Wednesday, December 5, 2018


"What makes common stock prices so hard to predict is that a general liquid market for common stocks creates, from time to time, either in sectors of the market or in the whole market, a Ponzi scheme. In other words, you have an automatic process where people get sucked in and other people come in because it worked last month or last year. And it can build to perfectly ridiculous levels, and the levels can last for considerable periods. Trying to predict that kind of thing, sort of a Ponzi scheme which is, if you will, accidentally thrown into the valuation of common stocks by just the forces of life, by definition that’s going to be very, very hard to predict. But that’s what makes it so dangerous to short stocks, even when they’re grossly overvalued. It’s hard to know just how overvalued they can become in addition to the overvaluation that exists. " --Charlie Munger (2002 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting)

John Huber's long thesis on Facebook (LINK)

Gabriel Grego's short thesis pitch on Aphria at the Kase Learning Shorting Conference (Video, Slides)

Chris Brown's short thesis pitch on Tilray at the Kase Learning Shorting Conference (Slides)

Morgan Creek Capital Management - Q3 2018 Market Review & Outlook Letter (LINK)

The Absolute Return Letter, December 2018: The Art of Defaulting (LINK)

Eddie Lampert Shattered Sears, Sullied His Reputation, and Lost Billions of Dollars. Or Did He? [H/T Linc] (LINK)

Drip, Drip, Drip - by Morgan Housel (LINK)

Hitting the Pause Button - by Frank K. Martin (LINK)

Do I Deserve What I Have? Part II - by Russ Roberts (LINK)

a16z Video: When Advertising Isn’t Enough (LINK)

oGoLead Leadership Podcast: Paul Varga, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Brown Forman (LINK)

It’s Time to Study Whether Eating Particular Diets Can Help Heal Us - by Siddhartha Mukherjee (LINK)

Subtract - by Derek Sivers (LINK)

"The difference between successful people and really successful people is that really successful people say no to almost everything." --Warren Buffett