Thursday, January 31, 2019

Cruelty, recognition, and kindness

From How to Live: Or A Life of Montaigne in One Question and Twenty Attempts at an Answer:
Among less emotionally wrought readers, one much affected by Montaigne’s remarks on cruelty was Virginia Woolf’s husband, Leonard Woolf. In his memoirs, he held up Montaigne’s “On Cruelty” as a much more significant essay than people had realized. Montaigne, he wrote, was “the first person in the world to express this intense, personal horror of cruelty. He was, too, the first completely modern man.” The two were linked: Montaigne’s modernity resided precisely in his “intense awareness of and passionate interest in the individuality of himself and of all other human beings”—and nonhuman beings, too.

Even a pig or a mouse has, as Woolf put it, a feeling of being an “I” to itself. This was the very claim that Descartes had denied so strenuously, but Woolf arrived at it through personal experience rather than Cartesian reasoning.
... 
What brought this incident back to Woolf, as an adult, was reading Montaigne. He went on to apply the insight to politics, reflecting especially on his memory of the 1930s, when the world seemed about to sink into a barbarism that made no room for this small individual self. On a global scale, no single creature can be of much importance, he wrote, yet in another way these I’s are the only things of importance. And only a politics that recognizes them can offer hope for the future. 
Writing about consciousness, the psychologist William James had a similar instinct. We understand nothing of a dog’s experience: of “the rapture of bones under hedges, or smells of trees and lamp-posts.” They understand nothing of ours, when for example they watch us stare interminably at the pages of a book. Yet both states of consciousness share a certain quality: the “zest” or “tingle” which comes when one is completely absorbed in what one is doing. This tingle should enable us to recognize each other’s similarity even when the objects of our interest are different. Recognition, in turn, should lead to kindness. Forgetting this similarity is the worst political error, as well as the worst personal and moral one. 
In the view of William James, as of Leonard Woolf and Montaigne, we do not live immured in our separate perspectives, like Descartes in his room. We live porously and sociably. We can glide out of our own minds, if only for a few moments, in order to occupy another being’s point of view. This ability is the real meaning of “Be convivial,” this chapter’s answer to the question of how to live, and the best hope for civilization.

Wednesday, January 30, 2019

Howard Marks Memo: Political Reality Meets Economic Reality

Link to Memo: Political Reality Meets Economic Reality
The purpose of this memo is to describe what happens when political behavior collides with economic reality, as illustrated in one area where the government is taking steps – tariffs – and another in which debate among politicians is heating up – restrictions on the capitalist system.  
Before I move forward, I’d like to state up front, as I did in Economic Reality in 2016, that I’m not writing to make political judgments or to make any politician or party look bad.  But economic pronouncements can’t be separated from the people who make them.  If you read through to the end, you’ll see I find something to complain about in the approach of members of both parties. 

Links

"Intrinsic value is terribly important and very fuzzy, and we do our best to work...in the kind of businesses where we think that...our predictions are of a fairly highly probable nature. And that leaves out all kinds of companies." --Warren Buffett (2003)

"We have this simple, old-fashioned discipline, which Warren likens to Ted Williams waiting for a fat pitch. I don’t know about Warren, but if you said to me, 'Charlie, you can go into the business of managing money the way other people do, where you’re measured against indexes and you got consultants choosing consultants that are reviewing you to committees,' I would just hate it. I would regard it as being put into shackles. And shackles where the very system was preventing me from delivering value.... The general system for money management requires people to pretend that they can do something that they can’t do, and to pretend to like it when they really don’t." --Charlie Munger (2003)

Tributes to Jack Bogle (1929-2019) [H/T @jasonzweigwsj] (LINK)
We’ve collected the following tributes to Jack Bogle from among the authors who contribute to Advisor Perspectives and other prominent individuals in the investment industry.
Ben Graham: Just Plain Lucky? - by Vishal Khandelwal (LINK)

Why stock-plunges happen so often in Hong Kong (LINK) [Related video: High Table Talk with Mr David Webb]

The Vergecast (podcast): Fixing America’s internet, with Susan Crawford (LINK)
Related book: Fiber: The Coming Tech Revolution―and Why America Might Miss It
A Starfish-Killing Disease Is Remaking the Oceans - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Tuesday, January 29, 2019

Links

"We’re not really ever positioning ourselves. We’re simply trying to do the smartest thing we can every day when we come to the office. And if there’s nothing smart to do, cash is the default option." --Warren Buffett (2003)

Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb Q4 Letter (LINK)

Invest Like the Best Podcast: Alex Mittal – Early Stage Investing (LINK)

Making the world’s invisible people, visible - by Bill Gates (LINK)

How long is a day on Saturn? - by Phil Plait (LINK)

Monday, January 28, 2019

Links

"There is less risk in owning three easy-to-identify, wonderful businesses than there is in owning 50 well-known, big businesses.... If you find three wonderful businesses in your life, you’ll get very rich." --Warren Buffett (1996)

"If you’re right about the companies, you can hold them at pretty high values." --Charlie Munger (1996)

"We really have a great reluctance to sell businesses where we like both the business and the people. So I don’t think I’d count on seeing many sales. But if you ever attend a meeting here, and there are [holdings at] 60 or 70 times earnings, keep an eye on me.... You can really hold them at extraordinary levels if you’ve got [wonderful businesses]." --Warren Buffett (1996)

"Generally speaking, I think if you’re sure enough about a business being wonderful, it’s more important to be certain about the business being a wonderful business than it is to be certain that the price is not 10 percent too high or 5 percent too high or something of the sort." --Warren Buffett (1997)

"All intelligent investing is value investing. You have to acquire more than you really pay for, and that’s a value judgment. But you can look for more than you’re paying for in a lot of different ways. You can use filters to sift the investment universe. And if you stick with stocks that can’t possibly be wonderful to just put away in your safe deposit box for 40 years, but are underpriced, then you have to keep moving around all the time. As they get closer to what you think the real value is, you have to sell them, and then find others. And so, it’s an active kind of investing. The investing where you find a few great companies and just sit on your ass because you’ve correctly predicted the future, that is what it’s very nice to be good at." --Charlie Munger (2000)

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger on diversification (video excerpt from the 1996 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting) (LINK)
Related previous post: Charlie Munger on diversification
***

The BuzzFeed Lesson - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

Greenhaven Road Capital's Q4 Letter (LINK)

Horizon Kinetics Q4 Commentary [H/T @chriswmayer] (LINK) [There are also a bunch more Q4 investor letters posted HERE.]

For Bill Simmons’s The Ringer, Podcasting Is the Main Event ($) (LINK)

Patrick Collison, co-founder and CEO of Stripe, on EconTalk (podcast) (LINK)

Opportunity costs just went up - by Seth Godin (LINK)

Getting Ahead By Being Inefficient (LINK)

Sunday, January 27, 2019

Some comments from Buffett, Einhorn, and Marks in 2007 and 2008

"It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so." --Mark Twain

One of the benefits of having started this blog is that I can go back and see what I thought was interesting and/or worthy of attention over time. I have no idea how close we may be to the end of the historically long expansion we are in, or whether the still lofty market valuations will correct ahead of a downturn, but the temperature of things does seem to have changed somewhat over the last few months. 

So while I personally have no strong opinions, and am a firm believer in the near impossibility of trying to predicting anything macro, especially in regards to timing, I am confident that there will be plenty of reasonably-sounding opinions from people on all things related to the economy, stock market, and policy responses to any downward volatility that may surface.  

I thought it might be worthwhile to go back and review some things that I had on my radar leading up to the crisis of 2008-2009, mostly as a reminder to myself of the uncertainty and unpredictability of the future. There were a number people who were both roughly correct and others who were incredibly wrong, especially in regards to loading up on financials at the end of 2007 and the first part of 2008. While I didn't want to post everything I reviewed, especially since some of those that made the worst calls have recovered nicely since 2008, I did want to highlight three particular excerpts below that I thought were worth re-reading.

Warren Buffett, in an early April 2008 meeting with students:
How does the current turmoil stack up against past crises? 
Well, that's hard to say. Every one has so many variables in it. But there's no question that this time there's extreme leveraging and in some cases the extreme prices of residential housing or buyouts. You've got $20 trillion of residential real estate and you've got $11 trillion of mortgages, and a lot of that does not have a problem, but a lot of it does. In 2006 you had $330 billion of cash taken out in mortgage refinancings in the United States. That's a hell of a lot - I mean, we talk about having $150 billion of stimulus now, but that was $330 billion of stimulus. And that's just from prime mortgages. That's not from subprime mortgages. So leveraging up was one hell of a stimulus for the economy. 
If that was one hell of a stimulus, do you think the $150 billion government stimulus plan will make an impact? 
Well, it's $150 billion more than we'd have otherwise. But it's not like we haven't had stimulus. And then the simultaneous, more or less, LBO boom, which was called private equity this time. The abuses keep coming back - and the terms got terrible and all that. You've got a banking system that's hung up with lots of that. You've got a mortgage industry that's deleveraging, and it's going to be painful. 
The scenario you're describing suggests we're a long way from turning a corner. 
I think so. I mean, it seems everybody says it'll be short and shallow, but it looks like it's just the opposite. You know, deleveraging by its nature takes a lot of time, a lot of pain. And the consequences kind of roll through in different ways. Now, I don't invest a dime based on macro forecasts, so I don't think people should sell stocks because of that. I also don't think they should buy stocks because of that.
David Einhorn, in an early April 2008 speech at the Grant's Conference: 
The next question is whether the bail-out was a good idea. It really comes down to Coke vs. water. If you are thirsty you have choices. Coke tastes better and provides an immediate sugar rush and caffeinated stimulus, while quenching thirst. Water also quenches thirst, but it isn’t as stimulating. It purifies your body. It doesn’t make you fat and is much better for your long-term health. 
One of the things I have observed is that American financial markets have a very low pain threshold. Last fall, with the S&P 500 only a few percent off its all time high prices after  a  multi-year  bull  market,  certain  TV  commentators and market players were having daily tantrums demanding that the FED give them the financial  equivalent  of  Coke.  Other  parts  of  the  world endure  much  greater  swings  in  equity  values  without demanding relief from central planners.   
The FED responded by providing liquidity and lower rates. Even  so,  the  crisis  deepened.  So,  now  they  have  introduced the Big Gulp, also known as the Bear Stearns bailout, and an alphabet soup of extraordinary measures to support the current  system. If  that  doesn’t  turn  the  markets,  they  are threatening the financial equivalent of having the water utilities substitute Coke for water throughout the system.  
Last week Mr. Bernanke told Congress that he hopes that Bear Stearns is a one-time thing. In the short-term, it might be. If market participants accept as an article of faith that  the  FED  will  bail  them  out,  it  reinforces  risk-taking without the need for credit analysis. As night follows day, it is  certain  that  in  the  absence  of  tremendous  government regulation,  this  bailout  will  lead  to  a  new  and  potentially bigger  round  of  excessive  risk-taking.  If  Mr.  Bernanke is unlucky, the pay-back may come later in this cycle. If he is lucky, it will come in the next cycle.
Howard Marks, in September 2007
What Next? 
Lots of people are asking whether this is going to get ugly. Is this the beginning of a credit crunch? Will it lead to a recession? How bad will it get? When will the bottom be reached? How long will the recovery take? The answer’s simple: no one knows.  
Some of the psychological and technical preconditions for a challenging market environment have been met. The bubble of positive investor psychology has been pricked and could become seriously deflated. When others are aggressive, we should be worried, but when others are worried, we can be confident. That’s the essence of contrarianism, and by that standard these are better times.  
The easy-money machine has had some sand thrown in its gears and seems to be grinding to a halt. Previously, anyone could get any amount of money for any purpose. Right now, deserving borrowers are unable to obtain financing, and this could continue or get worse.
The outlook for the economy is murky, as usual. It continues to limp along, not growing strongly but not sagging. The big question surrounds the effect of the subprime crisis on consumers. Home prices are through rising. Home equity borrowing is probably finished for a while as a supporter of consumer spending. Ditto for the “wealth effect.” The reset of adjustable rate mortgages from artificially low teaser rates to full market rates over the next 18-24 months is likely to have a depressing effect on a large number of households, and thus on the economy. I would think furniture and auto manufacturers, building materials suppliers, retailers and financial institutions have seen their best days for a while. I consider the economy unpredictable, of course, and thus a lot of people’s answers will be more definite than mine. But not necessarily more correct.  
Everyone’s looking to the Fed to take action. Its last act – cutting the discount rate on August 17 – was largely symbolic but had a positive effect. A reduction of the federal funds rate would mean more, telling investors the Fed’s there to help, cutting the cost of borrowing and stimulating the economy. But it wouldn’t do much for banks’ balance sheets or willingness to lend. 
It’s my view that Bernanke would rather not cut rates. Stimulative action that looked like an investor bailout would contribute further to moral hazard and the expectation that the Fed will always protect investors on the downside. This is an unhealthy expectation, as each bailout encourages risk taking and thus increases the likelihood that another will be needed. But the Fed is being importuned for a rate cut, and there are few people to argue on the other side, for a good dose of unpleasant medicine. 
I’m usually cautious, so I might as well keep my record intact. The economy should weaken. Deals built on optimistic assumptions and paid for with a lot of borrowed money shouldn’t all thrive. Generous capital markets should not be expected to bail out ailing companies. Bargain hunters and distressed debt investors will have more to do. Eventually. But no one at Oaktree would advise you to act as if these views are sure to be correct. We certainly won’t. 

Charlie Munger on learning to be a great investor

A frequently asked question is, how do you learn to be a great investor? 
First of all, you have to understand your own nature, said Munger. "Each person has to play the game given his own marginal utility considerations and in a way that takes into account his own psychology. If losses are going to make you miserable—and some losses are inevitable—you might be wise to utilize a very conservative pattern of investment and saving all your life. So you have to adapt your strategy to your own nature and your own talents. I don't think there's a one-size-fits-all investment strategy that I can give you."   
Then, says Munger, you have to gather information. "I think both Warren and I learn more from the great business magazines than we do anywhere else," said Charlie. "It's such an easy, shorthand way of getting a vast variety of business experience just to riffle through issue after issue covering a great variety of businesses. And if you get into the mental habit of relating what you're reading to the basic structure of the underlying ideas being demonstrated, you gradually accumulate some wisdom about investing. I don't think you can get to be a really good investor over a broad range without doing a massive amount of reading. I don't think any one book will do it for you." 
...Munger explained that a person's reading should not be random: "...you have to have some idea of why you're looking for the information. Don't read annual reports the way Francis Bacon said you do science—which, by the way, is not the way you do science—where you just collect endless data and then only later do you try to make sense of it. You have to start with some ideas about reality. And then you have to look to see whether what you're seeing fits in with proven basic concepts. 
"Frequently, you'll look at a business having fabulous results. And the question is, How long can this continue?' Well, there's only one way I know to answer that. And that's to think about why the results are occurring now—and then to figure out the forces that could cause those results to stop occurring."  
This is the method of thinking that helps Munger and Buffett spot a company that has a franchise on a certain product, a so-called "moat" around its business. There are several examples of companies that have such a strong name brand that they seem invincible. Coca Cola has been such a company, though the challenges are relentless. Munger also uses the example of Wrigley's Chewing Gum.  
"It's such a huge advantage to be by far the best-known gum company in the world. Just think of how hard it would be to replace that image. If you know you like Wrigley's Gum and you see it there for two bits, are you really going to reach for Glotz's Gum because it's 20 cents and put something you don't know in your mouth? It's not worth it for you to think about buying an alternative gum. So it's easy to understand why Wrigley's Gum has such a huge advantage."  
Once you grasp the value of a company, then you have to decide how much the company is worth if you were buying it outright, or as in the case of the typical investor, simply buying a portion of the company on the stock market.  
"The trouble with the Wrigley Gum-type investments is that everybody can see that they're wonderful businesses. So you look at it and you think, My God! The thing's at eight times book value or something. And everything else is at three times book value.' So you think, 'I know it's wonderful, but is it wonderful enough to justify that big a premium?'"  
The ability to answer such questions explains why some people are successful investors and others are not.  
"On the other hand, if it weren't a little difficult, everybody would be rich," Munger insisted.

Friday, January 25, 2019

Links

"To the extent that the method of estimating future cash flow requires projections, I would say that projections, while they’re logically required by the circumstances, on average, do more harm than good in America. Most of them are put together by people who have an interest in a particular outcome. And the subconscious bias that goes into the process, and its apparent precision makes it...fatuous, or dishonorable, or foolish, or what have you. Mark Twain used to say a mine is a hole in the ground owned by a liar. And a projection prepared in America by anybody with a commission, or an executive trying to justify a particular course of action, will frequently be a lie. It’s not a deliberate lie, in most cases. The man has gotten to believe it himself. And that’s the worst kind.... Projections are to be handled with great care, particular when somebody has an interest in misleading you." --Charlie Munger (1995)

"Charlie and I, I think it’s fair to say, we’ve never looked at a projection in connection with either a security we’ve bought or a business we’ve bought. We’ve had them offered to us in great quantities.... We voluntarily turn them away when people try to thrust them upon us.... It’s a ritual that managers go through to justify doing what they wanted to do in the first place, in about nine cases out of ten." --Warren Buffett (1995)

"We don’t give a hoot about anybody’s projections. We don’t even want to hear about them, in terms of what they’re going to do in the future. We’ve never found any value in anything like that." --Warren Buffett (2003)

"Usually, I don’t use formal projections. I don’t let people do them for me because I don’t like throwing up on the desk (laughter), but I see them made in a very foolish way all the time, and many people believe in them, no matter how foolish they are. It’s an effective sales technique in America to put a foolish projection on a desk." --Charlie Munger (“Academic Economics: Strengths and Faults After Considering Interdisciplinary Needs”)

***

When Charlie Munger Calls, Listen and Learn ($) (LINK)
An unexpected phone call from Charlie Munger says at least as much about him as it does about you. 
Jacob Taylor, chief executive of Farnam Street Investments, a tiny asset-management firm in Folsom, Calif., was stunned when Mr. Munger—Warren Buffett’s business partner at Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and one of Mr. Taylor’s heroes—called him late last month. 
All investors should strive to match Mr. Munger’s focus, intensity and insatiable appetite for reading. He turned 95 on Jan. 1. 
Mr. Munger was calling to say that he had read the novel Mr. Taylor was about to self-publish, “The Rebel Allocator.” He was “surprisingly engaged,” recalls Mr. Taylor, 37, who had sent the book to Mr. Munger without much hope the great investor would read it. Mr. Munger proceeded to reel off roughly 20 minutes of unsolicited, detailed advice, mostly about plot and character.
GMO Quarterly Letter (LINK)
2018 was a lousy year for almost all assets, with no major asset class around the world able to keep pace with U.S. Treasury Bills. The poor returns have a silver lining, however, in that today a number of asset classes are priced at levels that embody much more achievable expectations and decent long-term returns. In general, it looks to be the best opportunity set we have seen since 2009. This means it is reasonably straightforward to put together a diversified portfolio priced to achieve something close to +5% real return. But as U.S. equities and nominal government bonds are not among the appealing assets, we believe the portfolio you should own today looks more or less nothing like a traditional 60% stock/40% bond portfolio. In particular, liquid alternatives now look poised to deliver attractive real returns and outperform developed equity markets in the coming years.
Jack Bogle: Crusader for Investment Professionalism (LINK)

Advertising is in crisis, but it's not because it doesn't work - by Rory Sutherland (LINK)

How To Be Successful - by Sam Altman (LINK)

Howard Schultz: Leading a Values-Based Business | MasterClass | Official Trailer [H/T @Sanjay__Bakshi] (LINK) [More info on the class HERE. Bob Woodward's class on investigative journalism would also probably be a useful class for the fundamental, value investor.]

Five Good Questions Podcast: Brent Beshore - The Messy Marketplace (LINK)

Exponent Podcast: Zeros All the Way Down (LINK)

TED Talk: A powerful way to unleash your natural creativity | Tim Harford (LINK)

One of Earth’s oldest rocks may have been found… on the Moon - by Phil Plait (LINK)

When Modern Men Throw Ancient Weapons - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Thursday, January 24, 2019

Links

"We don't consider ourselves good macro-forecasters (or even people who believe in forecasting).  So we certainly are in no position to say when the recession or market pullback will start, how bad it will be...or even that there definitely will be one.  But we think we're unlikely to be proved wrong if we say cyclicality is not at an end but rather is endemic to all markets, and that every up leg will be followed by a down leg." --Howard Marks (November 1996)

Billions to Bust: Lessons from the failure of some of India's biggest business names [H/T @Sanjay__Bakshi] (LINK)

A great review of the book The Myth of Capitalism (LINK)

The Biggest Returns - by Morgan Housel (LINK)

The Stay Rich Portfolio (or, How to Add 2% Yield to Your Savings Account) - by Meb Faber (LINK)

Not All Marketplaces are Created Equal: Tales of a Marketplace Founder [H/T @eugenewei] (LINK)

Fire in Venezuela - by Peter Zeihan (Part 1, Part 2)

BIS: Claudio Borio’s interview with Capital on debt (LINK)

The Skift Podcast: Megatrends Defining Travel in 2019 (LINK)

American Innovations Podcast: Rubber | Rubber Dreams | 1 (LINK)
In a world where materials were limited to wood, leather, metal, and cloth, rubber was something new: a substance that was strong, soft, flexible, and waterproof—but completely undependable. Then along came a 33 year-old hardware merchant named Charles Goodyear, who made it his personal mission to conquer rubber at any cost.
The Ezra Klein Show: Robert Sapolsky on the toxic intersection of poverty and stress (podcast) (LINK)
Related books: Behave: The Biology of Humans at Our Best and WorstWhy Zebras Don't Get Ulcers
The Tim Ferriss Show: Susan Cain — How to Overcome Fear and Embrace Creativity (podcast) (LINK)
Related book: Quiet: The Power of Introverts in a World That Can't Stop Talking
After Living Abroad, Kids Struggle With American Overparenting [H/T @paulg] (LINK)

We may finally know what causes Alzheimer’s – and how to stop it [H/T @paulg] (LINK)

Royal Astronomer Martin Rees' Long Now talk (video) (LINK)

TED Talk: What sticky sea creatures can teach us about making glue | Jonathan Wilker (LINK)

Why Whales, Seals, and Penguins Like Their Food Cold - by Ed Yong (LINK)

No One Is Prepared for Hagfish Slime - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Book of the day: The Ends of the World: Volcanic Apocalypses, Lethal Oceans, and Our Quest to Understand Earth's Past Mass Extinctions

***

For Audible Members, the current sale has some great titles included. The sale ends January 27th, and here are some of the names that stood out to me:

Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future

Living with a SEAL

Never Split the Difference










Man's Search for Meaning

Meditations

Wednesday, January 23, 2019

Links

"While investors will obviously achieve the best results by remaining rational thinkers at all times, this is easier said than done. In the financial markets, emotion often takes over, and greed and fear come to dominate investor behavior. Even those who are aware of this, who expect always to invest rationally and to be able to resist their own greedy temptations and panicky reactions, cannot always carry through on their plans." --Seth Klarman (January 2008)

The Investor Seth Klarman, in a Rare Interview, Offers a Warning. Davos Should Listen (LINK)

List of Q4 2018 Investor Letters (to be updated as more become available) [H/T @MineSafety10k] (LINK)

CNBC's Davos interviews with Bill Gates, Jamie DimonDara Khosrowshahi, and Carlos Brito.

Davos panel videos: Financial Innovation for Global Health (Bill Gates, et al.), Business Leadership in the Fourth Industrial Revolution, Safeguarding Our Planet, and more available HERE.

Silicon Valley’s Unbridled Optimism Gets Fresh Reality Check (LINK)

The Investing City Podcast -- Brent Beshore: Business as a Service (LINK)
Related book: The Messy Marketplace
The Bill Simmons Podcast: Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey (LINK)

Book of the day: Ackoff's Best: His Classic Writings on Management

Tuesday, January 22, 2019

Links

Seth Klarman: A Bleak Warning on Global Division and Debt (LINK) [I haven't seen Klarman's letter yet, but if anyone happens to have a copy they'd be willing to share, it would be greatly appreciated (valueinvestingworld@gmail.com).]

CNBC's Davos interviews with Ray DalioDavid RubensteinSteve Schwarzman, Jeff Ubben, and Marc Benioff.

Dalio, Weber on Rethinking Global Financial Risk: Davos Panel (video) (LINK)

Survival is the Ultimate Performance Measure of a Business - by Ian Cassel (LINK)

Invest Like the Best Podcast: Eugene Wei – Tech, Media, and Culture (LINK)

The Knowledge Project Podcat: Shane Parrish chats with Josh Wolfe (LINK)

Netflix Flexes - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

Yuval Noah Harari: Why We Dominate the Earth (LINK)

Sir David Attenborough discusses his life's work at Davos 2019 (video) (LINK)

Spectacular 3D simulation of a massive solar flare… from start to finish (LINK)

Monday, January 21, 2019

Links

"Reason is a tool, but character is based upon instincts and feelings into which reason seldom enters. Consequently, reason can not really be the dominant aspect of any age or any man. It’s an instinct." --Will Durant  [Via an interview included in between chapters on The Lessons of History audiobook, and also included in a fantastic transcript by Farnam Street.]

The most powerful person in Silicon Valley (LINK)
Billionaire Masayoshi Son–not Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, or Mark Zuckerberg–has the most audacious vision for an AI-powered utopia where machines control how we live. And he’s spending hundreds of billions of dollars to realize it. Are you ready to live in Masa World?
Schumpeter on Strategy - by Jerry Neumann [H/T @patrick_oshag] (LINK)

5G: if you build it, we will fill it - by Benedict Evans (LINK)

John Stuart Mill’s Ideas on Free Speech (LINK)

The Secrets of Lyndon Johnson’s Archives - by Robert A. Caro (LINK)

For ebook readers that don't yet have the book, Mastering the Market Cycle by Howard Marks is on sale for $2.99 this week.

Sunday, January 20, 2019

Survival first...

"Nature and history do not agree with our conceptions of good and bad; they define good as that which survives, and bad as that which goes under." --Will and Ariel Durant (The Lessons of History)

"The only definition of rationality that I’ve found that is practically, empirically, and mathematically rigorous is the following: what is rational is that which allows for survival. Unlike modern theories by psychosophasters, it maps to the classical way of thinking. Anything that hinders one’s survival at an individual, collective, tribal, or general level is, to me, irrational." --Nassim Taleb (Skin in the Game)

"Never forget about the man who was six-foot-tall, who drowned crossing the stream that was five feet deep on average. To be a successful investor, at minimum, you have to survive. Surviving on the good days is not the issue. You have to be able to survive on the bad days. The idea of surviving on average is not sufficient. You have to be able to survive on the worst days." --Howard Marks (interview on The James Altucher Show)

"My belief is: If you have not figured out the risk, then you shouldn't even think about the upside." --Weijian Shan (Real Vision interview)

"The first stop in Warren [Buffett]’s investing process is always to say, 'What are the odds that this business could be subject to any type of catastrophe risk—that could make it (the business) fail?' And if there is any chance that any significant part of his capital would be subject to catastrophe risk, he just stops thinking. NO. He just won’t go there. It is backwards the way most people think because most people find an interesting idea and figure out the math, they look at the financials, they do a projection and then at the end, they ask, 'What could go wrong?' Warren starts with what could go wrong." --Alice Schroeder  [In a talk discussing Warren Buffett's investing process.]

"The fundamental principle of auto racing is that to finish first, you must first finish. That dictum is equally applicable to business and guides our every action at Berkshire." --Warren Buffett (2010 Shareholder Letter)

Saturday, January 19, 2019

Links

"The unthinkable can always happen, and you have to run your affairs accordingly." --Peter Bernstein

On Jack Bogle (1929-2019) - by Jason Zweig (LINK)

A Lifetime of Systems Thinking - by Russell Ackoff (1999) [H/T @pcordway] (LINK)

Clayton Christensen: After 40 years studying innovation, here is what I have learned (LINK)

Exponent Podcast: Inverted Pyramids (LINK)

The Insulin Wars [H/T @Atul_Gawande] (LINK)

GMO White Paper: Is the U.S. Stock Market Bubble Bursting? A New Model Suggests 'Yes' (LINK)
  • A new model suggests that from early 2017 through much of 2018, the U.S. stock market was a bubble.
  • Driven by negative changes in sentiment, the bubble started to deflate in the fourth quarter of 2018, in spite of strong fundamentals.
  • Our advice, consistent with our portfolio positions established in Q1 2018 – as usual, we were early – is to own as little U.S. equity as your career risk allows.
Questions we hear a lot - by John Hussman (LINK) [And if you're not one to read the economic analysis, the talk by Martin Luther King Jr., "Loving Your Enemies," attached to the end is always a worthwhile read.]

Friday, January 18, 2019

Links

"I do think that there’s a lot to be said for developing a temperament that can own securities without fretting. I think that the fretful disposition is an enemy of long-term performance." --Charlie Munger (2003)

"I think it’s almost impossible...to do well in equities over a period of time if you go to bed every night thinking about the price of them. I mean, Charlie and I, we think about the value of them... Focusing on the price of a stock is dynamite, because it really means that you think that the stock market knows more than you do.... The stock market is there to serve you and not to instruct you." --Warren Buffett (2003)

Bill Gates: The Best Investment I’ve Ever Made (LINK)

In the Company of Greatness - by Frank K. Martin (LINK)

Billionaire Sam Zell Buys Gold for First Time in Bet on Tight Supply (LINK)

‘Bear Market’ Is an Arbitrary Label, but Using It Can Hurt - by Robert Shiller (LINK)

a16z Podcast: Pulse Check on Consumer Tech Trends 2019, CES and Beyond (LINK)

a16z Podcast: The Business of Cybercrime (LINK)

Five Good Questions: S4:E1 James Clear – Atomic Habits (LINK)

American Innovations Podcast: Bill Nye Wants to Save the World (LINK)

The Massive Mystery of Saturn’s Rings (LINK)

The Overlooked Organisms That Keep Challenging Our Assumptions About Life - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Thursday, January 17, 2019

RIP Jack Bogle

"If a statue is ever erected to honor the person who has done the most for American investors, the handsdown choice should be Jack Bogle.... In his early years, Jack was frequently mocked by the investment-management industry. Today, however, he has the satisfaction of knowing that he helped millions of investors realize far better returns on their savings than they otherwise would have earned. He is a hero to them and to me. --Warren Buffett (2016 Annual Letter)

John Bogle, who founded Vanguard and revolutionized retirement savings, dies at 89 (LINK)

Jason Zweig recounts Mr. Bogle's long and influential career (video) (LINK)

***

Back when I was first reading Jack Bogle's book Enough, I emailed him the following quote from Seneca that I thought was a perfect compliment to the things he had written about in his book: 
"What difference does it make how much there is laid away in a man's safe or in his barns, how many head of stock he grazes or how much capital he puts out at interest, if he is always after what is another's and only counts what he has yet to get, never what he has already. You ask what is the proper limit to a person's wealth? First, having what is essential, and second, having what is enough." 
Mr. Bogle was kind enough to both respond to my email as well as pass along some words of encouragement to a young man still early on in his investment career. A short while later, I came across another quote that reminded me of his book, and again passed it along. Though not quite as fitting as the one above, it was a longer quote from Arthur Schopenhauer:
"It is difficult, if not impossible, to define the limits which reason should impose on the desire for wealth; for there is no absolute or definite amount of wealth which will satisfy a man. The amount is always relative, that is to say, just so much as will maintain the proportion between what he wants and what he gets; for to measure a man's happiness only by what he gets, and not also by what he expects to get, is as futile as to try and express a fraction which shall have a numerator but no denominator. A man never feels the loss of things which it never occurs to him to ask for; he is just as happy without them; whilst another, who may have a hundred times as much, feels miserable because he has not got the one thing he wants. In fact, here too, every man has an horizon of his own, and he will expect as much as he thinks it is possible for him to get. If an object within his horizon looks as though he could confidently reckon on getting it, he is happy; but if difficulties come in the way, he is miserable. What lies beyond his horizon has no effect at all upon him. So it is that the vast possessions of the rich do not agitate the poor, and conversely, that a wealthy man is not consoled by all his wealth for the failure of his hopes. Riches, one may say, are like sea-water; the more you drink the thirstier you become; and the same is true of fame."
He once again replied with kindness and, as he put it, delight that those of us who digested his work made interesting connections to other things. And as I look back at the quotes above, they once again seem fitting ways to describe a great man that gave far more than he took from the world, and was always happy with having enough.

***

And since it's only fitting to let Mr. Bogle have the last word, let's go back to the inaugural issue of CFA Magazine (Jan/Feb 2003). Charley Ellis moderated a panel of investing greats (Bernstein, Bogle, Brinson, Buffett, LeBaron, Neff, and Templeton), and the final question he asked the panel was: "Given the option to say whatever you would like to say that, 30 years from now, bright, young people would be sitting down and reading, saying 'Gee, I'm glad I was able to read this particular thought,' what would that thought be?" Bogle's reply, which was the last among the panel members: 
"First, put the client’s interest ahead of your own, and, one day at a time, help to make this field of investing more of a profession and less of a business. Second, learn every day, but especially learn from the experiences of others. It’s cheaper! And third, never, never lose your idealism, no matter how rough your career might be, and never lose faith in your nation."

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Links

Case Studies of Companies That Do Capital Allocation Right - by Phil Ordway (LINK)

Cummins: Diesel Engine Maker with Shareholder-Friendly Management - by Chris Bloomstran (LINK)

What Does An Intelligent Fanatic Look Like? - Ian Cassel (video) (LINK)

Brent Beshore's 2018 Year In Review: Serving the Six-Sided Teeter Totter (LINK)

O’Shaughnessy Quarterly Investor Letter Q4 2018 (LINK)

Lawrence Cunningham NACD 2018 Lifetime Achievement Award (video) (LINK)

WeWork’s CEO Makes Millions as Landlord to WeWork (LINK)

How a Behavioral Scientist Optimizes His Monthly Cashflow (LINK)

a16z Podcast: Dark Data in Healthcare (LINK)

Glossier CEO Emily Weiss on the “art and science” of the beauty business (LINK)

Peter Diamandis: "Exploring Exponential Technologies" | Talks at Google (LINK)

Tidying Up: Marie Kondo on her Netflix show, the KonMari method, and why folding "sparks joy." (video) (LINK)

Charlie Munger on diversification

From the 2008 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting:
Students of America go to these elite business schools and law schools and they learn corporate finance the way it’s now taught and investment management the way it’s now taught.
And some of these people write articles in the newspaper and other places and they say, “Well, the whole secret of investment is diversification.” That’s the mantra. 
They’ve got it exactly back-ass-ward. The whole secret of investment is to find places where it’s safe and wise to non-diversify. It’s just that simple. 
Diversification is for the know-nothing investor; it’s not for the professional. 
....................

Related previous posts:

Warren Buffett on Diversification - 1966

Warren Buffett on Diversification (1998)

Phil Fisher on diversification

More from Phil Fisher on diversification

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger on portfolio concentration, and having the right temperament for it

Seth Klarman on position sizing (bottom paragraph)

Mohnish Pabrai on position sizing

Generalizing the Kelly Criterion

A quick diversification thought...

A few comments on the Berkshire Hathaway letter to shareholders

Tuesday, January 15, 2019

Links

"Patience is bitter, but its fruit is sweet." --Aristotle

Hedge Fund Baupost Has a Complex $1 Billion Bet on PG&E (LINK)

The 30 Best Pieces of Advice for Entrepreneurs in 2018 [H/T @BrentBeshore] (LINK)

Do Stocks Do the Worst Before or During Recessions? (LINK)

Samuel Andrews: The Man With the Billion Dollar Ego (LINK)

Invest Like the Best Podcast: Michael Duda – Investing In Brands (LINK)

Ben Thompson talks to John Gruber about Apple, and other tech (podcast) (LINK)

The History of Blood [H/T @oraunak] (LINK)

Books of the day (recommended by Khosla Ventures partner Keith Rabois in his chat with Kara Swisher):

Churchill: Walking with Destiny

The Breakthrough: Immunotherapy and the Race to Cure Cancer

The Last Days of Night

Monday, January 14, 2019

Links

Jake Taylor's book, The Rebel Allocator, has just been released, and I'm really looking forward to reading it. Jake is the man behind the Five Good Questions interviews, and Jake's book is his mission to distill some key lessons on capital allocation that he's learned from Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and the other greats that many of us follow into a fictional, story format that will be interesting to a wider audience, as well as to those of us in the investing world. As Jake described it in an interview
I was working hard on a non-fiction guide to proper capital allocation. It felt like different books, podcasts, and conversations at that time were telling me I needed to write a fictional story if there was any chance of my book still mattering in ten years. The emotion of a story is all that persists. Around that same time I lost a close friend my age to a tragic hiking accident. It was a wake up call. If I were to disappear tomorrow, what kind of book would I want to leave as a literary legacy for my two young boys? It certainly wasn’t a dry, non-fiction, vanity project that no one would care about in six months. I had to try something radically different and tell a story. This lead to researching hero’s journeys and even screenplay writing to learn about character arcs and dynamic pacing to engage the reader. I hope the book reads a little like watching a movie.

***

John Hempton reviews the book The Myth of Capitalism (LINK)

What Amazon’s Rise to No. 1 Says About the Stock Market - by Jason Zweig (LINK)

AWS, MongoDB, and the Economic Realities of Open Source - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

How Aging Japan Defied Demographics and Revived Its Economy - by Greg Ip (LINK)

Back to Class: A Teaching Manifesto! - by Aswath Damodaran (LINK)

Dan Carlin's Hardcore History Podcast: 63 - Supernova in the East II (LINK)

Brent Beshore on The Learning Leader Show (podcast) (LINK)
Related book: The Messy Marketplace
60 Minutes video: Facial and emotional recognition; how one man is advancing artificial intelligence (LINK)

a16z Podcast: All About Synthetic Biology (LINK)

a16z Podcast: The Science and Business of Innovative Medicines (LINK)

Cal Newport on The Ezra Klein Show (podcast) (LINK)
Related book: Digital Minimalism
A review of “The Big One,” a new podcast from the Southern California NPR station KPCC about the potential devastation an earthquake could cause in Los Angeles (LINK)

What Happens When the President Doesn’t Have a Science Adviser - by Ed Yong (LINK)

A cool video of New York City in 1911 [H/T @Jesse_Livermore] (LINK)

Friday, January 11, 2019

Links

"It makes more sense...to buy a wonderful business at a fair price, than a fair business at a wonderful price.... I’ve changed my focus...over the years in that direction.... It’s not hard when you watch businesses for 50 years...to learn a few things about them, as to where the big money can be made. Now, you say when did it happen? It’s very interesting on that. Because what happens, even when you’re getting a new, important idea, is that the old ideas are still there. So there’s this flickering in and out of things. I mean, there was not a strong, bright red line of demarcation where we went from cigar butts to wonderful companies.... But we moved in that direction, occasionally moved back, because there is money made in cigar butts. But overall, we’ve kept moving in the direction of better and better companies." --Warren Buffett (2003)

Rob Vinall's 2018 investor letter [registration required] (LINK)

Brent Beshore on the Tropical MBA Podcast (LINK)
Related book: The Messy Marketplace
David Marcus: Great Owner-Operators in Europe (audio) (LINK)

Notes From Sohn London Investment Conference (LINK)

Why Some Platforms Thrive and Others Don’t [H/T @FourFilters] (LINK)

Blockchain Can Wrest the Internet From Corporations' Grasp - by Chris Dixon (LINK)

Misunderstanding Liquidity, Misunderstanding QT [H/T @modestproposal1] (LINK)

You Can’t Debunk MMT - by Cullen Roche (LINK)

Bob Rodriguez: Recent Market Turmoil a 'Preamble' to Bigger Crisis [H/T @jessefelder] (LINK)

RA Conversations: The Flattening Yield Curve (LINK)

Chris Cole on the Macro Voices Podcast (LINK)

Exponent Podcast: Episode 158 — A Significant Shift (LINK)

What’s Next for Education Startups (LINK)

Recode Media with Peter Kafka: Harvard’s Susan Crawford on the importance of fiber internet (podcast) (LINK)
Related book: Fiber: The Coming Tech Revolution―and Why America Might Miss It
High-performance medicine: the convergence of human and artificial intelligence - by Eric J. Topol (LINK)

Edge #525: Judith Rich Harris: 1938 - 2018 (LINK)

Plants Can Hear Animals Using Their Flowers - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Thursday, January 10, 2019

NOVA: Apollo's Daring Mission

Apollo astronauts and engineers tell the inside story of Apollo 8, the first manned mission to the moon. The U.S. space program suffered a bitter setback when Apollo 1 ended in a deadly fire during a pre-launch run-through. In disarray, and threatened by the prospect of a Soviet Union victory in the space race, NASA decided upon a radical and risky change of plan: turn Apollo 8 from an earth-orbit mission into a daring sprint to the moon while relying on untried new technologies. Fifty years after the historic mission, the Apollo 8 astronauts and engineers recount the feats of engineering that paved the way to the moon.


Link to video

....................

Related book: Rocket Men: The Daring Odyssey of Apollo 8 and the Astronauts Who Made Man's First Journey to the Moon

Wednesday, January 9, 2019

Links

"The only way to be loved is to be lovable.... But the nice thing about it, of course, is that...you always get back more than you give. I don’t know whether it was Oscar Hammerstein or who said,... 'A bell’s not a bell till you ring it, a song’s not a song till you sing it. Love in the heart isn’t put there to stay. Love isn’t love till you give it away.' And basically you’ll always get back more than you give away. And if you don’t give any, you don’t get any. It’s very simple." --Warren Buffett (2003)

Things I’m Pretty Sure About - by Morgan Housel (LINK)

Managing reputation in the age of infinity - by Seth Godin (LINK)

Why Regulators Went Soft on Monopolies - by Jonathan Tepper (LINK)

Strong and Weak Technologies - by Chris Dixon (LINK)

a16z Podcast: What’s Next for Marketplace Startups (Hint: Services) (LINK)

Vinod Khosla on How to Build the Future (video) (LINK)

10% Happier Podcast: Oliver Burkeman, The Power of Negative Thinking (LINK)

The French Burglar Who Pulled Off His Generation’s Biggest Art Heist [H/T @oraunak] (LINK)

The World Shifts When a Black Widow Squats - by Ed Yong (LINK)

I finally got around to listening to Joe Rogan's podcast with Matthew Walker discussing his book Why We Sleep, and there is a bunch of interesting information and tips in the episode. It also looks like there are some good notes on the key ideas from the podcast HERE.

"It's not just that you...go to sleep and you replay and you hit the save button on these new memories;  you actually sculpt out those memories and you improve them. And we've done some of these with motor skill learning, critical for athletic performance, and practice does not make perfect—practice with a night of sleep is what makes perfect, because you come back the next day and you're 20 to 30% better in terms of your skilled performance than where you were at the end of your practice session the day before. Sleep is the greatest, legal performance-enhancing drug that most people are probably neglecting in sport.... Skill learning, memory and then also...in the body all over—the recuperative benefits. And you can flip a coin, by the way, if you're getting 6 hours of sleep or less, your time to physical exhaustion drops by up to 30%.... [You should get] somewhere between 7 to 9 hours [of sleep]. Once you get below 7 hours of sleep we can measure objective impairments in your brain and your body " --Matthew Walker

Tuesday, January 8, 2019

Links

"We don’t buy hula-hoop companies or pet rock companies, and we don’t buy companies in industries that we think will have great explosions in demand, but where we don’t know who the winners will be. So we...like to think we’re looking a long way into the future." --Warren Buffett (2003)

Joel Greenblatt – Great Value Investors Need To Be Cold Hearted JellyBean Counters (LINK)

Robert J. Shiller on Bubbles, Reflexivity, and Narrative Economics (LINK)

Robert Shiller: market narratives are 'like diseases' (FT Alphachat Podcast) (LINK)

Abby Johnson – Future of Finance (Invest Like the Best Podcast) (LINK)

David Rubenstein: The Importance of Having a Good 2nd and 3rd Life (The James Altucher Show) (LINK)

Apollo Asia Fund: the manager's report for 4Q18 (LINK)

A couple of good Herb Kelleher interviews from 2003 and from 2004.  [H/T @pcordway]

Bots, britches, and bees - by Bill Gates (LINK)

How Corning Makes Fiber-Optic Cable (LINK)
Related book: Fiber: The Coming Tech Revolution―and Why America Might Miss It
WeWork Gets Less Money, Shorter Name (LINK)

How to Do Great Things (LINK)

Seven Big Ideas from Fooled by Randomness (LINK)

Taleb the Philosopher [H/T @chriswmayer] (LINK)

Animals Keep Creating Mysteries by Sounding Weird - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Stephen Hawking's Favorite Places (Episode 1) (LINK)
By the time we finished filming what would become his final complete series, he felt as if he was one step closer to his goal. To celebrate his birthday and lifetime of achievements, please enjoy the first episode of our Emmy® award-winning series, Stephen Hawking's Favorite Places, at no charge and with no login required.

Monday, January 7, 2019

Links

"This effort to explain life through the recognition of patterns—and thus to come up with winning formulas—is complicated, in large part, because we live in a world that is beset by randomness and in which people don’t behave the same from one instance to the next, even when they intend to. The realization that past events were largely affected by these things—and thus that future events aren’t fully predictable—is unpleasant, as it makes life less subject to anticipation, rule-making and rendering safe. Thus people search for explanations that would make events understandable . . . often to an extent beyond that which is appropriate. This is as true in investing as it is in other aspects of life." --Howard Marks, "Mastering the Market Cycle"

Apple’s Errors -  by Ben Thompson (LINK)

The Quarterly Guidance Trap Bites Apple (LINK)

WSJ Investigation: China Offered to Bail Out Troubled Malaysian Fund in Return for Deals ($) (LINK)

How China Could Challenge the Boeing-Airbus Duopoly (LINK)

Shane Parrish on The Art of Manliness Podcast (LINK)

Is Marijuana as Safe as We Think? - by Malcolm Gladwell (LINK)

Malcolm Gladwell on the Longform podcast (LINK)

The ETF Story (podcasts) [H/T Ritholtz] (LINK)
The creation story of the first exchange-traded fund is actually the best way to understand how they work. And it's not just educational, it's entertaining. Like the PC and the MP3, the story of the creation of SPY -- which turned 30 this year -- is full of characters, twists and turns, and subplots. In the end, the product launched an industry that's reshaping not just investing but the entire financial ecosystem. This six-episode miniseries will weave together interviews with the founding fathers and other key players that help investors better understand the ETF and how we got here.

Sunday, January 6, 2019

Links

"When things go bad, all kinds of things correlate that no one ever dreamed correlated.... And there’s nothing more deadly than unrecognized concentrations of risk, but it happens all the time." --Warren Buffett (2003)

Only two things matter for the stock market. Donald Trump is not one of them. - by Roger Lowenstein (LINK)

Have I Got a Fund For You! Why Brokers Push Some Investments - by Jason Zweig (LINK)

The 20%-a-Year Stock Picker Who Wishes His Edge Would Disappear (LINK)

Jeff Bezos and Jamie Dimon: Best of Frenemies (LINK)

How to Lose Tens of Thousands of Dollars on Amazon (LINK)
A growing number of self-proclaimed experts promise they can teach anyone how to make a passive income selling cheap Chinese goods in the internet's largest store. Not everyone’s getting rich quick.
The $9 Billion Upcharge: How Insurers Kept Extra Cash from Medicare (LINK)

The Race to Diagnose Cancer With a Simple Blood Test (LINK)

The Bond That’s Still Paying Interest, 280 Years Later (LINK)

Looking Back on the Last 40 Years of Reforms in China - by Ray Dalio (LINK)

A Dearth of Physician Innovators Can Derail New Biomedical Startups (LINK)

Naval Ravikant and Kapil Gupta: The truth about hard work (podcast) (LINK)

How Millennials Became The Burnout Generation (LINK)

Three big insights into our African origins - by John Hawks (LINK)

Friday, January 4, 2019

Links

A big thanks to the friend that pointed out that the horse story from yesterday's post was from Howard Marks and not Charlie Munger. I have the Marks story highlighted and starred in my copy of Peter Bevelin's book All I Want To Know Is Where I'm Going To Die So I'll Never Go There (p.62) that I recently reviewed, but somehow had it in my head as a Munger story. At any rate, I added that book excerpt to yesterday's post. That same section in Peter's book also has a great Confucius quote along the same lines:

"The superior man, when resting in safety, does not forget that danger may come. When in a state of security he does not forget the possibility of ruin. When all is orderly, he does not forget that disorder may come. Thus his person is not endangered, and his States and all their clans are preserved." --Confucius

***

Risk is Where You're Not Looking - by Steven Romick, Abhijeet Patwardhan, Thomas Atteberry (January 2, 2019) [H/T Linc] (LINK)

From the archives.... Why Value Investors Are Different - by Seth Klarman (Feb 1999) [H/T @FocusedCompound] (LINK)

From Ben Thompson in May 2017, and worth a re-read after the Apple news this week.... Apple’s China Problem

Wild Expectations - by Morgan Housel (LINK)

How the Co-op King of New York Earned His Crown (podcast and transcript) [H/T Eli] (LINK)
Related book: Risk Game: Self Portrait of an Entrepreneur
How I Built This podcast: Remembering Herb Kelleher (LINK)
The co-founder and former CEO of Southwest Airlines, Herb Kelleher, has died. He was 87. We are grateful Herb shared his story with us in 2016. We are republishing it as a tribute to his life and career, in which he transformed the US airline industry.
Unborn Baby Shark Filmed Swimming Around Inside Its Mother - by Ed Yong (LINK)