On March 5th, our estimates of prospective return/risk conditions in the stock market fell to the most negative 2.5% of all historical observations (see Warning - A New Who's Who of Awful Times to Invest). On March 26th, those estimates fell to the most negative 0.5% of historical observations (see A False Sense of Security), and have remained in that range since that time. Market conditions have now been in this hostile set of conditions for 16 weeks. This situation might continue on to 20 weeks, or to 24 weeks. It might continue longer - though I doubt it. What we do know, however, is that when conditions have been similarly negative historically, the S&P 500 has plunged at an annualized rate of over 40%, distributed over some of the most awful outcomes in market history.