Tuesday, July 30, 2019


"There are lots of things in life that come to you where you have no option to not consider the issue. But where it’s voluntary, like choosing one investment from many, then the 'too difficult' pile is a marvelous way of sifting your daily grist." --Charlie Munger (2007)

Horizon Kinetics 2Q 2019 Portfolio Update - July 17, 2019 (audio) (LINK) [If anyone at Horizon Kinetics reads this blog, it would be fantastic if you make these podcasts available for download on Overcast, etc.]

Claire Barnes' Q2 report for the Apollo Asia Fund (LINK)

Is CVS A Value Trap Or A Fallen Angel Ready To Rise Again? - by Jonathan Boyar (LINK)

GMO White Paper | Risk and Premium: A Tale of Value - by John Pease (LINK)
The performance of U.S. value over the last decade has led many to wonder whether the value premium has been completely eroded. We analyze this question by decomposing the relative returns of cheap stocks in order to understand what has driven this change in performance. Our return decomposition suggests value stocks’ performance erosion can be evenly attributed to a reduction in the value premium and a widening of the value spread. Though value might deserve to trade at a greater discount today due to the market’s current dynamics, we believe that cheap stocks are still likely to deliver a premium and are therefore well-positioned to outperform the broad market.
Passive investing boom could be causing a market bubble, but not in the stocks you would expect (LINK)
Critics of passive investing argue it is inflating the prices of high-flying stocks such as Amazon and creating a bubble in those names. However, data compiled by Ned Davis Research shows the bubble may be forming elsewhere. 
The firm found that real estate and utilities stocks are the two sectors that have benefited the most from the rise of passive investing vehicles including exchange-traded funds. ETFs hold more than 11% of the real estate sector and 9.8% of the utilities sector. 
At the individual stock level, Tanger Factory Outlet Centers, a real estate company that invests in shopping centers, has had nearly 32% of its available stock, or float, taken over by ETFs, by far the most of any stock.
With Stocks at Fresh Highs, Investors’ Portfolios Look Alike ($) (LINK)
A rally in stocks has triggered unusual circumstances for some of Wall Street’s biggest investors—they are holding many of the same companies. 
A list of the market’s most crowded trades includes Mastercard Inc., Microsoft Corp., Amazon.com Inc., Abbott Laboratories and PayPal Holdings Inc., according to analysts at Bernstein, who tracked institutional ownership, price momentum, earnings forecasts and valuations. 
The overlap in the top 50 stockholdings between mutual funds and hedge funds—two types of investors whose styles typically differ—now stands at near-record levels, a study by Bank of America Merrill Lynch found.
Hidden Networks: Network Effects That Don’t Look Like Network Effects (LINK)

Albert Wenger: World after Capital | Rise of AI conference 2019 (video) (LINK)

BIS Annual Economic Report 2019 (LINK)

Invest Like the Best Podcast: Brian Christian – How To Live With Computers (LINK)

North Star Podcast: Tren Griffin: The Love of Learning (LINK)

Hidden Forces Podcast: Raoul Pal | The Fourth Turning: Generational Theory and the Future of Global Money (LINK)

5 Mindsets that Create Success - by Mark Manson (LINK)

They Found 43,130 of Her Relatives Before Solving Her Cold Case - by Sarah Zhang (LINK)