Thursday, February 4, 2016


Bill Gates interview on BBC's Desert Island Discs (LINK) [Also available via podcast.]

The Reith Lectures - Professor Stephen Hawking (LINK) [Also available via podcast.]

GMO's Q4 2015 Letter (LINK)
The 4Q15 Letter features Ben Inker answering the question as to whether high yield debt today is cheap in "Giving a Little Credit to High Yield" and is followed by a continuation of Jeremy Grantham's piece from last quarter. Part I of Jeremy’s section, “The Real American Exceptionalism” discusses the benefits of the entrepreneurial spirit that characterizes the U.S. as well as its advantage in the world given its abundant resources. Part II offers a brief review of 2015 and a look ahead to 2016, followed by an update to his views on whether the U.S. equity market is nearing bubble territory and a discussion as to how the free fall in the price of oil is playing out in the markets.
Charlie Munger on Cost of Capital [H/T @Sanjay__Bakshi] (LINK)

The Fairholme Fund's 2015 Annual Report (LINK)

Horizon Kinetics' latest in their index series: The Robo-Adviser, Part I: What Does Rebalancing Mean to You? (LINK)

John Hempton: Mr Ackman, I forgive you. Mike fooled almost everybody... (LINK)

Interview with Russell Napier author of Anatomy Of The Bear (LINK)

James Surowiecki on oil (LINK)

Kyle Bass: China banks months away from ‘danger territory’ (LINK) [The video is HERE.]
The premise of Bass' bet goes like this: China's banking system has grown to $34.5 trillion, equal to more than three times the country's GDP. The country is due for a loss cycle as cracks begin to show in its economy. 
When that happens, central bankers will have to dip into China's $3.3 trillion of foreign exchange reserves to recapitalize the banks, causing a significant depreciation in the value of the yuan, according to Bass. 
On Wednesday, he said China's export-import industry requires China to maintain $2.7 trillion in foreign exchange reserves to continue operating smoothly, citing an International Monetary Fund assessment. 
"They'll hit that number in the next five months," he said in an interview on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street." "Those that think they can burn it to zero and they have many years ahead of them, they really only have a few months ahead of them before they get into a real danger territory." 
...Bass confirmed Wednesday he is devoting much of his fund to his bet the yuan will depreciate. He characterized shorts against the currency, including his, as totaling "billions." 
The market will ultimately come to view a 10 percent yuan devaluation as "a pipe dream," he said. "When you look at the size of the imbalance and the size of their economy, it's going to go 30 or 40 percent in the end, and it's going to be the reset for the world."
Five Good Questions for Robert Murphy about his book The Primal Prescription (video) (LINK)

TED Talk - Judson Brewer: A simple way to break a bad habit (LINK)