Saturday, April 18, 2015

Links

Jason Zweig: Are You Hot or Not? For Investors, It’s Hard to Tell (LINK)

David Brooks: The Moral Bucket List (LINK)
Related book: The Road to Character
Related link (video): David Brooks on Charlie Rose
Meb Faber:  If US Stocks Are Expensive, How Do I Protect Myself? (LINK)

Podcast: Tony Robbins on Investing, RIAs, and Being a Great Business Owner [H/T Abnormal Returns] (LINK)
Related book:  MONEY Master the Game
Gorilla at Omaha zoo cracks window (video) (LINK)
Related previous post: Other Video Clips from Omaha

Friday, April 17, 2015

Links

Presentations from The Ben Graham Centre’s 2015 Value Investing Conference [H/T ValueWalk] (LINK)

Nestle chairman: Heinz owners have 'pulverized' the food industry [H/T Matt] (LINK)

The Apollo Asia Fund's Q1 Report (LINK)

Horizon Kinetics: 1st Quarter 2015 Commentary (LINK)

Five Good Questions for Michael Yogg about his book, Passion for Reality (LINK)

Hank Paulson (discussing his new book Dealing with China: An Insider Unmasks the New Economic Superpower), and Steve Wynn on Charlie Rose (video) (LINK)

Hoisington Quarterly Review and Outlook, First Quarter 2015 (LINK)

This CEO may have the sweetest job around [H/T Phil] (LINK)

Y Combinator President Sam Altman is Dreaming Big (LINK)

Square’s Jack Dorsey Puts It All Together (LINK)

Mark Zuckerberg chooses Michael Chwe’s Rational Ritual for his book club (LINK)

Book of the day [H/T Phil]: The One Hour China Consumer Book

Thursday, April 16, 2015

Links

David Brooks on Charlie Rose discussing his new book, The Road to Character (video) (LINK)

Sanjay Bakshi: WHEN YOU BUY A BANK… (LINK)

The Student-Loan Problem Is Even Worse Than Official Figures Indicate [H/T Matt] (LINK)

It’s Even Hard to Buy a House When Your Father Runs Wells Fargo [H/T Will] (LINK)

Lountzis Asset Management: Thoughts on Oil and Gas Investing (LINK)

David Einhorn Talks ZIRP, AerCap, John Bush, And More At Grant’s Conference (LINK)

Book of the day: A World Undone: The Story of the Great War, 1914 to 1918 [See also: The Hardcore History podcast series on WWI.]

Wednesday, April 15, 2015

Links

Ben Graham on How to Handle Your Money (LINK)

Brian Grazer on Charlie Rose discussing his book, A Curious Mind: The Secret to a Bigger Life (video) (LINK)

Brent Schlender and Rick Tetzeli on Charlie Rose discussing their book, Becoming Steve Jobs (video) (LINK)

Andy Hertzfeld: Would Steve Jobs Have Liked the New Biography? I Don’t Think So (LINK)

Brainstorming with Marc Andreessen [H/T Abnormal Returns] (LINK)

Grant’s Conference: Jim Grant On The S&P 500 Great Debate (LINK)

Andrew Smithers: The importance of labour participation rates (LINK)

John Kay: We can reform the economics curriculum without creating new disciplines (LINK)

Richard Duncan: QE is Debt Cancellation (video) (LINK)

Religion without God, an excerpt from Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind (LINK)

Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Links

Phil DeMuth's Daily Journal Annual Meeting Notes, Part 2 (LINK)

Tips from Buffett, Bloomberg and Marina Abramović [H/T @GSpier] (LINK)
Related book: Getting There: A Book of Mentors
How Spanx Got Me an Interview With Warren Buffett (It's Not What You Think) [H/T @GSpier] (LINK)
Related book (same as above): Getting There: A Book of Mentors
David Einhorn’s Long And Short Ideas From Grant’s Conference (LINK)

The Brooklyn Investor on JPM's 2014 Annual Report (LINK)

Ackman Says Student Loans Are the Biggest Risk in the Credit Market [H/T Will] (LINK)

Biglari Holdings 2014 Annual General Meeting Notes [H/T Matt] (LINK)

Car Retailing Grabs Merger Spotlight (LINK)

A conversation with Yanis Varoufakis and Joseph Stiglitz (video) [H/T @ProfSteveKeen] (LINK)

An Indie-Documentary on The Life & Times of Christopher Hitchens (LINK)
Related book: Hitch-22

Monday, April 13, 2015

Links

A large excerpt of the Boyles interview with Value Investor Confidential, minus the 3 stock ideas we discussed, on ValueWalk (LINK)

Sanjay Bakshi: Reply to a Mail from a Friend on Valuation (LINK)

A Dozen Things learned from Stanley Druckenmiller About Investing (LINK)

A recent speech from Stanley Druckenmiller (LINK)

Aswath Damodaran: The Small Cap Premium: Where is the beef? (LINK)

Philosophical Economics: Capital Recycling at Elevated Valuations: A Historical Simulation (LINK)

Perspectives on Stock Market Valuation (LINK)

GMO White Paper: The Case for Not Currency Hedging Foreign Equity Investments: A U.S. Investor's Perspective (LINK)

Farnam Street: Seymour Schulich on Deals, Business, Decisions and Life (LINK)
Related book: Get Smarter
60 Minutes:  The Attack on Sony (LINK)
North Korea's cyberattack on Sony Pictures exposed a new reality: you don't have to be a superpower to inflict damage on U.S. corporations
Acidic oceans linked to greatest extinction ever (LINK)

Volcanoes and climate: After Tambora [H/T Will] (LINK)
Two hundred years ago the most powerful eruption in modern history made itself felt around the world. It could happen again at almost any time
Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Valuation and Speculation: The Iron Laws (LINK)
There are two central considerations in investing that, when used in combination, have been the source of virtually every major success I’ve had in 30 years as a professional investor, and when inadvertently missed or underappreciated, have been the source of virtually every significant disappointment.
The first is what I’ve often called the Iron Law of Valuation: every security is a claim on an expected stream of future cash flows, and given that expected stream of future cash flows, the current price of the security moves opposite to the expected future return on that security. The higher the price an investor pays for that expected stream of cash flows today, the lower the return that an investor should expect over the long-term. Particularly at market peaks, investors seem to believe that regardless of the extent of the preceding advance, future returns remain entirely unaffected. The repeated eagerness of investors to extrapolate returns and ignore the Iron Law of Valuation has been the source of the deepest losses in history (see Margins, Multiples, and the Iron Law of Valuation).
The second consideration, however, is equally important over any horizon other than the long-term. It deserves its own name, and I’ll call it the Iron Law of Speculation: The near-term outcome of speculative, overvalued markets is conditional on investor preferences toward risk-seeking or risk-aversion, and those preferences can be largely inferred from observable market internals and credit spreads. In the long-term, investment outcomes are chiefly defined by valuations, but over the shorter-term, the difference between an overvalued market that becomes more overvalued, and an overvalued market that crashes, has little to do with the level of valuation and everything to do with investor risk preferences (see A Better Lesson than “This Time is Different”).
Book of the day (a Bill Gates recommendation): Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies (Also available on Audible, which is currently having its Spring Cleaning Sale and has almost everything half-off.)

Sunday, April 12, 2015

A Conversation between Joel Greenblatt and Howard Marks

A great quote from Greenblatt during the conversation, which reminded me of the Kelly Criterion: "My largest positions are not the ones I think I'm going to make the most money from. My largest positions are the ones I don't think I'm going to lose money in."


Link to video

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Related books:

The Little Book That Still Beats the Market

You Can Be a Stock Market Genius

The Most Important Thing Illuminated

Friday, April 10, 2015

Links

Baidu CEO Robin Li interviews Bill Gates and Elon Musk at the Boao Forum, March 29 2015 (video...but not the best audio) (LINK)

Morgan Housel interviews Michael Lewis [H/T Abnormal Returns] (LINK)

'Great Debate': Realist Bogle vs optimist Grant [H/T Will] (LINK)

Notes from the book Strangers to Ourselves (LINK)

a16z Podcast: Cyber Security’s Painful Prominence and Why There is No Turning Back [H/T Abnormal Returns] (LINK)

Here's What It Looks Like When A Startup Wins Big at Y Combinator [H/T @maxolson] (LINK)

Book of the day: Four Fish: The Future of the Last Wild Food

Thursday, April 9, 2015

Links

Jamie Dimon's Letter to Shareholders (LINK)

PBS: America Revealed episodes (LINK)

TED Talk - Dan Ariely: How equal do we want the world to be? You'd be surprised (LINK)

Chinese Stock Buying Frenzy Sweeps Into Hong Kong (LINK)

NYC Pension Earns $40 Million Over 10 Years, Pays Fund Managers $2 Billion (LINK)

Howard Marks on CNBC: No compelling bargains right now (video) [H/T ValueWalk] (LINK)

Sanjay Bakshi Session on Value Investing at IIM Ranchi (video - not the greatest audio) (LINK) [The slides are available HERE.]

OTC Adventures blog: Lessons Learned (LINK)

Claudio Borio's INET Conference Presentation (LINK)

Bobcat snatches shark out of the ocean (video) (LINK)

Book of the day: Dropping Ashes on the Buddha


Excerpt from Charlie Munger's March 11, 2008 conversation at Caltech

THIS link to the Munger video starts at the 1:15:40 mark, and is a question David Winters asked to Munger about what was going on in the financial markets at the time. I think his answer, which ends around the 1:21:18 mark, is worth reviewing.

..........

On a related note, attendees were given a "2-hour show on science" DVD (see 1:45:35 of the video) as they left the talk. Does anyone know what that show/DVD was? Thanks.