Wednesday, March 13, 2013

The State of Long-Term Expectation

Chapter 12 (“The State of Long-Term Expectation”) of John Maynard Keynes’ The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money is one that seems good to go back and re-read every now and then. Jeremy Grantham mentioned it in his interview with Charlie Rose, and Warren Buffett has mentioned it on several occasions (and mentioned the quote below in his 1991 Letter).


Related Keynes quote (which he wrote in a letter to a business associate): “As time goes on, I get more and more convinced that the right method in investment is to put fairly large sums into enterprises which one thinks one knows something about and in the management of which one thoroughly believes. It is a mistake to think that one limits one’s risk by spreading too much between enterprises about which one knows little and has no reason for special confidence….One’s knowledge and experience are definitely limited and there are seldom more than two or three enterprises at any given time in which I personally feel myself entitled to put full confidence.”