Monday, December 21, 2015


Edward Chancellor: ‘intelligent contrarians’ should follow the capital cycle (video) [H/T Tom] (LINK)
Related book: Capital Returns: Investing Through the Capital Cycle: A Money Manager's Reports 2002-15
Edward Chancellor: why gold miners are a better bet than conventional miners [Part 2 of the interview above] (video) (LINK)

Howard Marks' CNBC appearance from this past Friday (video) [H/T ValueWalk] (LINK)

Why does Charlie Munger not invest in high-technology businesses? (LINK)

Aswath Damodaran on The Tech Challenge for Value Investors (LINK)

Benedict Evans: 16 mobile theses (LINK)

Apple and Tim Cook on 60 Minutes (videos) (Part 1, Part 2)

EconTalk: Philip Tetlock on Superforecasting (LINK)
Related book: Superforecasting
Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters (LINK)

Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Reversing the Speculative Effect of QE Overnight (LINK)
In recent quarters, I’ve remained adamant that the immediate first step of the Federal Reserve in normalizing monetary policy should have been to reduce the size of its balance sheet. The Fed’s failure to prioritize that first step, in the apparent desire to maintain an aggrandized role in the U.S. financial markets, has significantly increased the risk of a collapse from the speculative extremes the Fed has created in recent years. Given the increasing risk-aversion evident in market internals, we doubt that even a reversal of last week’s rate hike would materially reduce that prospect. 
To see why, it’s important to understand how the Federal Reserve’s tools - open market purchases, interest on reserves, and reverse repurchases - actually work in affecting the economy and the behavior of speculative investors.
Meet Dole, the World’s Full-Stack Banana Company [H/T @paulg] (LINK)

The tiny creatures that flew to the Moon twice, and survived [H/T @JohnSHendricks] (LINK)