Tuesday, September 22, 2015


Solution Aversion: On the Relation Between Ideology and Motivated Disbelief (LINK) [Related article, HERE.]
There is often a curious distinction between what the scientific community and the general population believe to be true of dire scientific issues, and this skepticism tends to vary markedly across groups. For instance, in the case of climate change, Republicans (conservatives) are especially skeptical of the relevant science, particularly when they are compared with Democrats (liberals). What causes such radical group differences? We suggest, as have previous accounts, that this phenomenon is often motivated. However, the source of this motivation is not necessarily an aversion to the problem, per se, but an aversion to the solutions associated with the problem. This difference in underlying process holds important implications for understanding, predicting, and influencing motivated skepticism.
Sam Altman: Unit Economics (LINK)

Edge #449 Edge Master Class 2015: Philip Tetlock: A Short Course in Superforecasting (Class V) (LINK)

Hedge fund leader John Burbank bets on emerging market rout (LINK)
In an interview with the Financial Times, Mr Burbank said years of QE had caused a misallocation of capital across the world, while the end of QE last year triggered a dollar rally with consequences that were only now beginning to be realised. 
“The wrong people got the capital — emerging markets countries and corporates and a lot of cyclical companies like mining and energy, particularly shale companies — and this is now a major problem for the credit markets,” he said. 
“All of that turmoil around the world will come back and slow down capex and hiring and consumer buying in the US, and that will make the Fed realise they should be easing and not hiking,” he said. 
“I think we are on the precipice of a liquidation in emerging markets, and this feels the way that the fourth quarter of 1997 felt.”
Nassim Taleb's short video at the TOCICO Conference (video) [H/T ValueWalk] (LINK)
In this short video, Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness and Antifragile, introduces the concept of Antifragile to the Theory of Constraints International Conference held in Capetown South Africa from 6-9 Sep 2015. The theme of the conference was how to use Theory of Constraints to transform organizations and people from Fragile (harmed by volatility) to Robust (not harmed by volatility) to Antifragile (benefit from volatility).
Scott Adams on Tim Ferriss’ Podcast (LINK)
Related book: How to Fail at Almost Everything and Still Win Big
A Hubble image from the Large Magellanic Cloud (LINK)

Book of the day: The Rise and Fall of the Conglomerate Kings