Tuesday, May 24, 2016

Jeff Bezos quote

"There [are] a couple of things that seem to be a pattern match for people who are right a lot. One is that people who are right a lot listen a lot. Another one is that people who are right a lot change their mind a lot.... People say that you should change your mind when the data changes; but I change my mind even when the data doesn't change, because I reanalyze the situation every day and sometimes I just come to a better analysis. And I think actually what I said yesterday I don't believe anymore.... You should not change your mind on your principles or your ideals or your vision. You should be stubborn on those things. But most of what we do every day is very tactical...and you should be very, very focused on the details and on changing your mind very frequently. And then finally--and this is the one that humans are the worst at--is [that] you have to have deep convictions, but then always work to disconfirm them. And you won't usually. Most of your convictions are going to be right for long periods of time, but you should always be saying 'Here's something I really, really believe is true, and then am I wrong about this? Am I wrong about this?'. And then look for ways to disconfirm. The natural human behavior is confirmation bias." -Jeff Bezos

[Source: From the video embedded HERE, starting around the 20:38 mark. The question and answer that discusses failure, starting around the 41:08 mark, is also exceptionally good.]