Links

"Now the search expenses that brought us Ajit Jain, now there was an investment that really paid a dividend. I can think of no higher return investment that we’ve ever made that was better than that one. And I think that’s a good life lesson. In other words, getting the right people into your system can frequently be more important than anything else." --Charlie Munger (2005)

GMO Quarterly Letter: Stop Worrying About Your Portfolio (LINK)

Notes From Sohn New York Investment Conference 2019 (LINK)

Google Fights Back - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

Matthew Ball's latest articles (parts 6 and 7) on Netflix misunderstandings came out last week.... Here are links to all 7 parts to date (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5, Part 6, Part 7)

Against the Rules with Michael Lewis (podcast): Baby Judge School (LINK)

Invest Like the Best Podcast: Stephanie Cohen – The Evolution of M&A and Corporate Strategy (LINK)

Mr. Rogers’ Nine Rules for Speaking to Children (LINK)

Will You Choose Alive Time or Dead Time? - by Ryan Holiday (LINK)

The Birth-Tissue Profiteers - by Caroline Chen (LINK)

Links

Charlie Munger in 2002, in response to a question about the mistake Berkshire made acquiring Dexter Shoe: 

"That shows, which is important to show, that no matter how hard you work at having systems for avoiding error and practices of trying to stay within your circle of competency, et cetera, et cetera, you still make mistakes."

***

What You Can Learn From One of Warren Buffett’s Smartest Investors - by Jason Zweig (LINK)

Here’s What Warren Buffett Sends to a Select Group of People at Christmas - by Carol Loomis [H/T Linc] (LINK)

Ajit Jain buys $20 million of Berkshire Hathaway’s shares (LINK)

Berkshire Hathaway’s Ajit Jain bought about $20 million of stock on Dec. 18, according to a regulatory filing on Thursday. 

The move was in A shares, the ones that trade around $288,000 each. The filing said the purchases were done in multiple transactions at prices ranging from $295,750 to $297,000 a share. The move could be interpreted as a sign of confidence as the stock market continued its multi-day plunge to fresh lows for the year.

Howard Marks: UCLA Anderson Fink Center "Mastering the Market Cycle" (video) (LINK)

During a standing-room only interview at UCLA Anderson on October 11, 2018, living investment legend Howard Marks encouraged investors of all experience levels to develop a keen observation of cyclical indicators and historic market patterns to manifest opportunities. 

Howard Marks: CAIA / CFA / HKSFA Hong Kong (video) (LINK)

Howard Marks, Co-Chairman, speaks with Ms. Teresa Han at an event co-hosted by CAIA / CFA / HKSFA / Oaktree in Hong Kong. (Recorded on October 26, 2018)

‘Canada’s Warren Buffett’ Drives His Own Pickup Truck [H/T Linc] (LINK)

On the road with billionaire Jim Pattison.

Michael Shearn: Invest in Leadership [H/T @iancassel] (LINK)

Investing Lessons from Bill Browder [H/T @iancassel] (LINK)

David Tepper: Fed is done supporting stock prices, so cash is ‘not so bad’ as an investment now [From Thursday morning] (LINK)

It’s Not Time to Panic (Yet) - by Cullen Roche (LINK)

Demon Underneath: John DeLorean and the invention of the future [H/T @jtepper2] (LINK)

Long before Elon Musk, a visionary automaker showed how ugly the American Dream could be.

Weaving Magic Unravels in Woolrich, Pa. [H/T @timhanso] (LINK)

After nearly two centuries, a mill closes and a storied brand ceases to be ‘Made in the U.S.A.’

How Much Trust Can Facebook Afford to Lose? - by Evan Osnos (LINK)

How Worried Should Americans Be About Facebook and Cyber Warfare? (podcast) (LINK)

Evan Osnos joins Dorothy Wickenden to discuss investigations into what Facebook knew about Russia’s interference in the 2016 election, and into the company’s misuse of users’ data.

A16z videos on What’s Next for Marketplace Startups, Extending Human Lifespan, Programming Medicine, and Nature as Technology.

Graham Allison: My North Korea Prediction for 2019 (LINK)

The Itsy-Bitsy, Teenie-Weenie, Very Litigious Kiini Bikini (LINK)

A Courting Peacock Can Shake Its Partner’s Head From Afar - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Apollo 8’s Earthrise: The Shot Seen Round the World (LINK)

Links

Berkshire’s Jain Tells Gen Re Staff to Fix ‘Problem’ With Costs [H/T Will] (LINK)

Mohnish Pabrai's Hedge Fund Interview Guide (LINK)

Paul Tudor Jones & the Nature of the Beast - by Ben Carlson (LINK)

NPR: TED Radio Hour - Can Slowing Down Help You Be More Creative? (LINK) [This podcast episode goes well with  Episode 07 (“Hallelujah”) of Malcolm Gladwell's podcast.]

Related book: Originals: How Non-Conformists Move the World

I’m a very slow thinker - by Derek Sivers (LINK)

Colombia and FARC Announce Deal to End the Americas’ Longest War (LINK)

Latticework of Mental Models: The Halo Effect (LINK)

Related book: The Halo Effect (the audiobook is also just $5.95, HERE)

Audible's latest sale (ends August 31st) has a bunch of former Daily Deals on sale once again. And there are some fantastic titles on the list. Here are some that stood out to me (if you're not an Audible member, you can sign up for a free trial HERE, which includes 2 free audiobooks as well):

Man's Search for Meaning ($2.95)

Surely You're Joking, Mr. Feynman! ($3.95)

The Little Book of Talent: 52 Tips for Improving Your Skills ($0.99)

How to Fail at Almost Everything and Still Win Big ($2.95)

The Inexplicable Universe: Unsolved Mysteries ($1.95)

The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives ($3.95)

The Five Elements of Effective Thinking ($1.95)

A Mind for Numbers: How to Excel at Math and Science (Even If You Flunked Algebra) ($2.95)

The Clockwork Universe: Isaac Newton, The Royal Society, and the Birth of the Modern World ($3.95)

The Hunt for Vulcan: …And How Albert Einstein Destroyed a Planet, Discovered Relativity, and Deciphered the Universe ($1.95)

Stuff Matters: Exploring the Marvelous Materials That Shape Our Man-Made World ($2.95)

Earth Moved: On the Remarkable Achievements of Earthworms ($2.95)

John Quincy Adams ($3.95)

The Prince - By Niccolo Machiavelli ($1.95)

Candide - by Voltaire ($1.95)

Peace Is Every Step: The Path of Mindfulness in Everyday Life - By Thich Nhat Hanh ($1.95)

Links

Grant's 2015 Christmas Vacation Issue (LINK)

2011 Video: Warren Buffett and Ajit Jain Answer Questions From MBA Class [H/T GuruFocus and Linc] (LINK)

The Sagan Series [H/T @cullenroche] (LINK)

A Conversation With Michael Lewis About How The Big Short Became a Movie (LINK)

'Moneyball' meets medicine: DePodesta joins Topol at Scripps [H/T Linc] (LINK)

Related book: The Patient Will See You Now: The Future of Medicine is in Your Hands

Latticework of Mental Models: Externalities (LINK)

Mark Spitznagel: Revisiting the ticking time bomb [H/T James] (LINK)

How to Decrease E-mail Overwhelm in 2016–The First Step (LINK)

Links

The Audible Daily Deal looks like an interesting course from The Great Courses (for $3.95): How Ideas Spread (The lecturer also wrote a book on these ideas: Contagious: Why Things Catch On)

Follow Buffett Reinsurance Guru’s Sage Advice [H/T Linc] (LINK)

When Ajit Jain can’t see value in reinsurance, investors across the industry should worry. 

The man who runs Warren Buffett’s reinsurance business told The Wall Street Journal this summer that Berkshire Hathaway would be putting more money into normal commercial and retail insurance instead. 

Mr. Jain’s views are almost as influential among reinsurers as Mr. Buffett’s are among investors. There is of course a chance his words could be mischievous: an attempt to influence rivals’ strategies. 

But there are profound industry changes afoot that look set to suppress reinsurance rates and returns for years to come.

Teaching Empathy (LINK)

92Y Podcast: 2011 Conversation between Oliver Sacks and Jonathan Weiner (LINK) [There's also a great 2007 conversation with Sacks about his book Musicophilia: Tales of Music and the Brain, AUDIO LINK.]

New images of Pluto (LINK)

Pictures: A World Without Energy [H/T @BillGates] (LINK)

Jain feeds Buffett’s hunger

I'm a bit late getting to this, but thanks to those who passed the link along.

The first signs of a new Ajit Jain came at the January 2012 renewals, when the potential heir to Buffett played big on Australasian cat and international retro.

Jain took a large share of the IAG property cat treaty that had handed painful losses on to the pre-existing markets. It looked like classic Jain: hundreds of millions of dollars of capacity thrown at the feet of a cedant that was struggling for capacity. In hindsight, it became clear that it was the first in a series of mammoth cat and multi-line deals with cedants from Asia Pacific.

IAG was followed by a hefty (and uncapped) retro quota share for Asia Capital Re; next came some aggressive Japanese quake pro rata deals and a gargantuan quota share with Toa Re.

After Berkshire Hathaway made its presence felt during the Indian renewals, the New Zealand Earthquake Commission (EQC) was next as the reinsurer came from a standing start to write a NZ$500mn line to help the programme expand substantially.

By far the most prominent deal in Jain's Asia Pacific push was made with loss-hit Australasian cedant Suncorp. Berkshire ramped its line on the main programme up to around $800mn, hoovered up the entire New Zealand buy-down protection and wrote a $300mn-premium quota share of Suncorp's Queensland homeowners' book. It is believed all of this was written for a three-year period.

And this agreement overshadowed a multi-year deal with Berkshire that took the whole of New Zealand insurer AMI's NZ$1.4bn cat programme out of the market, denying resentful loss-paying markets the chance to earn their payback.

At the beginning of 2013 Berkshire filled in the final piece of its Australasian strategy by striking a deal with QBE to write 15 percent shares of a range of its programmes, including the company's $1.3bn global cat treaty and its global aggregate cover.

All in all, Berkshire Hathaway is thought to have swollen its Asia Pacific writing by between $1.5bn and $2bn in this period of frenzied activity, with most of this coming through multi-line uncapped quota shares or cat excess-of-loss business.