Links

"Speculators may do no harm as bubbles on a steady stream of enterprise. But the position is serious when enterprise becomes the bubble on a whirlpool of speculation. When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. The measure of success attained by Wall Street, regarded as an institution of which the proper social purpose is to direct new investment into the most profitable channels in terms of future yield, cannot be claimed as one of the outstanding triumphs of laissez-faire capitalism which is not surprising, if I am right in thinking that the best brains of Wall Street have been in fact directed towards a different object." --John Maynard Keynes

Warren Buffett’s Optimistic? Pessimistic? No, Realistic - by Andrew Ross Sorkin (LINK)

Sam Zell on Market Valuations, Real Estate, Post-Virus Economy (video) [H/T Linc] (LINK)

Spring 2020 issue of Graham & Doddsville (LINK)

Content, Cars, and Comparisons in the "Streaming Wars" - by Matthew Ball (LINK)

Invest Like the Best Podcast: Ali Hamed – An Update on Private Credit (LINK)

Against the Rules with Michael Lewis (podcast): The Invisible Coach (LINK)

The Case for Deeply Negative Interest Rates - by Kenneth Rogoff (LINK)

MacroVoices Podcast #217 Dr. Lacy Hunt: The Road Through Deflation Toward Eventual Hyperinflation (LINK)

Hope, Through History Podcast: Episode 3 | The Polio Epidemic (LINK)

The Daily Stoic Podcast: Ask Daily Stoic: Ryan and Robert Greene Talk Plagues, Politics, and Polarization (LINK)

All You Need Are a Few Small Wins Every Day - by Ryan Holiday (LINK)

Our message to the class of 2020 - by Bill and Melinda Gates (LINK)

It is time to take seriously the link between Vitamin D deficiency and more serious Covid-19 symptoms - by Matt Ridley (LINK)

Links

"Our model is a seamless web of trust that’s deserved on both sides. That’s what we’re aiming for. The Hollywood model, where everyone has a contract, and no trust is deserved on either side, is not what we want at all." --Charlie Munger (2009)

Howard Marks on Bloomberg TV discussing his latest memo (video) (LINK)

Sam Zell on CNBC (video) (LINK)

The End of Pay-TV - by Matthew Ball (LINK)

How To Manage Change (LINK)

Value Investing with Legends Podcast: David Samra - Leveraging Fundamentals to Remain Relevant (LINK)

One Doctor’s Life on the Coronavirus Front Lines. ‘If We Fail, What Happens to You All?’ ($) (LINK)

Coronavirus: The Black Swan of 2020 - Sequoia Capital Publication (LINK)

Scott Adams and Naval Ravikant talk about Coronavirus (video) (LINK)

The Tim Ferriss Show (podcast): #413: Tyler Cowen on Rationality, COVID-19, Talismans, and Life on the Margins (LINK)

Freeman Dyson’s Letters Offer Another Glimpse of Genius (LINK)

Sam Zell on risk, and what he learned from Jay Pritzker

From his podcast chat with Peter Attia (my emphasis):

You had to be realistic. You had to be able to look at it and say, "What could go wrong?" If I learned anything from [Jay Pritzker], I learned that if everything went too well, you could survive. The only time you couldn't survive is if it didn't go so well.  

So focusing on the upside was interesting, but not productive. Focusing on the downside was what risk was all about. 

And to the extent that you could quantify the downside—to the extent that you understood what the risk was you were taking—your chances of survival were much better.... I think a lot of people get in a lot of trouble because they do a transaction and they don't understand what the risk they're assuming is when they do the transaction. And what he taught me more than anyone else was [to] look at the deal and figure out: Where is the vulnerability? Where is the assumption you've made that has to be right in order for the deal to work?