My last memo, in May, was on the subject of “Economic Reality.” Its goal was to describe the realities imposed by economics and point out the many ways in which governments and, especially, candidates for elected office ignore and promise to override them. Since then I have been struck by the way developments have moved economic reality to center stage. Of course, foremost among them has been the affirmative vote of June 23 on Brexit: whether the United Kingdom should leave the European Union.
I have no interest in writing a memo about Brexit itself. There’s a huge number of moving parts, too little past experience, too many varying opinions, and zero clarity on how the departure will be handled. There are many pundits out there telling us what the consequences of Brexit will be. The only thing I’m sure of is that most of them are wrong, and if I were to join their ranks, I’d probably be wrong, too.