Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Links

Ray Dalio on Charlie Rose discussing his book, Principles: Life and Work (video) (LINK)

Ray Dalio on CNBC (Video 1 [Bridgewater], Video 2 [economy], Video 3 [Bitcoin])

Risk Management in the Long Term - by Rick Bookstaber (LINK)

Andrew W. Lo: "Adaptive Markets: Financial Evolution At The Speed Of Thought" | Talks at Google (LINK)

The Investors Podcast: Small Cap Investing w/ Eric Cinnamond (LINK)

Invest Like the Best Podcast: Tech Investing Outside of Silicon Valley, w/ David Tisch (LINK)

Scientists Can Now Repaint Butterfly Wings - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Annual JPMorgan Energy Issue, Wednesday, June 14th, 2017 [Vaclav Smil helped in the preparation of the report.] (LINK)

Book of the day: Energy and Civilization: A History - by Vaclav Smil

Monday, September 18, 2017

Links

"I call this life a happy one in which I do one good deed after another, with no intervals between them." -Marcus Aurelius

The World Turned Upside Down (and what to do about it) - by Russ Roberts [H/T @BrentBeshore] (LINK)
So we manage to convince ourselves that the evidence speaks so loudly, so emphatically, that we have no choice but to declare our allegiance to a particular tribe as a result of that evidence. The red tribe. Or the blue one. Or the white one. Or the black one. It rarely crosses our minds to notice that causation is probably going the opposite direction — the tribe we are in determines the evidence we notice and accept.
The Difference Between Open-Minded and Close-Minded People (LINK)

Ray Dalio on a Lifetime of Principles (video) [H/T The Big Picture] (LINK)
Related book (released tomorrow): Principles: Life and Work
Ray Dalio Says He's Ready to Give Away Bridgewater's Secrets (LINK)

A Dozen Lessons from Murray Gell-Mann that Apply to Business, Investing and Life - by Tren Griffin (LINK)

The Super-Aggregators and the Russians - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

Why Facebook’s Russia revelation may trigger a global regulatory backlash against platform monopolies (LINK)

What’s the True TAM of Search? (LINK)

Victor Niederhoffer talks with Barry Ritholtz on the Masters in Business podcast (LINK)

Grant's Podcast: 20-20 Vison (LINK)

Scott Malpass, Vice President and CIO of Notre Dame University, talks to Ted Seides (podcast) (LINK)

Social Influences Affect Your New Employee's Safety Behavior [H/T Linc] (LINK)

Bill and Melinda Gates: Let's Keep Investing in the World's Poor (LINK)

Bill & Melinda Gates: The Stories Behind the Data (video) (LINK)

Approach Technology Like the Amish - by Cal Newport (LINK)

The Case Against Civilization: Did our hunter-gatherer ancestors have it better? (LINK)

Friday, September 15, 2017

Links

"The virtue of a person is measured not by his outstanding efforts, but by his everyday behavior." -Blaise Pascal

Private-Equity for Cheapskates Like You - by Jason Zweig ($) (LINK)

In China, tech giants take the retail battle to convenience stores (LINK)

Why Bonobos thought selling to Walmart was better than going public (LINK)

Exponent podcast: Episode 124 — The Watch, The Phone, The Beatles (LINK)

Hugh Hendry on Bloomberg discussing his decision to close his flagship hedge fund (video) (LINK)

Hugh Hendry's parting commentary to investors (LINK)

Hugh Hendry on the Adventures in Finance podcast (LINK)

Hugh Hendry on the Macro Voices podcast (LINK)

Review | Yes, America, PBS’s ‘The Vietnam War’ is required viewing — all 18 hours of it (LINK)

Sam Harris speaks with Ken Burns and Lynn Novick about their latest film, The Vietnam War (podcast) (LINK)

Gary Taubes on Calories vs. Carbs, The Case Against Sugar, and More (LINK)
Related book: The Case Against Sugar
Cassini Spacecraft: Top Discoveries (LINK)

Good night, Saturn (LINK)

Warren Buffett on not getting in your own way...

From July 1998 (via Tap Dancing to Work):
"So why do smart people do things that interfere with getting the output they’re entitled to? It gets into the habits and character and temperament, and behaving in a rational manner. Not getting in your own way. As I said, everybody here has the ability absolutely to do anything I do and much beyond. Some of you will, and some of you won’t. For the ones who won’t, it will be because you get in your own way, not because the world doesn’t allow you."

Thursday, September 14, 2017

Links

"Like other practicing historians, I am often asked what the 'lessons of history' are. I answer that the only lesson I have learnt from studying the past is that there are no permanent winners and losers." —Ramachandra Guha

Howard Buffett to be sworn in Friday as Macon County sheriff [H/T @NicoleFriedman] (LINK)

Ray Dalio talks with Tim Ferriss (podcast) (LINK)
Related book (released next week): Principles: Life and Work
You Need To Do What Others Don’t - by Ian Cassel (LINK)

How Bacteria Could Protect Tumors From Anticancer Drugs - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Gregg Popovich on the Spurs' philosophy and culture (video) [H/T @mlombardiNFL] (LINK)

***

In the video above, Gregg Popovich made this particular comment: 
"We talk a lot about character, and can you really change someone. If someone is selfish, can you change that and make him or her a part of the team? My bottom is, usually, they am what they am."
While it's possible to change cultures and people, and plenty of people have made huge changes in many areas of life, that comment reminded me of some things Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger have said over the years, with the particular quotes below taken from Peter Bevelin's All I Want To Know Is Where I'm Going To Die So I'll Never Go There
Buffett: "Management changes, like marital changes, are painful, time-consuming and chancy.... We don't try to change people. It doesn't work well...We accept people the way they are." 
Munger: "The failure rate at trying to change a culture is likely to be 100%." 
Buffett: "Changing cultures is really tough. I've had a little experience with that. The trick in business is to get in with a culture that's already the right kind."

Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Links

Home Capital plans to keep rebuilding the lender after Buffett's second tranche rejected (LINK)

The Lessons and Questions of the iPhone X and the iPhone 8 - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

Delivering Alpha Conference Notes 2017: Robertson, Dalio, Chanos, Cooperman & More (LINK)

Jim Chanos is skeptical on shale, betting against Continental Resources (video plays) (LINK)

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says bitcoin is a 'fraud' that will eventually blow up (video plays) (LINK)

Beyond blockchain: what are the technology requirements for a Central Bank Digital Currency? (LINK)

Evan Osnos talks to Charlie Rose about his article "The Risk of Nuclear War with North Korea" (video) (LINK)

General and Surprising - by Paul Graham (LINK)

There’s a Speeding Mass of Space Junk Orbiting Earth, Smashing Into Thing [H/T Matt] (LINK)

The Kakapo Is The First Species to Have Every Individual’s Genome Sequenced - by Ed Yong (LINK)

***

The books and/or audiobooks on my short list related to China that I'm about to start going through are listed below. If you have any other great recommendations, please let me know via email or Twitter. Thanks.

Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?

Age of Ambition: Chasing Fortune, Truth, and Faith in the New China

Poorly Made in China: An Insider's Account of the China Production Game

The Fall and Rise of China

Tuesday, September 12, 2017

Links

"Let it be emphasized once more, and especially to anyone inclined to a personally rewarding skepticism in these matters: for practical purposes, the financial memory should be assumed to last, at a maximum, no more than 20 years. This is normally the time it takes for the recollection of one disaster to be erased and for some variant on previous dementia to come forward to capture the financial mind." -John Kenneth Galbraith (A Short History of Financial Euphoria)

Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio Spreads His Gospel of ‘Radical Transparency’ [H/T @williamgreen72] (LINK)
Related book: Principles: Life and Work
How Kirkland Signature Became One of Costco’s Biggest Success Stories ($) (LINK)

David Gardner, co-founder of the Motley Fool, talks with Patrick O’Shaughnessy on the Invest Like the Best podcast (LINK)

Origin Stories podcast: Stones and How to Use Them (LINK)
Related book: Stone Tools in Human Evolution
Trying to Get Ahead? Plan in Reverse, Study Suggests [H/T @AdamMGrant] (LINK)

Monday, September 11, 2017

Links

"Life is neither suffering nor pleasure, but the business which we have to do, and which we have to finish honestly, up to our life's end." -Alexis De Tocqueville

A Thesis on the U.S. Airline Industry - by Phil Ordway (LINK)

The "Indian Coffee Can Portfolio" [H/T @chriswmayer] (LINK)

Grant’s Podcast: Empty seats at the Fed -- and empty data from Facebook (LINK)

a16z Podcast: Adjusting to Trade… and Innovation (LINK)

The Remarkable Laziness Of Woody Allen [H/T The Browser] (LINK)

***

The latest Audible sale, which ends September 17, 2017 at 11:59 PM PT, has a number of good titles on sale for $4.95 for Audible members. Below are some that stood out to me:

The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined

The Silk Roads: A New History of the World

Deep Work: Rules for Focused Success in a Distracted World

TED Talks: The Official TED Guide to Public Speaking

The Productivity Project: Accomplishing More by Managing Your Time, Attention, and Energy

No One Would Listen: A True Financial Thriller

Red Notice: A True Story of High Finance, Murder and One Man's Fight for Justice

The Untethered Soul: The Journey Beyond Yourself

The Man Who Mistook His Wife for a Hat: and Other Clinical Tales

Spaceman: An Astronaut's Unlikely Journey to Unlock the Secrets of the Universe

A Universe from Nothing: Why There Is Something Rather Than Nothing

The Disappearing Spoon: And Other True Tales of Madness, Love, and the History of the World from the Periodic Table of the Elements

The Selfish Gene

Saturday, September 9, 2017

Links

The hardcover of the new book by Paul Sonkin and Paul Johnson, Pitch the Perfect Investment: The Essential Guide to Winning on Wall Street, has started to ship and I just received my copy in the mail. I started to go through it this morning, and have a feeling it is going to be used in a lot of university classrooms, as it covers all of the main points (how to value a business, competitive advantages, behavioral finance, pitching an idea, etc.) more succinctly than any textbook I've seen. At a little over 400 non-textbook sized pages and plenty of illustrations, it's also something that a class could go through completely in one semester. 

***

Klarman's Baupost Plans to Return Some Investor Money [H/T Matt] (LINK)

Jason Trennert and Jason Zweig on WealthTrack (video) [H/T Will] (LINK)

Warren Buffett’s $100 billion problem [H/T Linc] (LINK)

A Dozen Lessons about Business and Life from Jimmy Iovine - by Tren Griffin (LINK)

Friday, September 8, 2017

Links

The Risk of Nuclear War with North Korea - by Evan Osnos (LINK)
On the ground in Pyongyang: Could Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump goad each other into a devastating confrontation?
Kyle Bass on the Adventures in Finance podcast (LINK)
Season 2 of Adventures in Finance kicks off with Kyle Bass joining Grant for this week’s entire episode. Kyle shares some of the Defining Moments of his life and explains how they shaped him. He tells us a story of a disastrous trade gone wrong, answers listener’s questions from the Real Vision Mailbag, and explains what he’d take on a rocket ship to Mars.
Exponent podcast: Episode 123 — There Is No Going Back (LINK)
Ben and James discuss the why it is Ben can’t stop talking about Aggregation Theory, and the future of regulation.
FT Alphachat podcast: The making of the crisis in Venezuela (LINK)
Economist Ricardo Hausmann joins Cardiff Garcia to discuss the historical foundation of Venezuela's current macroeconomic and humanitarian crisis, what may happen with its debt and what the future holds for the country.
Invest Like the Best podcast: Factors, Dividends, and Angel Investing, w/ Meb Faber (LINK)
My guest this week is Meb Faber, who started a podcast similar to this one right before mine and was a big reason I was open to the idea in the first place. Meb is a quantitative researcher whose firm Cambria has been behind many interesting investment strategies that break the Wall Street mold. We talk investing factors, dividends, angel investing, podcasts and more. This was a fun catch up with a close friend in the industry who has been in a leader in using data to explore the best active strategies in a variety of asset classes. Please enjoy our conversation, which begins with a factor draft.
The Crowd: Social Schizophrenia - by Frank K. Martin (LINK)
Related book: The Crowd: A Study of the Popular Mind (also on Audible as of earlier this year, HERE.)

Thursday, September 7, 2017

Howard Marks Memo: Yet Again?

Link to Memo: Yet Again?
There They Go Again . . . Again” of July 26 has generated the most response in the 28 years I’ve been writing memos, with comments coming from Oaktree clients, other readers, the print media and TV.  I also understand my comments regarding digital currencies have been the subject of extensive – and critical – comments on social media, but my primitiveness in this regard has kept me from seeing them.
 
The responses and the time that has elapsed have given me the opportunity to listen, learn and think.  Thus I’ve decided to share some of those reflections here.

Wednesday, September 6, 2017

Links

"Overpermissive providers of capital frequently aid and abet financial bubbles. . . .  In Field of Dreams, Kevin Costner was told, 'if you build it, they will come.'  In the financial world, if you offer cheap money, they will borrow, buy and build – often without discipline, and with very negative consequences." -Howard Marks (November 2001)

TED Talk -- Ray Dalio: How to build a company where the best ideas win (LINK)
Related book: Principles: Life and Work - by Ray Dalio
Everything is Changing; So Should Antitrust - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

The Dhandho Investor’s Guide to Calculating Intrinsic Value (LINK)
Related book: The Dhandho Investor
Dan Pink: Why you should take notes by hand (video) (LINK)

Tuesday, September 5, 2017

Links

The Audible Daily Deal for today ($3.95) is the latest from Lawrence Krauss: The Greatest Story Ever Told--So Far: Why Are We Here?

Reciprocation Bias (LINK)

Tiny changes can have big implications - by Sanjay Bakshi (LINK)

Inside Amazon's foray into fashion as it takes on the high street  with its own new brand [H/T @Wexboy_Value] (LINK)

Reid Hoffman has billions of dollars and one of the best networks in Silicon Valley. Here’s how he’s using them to take on Trump. (LINK)

Recode Decode podcast: The race for self-driving cars is on (Chris Urmson, CEO, Aurora) (LINK)

What Jason Zweig read this summer (LINK)

Kirkus Reviews: Leonardo da Vinci – by Walter Isaacson (LINK)

Monday, September 4, 2017

Links

Philosophical Economics: Profit Margins, Bayes’ Theorem, and the Dangers of Overconfidence (LINK)

2006 paper from Michael Mauboussin -- "Expectations Investing: Reading Stock
Prices for Better Returns" (LINK)

FRMO August 2017 Letter [H/T @BluegrassCap] (LINK)

A Dozen Lessons about Investing and Money from Dan Ariely - by Tren Griffin (LINK)
Related book (to be released in November): Dollars and Sense: How We Misthink Money and How to Spend Smarter
Mutual Fund Observer, September 2017 (LINK)

Kroger Seeks to Repel Amazon’s Onslaught ($) (LINK)

Has disruption from e-commerce run its course? (LINK)

These Robots Are Using Static Electricity to Make Nikes [H/T @kevinroose] (LINK)

Sheryl Sandberg Just Gave Some Brilliant Career Advice. Here It Is in 2 Words [H/T @ChrisPavese] (LINK)
I want you to think about the following question, because it can mean the difference between just getting through the day at work, and doing the best work of your life.  
What's the most important thing you can get done today? 
Sheryl Sandberg recently spoke to Inc. to share some lessons learned over the years. One concept she spoke about really resonated with me. 
It's called:  
Ruthless prioritization. 
"I think the most important thing we've learned as we've grown is that we have to prioritize," said Sandberg. "We talk about it as ruthless prioritization. And by that what we mean is only do the very best of the ideas. Lots of times you have very good ideas. But they're not as good as the most important thing you could be doing. And you have to make the hard choices."
a16z Podcast: Competing Against Luck (LINK)
Related book: Competing Against Luck  
Related previous conversation between Christensen and Andreessen: a16z Podcast: Disruption in Business… and Life
Prof Scott Galloway’s 10 Rules for Your Career (LINK)

An old post I was reminded of and have been thinking about today: Charlie Munger on how he invested when younger compared to today, and how he reads books

Friday, September 1, 2017

Links

"A person who knows little likes to talk, and one who knows much mostly keeps silent. This is because a person who knows little thinks that everything he knows is important, and wants to tell everyone. A person who knows much also knows that there is much more he doesn't know. That's why he speaks only when it is necessary to speak, and when he is not asked questions, he keeps his silence." - (After) Jean Jacques Rousseau (via A Calendar of Wisdom)

Filters in Harmony (What Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Scott Adams, and Jordan Peterson have in common) (video) (LINK)

Overcoming Your Demons - by Morgan Housel (LINK)

Amazon is Relentless (LINK)

FT Alphachat podcast: Should Amazon be broken up? (LINK)
Lina Khan, a writer and fellow at New America, joins FT Alphaville's Alex Scaggs to discuss how the tech company's unique organisational structure and business strategy raise possible antitrust issues that current law isn't particularly well designed to address. It's the subject of Khan's paper, "Amazon's antitrust paradox", recently published in the Yale Law Journal.
Apple’s New Open Office Sparks Revolt (LINK)

Role-Play Screening - by Eric Cinnamond (LINK)

The Absolute Return Letter, September 2017: Two Sides of the Same Coin (LINK)
Rarely have equity bulls and bears disagreed more than they do at present. We look at both the bull case and the bear case, and then we introduce a longer-term structural angle, which is largely ignored by both bulls and bears. This third side of the coin is based on the fact that inflation is structurally low, and that central banks may be committing a serious policy error by targeting 2% inflation, when it is almost impossible to drive inflation to those levels.
Origin Stories podcast: Ancestor (LINK)
Just recently, the news media announced the discovery of a 13 million-year-old fossil ape called Alesi. This remarkable fossil was found in Kenya, and it’s from a time period where there’s a big blank spot in the fossil record of our family tree. Alesi tells us something new about the very early evolution of apes and even shows what the common ancestor of humans and all the other living apes might have looked like. In this episode, Isaiah Nengo tells the story behind the discovery.
The Parasite That Wires Plants Together - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Thursday, August 31, 2017

Audible's End-of-Summer Sale

I'm a bit late to this and the sale ends tonight, but for Audible members that see this in time, there are some good titles on the list for $4.95:

Boyd: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War

Hedge Fund Market Wizards

The Brain That Changes Itself: Personal Triumphs from the Frontiers of Brain Science

Big Data Baseball: Math, Miracles, and the End of a 20-Year Losing Streak

Big Data: A Revolution That Will Transform How We Live, Work, and Think

The Talent Code: Unlocking the Secret of Skill in Sports, Art, Music, Math, and Just About Anything

How Bad Do You Want It?: Mastering the Psychology of Mind over Muscle

American Ulysses: A Life of Ulysses S. Grant

From Bacteria to Bach and Back: The Evolution of Minds

Welcome to the Universe: An Astrophysical Tour

The Dharma Bums

Once an Eagle: A Novel

Links

Blog Note: There is now a new way to support this blog by signing up for the The Starwood Preferred Guest® Credit Card from American Express through THIS LINK. For those that may not need a new credit card now but want to consider it for later, I'll also keep a link on the right side of the blog's home page. 

***

Warren Buffett's appearance on Bloomberg from yesterday (video) (LINK) [The full CNBC appearance is also on YouTube HERE.]

The man who sold his supermarket to Whole Foods talks about the future of grocery stores [H/T Linc] (LINK)

How Washington Made Harvey Worse [H/T @chriswmayer] (LINK)

How I Built This podcast -- Reddit: Alexis Ohanian & Steve Huffman (LINK)

How Science Is Unlocking the Secrets of Addiction [H/T Phil] (LINK)

How Much More Can We Learn About the Universe? - by Lawrence Krauss (LINK)

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

Links

"A wise man looks for everything inside of himself; a madman seeks for everything in others." -Confucius

Warren Buffett on CNBC -- Links to videos:

Warren Buffett on his power lunch for charity  









***

Warren Buffett Backs Nuclear Fuel Bank In Kazakhstan [H/T Linc] (LINK)

In an unusual partnership, Amazon and Microsoft are working together to extend the abilities of their voice-controlled digital assistants. (LINK)

Chamath Palihapitiya on the Recode Decode podcast (LINK)

The Future of the Planet: Life, Growth and Death in Organisms, Cities and Companies, with Geoffrey West (video) (LINK)
Related book: Scale

Tuesday, August 29, 2017

Links

The Great Gatsby's Long Island Mansion Listed for $17 Million (LINK)
F. Scott Fitzgerald placed his hero in this home in The Great Gatsby. Now it's being sold by James Mai, a financial whiz made immortal in The Big Short for having foreseen the 2008 financial crisis.
Critics of Controversial Insurer Dogged by Mysterious Strangers (LINK)

Discipline is having the strength to say No - by Ian Cassel (LINK)

Invest Like the Best podcast: The Wu Tang Clan of Finance, w/ Team Ritholtz (LINK)

Waking Up podcast: Sam Harris speaks with Max Tegmark about his new book Life 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence (LINK)

Richard Dawkins on the Think Again podcast (LINK)
Related book: Science in the Soul: Selected Writings of a Passionate Rationalist
When the Moon ate the Sun - by Phil Plait (LINK)

Monday, August 28, 2017

Links

"If you want to be a clever person, you have to learn how to ask cleverly, how to listen attentively, how to respond quietly, and how to stop talking when there is nothing more to say." -Leo Tolstoy (A Calendar of Wisdom)

The Wrong Side of Right (LINK)

Thousands of rail workers back at Buffett's BNSF as volumes rise [H/T Linc] (LINK)

Good News for Young Strivers: Networking Is Overrated - by Adam Grant (LINK)

Uber's New CEO - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

Benedict Evans talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the future of cars (podcast) (LINK)

Dan Egan from Betterment on the Capital Allocators podcast (LINK)

Chastised by E.U., a Resentful Greece Embraces China’s Cash and Interests [H/T @manualofideas] (LINK)

Amazon Cuts Whole Foods Prices as Much as 43% on First Day (video plays) (LINK)

A Stoic’s Key to Peace of Mind: Seneca on the Antidote to Anxiety (LINK)

"Many stupid things are uttered by people whose only motivation is to say something original. " -Voltaire

Sunday, August 27, 2017

Links

Despite steady profits, railroads have laid off thousands - and more cuts are likely on the way [H/T Linc] (LINK)

A Dozen Attributes of a Scalable Business - by Tren Griffin (LINK)

Exponent podcast: Episode 122 — From Intel to Disney (LINK)

Tips for saving money on a trip to Disney World (LINK)

Arthur Schopenhauer: the first European Buddhist [H/T The Browser] (LINK)

Book of the day (to be released in December): A Dozen Lessons for Entrepreneurs - by Tren Griffin

Friday, August 25, 2017

Links

The 19 Questions to Ask Your Financial Adviser - by Jason Zweig (LINK)

GMO White Paper -- The Good Thing About Climate Change: Opportunities (LINK)
In this white paper, Lucas White, GMO Climate Change portfolio manager, and Jeremy Grantham describe the exciting opportunities in companies in the public equity market who are involved in combating climate change (i.e., the climate change sector), either through climate change mitigation or helping the world adapt to climate change.
Horizon Kinetics' New Commentary: When is A P/E Not a P/E, or How To Turn 90 into 22 in Three Easy Steps (LINK)

Gresham’s Law & Growing Weeds - by Frank K. Martin (LINK)

The Logic of Risk Taking – by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (LINK)

What I Learned in the Last year - by Morgan Housel (LINK)

Inside Waymo's Secret World for Training Self-Driving Cars (LINK)

How Roger Federer Upgraded His Game [H/T @MarceloPLima] (LINK)

A Grand Unified Theory of Unhealthy Microbiomes - by Ed Yong (LINK)
The Anna Karenina hypothesis says that every unbalanced microbiome is unbalanced in its own way.

Thursday, August 24, 2017

Links

"And when you try too hard, it doesn’t work. Try grabbing something quickly and precisely with a tensed-up arm; then relax and try it again. Try doing something with a tense mind. The surest way to become Tense, Awkward, and Confused is to develop a mind that tries too hard – one that thinks too much." - The Tao of Pooh by Benjamin Hoff 

The Latticework Podcast: Tom Russo on Global Investing and Mental Models in a Changing World (LINK)

See's Candies finds that brick-and-mortar stores are still a sweet spot [H/T Linc] (LINK)

Oaktree Insights: Investing in Real Assets Today (LINK)

Who really owns American farmland? [H/T @chriswmayer] (LINK)

This Robot Ship Experiment Could Disrupt the Global Shipping Industry [H/T Matt] (LINK)

Take a look at Uber’s first pitch deck from 2008 (LINK)

The Rise of Market Power? - by Tyler Cowen (LINK)

Don't forget the second step - by Seth Godin (LINK)

Why so Sirius? - by Phil Plait (LINK)

How Mushrooms Became Magic - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Wednesday, August 23, 2017

Links

"Anybody who thinks he knows what's going to happen in the investment world is deceiving himself. But anybody who thinks he knows when it's going to happen is really off base, in my opinion. I sometimes talk about what should happen, but I never talk about when it will happen." -Howard Marks

Howard Marks on ET NOW (video) [H/T ValueWalk] (LINK)

How to Teach Engineering to a 5-Year-Old - By Bill Gates (LINK)

Disney’s Choice - by Ben Thompson (LINK)
...while the term [disruptive] is overused, the formulation is actually quite simple: a new entrant leverages a technical innovation to serve customers with a business model incumbents cannot compete with, and over time moves up the value chain until those incumbents end up with a worse product that is more expensive to boot.
Winner-takes all effects in autonomous cars - by Benedict Evans (LINK)

Mutual Funds Mark Down Uber Investments by Up to 15% (LINK)

Bottom-Up Economics - by Eric Cinnamond (LINK)

Amazon vs Maersk: The clash of titans shaking the container industry [H/T Market Folly] (LINK)

Why the Best Products Lose All the Time, According to Tony Robbins (video) (LINK)

Want to Work From Home? Tim Ferriss on the Best Way to Start (video) (LINK)

Bill Nye: "Everything All At Once" | Talks at Google (LINK)
Related book: Everything All at Once: How to Unleash Your Inner Nerd, Tap into Radical Curiosity and Solve Any Problem
Book of the day (an investing classic just re-released): Fortunes in Special Situations in the Stock Market - by Maurece Schiller

Tuesday, August 22, 2017

Links

The Heilbrunn Center for Graham & Dodd Investing's Schloss Archives (Schloss, Buffett, Graham, and more) [H/T @mjmauboussin] (LINK)

Sempra Energy to buy Oncor for $9.45 billion in blow for Berkshire (LINK)

Read Warren Buffett's touching tribute to NYSE's James Maguire (video plays) [H/T Linc] (LINK)

How to be Rational about Rationality - by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (LINK)

Pat Dorsey talks with Patrick O'Shaughnessy (podcast) (LINK)

Speculation in a Truth Chamber (Philosophical Economics blog) (LINK)

How a New Audit Rule Could Bring Sunshine to U.S. Markets - by Jason Zweig (LINK)

What Would a Healthy Music Streaming Business (e.g., Spotify, SoundCloud, Pandora) Look Like? - by Tren Griffin (LINK)

Some great investing insights -- especially in regards to investing in small and micro-cap companies -- from an interview with Jeff Gramm (LINK)

How I Built This podcast -- Edible Arrangements: Tariq Farid (LINK)

How Climate Change Canceled the Grizzly Salmon Run - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Book of the day [H/T 50 Things podcast]: A New Brand of Business: Charles Coolidge Parlin, Curtis Publishing Company, and the Origins of Market Research

***

For those that may have been considering buying the Amazon Echo in the past but were waiting for a better time, it is currently on sale for $99.99 ($80 off), HERE.

Monday, August 21, 2017

Negotiation and loss aversion

The excerpt below from Peter Bevelin's All I Want To Know Is Where I'm Going To Die So I'll Never Go There is one that seems timely to think about; and to use as a lens to help understand some of the political-related events in today's world, and why some negotiations may end up the way they do. It is also is a good example of why I think I'll continuously be reading Peter's book over the years, as I gain insights to help me think about the world each time I open it up.

***

Librarian  "If we can only gain from a situation, we avoid risk, but when we feel threatened or are in really deep trouble, we fight a lot harder and take larger risks. No one is as dangerous as the opponent who fights for his survival. It is like the story about the rabbit and the fox. Why does a rabbit run faster than a fox?"

Seeker  "You tell me."

Librarian  "Aesop said, 'The rabbit runs faster than the fox, because the rabbit is running for his life while the fox is only running for his dinner.' Any many studies of animals show that 'defenders of a territory almost invariably overcome intruders of the same species who try to take over their territory. Residents who face the risk of losing their territory exert more effort than challengers who try to gain new territory.'"

"As Baltasar Gracián said, 'Never contend with a man who has nothing to lose.' Or someone who has everything to lose. So you can imagine what happens in a negotiation where one party can only gain and the other one has everything to lose. Or when both parties face losses."

Seeker  "It increases the chance of conflict. If I had faced a choice between losing for sure and 'surviving by fighting' -- even if the chance was minuscule -- I pick the fight."

Librarian  "Then you can understand how difficult it is to reach some agreement in cases where both parties have to give up something or make a concession to get something else. We'd rather take a conflict than make a concession."

Seeker  "Let me have a try on concessions -- getting one feels like a gain but giving one feels like a loss. And since we hate losses more than we like equal gains it will be tough to reach a 'fair' agreement since both parties see it as unfair."

Librarian  "Yes, and our loss aversion explains why we always undervalue what we get relative to what we give."

"Instead, try to see things from your counterparty's point of view and don't mind [making] concessions on minor matters if that more easily leads to the more important matters settled to your advantage. Only take a firm stand on really important things."

Friday, August 18, 2017

Links

"If my mind could gain a firm footing, I would not make essays, I would make decisions; but it is always in apprenticeship and on trial." -Michel de Montaigne

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report as a Harbinger - by Frank K. Martin (LINK)

Exponent podcast: Episode 121 — The Uber Mutation (LINK)

FT Alphachat podcast: Buchheit and Gulati on restructuring Venezuela's debt (LINK)
Lee Buchheit and Mitu Gulati, two of the world's foremost experts on sovereign debt restructuring, join the FT's Robin Wigglesworth to explain Venezuela's looming debt crisis and options for solving it, while the country's economic collapse and humanitarian problems continue to worsen.
Henry Kissinger talks to Charlie Rose (video) (LINK)
Henry Kissinger, former secretary of state, shares his thoughts on resolving the North Korea crisis, the U.S. relationship with China, and Donald Trump.
Here are the paths of the next 15 total solar eclipses (LINK)

Thursday, August 17, 2017

Links

Berkshire Hathaway Energy Stands Firm on Its Offer to Acquire Oncor (LINK)

The Canadian Housing Market is Bananas - by Ben Carlson (LINK)

A 2014 book review of Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital [H/T @sanguit] (LINK)
Related video: Web 2.0 Expo NY 2011, A Conversation with Fred Wilson and Carlota Perez
Lessons from 50,000 Interviews: Larry King and Cal Fussman (podcast) (LINK)

Revisionist History podcast: “The Basement Tapes” (LINK)
A cardiologist in Minnesota searches through the basement of his childhood home for a missing box of data from a long-ago experiment. What he discovers changes our understanding of the modern American diet — but also teaches us something profound about what really matters when we honor our parents’ legacy.
Frederick Douglass’s 1866 essay for The Atlantic on how Congress can cope with a chief executive who refuses to recognize the rights of all citizens (LINK)

At Last, A Big, Successful Trial of Probiotics - by Ed Yong (LINK)

The Origin Story of Animals Is a Song of Ice and Fire - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Book of the day [H/T @chriswmayer]: Pitch the Perfect Investment: The Essential Guide to Winning on Wall Street - by Paul D. Sonkin and Paul Johnson

Wednesday, August 16, 2017

Links

The FPA Crescent Fund's Q2 Commentary and Webcast are available.

One of the World’s Widest Moats - by John Huber (LINK) [John's presentation pairs nicely with the Naspers/Tencent arbitrage discussed in the FPA Crescent Commentary above.]

A Conversation with Naval Ravikant about blockchains (video) (LINK)

Robert Sapolsky on the Waking Up podcast discussing his book Behave: The Biology of Humans at Our Best and Worst (LINK) [As Michael Mauboussin‏ tweeted earlier this week: "Just finished 'Behave' by the brilliant Robert Sapolsky. The best book I have ever read on human behavior. Sapolsky is an amazing teacher."]

Robert E. Lee opposed Confederate monuments (LINK)

How to be a Stoic, in practice - by Massimo Pigliucci (LINK)

Why did single cells start to cooperate? (LINK)

What Scientists Have Learned from Eclipses (video) (LINK)

Today's Audible Daily Deal ($2.95) is a short Neil deGrasse Tyson course from The Great Courses: My Favorite Universe

Tuesday, August 15, 2017

Links

GMO White Paper -- The S&P 500: Just Say No (LINK)
In this white paper, Matt Kadnar and James Montier, members of GMO’s Asset Allocation team, examine current US equity market valuations using several measures, starting with GMO’s own seven-year asset class forecast framework. They come to the same conclusion each time – the S&P 500 is exceptionally expensive. With this in mind, they then weigh in on what investors should and shouldn’t do in such an environment.
Warren Buffett Cashes Out on GE, Cashing In on Crisis Loan (LINK)

The Awesome But Mostly Unknown Story of Carlsberg Beer in China (Part 1, Part 2)
Related book: The One Hour China Consumer Book
Jason Zweig and Morgan Housel talk with Patrick O'Shaughnessy (podcast) (LINK)

Grant's Podcast: Alpine slide (LINK)

Why Cryptocurrencies Will Never Be Safe Havens - by Mark Spitznagel (LINK)

The next wave of computing – by Muneeb Ali (LINK)

Can Humans Understand Chimps? - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Monday, August 14, 2017

Links

Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Work, Slavery, the Minority Rule, and Skin in the Game (EconTalk podcast) (LINK)

The Uber Dilemma - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

The Butterfly Effect: Everything You Need to Know About this Powerful Mental Model (LINK)

When Cheaper P/E Ratios Mean Nothing - by Jason Zweig (LINK)

What’s Happenin’ - by Eric Cinnamond (LINK)

An interview with Kenneth Jeffrey Marshall, author of Good Stocks Cheap (LINK)

Now Advising China’s State Firms: The Communist Party ($) [H/T Matt] (LINK)
A push to establish the Communist Party in Chinese state enterprises is rolling through Hong Kong, raising corporate-governance concerns in one of the year’s best-performing stock markets. 
Since 2016, at least 32 Chinese state-owned companies or units listed in Hong Kong have proposed changes to their corporate structures to install Communist Party committees that advise their boards of directors. The moves, most coming in recent months, are prompting questions from market participants about who holds power at these companies, and whether they will be run for the benefit of investors. 
The changes follow directives from Beijing, which has been pushing to establish the Communist Party’s role in corporate charters on the mainland. They make explicit what many had already assumed: that China’s ruling party—the country’s sole governing authority despite the existence of several other political parties—keeps a tight grip on the country’s state-owned firms. Those firms now make up the bulk of Hong Kong’s market.
How I Read When Researching a Book - by Cal Newport (LINK)

The Next Chapter in a Viral Arms Race - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Sunday, August 13, 2017

Links

Joel Tillinghast Finds Big Returns in Small Stocks ($) (LINK)
Related book: Big Money Thinks Small: Biases, Blind Spots, and Smarter Investing
10,000 Hours With Claude Shannon: How A Genius Thinks, Works, and Lives [H/T @chriswmayer] (LINK)
Related book: A Mind at Play: How Claude Shannon Invented the Information Age
A Dozen Lessons about Product and Services Pricing (Including being “Too Hungry to Eat”) - by Tren Griffin (LINK)

A Tesla 2017 Update: A Disruptive Force and a Debt Puzzle! - by Aswath Damodaran (LINK)

Benchmark Capital sues Travis Kalanick for fraud (LINK)

Walter Isaacson video: What Leonardo can teach us (LINK)
Related book (to be released in October): Leonardo da Vinci
Scott Galloway on the FT Alphachat podcast (LINK)
Related book (to be released in October): The Four: The Hidden DNA of Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google
a16z Podcast: Centers of Power, War, and History (LINK)
Related book: Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?
A Conversation With Richard Dawkins [H/T The Browser] (LINK)
Related book: Science in the Soul: Selected Writings of a Passionate Rationalist
How Humans Turned a Sea Snake to the Dark Side - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Thursday, August 10, 2017

Links

"There is always a better way of doing everything than the way which is standard at the moment. It is a good thing for a man to be pushed into finding that better way." -Harvey Firestone (via Men and Rubber: The Story of Business)

Howard Marks on CNBC (Video 1, Video 2)

Hot-Stock Rally Tests the Patience of a Choosy Lot: Value Investors ($) [H/T Matt] (LINK)

Wells Fargo: What It Will Take to Clean Up the Mess [H/T Linc] (LINK)

Dan Carlin's Hardcore History Podcast: Show 60 - The Celtic Holocaust (LINK)
Julius Caesar is our travel guide as he takes us through his murderous subjugation of the native Celtic tribal peoples of ancient Gaul. It sounds vaguely like other, recent European colonial conquests...until the natives nearly win.
The Tim Ferriss Show: From Long-Shot to $50 Billion Empire – Bill Rasmussen (LINK)
Bill Rasmussen is the co-founder of ESPN. He turned a massive gamble into an opportunity to create the 24-hour programming cycle used universally by networks today.
Revisionist History Podcast: "McDonald's Broke My Heart" (LINK)
McDonald’s used to make the best fast food french fries in the world — until they changed their recipe in 1990. Revisionist History travels to the top food R&D lab in the country to discover what was lost, and why for the past generation we’ve been eating french fries that taste like cardboard.
These Scientists Took Over a Computer by Encoding Malware in DNA - by Ed Yong (LINK)

"The mind, unconquered by violent passions, is a citadel, for a man has no fortress more impregnable in which to find refuge and remain safe forever." -Marcus Aurelius (Source)

Wednesday, August 9, 2017

Links

"We rule out people 90% of the time. Maybe we're wrong sometimes, but what's important is the ones we let in." -Warren Buffett (Source)

With e-commerce hurting malls, See’s Candies seeks way forward [H/T Linc] (LINK)

Metaphorically speaking about business and investing - by Sanjay Bakshi (LINK)

Intuition & Einstein’s Greatest Ideas - by Frank Martin (LINK)

Broyhill Mid-Year Letter (LINK)

Returns on Capital and an Investment Idea - by John Huber (LINK)

Funds target 'unknown' stocks as Wall Street cuts analyst jobs [H/T Matt] (LINK)

Grant’s Podcast: Texas teatime (LINK)

Invest Like the Best Podcast: Just Manageable Challenges, with Brad Stulberg (LINK)

The Knowledge Project Podcast: Ed Latimore on The Secret to a Happy Life (LINK)

Meet Patagotitan, the Biggest Dinosaur Ever Found - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Monday, August 7, 2017

Links

IBM PC: The complete history [H/T @chriswmayer] (Part 1, Part 2)

To Catch a Counterfeiter [H/T @chriswmayer] (LINK)

EconTalk podcast: Tyler Cowen on Stubborn Attachments, Prosperity, and the Good Society (LINK)

How I Built This podcast -- Rent The Runway: Jenn Hyman (LINK)

a16z Podcast: The Strategies and Tactics of Big (LINK)

Confirmed: Night Lights Drive Pollinators Away From Plants - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Venezuela Is Collapsing: Interview with Stanford political scientist Terry Lynn Karl [H/T The Browser] (LINK)
Related book: The Paradox of Plenty: Oil Booms and Petro-States

The wise know their limitations; the foolish do not.

From The Tao of Pooh:
"A fish can't whistle and neither can I." Coming from a wise mind, such a statement would mean, "I have certain limitations, and I know what they are." Such a mind would act accordingly. There's nothing wrong with not being able to whistle, especially if you're a fish. But there can be lots of things wrong with blindly trying to do what you aren't designed for. Fish don't live in trees, and birds don't spend too much time underwater if they can help it. Unfortunately, some people—who always seem to think they're smarter than fish and birds, somehow—aren't so wise, and end up causing big trouble for themselves and others. 
That doesn't mean that we need to stop changing and improving. It just means that we need to recognize What's There. If you face the fact that you have weak muscles, say, then you can do the right things and eventually become strong. But if you ignore What's There and try to lift someone's car out of a ditch, what sort of condition will you be in after a while? And even if you have more muscle than anyone alive, you still can't push over a freight train. The wise know their limitations; the foolish do not. 
...A saying from the area of Chinese medicine would be appropriate to mention here: "One disease, long life; no disease, short life." In other words, those who know what's wrong with them and take care of themselves accordingly will tend to live a lot longer than those who consider themselves perfectly healthy and neglect their weaknesses. So, in that sense at least, a Weakness of some sort can do you a big favor, if you acknowledge that it's there. The same goes for one's limitations, whether Tiggers know it or not—and Tiggers usually don't. That's the trouble with Tiggers, you know: they can do everything. Very unhealthy. 
Once you face and understand your limitations, you can work with them, instead of having them work against you and get in your way, which is what they do when you ignore them, whether you realize it or not. And then you will find that, in many cases, your limitations can be your strengths. 

Sunday, August 6, 2017

Links

The Market Really Is Different This Time - by Jason Zweig (LINK)
The market has hit Dow 22000 not because of the individual investors Wall Street calls “the dumb money” but in spite of them. 
Over the past month, small investors have pulled $17 billion out of U.S. stock mutual funds and exchange-traded funds and added $29 billion to bond funds. That’s the latest leg of a long-term trend: Since the internet-stock bubble burst in 2000, investors have withdrawn half a trillion dollars from U.S. stock mutual funds.
Jeff Brotman Hit the Big Time With Costco (LINK)
“He was one of the smartest businessmen that has ever operated in America,” said Charles Munger, a Costco board member and vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
Rick Bookstaber is going to start blogging again (LINK)

More Bookstaber: The Four Horsemen of the Econopocalypse (LINK)
Related book: The End of Theory
Counting Boxes - by Eric Cinnamond (LINK)

A Dozen Lessons about Angel Investing from Jason Calacanis (Poker Edition) - by Tren Griffin (LINK)

Finding “Unicorns:” Questions to Ask Before You Invest in a Startup (LINK)

The Transformation of the ‘American Dream’ - by Robert Shiller (LINK)

Masters in Business podcast: Richard Clarida of Pimco on the New Neutral of Monetary Policy (LINK)

a16z Video: What is the S-curve? (LINK)

Have Smartphones Destroyed a Generation? [H/T @morganhousel] (LINK)

Friday, August 4, 2017

Links

The 2Q2017 GMO Quarterly Letter (LINK)
Ben Inker discusses his current view of emerging market equities, making the case that emerging value is currently the cheapest asset class. In fact, based on one portfolio construction technique GMO’s Asset Allocation team uses, emerging value is the best asset we have ever seen. Jeremy Grantham updates a behavioral P/E model to show that the stock market’s responses to major market factors over the years have been typically quite different from what one might expect from an “efficient” market. The market P/E level does not primarily reflect future prospects, but, contrary to theory, reflects current conditions. It weights variables that make investors feel comfortable, but that are not academically or economically correct.
Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb Investor Day Transcript (May 2017) (LINK)

Howard Marks on Bloomberg TV (video from earlier this week) (LINK)

Macro Voices podcast -- Raoul Pal & Julian Brigden: When will the dollar route end? (LINK)
Erik Townsend welcomes Julian Brigden and Raoul Pal back to MacroVoices. Erik, Julian & Raoul discuss their views on the US Dollar, the equity markets and the business cycle. They further explore the outlook on the bond bull market, demographics and the coming pension crisis.
Graham Allison talks with Charlie Rose (video) (LINK)
Related book: Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?
A Dinosaur So Well Preserved It Looks Like a Statue - by Ed Yong (LINK)