Thanks to Will for passing this along.
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Related link: Clayton Christensen on
Charlie Rose
Related books:
Related previous posts:
“As 30 year German bund yields slide below 2% and rapidly converge towards Japanese rates, we have a taster of what is to come in the US and UK in the months ahead. We still see US 10 year yields - even now making new all-time lows - falling below 1% as hard landings occur in china and the US. The secular equity valuation bear market began in 2000 and renewed global recession will be the trigger to catalyse the third and hopefully final, gut-wrenching phase of valuation de-rating. Expect the S&P 500 to decline decisively below its March 2009, 666 intra-day low. All hope will be crushed.”
“Amid the chaos, there is opportunity. The European cyclically-adjusted PE (CAPE) is back down to rock-bottom valuations, consistent with the bottom of previous long-term valuation bear markets and lower than that seen in March 2009. Investors are reluctant to invest amid all the ongoing chaos in the eurozone. But the macro backdrop ALWAYS looks awful when the market is this cheap. There are no such things as toxic assets, only toxic prices.”
Dalio says if you have 15 or more good, uncorrelated bets, you will improve your return to risk ratio by a factor of five. He calls this the holy grail of investing. “If you can do this thing successfully, you will make a fortune,” he says. “You’ll get the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.”