Wednesday, August 20, 2014


Robert Shiller article: The Mystery of Lofty Stock Market Elevations (LINK)

Robert Shiller on CNBC (video) (LINK)

Andrew Smithers: Long-term investing (LINK)

Preventing Another Corinthian (LINK)

John Kay: No universal law predicts the outcome of disruptive innovation (LINK)
Related book: The Innovator's Dilemma

After reading the Shiller article, I looked into Irving Fisher's 1930 book The Stock Market Crash — and After. It is interesting that the case he was making at the start of 1930 about the efficiency of the manufacturing sector is the same argument those today are using to justify current record profit margins, although instead of manufacturing like back then, it is technology and service-related companies today. An excerpt mentioning Fisher and his book from another book on the 1929 crash:
Irving Fisher was one of the country’s leading economists who made his fortune by inventing the Rolodex, known then as the Visible Index Card System. He invested a large amount of his money in stock, and even months into the crash, he continued to reassure investors that the market was secure. Unfortunately, he lost most of his fortune and reputation before the market began to recover in 1932. In 1930, he wrote The Stock Market Crash and After, discussing real growth in the manufacturing sector of the country. This may explain his continued investment in stocks and his optimism over the performance of the market. According to one source, what Fisher considered an increase in manufacturing was actually an increase in manufacturing efficiency (how much each worker could produce), due to improvements in technology manufacturing practices.