Tuesday, August 6, 2013

Yale Professor Robert Shiller: Is this Housing Boom Going to Last? I Think Not

Found via ValueWalk. It sounds like Shiller overall still thinks housing is attractive, though prices are vulnerable and can't continue rising at this pace. He basically thinks house prices are about normal right now. He mentioned a bump up in prices in 2009-2010 (upwards of 20% in San Francisco) before prices collapsed again and said that could happen again, though he stressed that these things are hard to predict.

A good quote from the interview: “Buying a house is good for people in a certain situation in life. If you have a steady job, maybe you have a family with children, you expect to stay here a long time…I think it’s, right now, a good idea to buy a house and lock in for 30 years at this mortgage rate of 4.5%. Because that’s still low by historical standards. It’s still pretty good. But if you’re not in that category, and even if you are in that category, you shouldn’t reach for a huge house that you don’t need. And if you’re not in that category, you’re probably better off renting. It’s not like you have to get into this market because it’s soaring. There [are] uncertainties about this market…. And for many people, renting is just more practicable than buying a house.”

As a side note, Mark Hanson also had a new post a couple of days ago (HERE) and he seems pretty bearish on prices going forward.