“This discussion shows the difficulty in predicting outcomes in an environment of concentrated success.” –Nassim Taleb, The Black Swan
- Does business operate in Extremestan or Mediocrastan?
o It is Difficult to predict [forecast] outcomes in an environment of concentrated success (Extremestan).
§ So be careful not to become too attached to a company valuation for a business that operates more in Extremestan and is thus more subject to randomness.