Links

"Once you talk about something that’s an asset appreciation investment, ignoring the underlying economics of what you’re lending on, you’re really talking about the bigger-fool game. You’re saying...this is a silly price but there’ll be a bigger fool that comes along. And that actually can be a profitable game for a while. But it’s nothing that bankers should engage in." --Warren Buffett (2005)

"It’s obvious that the easy lending on houses causes more houses to be built and causes housing prices to be higher, probably, in the new field. Eventually, of course, if you construct enough of new anything, you can have a countervailing effect. If you build way too many houses, you’d eventually cause a price decline." --Charlie Munger (2005)

Jeff Bezos' 2018 Letter to Shareholders (LINK)

Cullen Roche on Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis (LINK)

A review of Merger Masters: Tales of Arbitrage (LINK)

Previously unknown human species found in Asia raises questions about early hominin dispersals from Africa (LINK)

Links

"The idea that you risk what you need and is important to you for something that you don’t need and it is unimportant, is just craziness." --Warren Buffett (2005)

You Have To Live It To Believe It - by Morgan Housel (LINK)

Congress Is About to Ban the Government From Offering Free Online Tax Filing. Thank TurboTax. (LINK)

Making Uncommon Knowledge Common (LINK)

Preface: This is part of a longer private memo analyzing Zillow and its recent shift towards Opendoor’s model. May publish rest of memo at some later point. But wanted to share first part, on Rich Barton and Zillow’s initial rise.

Edge #534: Is Superintelligence Impossible? - David Chalmers and Daniel C. Dennett (Video and Transcript, Podcast)

Bill Gates discusses Melinda Gates' new book, The Moment of Lift (LINK)

Peering down the cliff of infinity: The first image of the event horizon of a black hole - by Phil Plait (LINK)

For the first time in human history, astronomers have combined the power of telescopes from across our planet to create an image that shows the event horizon of a black hole.

Links

Released today: The Great Mental Models: General Thinking Concepts

A Regulatory Framework for the Internet - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

Frackers, Chasing Fast Oil Output, Are on a Treadmill ($) (LINK)

Why is a good management so important? A talk with Robert Vinall on his approach (video) (LINK)

Against the Rules with Michael Lewis (podcast): The Seven Minute Rule (LINK)

The Tim Ferriss Show: Eric Schmidt — Lessons from a Trillion-Dollar Coach (LINK)

WorkLife with Adam Grant (podcast): How to Remember Anything (LINK)

Venture Stories Podcast: Tyler Cowen On His New Book: “Big Business: A Love Letter To An American Anti-Hero” (LINK)

Invest Like the Best Podcast: Geoffrey Batt – The Nature of Transformational Returns (LINK)

The Investing City Podcast: Portfolio Manager, Gautam Baid: Joyful Compounding (LINK)

Related book: The Joys of Compounding

Links

"In economics, it’s far easier to tell what will happen than when it will happen. I mean, you can see bubbles develop and things, but you do not know how big the bubble will get.... I’ve just never been successful at [predicting timing] nor do I try to do it." --Warren Buffett (2005)

Ray Dalio on "60 Minutes" (video) (LINK)

Related paper: "Why & How Capitalism Needs to be Reformed"

The Investors Podcast: Sanjay Bakshi (LINK)

a16z Podcast: Fintech for Startups and Incumbents (LINK)

Exponential Wisdom Podcast: Flipping the Insurance Industry (LINK)

The Peter Attia Drive (podcast): Matthew Walker, Ph.D., on sleep – Part II of III (LINK)

You Could Have Today. Instead You Choose Tomorrow. - by Ryan Holiday (LINK)

The Disturbing Walrus Scene in Our Planet - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Book of the day [H/T @paulg]: Medieval Technology and Social Change

Links

"It’s hard to know just which companies can pass through the increases in costs that come from higher commodity prices. And it’s also important to know." --Charlie Munger (2005)

"We like buying businesses where we feel that there’s some untapped pricing power.... One of the questions we asked ourselves [when we bought See's], and we thought the answer was obvious, was: if we raised the price 10 cents a pound, would sales fall off a cliff? And of course, the answer, in our view at least, was that no, there was some untapped pricing power in the product. And it’s not a great business when you have to have a prayer session before you raise your prices a penny. You are in a tough business then. And I would say you can almost measure the strength of a business over time by the agony they go through in determining whether a price increase can be sustained." --Warren Buffett (2005)

Masters in Business Podcast: Michael Lewis Discusses the Culture of Finance (LINK)

Against the Rules with Michael Lewis (podcast): Ref, You Suck! (LINK)

Sam Walton Stole All His Best Ideas From This Guy [Sol Price] (video) (LINK)

Related books: 1) Sol Price Retail Revolutionary & Social Innovator; 2) Sam Walton: Made In America; 3) Intelligent Fanatics Project

The Brooklyn Investor blog on JP Morgan, and other things (LINK)

Why & How Capitalism Needs to be Reformed - by Ray Dalio (LINK)

Apple Plus - brand versus subscription - by Benedict Evans (LINK)

Does Ridesharing Increase Traffic Deaths? - by Russ Roberts (LINK)

Ford CTO Ken ​Washington on AI and self-driving | Recode Decode Live | Full interview (video) (LINK)

Exponent Podcast: YouTube and the End of Friction (LINK)

oGoLead Leadership Podcast: Jack Nicklaus (Part 1, Part 2)

Here’s Why You’ve Never Heard Of the Most Successful People In The World - by Ryan Holiday (LINK)

Links

Jamie Dimon's 2018 Letter to Shareholders (LINK)

The Berkshire Empire Is Quietly Collaborating More Than Ever ($) (LINK)

What seven years at Airbnb taught me about building a company - by Lenny Rachitsky (LINK)

The avocado principles - by Seth Godin (LINK)

Future of Higher Education: Apprenticeships vs. Business School (LINK)

Robert A. Caro on L.B.J., Understanding Power and Nearing Completion (LINK)

Jane Goodall’s original tale of chimpanzees still astonishes today (LINK)

To celebrate her 85th birthday, National Geographic revisits Jane Goodall’s 1963 article about the chimpanzees of Gombe Stream Game Reserve.

Book of the day (released next week): The Joys of Compounding: The Passionate Pursuit of Lifelong Learning - by Gautam Baid 

Links

"Really, the only way a smart person that’s reasonably disciplined in how they look at investments can get in trouble is through leverage. I mean, if somebody else can pull the plug on you during the worst moment of some kind of general financial disaster, you go broke.... But absent leverage, and absent just kind of going crazy in terms of valuation on things, the world won’t hurt you over time in securities. And...the financial cataclysms — they don’t need to do you in. If you have any more money during periods like that, you buy." --Warren Buffett (2004)

Fees vs. Fines - by Morgan Housel (LINK)

Andreessen Horowitz Is Blowing Up The Venture Capital Model (Again) (LINK)

Jeremy Grantham at the 2019 Higher Education Climate Leadership Summit (video) [H/T Linc] (LINK)

a16z Podcast: A Podcast About Podcasting (LINK)

Trailblazers with Walter Isaacson (podcast): Public Transportation: Moving Us Forward (LINK)

Marcus Aurelius’ Psychological Toolkit: An Interview With Donald Robertson (LINK)

Related book: How to Think Like a Roman Emperor: The Stoic Philosophy of Marcus Aurelius

Links

The 2018 Broyhill Book Club (LINK)

After Autoplay: 'Interactive, Personalized & Immersive' Entertainment - by Matthew Ball (LINK)

Aramco's Big Reveal: What We Learned About the Saudi Oil Giant (LINK)

Should We Worry About the Slowing Economy? (LINK)

Invest Like the Best Podcast: Brian Singerman – Investing in the Best Founders (LINK)

The Knowledge Project Podcast: Becoming a Model Thinker (LINK)

Related book: The Model Thinker: What You Need to Know to Make Data Work for You

The Tony Robbins Podcast: Becoming Michael Phelps (LINK)

The unexpected way we might one day diagnose Alzheimer’s - by Bill Gates (LINK)

EconTalk Podcast: Jacob Stegenga on Medical Nihilism (LINK)

Related book: Medical Nihilism

The Day the Dinosaurs Died [H/T Linc] (LINK)

A young paleontologist may have discovered a record of the most significant event in the history of life on Earth.

Howard Marks Memo: Growing the Pie

Link to Memo: Growing the Pie

"The unequal sharing of blessings" vs. "the equal sharing of miseries." 

Winston Churchill posed this dilemma in 1945 with regard to post-World War II demobilization. Howard Marks revisits the idea in the context of today's contentious political debate.

Links

"If you’re picking associates, pick out those whose behavior is somewhat better than yours, and you’ll drift in that direction. And similarly if you hang out with a bad bunch, you’re very likely to find your own behavior worse over time. Like Charlie says, the trite advice which Ben Franklin was handing out a few hundred years ago, really works.... Look at the people you like to associate with. What qualities do they have that you can have if you want to? Look at the people that you can’t stand to be around. What qualities do you have that they have? Can you get rid of them? You can do all of that at a young age. It gets harder as you go along. It’s not very complicated." --Warren Buffett (2004)

Sanjay Bakshi: The Practical Utility of Seven Math Ideas (video) (LINK)

What Sports Teaches Us About Investing - by Ian Cassel (LINK)

What Does Everyone Hate MMT? - by James Montier (LINK)

Odd Lots Podcast: From MMT Advocate To Outspoken Critic (LINK)

The Absolute Return Letter, April 2019: Is Life Expectancy Falling? Really? (LINK)

The Lyft I.P.O. and the Lessons of Tech-Stock Bubbles - by John Cassidy (LINK)

Acquired Podcast: The Lyft IPO (LINK)

Andreessen Horowitz three-part video miniseries on network effects (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3)

Capital Allocators Podcast: Dan Ariely – Investing in Irrationality (LINK)

The Peter Attia Drive (podcast): Matthew Walker, Ph.D., on sleep – Part I of III (LINK)

Related book: Why We Sleep

The Worst Disease Ever Recorded - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Netflix’s Our Planet Says What Other Nature Series Have Omitted - by Ed Yong (LINK)