Monday, September 26, 2016

Links

The Chessboard Fallacy (LINK)

Latticework of Mental Models: Scarcity Bias (LINK) [Also from Vishal: Mental Models, Investing, and You (Special E-Book)]

The Fight to Keep It Simple (LINK)
Related previous post: If it's not simple, then I'm not interested...
Comments on investment philosophy - part one -- by John Hempton (LINK)

The ~30-minute CNBC video interview with Bruce Berkowitz [H/T Will] (LINK)

Why Getting Rich Quick Doesn’t Sound Crazy - by Jason Zweig (LINK)

Self-made billionaire Jim Koch says this book taught him more than Harvard did [H/T Matt] (LINK)
Related book: How to Master the Art of Selling
Peter Diamandis’s 9 Rules For Building A Successful Business (LINK)

Snapchat Releases First Hardware Product, Spectacles (LINK)

What’s the Best Safe Haven for Investors? - by Mark Spitznagel [H/T Jim] (LINK)

Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Structural Growth and Dope Dealers on Speed-Dial (LINK)
Presently, the Shiller CAPE stands at close to 26, which is already well above historical norms, and above anything seen prior to the sequential bubbles (and collapses) of recent cycles. But the CAPE only captures part of the risk, because that 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings actually embeds the highest profit margin in history. By accepting the CAPE at face-value, investors are quietly assuming that profit margins will remain at this level permanently. On the basis of normalized profit margins, which systematically produce a more reliable valuation measure across history, the CAPE would presently be at 36.
Richard Duncan posted the final chapter of his book The Dollar Crisis, written in December 2004, which was interesting to read nearly 12 years later (LINK) [And if you want to subscribe to Richard Duncan's Macro Watch newsletter, you should also still be able to use the coupon code 'valueinvestingworld' to get 50% off.]

Exponent podcast: Episode 089 — Move On from the 80s (LINK)

The Cato chronicles, part I: young Cato (LINK)
Related book: Rome's Last Citizen: The Life and Legacy of Cato, Mortal Enemy of Caesar
How To Overcome Addiction And Make Lasting Changes In Your Life [H/T @AdamMGrant] (LINK)

Friday, September 23, 2016

Structural end-market growth...

From Quality Investing: Owning the best companies for the long term:
Whereas cyclical growth refers to episodic expansions, structural growth refers to more permanent expansions supported by persistent trends deemed likely to endure. The inherent prognosis, however, warrants skepticism, as the observed pattern is often in fact cyclical and merely temporary. Many emerging market trends previously considered structural seem, in hindsight, to have been more cyclical in nature. 
Despite this, there are a number of long-term trends that are more likely to prove sustainable than others, ranging from disease prevention to urbanization and aging demographics in developed markets. But it is not safe to assume, for instance, that all people on earth want to own a certain number of cars or spend a stated portion of income on beer. 
There are many examples of erroneous assumptions along these lines. A notable one occurred in the US golfing industry. Growth was projected to increase in tandem with a rising population, favorable demographics, and increasing wealth. The projection was wrong. Between 2006 and 2013, the number of golfers in the US fell by 18% despite 6% growth in the US population. A broader example is occurring in China, where once soaring consumer appetites for goods like cognac and pastimes like gambling have abruptly reversed. Only time will tell if this reversal is temporary or permanent.

Thursday, September 22, 2016

Links

Berkshire Hathaway Symposium: Panel 2 - Shareholders (5 videos) (LINK)

Richard S. Tedlow Leads the IBM 360 HBS Case (2008 video) [H/T @PlanMaestro] (LINK)
Professor Richard S. Tedlow of Harvard Business School and a Trustee of the Computer History Museum discusses the story of IBM, the leading technology company in the 1960s, taking a huge risk in developing a new family of computers -- a financial investment approximately three times its 1960 annual sales. In 1966, Fortune magazine called this "perhaps the riskiest business judgment" of the era. 
Oracle's Cloudy Future - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

Seth Godin on Creativity, Writer’s Block, and What It Sounds Like When You Change Your Mind (podcast) (LINK)

Edge #479: Infrastructure As Dialogue - A Conversation With Monica Smith (LINK)

What I like about the three great Roman Stoics - by Massimo Pigliucci (LINK)

Book of the day: How to Make a Spaceship: A Band of Renegades, an Epic Race, and the Birth of Private Spaceflight

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Links

The video of Senator Elizabeth Warren questioning Wells Fargo CEO John Stumpf (LINK)

Whipping Wells Fargo (LINK)

How Ulta and Mary Dillon Are Winning the Beauty Battle [video plays when article opens] [H/T @BluegrassCap] (LINK)

GuruFocus: 18 Questions With Dale Wettlaufer of Charlotte Lane Capital Management (LINK)

You don't know anything! - by Nate Tobik (LINK)

Silicon Valley’s Secrets Are Hiding in Marc Andreessen’s Library [H/T Barry Ritholtz] (LINK)

World’s hardiest animal has evolved radiation shield for its DNA (LINK)

Human remains found in hobbit cave (LINK)
Ancient teeth make Homo sapiens the lead suspect in the extinction of Homo floresiensis.

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Links

Buffett’s Investing Deputy Todd Combs Named to JPMorgan’s Board (LINK)

How to invest like… Warren Buffett's hero Philip Carret [H/T @chriswmayer] (LINK)
Related book: A Money Mind at 90 
Related article: Buy ‘em Cheap and Hold ‘em
What Are You Doing About It? Reaching Deep Fluency with Mental Models (LINK)

The Difference Between Rationality and Intelligence [H/T @mjmauboussin] (LINK)

The Dangers of ‘Self-Driving’ Car Hype (LINK)

The Coming Anti-National Revolution World - by Robert Shiller (LINK)

It’s time to junk the flawed economic models that make the world a dangerous place [H/T @jasonzweigwsj] (LINK)

Invest Like the Best podcast: Michael Mauboussin – Active Asset Management (LINK)

This looks like an interesting new podcast from NPR [H/T @Kevin_Holloway]: How I Built This
How I Built This is a podcast about innovators, entrepreneurs, and idealists, and the stories behind the movements they built. Each episode is a narrative journey marked by triumphs, failures, serendipity and insight — told by the founders of some of the world's best known companies and brands. 
There's a new edition (50% longer) of Nassim Taleb's The Bed of Procrustes: Philosophical and Practical Aphorisms

Book of the day (released next month):  The Daily Stoic: 366 Meditations on Wisdom, Perseverance, and the Art of Living

Monday, September 19, 2016

Links

Tomorrow (Tuesday, Sept. 20) Yahoo Finance will live stream a conversation with Warren Buffett at the 2016 Concordia Summit [H/T Will] (LINK)

Farnam Street on the Bias from Disliking/Hating (LINK)

The Greatest Bubble of All-Time? - by Ben Carlson (LINK)

The Economist: A special report on the world's most powerful companies (LINK)

Ray Dalio And Timothy Geithner: Delivering Alpha Unfiltered (~30 minute video) [H/T ValueWalk] (LINK)

Delivering Alpha Conference 2016 Speaker Transcripts (LINK)

The Waiter's Pad: Notes on Judith Elsea's appearance on the Origins podcast from Notation Capital (LINK)

A conversation with Aston Motes, Dropbox’s first employee (LINK)

The Third Transportation Revolution: Lyft’s Vision for the Next Ten Years and Beyond (LINK)

Some more good titles in the current $4.95 Audible sale (if you're not an Audible member yet, you can sign up HERE):

Debt - Updated and Expanded: The First 5,000 Years - By David Graeber (Seth Godin has specifically recommended consuming this book in audio format.)

What I Learned Losing a Million Dollars - By Jim Paul,  Brendan Moynihan

Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future - By Martin Ford

In the Plex: How Google Thinks, Works, and Shapes Our Lives - By Steven Levy

Super Mario: How Nintendo Conquered America - By Jeff Ryan

The Selfish Gene - By Richard Dawkins

Civilization: The West and the Rest - By Niall Ferguson

The Righteous Mind: Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and Religion - By Jonathan Haidt

The Medieval World (The Great Courses)

The War of Art: Winning the Inner Creative Battle - By Steven Pressfield

The Life-Changing Magic of Tidying Up: The Japanese Art of Decluttering and Organizing - By Marie Kondo

We Learn Nothing: Essays - By Tim Kreider

The Wealth of Nations - By Adam Smith

Meditations - By Marcus Aurelius

The Untethered Soul: The Journey Beyond Yourself - By Michael A. Singer

Lawrence in Arabia: War, Deceit, Imperial Folly, and the Making of the Modern Middle East - By Scott Anderson

The Passage of Power: The Years of Lyndon Johnson - By Robert A. Caro

The Pilgrim's Progress: From This World to That Which Is to Come - By John Bunyan

Once an Eagle: A Novel - By Anton Myrer

The Hobbit – by J.R.R. Tolkien

The Complete Sherlock Holmes: The Heirloom Collection - By Arthur Conan Doyle

Sunday, September 18, 2016

Links

25iq: A Dozen Ways to Apply the Lessons Taught in the Book “The Most Important Thing” (LINK)
Related book: The Most Important Thing
How Wells Fargo’s High-Pressure Sales Culture Spiraled Out of Control (LINK)

Heavy-Equipment Glut Weighs on Machine Makers (LINK)

Chris Mayer discusses Edgar Wachenheim's book Common Stocks and Common Sense (LINK)

Author Q&A: NYU’s Baruch Lev on the End of Accounting (LINK)
Related book: The End of Accounting and the Path Forward for Investors and Managers
a16z Podcast: Welcome to the New Era of Commerce (LINK)

The Intellectual Yet Idiot - by Nassim Taleb (LINK)

The World of Today [H/T @pmarca] (LINK)
Related book: The World of Yesterday

Friday, September 16, 2016

Links

Latticework of Mental Models: Hawthorne Effect (LINK)

Crowds and Technology (LINK)
Related books: 1) The True Believer; 2) Crowds and Power
Mislead by the PE ratio (LINK)

Exponent Podcast Episode 088 — The Dark Side of the Facebook (LINK)

Bill Gurley on the Recode Decode podcast [H/T The Waiter's Pad] (LINK)

Sex Lives of Fish (LINK)
Related book: What a Fish Knows: The Inner Lives of Our Underwater Cousins

Thursday, September 15, 2016

Links

Farnam Street: Gradually Getting Closer to the Truth (LINK) [I've always loved this Munger and Buffett exchange, as it clearly makes the point about 1-foot hurdles and things needing to scream out at you in order to be worth doing.... “Warren often talks about these discounted cash flows, but I’ve never seen him do one. If it isn’t perfectly obvious that it’s going to work out well if you do the calculation, then he tends to go on to the next idea.” Buffett retorted: “It’s true. If (the value of a company) doesn’t just scream out at you, it’s too close.”]

Bill Belichick (invert, always invert) (LINK)

Dead as a Severed Horse’s Head - by David Merkel (LINK)
Tonight, I am talking about a different sort of scam that sucked in a different class of people.  This scam was a corporation where the management took a firm into bankruptcy that could easily pay its debts, at least in the short-run.  The management likely conspired with the bondholders against its shareholders, seemingly in an effort to gain a greater reward from the bondholders who would own the firm post-bankruptcy than they could from operating the firm outside of bankruptcy.  The name of this firm is Horsehead Holdings [ZINCQ].
Episode 1 of Patrick O’Shaughnessy's new podcast: Jeff Gramm – Activist Investing (LINK)
Related book: Dear Chairman: Boardroom Battles and the Rise of Shareholder Activism
George Magnus recommends the best books on Emerging Markets [H/T @chriswmayer] (LINK)

Redefining limits: how new-market innovations deliver hope in healthcare (LINK)

Paul Graham 2004 essay about Internet/technology trends (he got 9 out of 10 correct) (LINK)

Wonderland Podcast with Steven Johnson [currently 2 episodes] (LINK)
Related book (out later this year): Wonderland: How Play Made the Modern World

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Links

Noise: How to Overcome the High, Hidden Cost of Inconsistent Decision Making (LINK)

This column will change your life: interestingness v truth - by Oliver Burkeman (from 2014) (LINK)

James Dimon's interview at The Economic Club of Washington, D.C. (video) (LINK)

Oaktree's Power Opportunities & Infrastructure Investing Platform Video (LINK)

Author Interview: Sean Iddings and Ian Cassel - "Intelligent Fanatics" (LINK)
Related book (this is the paperback, which is now available): Intelligent Fanatics Project: How Great Leaders Build Sustainable Businesses
Delivering Alpha Conference Notes 2016 (LINK)

a16z Podcast: Apple and the Case of Invisible But Audible Innovation (LINK)

Tony Seba on the driverless car disruption - 2016 DSA State of Downtown (video) [H/T Matt] (LINK)

On Deep Breaks - by Cal Newport (LINK)
Related book: Deep Work: Rules for Focused Success in a Distracted World
Book of the day: The Art of Taking Action: Lessons from Japanese Psychology