Friday, August 3, 2012

Ray Dalio on monetary policy during deleveragings

As quoted by Jack Schwager in his book Hedge Fund Market Wizards:

“Unlike in recessions, when cutting interest rates and creating more money can rectify this imbalance, in deleveragings monetary policy is ineffective in creating credit. In other words, in recessions (when monetary policy is effective) the imbalance between the amount of money and the need for it to service debt can be rectified because interest rates can be cut enough to (1) ease debt service burdens, (2) stimulate economic activity because monthly debt service payments are high relative to incomes, and (3) produce a positive wealth effect; however, in deleveragings, this can’t happen. In deflationary depressions/ deleveragings, monetary policy is typically ineffective in creating credit because interest rates hit 0 percent and can’t be lowered further, so other, less-effective ways of increasing money are followed. Credit growth is difficult to stimulate because borrowers remain overindebted, making sensible lending impossible. In inflationary deleveragings, monetary policy is ineffective in creating credit because increased money growth goes into other currencies and inflation hedge assets because investors fear that their lending will be paid back with money of depreciated value.”


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