Monday, November 9, 2015


I will be mostly without internet for the next couple of weeks. I have a few quotes and book excerpts scheduled, but this may be the last compilation of links during that time.

AMA on Charlie Munger: What did Charlie Munger Learn from Phil Fisher? (LINK)

Farnam Street: Lifelong Learning (LINK)

The Root of Wisdom: Why Old People Learn Better (LINK)

Track and Measure (LINK)
If you listed the habits of successful people, tracking and measuring would be near the top of that list. I see it with people, companies, and teams that I work with. I see it in my own behavior.
Ron Baron interviews Elon Musk at the Baron Investment Conference (video) [H/T ValueWalk] (LINK)
Related book: Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future
Richard Duncan: Yuan Devaluation Likely (LINK)

Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Psychological Whiplash (LINK)
On a 10-12 year horizon, we expect the total return of the S&P 500 to fall short of 1% annually, and given that more than that amount is likely to represent dividends, it follows that we expect the level of the S&P 500 Index to be lower 10-12 years from now than it is today (recall a similar outcome after the 2000 peak). On a shorter horizon, market action remains unfavorable as well, which leaves prospective outcomes skewed to the downside, but we don’t need to take a particularly strong near-term view. Stocks appear to be in an extended top formation much like 2000 and 2007, so our inclination is more toward patient discipline than aggressive expectations of imminent market losses.
Ray Dalio Talks Meditating With Martin Scorsese (video) (LINK)

Stoic movie review: The Martian [H/T @TimHarford] (LINK)

In 5 Minutes, He Lets the Blind See (article and video) (LINK)

When the Sun Went Medieval on Our Planet (LINK)

Here's a link to a post from earlier this year that I've been discussing among friends, related to position-sizing: A quick diversification thought...

Which also reminded me of this quote from Warren Buffett that I posted around the same time:
"If you are a professional and have confidence, then I would advocate lots of concentration. For everyone else, if it’s not your game, participate in total diversification... If it’s your game, diversification doesn’t make sense. It’s crazy to put money into your 20th choice rather than your 1st choice... Charlie and I operated mostly with 5 positions. If I were running 50, 100, 200 million, I would have 80% in 5 positions, with 25% for the largest. In 1964 I found a position I was willing to go heavier into, up to 40%. I told investors they could pull their money out. None did. The position was American Express after the Salad Oil Scandal. In 1951 I put the bulk of my net worth into GEICO. Later in 1998, LTCM was in trouble. With the spread between the on-the-run versus off-the-run 30 year Treasury bonds, I would have been willing to put 75% of my portfolio into it. There were various times I would have gone up to 75%, even in the past few years. If it’s your game and you really know your business, you can load up."
On Twitter, Ian Cassel also posted a great quote from Charlie Munger:
"Students learn corporate finance at business schools. They are taught that the whole secret is diversification. But the exact rule is the opposite. The ‘know-nothing’ investor should practice diversification, but it is crazy if you are an expert. The goal of investment is to find situations where it is safe not to diversify. If you only put 20% into the opportunity of a life-time, you are not being rational. Very seldom do we get to buy as much of any good idea as we would like to."
Related book to the above (Kelly formula): Fortune's Formula

Book of the day: Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming