sorfis.com/">
<img src="https://sorfis.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Sorfis-Logo-text-only-smaller-40-percent.png" alt="Sorfis Investments" width="123" height="52" border="0" />
</a></div>Joe Kosterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12142218976007046880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8836252454216313680.post-38359109045633092642020-04-27T14:52:00.000-04:002020-04-27T17:38:29.591-04:00LinksInformation Regarding the 2020 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting (<a href="https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/meet01/2020Meetinginfo-apr2620.pdf">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Warren Buffett may have ditched airline stocks and spent $20 billion on stock buybacks, investor Chris Bloomstran says (<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-might-sell-airlines-spend-billions-buybacks-chris-bloomstran-2020-4-1029133930">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
What the Coronavirus Crisis Reveals About American Medicine - by Siddhartha Mukherjee (<a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/05/04/what-the-coronavirus-crisis-reveals-about-american-medicine">LINK</a>)<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Medicine is a system for delivering care and support; it’s also a system of information, quality control, and lab science. All need fixing.</blockquote>
Nassim Taleb on warnings over systemic risks from global pandemics (video from last week) (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kixi_Ob4hCM">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
When Your Fund Beats the Market, Ask: Which Market? - by Jason Zweig ($) (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/when-your-fund-beats-the-market-ask-which-market-11587740491">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Brent Beshore chats with Tobias Carlisle on The Acquirers Podcast (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+Q5M2W63ow">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Macro Voices Podcast: Hot Topic #14: Crude Oil BLACK SWAN ALERT with Jim Bianco (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+F9aZabHkA">LINK</a>)<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
Today's Audible Daily Deal is worthwhile: <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B011M8DBI6?ie=UTF8&tag=valuinvewor0c-20&camp=1789&linkCode=xm2&creativeASIN=B011M8DBI6">Skunk Works: A Personal Memoir of My Years of Lockheed</a></i><br />
<br />
The contenders – and challenges – in the race to cure Covid - by Matt Ridley (<a href="http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/race-to-cure-covid/">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
A Complete History of Pandemics - by Vaclav Smil (<a href="https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/a-complete-history-of-pandemics/">LINK</a>) [Excerpted from his 2008 book, <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B01JQG6OF8?ie=UTF8&tag=valuinvewor0c-20&camp=1789&linkCode=xm2&creativeASIN=B01JQG6OF8">Global Catastrophes and Trends: The Next 50 Years</a></i>.]<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Related previous post: <a href="https://www.valueinvestingworld.com/2020/04/vaclav-smil-on-pandemics-and-growth.html">Vaclav Smil on pandemics and growth</a></blockquote>
<div>
And for those analysts and aspiring analysts out there that may have missed the Friday afternoon post: <a href="https://www.valueinvestingworld.com/2020/04/behind-balance-sheet.html">Behind the Balance Sheet</a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><br />
<a href="https://sorfis.com/">
<img src="https://sorfis.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Sorfis-Logo-text-only-smaller-40-percent.png" alt="Sorfis Investments" width="123" height="52" border="0" />
</a></div>Joe Kosterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12142218976007046880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8836252454216313680.post-23402101437637867782020-04-24T11:44:00.001-04:002020-04-24T11:44:49.913-04:00Behind the Balance Sheet<div style="text-align: justify;">
Behind the Balance Sheet is an investment research and training consultancy. I watched its founder, Steve Clapham, <a href="https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-expert-view/videos/spotting-fraud-forensic-accounting-101">on Real Vision</a> earlier this year, and made a note to check out his online courses. While I hadn't yet gone and looked into them, Steve reached out to me to connect. After looking over his courses and a couple of recent blog posts ("<a href="https://www.behindthebalancesheet.com/blog-1/10-features-of-the-post-virus-investment-landscape">10 Features of the post-Virus Investment Landscape</a>" & "<a href="https://www.behindthebalancesheet.com/blog-1/amazons-free-cash-flow">Amazon's Free Cash Flow</a>"), I thought his work was worth highlighting here. </div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
Link to: <b><a href="https://courses.behindthebalancesheet.com/courses">Behind the Balance Sheet -- Courses</a></b></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
While Steve has given me access to some of the videos, I receive no other compensation for mentioning his work here. But I believe it may be worthwhile to some readers of this blog, and I think courses like this from experienced professionals will be a big part of the future of education in the world.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><br />
<a href="https://sorfis.com/">
<img src="https://sorfis.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Sorfis-Logo-text-only-smaller-40-percent.png" alt="Sorfis Investments" width="123" height="52" border="0" />
</a></div>Joe Kosterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12142218976007046880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8836252454216313680.post-47640056885333983852020-04-24T09:16:00.000-04:002020-04-24T11:11:18.012-04:00Links<div style="text-align: center;">
<i>"Unfortunately in this kind of work, where you are trying to determine relationships based upon past behavior, the almost invariable experience is that by the time you have had a long enough period to give you sufficient confidence in your form of measurement, just then new conditions supersede and the measurement is no longer dependable for the future." --Benjamin Graham ("<a href="https://jasonzweig.com/a-rediscovered-masterpiece-by-benjamin-graham/">Securities In An Insecure World</a>")</i></div>
<br />
Bill Gates on coronavirus: ‘It’s going to be a while before things go back to normal’ (video) (<a href="https://www.today.com/video/bill-gates-on-coronavirus-it-s-going-to-be-a-while-before-things-go-back-to-normal-82511941635">LINK</a>)<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Related article: <a href="https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/Pandemic-Innovation">The first modern pandemic - by Bill Gates</a></blockquote>
Horizon Kinetics Q1 Letter (<a href="https://horizonkinetics.com/wp-content/uploads/Q1-2020-CVALUE-Review_FINAL.pdf">LINK</a>) [Audio review available <a href="https://horizonkinetics.com/podcast/1st-quarter-2020-commentary/">HERE</a>.]<br />
<br />
Thoughts on Berkshire’s Deployable Cash (<a href="https://www.rationalwalk.com/thoughts-on-berkshires-deployable-cash/">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
A Historic Opportunity in Small Cap Stocks (<a href="https://osam.com/Commentary/a-historic-opportunity-in-small-cap">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
‘The American Tailwind’ - by Frank K. Martin (<a href="https://frank-k-martin.com/2020/04/24/american-tailwind/">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Paul Singer's April letter to Elliott investors (<a href="https://www.docdroid.net/kfBxxVh/elliot-letter-april-162020-perspectives-paul-singer-elliott-pdf">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Raoul Pal's April Global Macro Investor newsletter is now available for all to read (<a href="https://www.realvision.com/gmi">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Understanding Money, Credit, and Debt - by Ray Dalio (<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/money-credit-debt-ray-dalio/?published=t">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
BIS paper: Insurance regulatory measures in response to Covid-19 (<a href="https://www.bis.org/fsi/fsibriefs4.htm">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
My Restaurant Was My Life for 20 Years. Does the World Need It Anymore? (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/magazine/closing-prune-restaurant-covid.html">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
With 100,000 stores set to close by 2025, mall owners face this legal hurdle next (co-tenancy clauses) (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/coronavirus-will-speed-up-store-closures-what-landlords-need-to-watch-next.html">LINK</a>)<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
A Shift in Investment Strategies Post-Coronavirus — COVID-19 Virtual Roundtable (video) (<a href="https://www.axial.net/forum/a-shift-in-investment-strategies-post-coronavirus-covid-19-virtual-roundtable/">LINK</a>)</div>
<br />
Recode Media Podcast: Matthew Ball on how the pandemic will remake TV, movies and video games (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+QL2euH2y0">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
MacroVoices Podcast: #216 David Rosenberg: Stagflation is coming but not yet (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+F9aYJyRX4">LINK</a>)<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
How I Built This with Guy Raz (podcast): How I Built Resilience: Live With Guy and Simon Sinek (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+YsrZZPMu4">LINK</a>)<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
Conversations with Tyler (podcast): Philip E. Tetlock on Forecasting and Foraging as a Fox (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+PbpLR1Uu8">LINK</a>)</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
Infinite Loops Podcast: Morgan Housel – The Psychology of Money (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+VqteQuBEA/1:41">LINK</a>)<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Related book: <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0857197681?ie=UTF8&tag=valuinvewor0c-20&camp=1789&linkCode=xm2&creativeASIN=0857197681">The Psychology of Money: Timeless lessons on wealth, greed, and happiness</a></i></blockquote>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><br />
<a href="https://sorfis.com/">
<img src="https://sorfis.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Sorfis-Logo-text-only-smaller-40-percent.png" alt="Sorfis Investments" width="123" height="52" border="0" />
</a></div>Joe Kosterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12142218976007046880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8836252454216313680.post-15689674698965021202020-04-23T16:05:00.001-04:002020-04-23T16:05:28.366-04:00The first modern pandemic - by Bill GatesLink to: <a href="https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/Pandemic-Innovation">The first modern pandemic: The scientific advances we need to stop COVID-19.</a><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
The coronavirus pandemic pits all of humanity against the virus. The damage to health, wealth, and well-being has already been enormous. This is like a world war, except in this case, we’re all on the same side. Everyone can work together to learn about the disease and develop tools to fight it. I see global innovation as the key to limiting the damage. This includes innovations in testing, treatments, vaccines, and policies to limit the spread while minimizing the damage to economies and well-being. </div>
</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
This memo shares my view of the situation and how we can accelerate these innovations. (Because this post is long, it is also <a href="https://media.gatesnotes.com/-/media/Files/Health/Pandemic-I-The-First-Modern-Pandemic">available as a PDF</a>.) The situation changes every day, there is a lot of information available—much of it contradictory—and it can be hard to make sense of all the proposals and ideas you may hear about. It can also sound like we have all the scientific advances needed to re-open the economy, but in fact we do not. Although some of what’s below gets fairly technical, I hope it helps people make sense of what is happening, understand the innovations we still need, and make informed decisions about dealing with the pandemic.</div>
</blockquote>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><br />
<a href="https://sorfis.com/">
<img src="https://sorfis.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Sorfis-Logo-text-only-smaller-40-percent.png" alt="Sorfis Investments" width="123" height="52" border="0" />
</a></div>Joe Kosterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12142218976007046880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8836252454216313680.post-65723207279446912032020-04-22T15:45:00.000-04:002020-04-22T15:45:07.287-04:00Links<div style="text-align: center;">
<i>"If I think I can make very good money, as we did on Harley-Davidson, with a very simple decision, just a question of, 'Are they going to go broke or not?' as opposed to a tougher decision, 'Is the motorcycle market going to get diminished significantly? And, you know, are the margins going to get squeezed somewhat?' And all of that. I’ll go with a simple decision." --Warren Buffett</i> (<a href="https://buffett.cnbc.com/video/2010/05/01/morning-session---2010-berkshire-hathaway-annual-meeting.html">2010</a>)</div>
<br />
The Art of Survival - by Ian Cassel (video) (<a href="https://microcapclub.com/2020/04/the-art-of-survival/">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Giverny Capital 2019 Annual Letter to Partners (<a href="http://www.givernycapital.com/en/doc/236/Giverny_Capital_-_Annual_Letter_2019_web_.pdf">LINK</a>)<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
How Tech Can Build - by Ben Thompson (<a href="https://stratechery.com/2020/how-tech-can-build/">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
In the Coronavirus Era, the Force Is Still With Jack Dorsey (<a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/04/in-the-coronavirus-era-the-force-is-still-with-jack-dorsey">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
2015 article... That Time I Tried to Buy an Actual Barrel of Crude Oil (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-03/that-time-i-tried-to-buy-some-crude-oil">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Invest Like the Best Podcast: Manny Stotz - Frontier Markets Investing (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+Lzu3g5mdg/1:20">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
The Amish Health Care System [H/T <a href="https://twitter.com/jtepper2/status/1252517284490489858">@jtepper2</a>] (<a href="https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/20/the-amish-health-care-system/">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
PBS FRONTLINE: Coronavirus Pandemic (video) (<a href="https://youtu.be/4DJtjyB1gvE">LINK</a>)<br />
<br /><div class="blogger-post-footer"><br />
<a href="https://sorfis.com/">
<img src="https://sorfis.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Sorfis-Logo-text-only-smaller-40-percent.png" alt="Sorfis Investments" width="123" height="52" border="0" />
</a></div>Joe Kosterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12142218976007046880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8836252454216313680.post-84797967730661561702020-04-20T20:47:00.002-04:002020-04-20T20:47:53.483-04:00Links<div style="text-align: center;">
<i>"That's how history unfolds. People weave a web of meaning, believe in it with all their heart, but sooner or later the web unravels, and when we look back we cannot understand how anybody could have taken it seriously." --Yuval Noah Harari (<a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062464310?ie=UTF8&tag=valuinvewor0c-20&camp=1789&linkCode=xm2&creativeASIN=0062464310">Homo Deus</a>)</i></div>
<br />
Howard Marks says the stock market rebound is not reflecting reality (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/widely-followed-investor-howard-marks-says-the-stock-market-rebound-is-not-reflecting-reality.html">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Oil Plunges Below Zero for First Time in Unprecedented Wipeout (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-19/oil-drops-to-18-year-low-on-global-demand-crunch-storage-woes">LINK</a>)<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
Less Than Zero: What Oil's Crazy Day Means ($) (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/less-than-zero-what-oils-crazy-day-means-11587416603">LINK</a>)<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Kyle Bass on CNBC (video) (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbTB1VIFxCE">LINK</a>)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
Hin Leong Failed to Declare $800 Million Losses (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-19/hin-leong-is-said-to-have-failed-to-declare-800-million-losses">LINK</a>)</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
Esports and the Dangers of Serving at the Pleasure of a King - by Matthew Ball (<a href="https://www.matthewball.vc/all/esportsrisks">LINK</a>)</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
Book Notes: Whole Earth Discipline (<a href="https://futureblind.com/2020/04/19/book-notes-whole-earth-discipline/">LINK</a>)</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
Yes, Even Introverts Can Be Lonely Right Now - by Adam Grant (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/smarter-living/coronavirus-introverts-lonely.html">LINK</a>)</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
COVID-19: What’s wrong with the models? - by Peter Attia (<a href="https://peterattiamd.com/covid-19-whats-wrong-with-the-models/">LINK</a>)</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><br />
<a href="https://sorfis.com/">
<img src="https://sorfis.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Sorfis-Logo-text-only-smaller-40-percent.png" alt="Sorfis Investments" width="123" height="52" border="0" />
</a></div>Joe Kosterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12142218976007046880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8836252454216313680.post-26543092200023474112020-04-19T11:41:00.000-04:002020-04-19T11:44:17.072-04:00Links<div style="text-align: center;">
<i>"He who moves not forward, goes backward." --Goethe</i></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
IT'S TIME TO BUILD - by Marc Andreessen (<a href="https://a16z.com/2020/04/18/its-time-to-build/">LINK</a>)<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
Dispersion and Alpha Conversion: How Dispersion Creates the Opportunity to Express Skill - by Michael J. Mauboussin & Dan Callahan (<a href="https://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/dispersion-and-alpha-conversion.pdf?1586895497145">LINK</a>)<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
Masters in Business Podcast: James Montier on Fear and Investment (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+JWZSs7n9s/0:22">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Renaissance's $10 Billion Medallion Fund Gains 24% Year to Date in Tumultuous Market ($) (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/renaissance-s-10-billion-medallion-fund-gains-24-year-to-datein-tumultuous-market-11587152401">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Airbnb Defied the Odds of Startup Success. How Will It Survive a Pandemic? ($) (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/airbnb-defied-the-odds-of-startup-success-how-will-it-survive-a-pandemic-11587135820">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Calpers Unwound Hedges Just Before March’s Epic Stock Selloff ($) (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/calpers-unwound-hedges-just-before-marchs-epic-stock-selloff-11587211200">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Case Study of Tidewater and The Capital Cycle by John Chew (<a href="http://csinvesting.org/2020/04/09/case-study-on-capital-cycle-tidewater/">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
The Forgotten Man - by Frank K. Martin (<a href="https://frank-k-martin.com/2020/04/17/the-forgotten-man/">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
The Day of Reckoning for Private Equity - by Ted Seides (<a href="https://capitalallocatorspodcast.com/2020/04/16/the-day-of-reckoning-for-private-equity/">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Bloomberg Invest Talks: A Conversation with Ray Dalio (video) (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84DD6A9YTJc">LINK</a>)<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Kyle Bass: US & China Fallout & Recovery from COVID 19; Hong Kong Looming Banking Crisis (video) (<a href="https://youtu.be/exASOIXH8So">LINK</a>)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
Why Walking Matters—Now More Than Ever (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-walking-mattersnow-more-than-ever-11587182460">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Radiolab Podcast: The Cataclysm Sentence (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+It6KMU">LINK</a>)<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="text-align: justify;">
One day in 1961, the famous physicist Richard Feynman stepped in front of a Caltech lecture hall and posed this question to a group of undergraduate students: “If, in some cataclysm, all of scientific knowledge were to be destroyed, and only one sentence was passed on to the next generation of creatures, what statement would contain the most information in the fewest words?” Now, Feynman had an answer to his own question - a good one. But his question got the entire team at Radiolab wondering, what did his sentence leave out? So we posed Feynman’s cataclysm question to some of our favorite writers, artists, historians, futurists - all kinds of great thinkers. We asked them, “What’s the one sentence <i>you </i>would want to pass on to the next generation that would contain the most information in the fewest words?” What came back was an explosive collage of what it means to be alive right here and now, and what we want to say before we go.</blockquote>
<br /><div class="blogger-post-footer"><br />
<a href="https://sorfis.com/">
<img src="https://sorfis.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Sorfis-Logo-text-only-smaller-40-percent.png" alt="Sorfis Investments" width="123" height="52" border="0" />
</a></div>Joe Kosterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12142218976007046880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8836252454216313680.post-44135037932581264892020-04-17T09:54:00.000-04:002020-04-17T11:10:59.188-04:00LinksCharlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’ (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/charlie-munger-the-phone-is-not-ringing-off-the-hook-11587132006">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
"The Practice of Value Investing" by Li Lu (November 2019 speech, translated) (<a href="https://www.longriverinv.com/blog/the-practice-of-value-investing-by-li-lu">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Has This California Lab Fixed America’s Covid Test Problem? - by Michael Lewis (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-17/chan-zuckerberg-biohub-is-ready-for-coronavirus-tests-to-come">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Who Pays For This? - by Morgan Housel (<a href="https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/who-pays-for-this/">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Rob Arnott: Why the Stock Market Hasn't Even Gotten Cheap Yet (video) (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nufc8VtrmU">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
The NBA and Microsoft - by Ben Thompson (<a href="https://stratechery.com/2020/the-nba-and-microsoft/">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Mohnish Pabrai and Francis Chou Q&A with Harvard class (podcast) (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+WuDvM5nrM/0:18">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
Value Investing with Legends Podcast: Dan Davidowits & Jeff Mueller – Compounding with Polen Capital (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+RsQQ3NybE/2:50">LINK</a>)<br />
<br />
MacroVoices Podcast #215 - Chris Cole: Dragon portfolio revisited in the eye of the storm (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+F9aYWV3ys/18:14">LINK</a>)<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Related paper: "<a href="https://docsend.com/view/taygkbn">The Allegory of the Hawk and the Serpent</a>"</blockquote>
<div>
The Peter Attia Drive Podcast: #107 - John Barry: 1918 Spanish flu pandemic—historical account, parallels to today, and lessons (<a href="https://overcast.fm/+NmiRKMtjk/0:50">LINK</a>)</div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Related book: <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0143036491?ie=UTF8&tag=valuinvewor0c-20&camp=1789&linkCode=xm2&creativeASIN=0143036491">The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History</a></i></blockquote>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer"><br />
<a href="https://sorfis.com/">
<img src="https://sorfis.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Sorfis-Logo-text-only-smaller-40-percent.png" alt="Sorfis Investments" width="123" height="52" border="0" />
</a></div>Joe Kosterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12142218976007046880noreply@blogger.com