In recent years, I've gained the reputation of a "perma-bear." The reality is that I'm quite a reluctant bear, in that I would greatly prefer market conditions and prospective returns to be different from what they are. There's no question that conditions and evidence will change, unless the stock market is to be bound for the next decade in what would ultimately be a low-single-digit horserace with near-zero interest rates. For my part, I think the likely shocks are larger, and the potential opportunities will be greater than investors seem to contemplate here. Investors who are eager to lock in whatever prospective return might be available at present valuations - or have operationalized their investment discipline and tested its outcomes across market cycles over history - can certainly ignore the evidence that drives my own concerns. Even then, I expect that the perspectives here would augment the performance of that discipline. But for investors who have tested no discipline at all, and have little data to support the enthusiasm that surrounds them, what follows is a summary of my concerns.