Wednesday, December 26, 2018


"While  it  is always tempting to try to time the market and wait for the bottom to be reached (as if  it  would  be  obvious  when  it  arrived), such a strategy has proven over the years to  be  deeply  flawed.  Historically,  little volume transacts at the bottom or on the way back up, and competition from other buyers  will  be  much  greater  when  the markets  settle  down  and  the  economy begins  to  recover.  Moreover,  the  price recovery from a bottom can be very swift. Therefore, an investor should put money to work amidst the throes of a bear market, appreciating that things will likely get worse before they get better." --Seth Klarman [2008 investor letter]

I Used to Write for Sports Illustrated. Now I Deliver Packages for Amazon. (LINK)

How Allbirds Became A $1.4 Billion Sneaker Start-Up (video) [H/T @ayushmitt] (LINK)

Citron Research report on Facebook [H/T @ivan_brussels] (LINK)

The Fast and the Furious - by John Hussman (LINK) [Published early this morning.]
While we don’t presently observe conditions to indicate a “buying opportunity” or a “bottom” from a full-cycle standpoint, we do observe conditions that are permissive of a scorching market rebound, even if it only turns out to be the “fast, furious, prone to failure” variety. I say “permissive” because there is no certainty about a rebound, and we wouldn’t dream of removing our safety nets against a market decline that I continue to expect to draw the S&P 500 toward the 1000 level by the completion of this cycle. Still, we’ve prepared for the possibility of unusual volatility here, most likely including one or more daily moves in the range of 4-6%, potentially to the upside. Yes, that means one or more daily moves on the order of 100-150 points on the S&P 500 and 900-1300 points on the Dow. You think I’m kidding.
EconTalk Podcast: Mariana Mazzucato on the Value of Everything (LINK)
Related book: The Value of Everything: Making and Taking in the Global Economy
a16z Podcast: How the Internet Happened (LINK)
Related book: How the Internet Happened: From Netscape to the iPhone
Adam Robinson chats with Shane Parrish on the The Knowledge Project Podcast (Part 2) (LINK)

Sam McBride: "Building RXBAR" | Talks at Google (LINK)

The Relentlessness of Modern Parenting (LINK)

99 Good News Stories You Probably Didn’t Hear About in 2018 [H/T @AlexRubalcava] (LINK)

How to Develop Better Habits in 2019 - by Ryan Holiday (LINK)