Friday, September 5, 2014

Links

Sanjay Bakshi lecture: Klein vs. Kahneman (LINK)

Peter Thiel profiled in Fortune (LINK)
Related book: Zero to One: Notes on Startups, or How to Build the Future
How the Next iPhone Could Finally Kill the Credit Card (LINK)

Why Buffett's son bought Rosa Parks archive [H/T Will] (LINK)

Benjamin Franklin Worked Here [H/T Daniel] (LINK)

Montaigne on Meditation (LINK)
Related books: How to LiveMichel de Montaigne - The Complete EssaysThe Essays: A Selection 
Related previous post: Memortation, or One Way to Put What You Learn to Practical Use
Books recommended by Kevin Kelly in his interview with Tim Ferriss:
He also mentioned his documentary recommendation site, True Films.

Thursday, September 4, 2014

Links

David Tepper: ECB Rate Cut Beginning of the End of Bond Rally (video) (LINK)

Mohamed El-Erian: What the ECB's Moves Mean for the World (LINK)

An Interview With Michael Pettis: The Great Rebalancing – How China’s Slowdown Will Affect the Globe [H/T ValueWalk] (video) (LINK)
Related books: The Great RebalancingAvoiding the Fall
A Call for a Low-Carb Diet That Embraces Fat (LINK)
Related books: Why We Get Fat: And What to Do About ItThe Primal Blueprint
Related link: Primal Blueprint 101
World’s largest dinosaur discovered (LINK)

Wednesday, September 3, 2014

Howard Marks Memo: Risk Revisited

Link to: Risk Revisited
In April I had good results with Dare to Be Great II, starting from the base established in an earlier memo (Dare to Be Great, September 2006) and adding new thoughts that had occurred to me in the intervening years. Also in 2006 I wrote Risk, my first memo devoted entirely to this key subject. My thinking continued to develop, causing me to dedicate three chapters to risk among the twenty in my book The Most Important Thing. This memo adds to what I’ve previously written on the topic.
.... 
Today I feel it’s important to pay more attention to loss prevention than to the pursuit of gain... Although I have no idea what could make the day of reckoning come sooner rather than later, I don’t think it’s too early to take today’s carefree market conditions into consideration. What I do know is that those conditions are creating a degree of risk for which there is no commensurate risk premium.

Links

Aswath Damodaran - The Education Business: A Road Map for Disruption (LINK)
Related mini-book (PDF): Hire Education: Mastery, Modularization, and the Workforce Revolution
Related book: Disrupting Class
Andrew Smithers: The contested ties between asset prices and QE (LINK)

Bill Gross' latest: For Wonks Only​​​ (LINK)

A thinker whose heft impressed Bill Gates (LINK)
Related book: Making the Modern World: Materials and Dematerialization
A WaveMaker Conversation With Coach Joe Moglia (LINK)
Related book: 4th and Goal: One Man's Quest to Recapture His Dream
Ben Franklin letter to l'Abbé Morellet [For the wine drinkers out there.] (LINK)
Related books: A Benjamin Franklin ReaderBenjamin FranklinBenjamin Franklin: An American Life
Seneca on Saving Time (LINK)
Related previous post: Stoicism quotes, thoughts, and readings
Related Seneca quotes from recent posts:

"Believe me, it takes a great man and one who has risen far above human weaknesses not to allow any of his time to be filched from him, and it follows that the life of such a man is very long because he has devoted wholly to himself whatever time he has had. None of it lay neglected and idle; none of it was under the control of another, for, guarding it most grudgingly, he found nothing that was worthy to be taken in exchange for his time. And so that man had time enough, but those who have been robbed of much of their life by the public, have necessarily had too little of it." -Seneca, "On the Shortness of Life"

"So it is—the life we receive is not short, but we make it so, nor do we have any lack of it, but are wasteful of it. Just as great and princely wealth is scattered in a moment when it comes into the hands of a bad owner, while wealth however limited, if it is entrusted to a good guardian, increases by use, so our life is amply long for him who orders it properly." -Seneca, "On the Shortness of Life"


Tuesday, September 2, 2014

Links

Q&A with Guy Spier On The Education Of A Value Investor (LINK)
Related book: The Education of a Value Investor
100 to 1 in the stock market (LINK)
Related book: 100 to 1 in the stock market
Wired story: Edward Snowden: The most wanted man in the world (LINK)

Lessons Learned from the Ebola Epidemic (LINK)

New book from Atul Gawande coming out in October: Being Mortal: Medicine and What Matters in the End

Monday, September 1, 2014

Guy Spier on finding the right environment

Though I already had the Kindle format of The Education of a Value Investor on pre-order (it comes out next week), the publisher was also kind enough to send me a review copy. I'm just getting into it but it appears to be a very honest telling of Guy's journey that will be full of great stories and advice along the way. Here is an example of some good advice given by Guy after discussing the first job he took out of business school, which he regretting taking: 
... I think it's important to discuss just how easy it is for any of us to get caught up in things that might seem unthinkable--to get sucked into the wrong environment and make moral compromises that can tarnish us terribly. We like to think that we change our environment, but the truth is that it changes us. So we have to be extraordinary careful to choose the right environment--to work with, even socialize with, the right people. Ideally, we should stick close to people who are better than us so that we can become more like them. 

Links

How to Get Rich: Paul Graham on Money vs. Wealth (LINK)
Related book: Hackers & Painters: Big Ideas from the Computer Age
Tim Ferriss interviews Kevin Kelly (LINK)

Why is the Shiller CAPE So High? (LINK)

Hussman Funds Annual Report (LINK)

Michelle Leder of footnoted on the Value Investing Podcast (LINK)

Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb Investor Day Transcript (May 2014)

Link to: Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb Investor Day Transcript (or in PDF)
Question:

At last year's meeting, I asked you if Google was priced to perfection and you correctly said it was not. So I am curious; at this point what do you feel its growth prospects are? Could you also comment on the recent split, particularly with the non-voting shares?

Chase Sheridan:

I will comment on the split first; I think that is the easier question. For us it is a non-event. Sergey Brin, Larry Page, and Eric Schmidt already have voting control of the company; so it does not really affect our voting power in the company, which was zero to start with, effectively. Since we are very happy with the management of Google, it is not something we spend a lot of time on. Larry Page has shown himself to be a visionary and has done a better job with the company than we could have hoped.

As for the growth prospects of Google, it is a relevant question for any company that has a $360 billion market cap. It is always an issue. We asked ourselves that when we bought the company and it had an enterprise value of $118 billion. We thought with a company of that size, can you really invest in it if it does not have the potential to be the most valuable company in the world? Our conclusion was that it had that potential. We are not making any predictions. It is looking more and more likely over time, but we will see what happens.

I have no insight into the company’s growth prospects beyond what is already out there and published. I look at what eMarketer puts out — growth in US desktop clicks and revenue is not very strong. So there are mature businesses within Google. But growth in mobile is still going like gangbusters, and Google has a greater share of mobile search than it has of desktop search. It is still penetrating some of the less-developed markets throughout the world. But eventually you have to wonder what the potential of the un-penetrated market, the remaining white space, is because Google’s penetration is rather high.

There are so many projects that Google is investing in, some of which may bear fruit. But there are two areas that I think it has yet to monetize really well. One would be the video market. Through YouTube Google has access to some of the ad dollars that go into television spending, and it is hard to see where that is going at the present moment. But there is a huge, huge pool of advertising money out there for an aggressive and innovative company to tap, and Google is in as good a position as any to try to access that. Google still has a lot of work left to do to monetize local advertising through Google Maps or Google Now. The company is putting a lot of effort into doing that. So we will see. But relative to the growth that we can see, the valuation really is not terribly demanding.

...

Question:

You have such a small holding in Costco, and it is wonderful. The share price has doubled in the last few years. I wonder why you gave the girl the engagement ring but did not get married … add more stock.

David Poppe:

I think we get back to that answer of we are not very smart. We went out to see Costco in 1999 or 2000 and met with Jim Sinegal, the CEO. The stock was $27. It was probably 20 times earnings at the time — I do not remember what the earnings were back then. We came back and thought, “Wow, great company.” I have to say I do not have a lot of heroes, but he is probably one of my favorite CEOs I have ever met. He is everything you have ever read about him. We had a toehold position in it. Fifteen years later, it is $111. We still own about a 0.1% position. So we just missed it; it happens. A lot of times they do not get into Sequoia so you do not know about them. But the only thing I would say there is you can look at a lot of pitches and take strikes, and not strike out in this game so long as you hit the ones you do swing at. Costco is one that, unfortunately, we just took a strike right down the middle.

...

Question:

About fifteen years ago, I asked Charlie Munger at a Wesco meeting what he thought of investing in natural resource stocks as a hedge against inflation. He said in very strong terms that he thought it was one of the dumber ideas he had ever heard. He proceeded to lecture about the advantages of investing in companies “awash with cash,” are the words he used. Lots of free cash flow that does not have to be pumped back into plant and equipment at inflationary prices. At this past meeting, according to the Morningstar blog, he said, “It is a blessing to have capital intensive businesses like BNSF and Berkshire Hathaway Energy, which give us an opportunity to reinvest large sums of capital at attractive rates of return.” Then he went on to indicate that future acquisitions are likely to be in capital intensive businesses. Why the complete change in investment philosophy?

Jon Brandt:

Size.

Question:

That is what I figured.

Jon Brandt:

He has to find a way to put the money to work, and he has to accept less of a return than he did in the past. Charlie would say something like it is too damn bad that we cannot invest like we did in the past. But you are just going to have to suffer through it.

I still think Berkshire can get to a double-digit growth in intrinsic value per year, even with these horrible capital intensive businesses. But ideally you want to be investing in a company that can grow and does not need to put the money to work in capital expenditures. Then you can buy more companies and you have a compound interest wealth-creating machine. Berkshire is going to be a wealth-creating machine that goes just a little slower in the future. Warren said about utilities — it is not a way to get rich, but it is a way to stay rich. I think that would be true of the railroad also.

If you look at the return on equity of the railroad — everyone talks about return on capital because that is how railroads are quasi regulated — but the return on equity at the railroad is quite adequate. That is partly due to the fact that the railroad’s leverage ratio has increased somewhat since Berkshire bought it. Also, at the utility, MidAmerican is intelligently using an increased amount of leverage in its acquisitions resulting in satisfactory returns on equity employed. The railroad has paid dividends to Berkshire equal to reported net income since Warren acquired it. Railroads are capital intensive, but in part through some borrowings, in part through the benefits of accelerated depreciation or what they call bonus depreciation, the railroad has been quote/unquote “a capital intensive company” but even with all it spent on capital, I am pretty sure it has dividended out as much free cash flow as it reported in earnings. So it is not quite as bad as it sounds. There could be some reversal of that bonus depreciation, but I still think free cash flow should be a decent percentage of the reported earnings. Same thing with the utility.

[H/T ValueWalk]

Fireside chat with Google co-founders, Larry Page and Sergey Brin with Vinod Khosla


Link to video


[H/T Exploring Markets]

Berkshire Beyond Buffett: The Enduring Value of Values (Chapter 8)

(The following is an excerpt from Chapter 8, Autonomy, from Lawrence Cunningham’s upcoming book, Berkshire Beyond Buffett: The Enduring Value of Values; the full text of the chapter, which considers the case for Berkshire’s distinctive trust-based model of corporate governance, can be downloaded free here]
. . . Berkshire corporate policy strikes a balance between autonomy and authority. Buffett issues written instructions every two years that reflect the balance. The missive states the mandates Berkshire places on subsidiary CEOs: (1) guard Berkshire’s reputation; (2) report bad news early; (3) confer about post-retirement benefit changes and large capital expenditures (including acquisitions, which are encouraged); (4) adopt a fifty-year time horizon; (5) refer any opportunities for a Berkshire acquisition to Omaha; and (6) submit written successor recommendations. Otherwise, Berkshire stresses that managers were chosen because of their excellence and are urged to act on that excellence.   
               Berkshire defers as much as possible to subsidiary chief executives on operational matters with scarcely any central supervision. All quotidian decisions would qualify: GEICO’s advertising budget and underwriting standards; loan terms at Clayton Homes and environmental quality of Benjamin Moore paints; the product mix and pricing at Johns Manville, the furniture stores and jewelry shops. The same applies to decisions about hiring, merchandising, inventory, and receivables management, whether Acme Brick, Garan, or The Pampered Chef. Berkshire’s deference extends to subsidiary decisions on succession to senior positions, including chief executive officer, as seen in such cases as Dairy Queen and Justin Brands.
Munger has said Berkshire’s oversight is just short of abdication. In a wild example, Lou Vincenti, the chief executive at Berkshire’s Wesco Financial subsidiary since its acquisition in 1973, ran the company for several years while suffering from Alzheimer’s disease—without Buffett or Munger aware of the condition. “We loved him so much,” Munger said, “that even after we found out, we kept him in his job until the week that he went off to the Alzheimer’s home. He liked coming in, and he wasn’t doing us any harm.” The two lightened a grim situation, quipping that they wished to have more subsidiaries so earnest and reputable that they could be managed by people with such debilitating medical conditions.   
There are obvious exceptions to Berkshire’s tenet of autonomy. Large capital expenditures—or the chance of that—lead reinsurance executives to run outsize policies and risks by headquarters. Berkshire intervenes in extraordinary circumstances, for example, the costly deterioration in underwriting standards at Gen Re and threatened repudiation of a Berkshire commitment to distributors at Benjamin Moore. Mandatory or not, Berkshire was involved in R. C. Willey’s expansion outside of Utah and rightly asserts itself in costly capital allocation decisions like those concerning purchasing aviation simulators at FlightSafety or increasing the size of the core fleet at NetJets.
               Ironically, gains from Berkshire’s hands-off management are highlighted by an occasion when Buffett made an exception. Buffett persuaded GEICO managers to launch a credit card business for its policyholders. Buffett hatched the idea after puzzling for years to imagine an additional product to offer its millions of loyal car insurance customers. GEICO’s management warned Buffett against the move, expressing concern that the likely result would be to get a high volume of business from its least creditworthy customers and little from its most reliable ones. By 2009, GEICO had lost more than $6 million in the credit card business and took another $44 million hit when it sold the portfolio of receivables at a discount to face value. The costly venture would not have been pursued had Berkshire stuck to its autonomy principle.
The more important—and more difficult—question is the price of autonomy.  Buffett has explained Berkshire’s preference for autonomy and assessment of the related costs: 
We tend to let our many subsidiaries operate on their own, without our supervising and monitoring them to any degree. That means we are sometimes late in spotting management problems and that [disagreeable] operating and capital decisions are occasionally made. . . . Most of our managers, however, use the independence we grant them magnificently, rewarding our confidence by maintaining an owner-oriented attitude that is invaluable and too seldom found in huge organizations. We would rather suffer the visible costs of a few bad decisions than incur the many invisible costs that come from decisions made too slowly—or not at all—because of a stifling bureaucracy.
Berkshire’s approach is so unusual that the occasional crises that result provoke public debate about which is better in corporate culture: Berkshire’s model of autonomy-and-trust or the more common approach of command-and-control. Few episodes have been more wrenching and instructive for Berkshire culture than when David L. Sokol, an esteemed senior executive with his hand in many Berkshire subsidiaries, was suspected of insider trading in an acquisition candidate’s stock. . . .
[To read the full chapter, which can be downloaded for free, click here and hit download]