Links

"GEICO to me is very much like Costco. And one of the reasons it’s succeeded is that they really feel a holy duty to have a wonderful product at a very low price. A lot of people talk that game, but very few have it just right down under the body and soul of the company. But GEICO does, and companies like that do tend to grind ahead over time.... It’s easy to talk the game, but living the game is something else. I mean, it’s against the human nature of many entrepreneurial people to try and get the price down and the service quality up all the time." --Charlie Munger (2014)

How to Hedge a Coronavirus ($) (LINK)

Universa, managed by Mark Spitznagel, a protégé of “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable” author Nassim Nicholas Taleb, managed a little over $4 billion in assets as of the end of 2018. Claude Bovet, founder of Lionscrest Capital and a long time investor in the fund, estimates that Universa’s tail risk hedging strategy, representing part of its capital, earned more than 1,000% in a matter of days.

Market Corrosion and the Catalyst of COVID-19 - by Frank K. Martin (LINK)

How Are You Different? - by Ian Cassel (LINK)

Death, Taxes, and Three Other Inevitable Things - by Morgan Housel (LINK)

Invest Like the Best Podcast: Jeff Lawson – How to Build a Platform (LINK)

Venture Stories Podcast: Jerry Neumann on Technological Revolutions, Picking Winners, and VC Returns (LINK)

The Knowledge Project Podcast: #77 Mike Maples: Living in the Future (LINK)

Second Order Risk - by Kevin Kelly (LINK)

Coronavirus Is No 1918 Pandemic (LINK)

What’s the Difference Between Dark Matter and Dark Energy? (LINK)

Links

Note to the hardcore Berkshire and investing readers: Warren Buffett's letter to shareholders will be released on Saturday and, as we've done for the past few years, Chris Bloomstran's annual letter will also be released here on the blog tomorrow. Chris was hoping to keep things much shorter than the 112-pager from last year, but it's looking like it'll come in a bit longer than that for this year. So make sure your printer is full of paper and ink, and check back here during the second half of the day tomorrow for the Semper Augustus Investments Group 2019 Annual Letter. 

***

"Conservatism may cause investors to refrain from making some investments that in hindsight would have been successful, but it will also prevent some sizable losses that would ensue from adopting less conservative business valuations." --Seth Klarman

The Best Thing You Can Do for Your Work Is Take a Walk - by Ryan Holiday (LINK)

The Knowledge Project Podcast: #76 Frank Stephenson: Pushing the Limits of Innovation (LINK)

Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom Podcast: #32: Christopher Cole On Appreciating Risk (LINK)

Walter Isaacson reviews the book Franklin & Washington: The Founding Partnership by Edward J. Larson (LINK)

How often do severe solar storms pummel the Earth? - by Phil Plait (LINK)

A Huge Discovery in the World of Viruses - by Ed Yong (LINK)

What's Next for COVID-19? [H/T @Atul_Gawande] (LINK)

Containment of the coronavirus would make an enormous difference to health around the world. Is it still possible?

Links

My year-end letter at Sorfis is in the proofreading stage. If you are interested in receiving it as soon as it is released next week, you can sign up on the website HERE. 

*********

Greenlight Q4 2019 Letter (LINK)

Fundsmith Annual Letter (LINK)

Apollo Asia Fund: the manager's report for 4Q19 (LINK)

Wealth Is What You Don’t Spend - by Morgan Housel (LINK)

Every Company Will Be a Fintech Company (LINK)

Paul Tudor Jones on CNBC (video) (LINK)

Ray Dalio on CNBC (video) (LINK)

Brian Moynihan on CNBC (video) (LINK)

Stephen Schwarzman on CNBC (video) (LINK)

David Rubenstein on CNBC (video) (LINK)

Carlos Brito on CNBC (video) (LINK)

Invest Like the Best Podcast: Rebecca Kaden – Thesis Driven Investing (LINK)

The James Altucher Show: 531 - Jocko Willink (LINK)

Related book: Leadership Strategy and Tactics: Field Manual

The Knowledge Project Podcast: #74 Jeff Hunter: Embracing Confusion (LINK)

Finding the One Decision That Removes 100 Decisions (or, Why I’m Reading No New Books in 2020) - by Tim Ferriss (LINK)

Hey, maybe the dinosaur-killer asteroid really did act alone! (LINK)

Links

"Leverage is what causes people trouble in this world. So you never want to be in a position where somebody can pull the rug out from under you. And you also never want to be emotionally in a position where you pull the rug out from under yourself. You don’t want to have other people force you to sell and you don’t want to let your own fears or emotions to cause you to sell at the wrong time." --Warren Buffett (2009)

TABLE STAKES: Unblock Your Business [adventur.es] (LINK)

The End of the Beginning - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

Real Conversations: Jim Chanos, Founder & Managing Partner, Kynikos Associates (video, filmed Nov. 21, 2019) (LINK)

SoftBank shafts startups (LINK)

SoftBank Vision Fund has walked away from investing in several startups, months after submitting term sheets worth hundreds of millions of dollars and promising that closing delays were only temporary.

The Meb Faber Show (podcast): The Best Investment Writing Volume 3: Selected Writing from Prominent Investors and Authors [all 17 chapters; over 5 hours] (LINK)

Invest Like the Best: Peter Buffett – Finding Your Note (LINK)

The Knowledge Project Podcast: #73 Steven Strogatz: Exploring Curiosities (LINK)

STEM-Talk Podcast: 100: Peter Attia gives an update on his views regarding longevity and health span (LINK)

What I Learned in Avalanche School [H/T @pcordway] (LINK)

What Should You Work On? - by David Perell (LINK)

Links

"There's no such thing as a value company. Price is all that matters. At some price, an asset is a buy, at another it's a hold, and at another it's a sell." --Seth Klarman

Buffett Lieutenant to Head Berkshire Hathaway’s Geico Insurance Unit ($) (LINK)

Todd Combs to succeed Bill Roberts, who will retire at the end of 2020

In his 2019 Annual Book Review [Chinese], Li Lu recommends The Other Half of Macroeconomics and the Fate of Globalization. [H/T @mastersinvest] 

Is China Beating America to AI Supremacy? - by Graham Allison (LINK)

Amazon Advertising, Explained (LINK)

Banks Own Thousands of Railcars but Don't Know What to Do With Them ($) (LINK)

A Sea Change in Fuel Prices Is Imminent ($) (LINK)

January’s deadline to use cleaner marine fuel could ripple through the global fuel market on land and sea

Martin Stopford at the 2019 Hong Kong Maritime Forum - Where We Are in the Shipping Cycle Today (video) (LINK)

Related book: Maritime Economics - by Martin Stopford

Hyman Minsky explains financial fragility in his own words (November 1987 video) [H/T Ritholtz] (LINK)

We’ve just had the best decade in human history. Seriously - by Matt Ridley (LINK)

Grant’s Current Yield Podcast: Winter reading (LINK)

Related book: Great Society: A New History - by Amity Shlaes

Wall Street Unplugged Podcast: The best value ideas for 2020 [with Jonathan Boyar] (LINK)

The Tim Ferriss Show (podcast): #403: Tony Fadell — On Building the iPod, iPhone, Nest, and a Life of Curiosity (LINK)

The Knowledge Project Podcast: #72 Neil Pasricha: Happy Habits (LINK)

How a 35,000-Year-Old Frozen Woolly Mammoth Tastes (LINK)

Why You Never Have Time - by Derek Thompson (LINK)

The Two Kinds of Moderate - by Paul Graham (LINK)

Fashionable Problems - by Paul Graham (LINK)

Links

"Many people believe that investors must make the macro decision to be either bullish or bearish. Our preference is to be agnostic, objectively finding absolute bargains, and in their absence, holding cash. In short, we are neither bullish nor bearish. We are value-ish." --Seth Klarman

Peter Lynch: How to Find Growth Opportunities in Today’s Stock Market (LINK) ["My best stocks have been ones where I didn’t have to worry about the big picture."]

Fidelity’s Peter Lynch: Do your research, don’t ‘play’ the market (video) [H/T Linc] (LINK)

Value Investing with Legends Podcast: Bruce Greenwald - Staying on the Right Side of the Trade (LINK)

Masters of Scale with Reid Hoffman (podcast): Bill Gates — The biggest success story you haven’t heard (LINK)

Fall 2019 Exhibit | Finding the Edge: The Work and Insights of Edward O. Thorp (video) (LINK)

Druckenmiller on 2020 Outlook, Monetary Policy, U.S. Election (video) (LINK)

All Asset All Access – Insights from Research Affiliates (LINK)

Could It Be That a Minsky “Moment” Lurks in the Shadows? - by Frank K. Martin (LINK)

11 Lessons from the Success of Disney+ - by Matthew Ball (LINK)

SoftBank Vision Fund Employees Depict a Culture of Recklessness (LINK)

Key Countries Aren’t Ready for Historic Ship-Fuel Switch (LINK)

The Market Huddle Podcast: Christmas with Kuppy (LINK)

Acquired Podcast: Convoy (with CEO Dan Lewis) (LINK)

The Disruptive Voice Podcast: Choosing College: Bob Moesta and Michael Horn on Why We Hire Education (LINK)

Doctors Prescribe More of a Drug If They Receive Money from a Pharma Company Tied to It (LINK)

Farnam Street’s 2019 Annual Letter to Readers (LINK)

The Infinite Game - by Blas Moros (LINK)

I wrote an essay I wish I had been given when I graduated from college, retired from tennis, and began the transition from student-athlete to the “real world.” 

Through this essay, I hope to provide some awareness and tools, namely around self-reflection and self-awareness, how to think about how to spend your time, what to look for in a job, and the importance of coaches and mentors. 

While written through the lens of a student-athlete, hopefully some of these principles and tools apply to a broader audience.

Links

The Bus Ticket Theory of Genius - by Paul Graham (LINK)

It’s Slow Going, but Stuff Like Wheat and Oil Can Spice Up Your Returns - by Jason Zweig ($) (LINK)

The best time to get interested in an investing strategy is when its performance is at its worst. By that standard, commodities are starting to look intriguing.

Everyone Gets Paid in CBS-Viacom Except Shareholders [H/T @JohnHuber72] (LINK)

Health Care Without (much) Government - by Russ Roberts (LINK)

How to Reverse Engineer Biology (LINK)

Full Disclosure Podcast: The Overachieving Underwriter [H/T @rationalwalk] (LINK)

Markel Corp vice chairman Steve Markel on the insurer and investment shop as it approaches its 90th year in business. Worth $15 million when its shares debuted on Wall Street in 1986, Markel Corp is now a Fortune 500 member in 18 countries that is valued at more than $16 billion.

Grant’s Current Yield Podcast: It’s a gusher (LINK)

Exponent Podcast: 178 — More Ergonomic (LINK)

The Knowledge Project Podcast -- Scott Adams: Avoiding Loserthink (LINK)

One Man's Wild Quest to Reach the Bottom of Every Ocean [H/T @MebFaber] (LINK)

Links

"Charlie and I spend a lot of time thinking about things that could hit us out of the blue that other people don’t include in their thinking. And we may miss some opportunities because of that, but we feel it’s essential when managing other people’s money or, for that matter, managing our own money." --Warren Buffett (2008)

Common Plots of Economic History - by Morgan Housel (LINK)

The Google Squeeze - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

Oaktree Insights: A Deeper Dive into Structured Credit (LINK)

The Knowledge Project Podcast: What It Takes with Stephen Schwarzman (LINK)

Related book: What It Takes: Lessons in the Pursuit of Excellence

Invest Like the Best Podcast: Daniel Ek – The Future of Audio (LINK)

Business Casual Podcast -- Risk it all: Matt Ball dissects the streaming wars (LINK)

Signaling: The Language Peacocks, Gazelles, and Humans All Speak (LINK)

How the Nile River Has Stayed In One Place for 30 Million Years (LINK)

Links

"Wealth is not his that has it, but his that enjoys it." --Benjamin Franklin

Jeff Bezos’s Master Plan (LINK)

Fall 2019 issue of Graham & Doddsville (LINK)

The Heilbrunn Center's Schloss Archive is also worth going back and checking out periodically (LINK)

The Knowledge Project Podcast: #68 Daniel Kahneman: Putting Your Intuition on Ice (LINK)

Exponent Podcast: 175 — The Abyss Stares Back (LINK)

The Next Big Idea Podcast: Malcolm Gladwell and David Epstein on the Keys to Success (LINK)

Related book: Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World

Links

Note to readers: I'm traveling with limited internet access over the next week or two, so posting will probably be less frequent than normal.

***

"We think that when we make a decision, there ought to be such a margin of safety that it ought to be so attractive that you don’t have to carry it out to three decimal places." --Warren Buffett (1995)

Beachheads and Obstacles - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

Bubble Yet? (The Brooklyn Investor blog) (LINK)

The Absolute Return Letter - October 2019: How to invest in a low growth world (Part 1 of 2) (LINK)

Michael Bloomberg’s Answer to the U.N. General Assembly - by Evan Osnos (LINK)

Some takeaways from The Autobiography of Benjamin Franklin (LINK)

Kyle Bass: Hong Kong Protests are Chinese Regime’s “Worst Nightmare” in US China Trade War (video) (LINK)

Odd Lots Podcast: How Financial Repression in China Helped Cause the Trade War (LINK)

Hidden Forces Podcast: Financial Fault Lines, Central Banks, and the Law of Unintended Consequences | William White (LINK)

Masters in Business Podcast: Brian Grazer Discusses Imagine Entertainment (LINK)

The James Altucher Show (podcast): 493 -- Frank Abagnale (LINK)

What Got You There Podcast: #158 Brent Beshore (LINK)

The Knowledge Project Podcast -- Jim Collins: Keeping the Flywheel in Motion (LINK)

Externalities: Why We Can Never Do “One Thing” (LINK)

The Messy World of Crime-Solving Genealogists - by Sarah Zhang (LINK)

Links

"What we really want to do is buy a business that’s a great business, which means that business is going to earn a high return on capital employed for a very long period of time, and where we think the management will treat us right. We don’t have to mark those down a lot when we find those factors. We’d love to find them when they’re selling at 40 cents on the dollar but we will buy those as much closer to a dollar on the dollar. We don’t like to pay a dollar on the dollar, but we’ll pay something close." --Warren Buffett (2007)

The Earnings Mirage: Why Corporate Profits are Overstated and What It Means for Investors (LINK)

The P/E Ratio: A User’s Manual [H/T @justvalue2] (LINK)

Availability-Misweighing Tendency (LINK)

Invest Like the Best Podcast: Bill Gurley – All Things Business and Investing (LINK)

The Knowledge Project Podcast: When Good Intentions Go Bad [with Jonathan Haidt] (LINK)

V > Λ: The Inverted Hierarchy (LINK)

The Stoic Magazine (Volume 1, Issue 7, July 2019) (LINK)

"This is the secret of cheerfulness—not depending on someone's help or expecting them to provide us tranquillity." --Marcus Aurelius

Links

"Investing is really not complicated. I mean, the basic framework for it is simple. Now, you have to work at it some to find the best pockets of undervaluation.... But you didn’t have to have a high IQ—you didn’t have to have lots of investment smarts to buy junk bonds in 2002 or even to do some of the stuff that was available when LTCM got in trouble. You really just had to have the courage of your convictions. You had to have the willingness to do something when everybody else was petrified. But that was true in 1974 when we were buying stocks at very, very, very low multiples of earnings. It wasn’t that anybody didn’t know that they were cheap. They were just paralyzed for one reason or another." --Warren Buffett (2006)

"When you have a huge convulsion...you get a lot of weird behavior.... And if you can be wise when everybody else is going crazy, sure, there will still be opportunities. But that may give you long, dull stretches if that’s your strategy." --Charlie Munger (2006)

Stay in the Game (LINK)

Buy and Hold: Simple, NOT Easy - by Vishal Khandelwal (LINK)

While Studying Bonds, Why Credit Rating Analysts Should Keep an Eye on the Stock Price (LINK)

Invest Like the Best Podcast: Chuck Akre – The Three-Legged Stool (LINK)

To Hack or Not To Hack - by Peter Zeihan (LINK)

The Knowledge Project Podcast: Leading Above the Line (LINK)

Revisiting Benjamin Franklin and Socrates (LINK)

"The investor trying to buy right and hold on could buy as many different stocks as appealed to him. The difference is not in the focussing of investment money but in the intent of the buyer. The trader believes that in a swift-moving, rapidly changing world, with visibility always limited, he can make a series of commitments with better chance of success than trying to decide which companies will do well for the next twenty years. The investor dedicated to buying right and holding on picks managements, products, and processes he thinks able to cope with the unforeseeable as it hoves into view. " --Thomas Phelps (via 100 to 1 in the Stock Market)

Links

"We don’t like having excess cash around. We like even less doing dumb deals because we do them forever. I mean, if we make a dumb deal, it just sits there. We don’t resell it three months later by having an IPO of it or something of the sort. So you’re right to say that we should be very uncomfortable about the fact that we’ve got the cash. But it’s also important that we not be so uncomfortable that we go out and do something just to be doing something.... The goal of that cash is to be translated into permanent earning power over time." --Warren Buffett (2006) 

Jeff Bezos: Big Things Start Small (LINK)

Think Before You Fish for Bargains in Chinese Stocks - by Jason Zweig ($) (LINK)

Kyle Bass: Trouble in Hong Kong- Part Deux (LINK) [Part 1 was HERE.]

Ominous Outlook for Autos & the Economy (w/ Danielle DiMartino-Booth & Daniel Ruiz) [video filmed April 11, 2019] (LINK)

David Epstein went on the EconTalk podcast as well as the Invest Like the Best podcast to discuss his new book, Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World (released today).

Venture Stories Podcast: Mental Models with Scott Page (LINK)

Related book: The Model Thinker

The Knowledge Project Podcast: Following Intellectual Curiosity (with Entrepreneur and Investor Thomas Tull) (LINK)

Acquired Podcast: The Electronic Arts IPO (with Trip Hawkins) (LINK)

HBR IdeaCast: 684: Understanding the Space Economy (LINK)

The Peter Attia Drive Podcast: #55 - Jocko Willink (Part I of II) (LINK)

Links

"There are things in life that you don’t have to make a decision on and that are too hard.... One of the interesting things about investment is that there’s no degree of difficulty factor.... We get paid, not for jumping over 7-foot bars, but for stepping over 1-foot bars. And the biggest thing we have to do is decide which ones are the 1-foot bars and which ones are the 7-foot bars so when we go to step we don’t bump into the bar. And that is something that I think we’re reasonably good at. Now maybe we cast out too many things as being too hard and thereby narrow our universe. But I’d rather have the universe be interpreted as being a little smaller than it really is, than being interpreted as larger than it is." --Warren Buffett (2005) 

Connor Leonard's presentation to the Value Investing Club at Google (LINK)

Spring 2019 issue of Graham & Doddsville (LINK)

2019 Value Investing Conference | Keynote Speaker: Kiril Sokoloff (video) (LINK)

2019 Value Investing Conference | Keynote Speaker: Lawrence A. Cunningham (video) (LINK)

Gates’s Law: How Progress Compounds and Why It Matters (LINK)

A critical step to reduce climate change - by Bill Gates (LINK)

Against the Rules with Michael Lewis (podcast): The Magic Shoebox (LINK)

Related book: Flash Boys

O Behave Podcast: Rory discusses Alchemy & The Surprising Power Of Ideas That Don’t Make Sense (LINK)

Related book: Alchemy: The Dark Art and Curious Science of Creating Magic in Brands, Business, and Life - by Rory Sutherland 

The Knowledge Project Podcast: Popping the Filter Bubble (with DuckDuckGo CEO, Gabriel Weinberg) (LINK)

A Truly Remarkable Spider - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Today's Audible Daily Deal ($3.95) is one I've seen recommended by at least one science writer: The Rise and Fall of the Dinosaurs

Links

"Charlie and I spend no time thinking or talking about what the stock market is going to do, because we don’t know. We do know, sometimes, that we’re getting very good value for our money when we buy some stocks or some bonds. But we are not operating on the basis of any kind of macro forecast about stocks. And there’s always a list of reasons...why the country will have problems tomorrow. But there’s always a list of opportunities which don’t get mentioned quite as often." --Warren Buffett (2005)

Warren Buffett Backs Occidental’s Bid for Anadarko with $10 Billion Pledge (LINK)

Microsoft, Slack, Zoom, and the SaaS Opportunity - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

Videos from the 2018 Prime Quadrant Conference with Joel Greenblatt, Nassim Taleb, Sam Zell, and Steve Eisman  [H/T ValueWalk]

Against the Rules with Michael Lewis (podcast): The Neutral (LINK)

Sam Harris speaks with Shane Parrish about some of the mental models that should guide our thinking and behavior (podcast) (LINK)

Related audiobook: The Great Mental Models: General Thinking Concepts

Rationally Speaking Podcast: Tyler Cowen on “Defending big business against its critics” (LINK)

Related book: Big Business: A Love Letter to an American Anti-Hero

A brief review of the book Fiber (LINK)

Meet the virus hunters - by Bill Gates (LINK)

Links

"The history of much of which we don’t like in modern corporate capitalism comes from an unreasonable expectation, communicated from headquarters, that [corporate] earnings have to go up with no volatility and great regularity. That kind of an expectation from headquarters is not just the kissing cousin of evil. It’s the blood brother of evil. And we just don’t need that blood brother in our headquarters." --Charlie Munger (2005)

 "Businesses do not meet expectations quarter after quarter and year after year. It just isn’t in the nature of running businesses. And, in our view, people that predict precisely what the future will be are either kidding investors, or they’re kidding themselves, or they’re kidding both. Charlie and I have been around the culture, sometimes on the board, where the ego of the CEO became very involved in meeting predictions which were impossible, really, over time. And everybody in the organization knew, because they were very public about it, what these predictions were and they knew that their CEO was going to look bad if they weren’t met. And that can lead to a lot of bad things." --Warren Buffett (2005)

Michael Mauboussin: Looking for Easy Games in Bonds (LINK)

A compilation of Q1 investor letters [H/T @MineSafety] (LINK)

CNBC’s interview with ValueAct’s Jeff Ubben (video) (LINK)

Invest Like the Best Podcast: Katherine Collins – Impact and ESG Investing (LINK)

Against the Rules with Michael Lewis (podcast): The Alex Kogan Experience (LINK)

WorkLife with Adam Grant (podcast): Bouncing Back from Rejection (LINK)

The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish (podcast): Catalyzing Success (LINK)

Business Wars Podcast: Ferrari vs. Lamborghini (Part 1, Part 2)

Edge #535: Machines Like Me - A Talk By Ian McEwan (LINK)

The world’s deadliest shapeshifter - by Bill Gates (LINK)

Exploding Aphids Plaster Holes in Their Home With Bodily Fluids - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Links

Released today: The Great Mental Models: General Thinking Concepts

A Regulatory Framework for the Internet - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

Frackers, Chasing Fast Oil Output, Are on a Treadmill ($) (LINK)

Why is a good management so important? A talk with Robert Vinall on his approach (video) (LINK)

Against the Rules with Michael Lewis (podcast): The Seven Minute Rule (LINK)

The Tim Ferriss Show: Eric Schmidt — Lessons from a Trillion-Dollar Coach (LINK)

WorkLife with Adam Grant (podcast): How to Remember Anything (LINK)

Venture Stories Podcast: Tyler Cowen On His New Book: “Big Business: A Love Letter To An American Anti-Hero” (LINK)

Invest Like the Best Podcast: Geoffrey Batt – The Nature of Transformational Returns (LINK)

The Investing City Podcast: Portfolio Manager, Gautam Baid: Joyful Compounding (LINK)

Related book: The Joys of Compounding

Links

Seth Klarman: A Bleak Warning on Global Division and Debt (LINK) [I haven't seen Klarman's letter yet, but if anyone happens to have a copy they'd be willing to share, it would be greatly appreciated (valueinvestingworld@gmail.com).]

CNBC's Davos interviews with Ray Dalio, David Rubenstein, Steve Schwarzman, Jeff Ubben, and Marc Benioff.

Dalio, Weber on Rethinking Global Financial Risk: Davos Panel (video) (LINK)

Survival is the Ultimate Performance Measure of a Business - by Ian Cassel (LINK)

Invest Like the Best Podcast: Eugene Wei – Tech, Media, and Culture (LINK)

The Knowledge Project Podcat: Shane Parrish chats with Josh Wolfe (LINK)

Netflix Flexes - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

Yuval Noah Harari: Why We Dominate the Earth (LINK)

Sir David Attenborough discusses his life's work at Davos 2019 (video) (LINK)

Spectacular 3D simulation of a massive solar flare… from start to finish (LINK)

Links

"Post-bubble periods, I think, depending on how big the bubble is and how many were participating in it....can produce fallout that not everyone will be terribly good at predicting." --Warren Buffett (2002 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting)

Surviving the Investing Game - by Vishal Khandelwal (LINK)

CNBC's full interview with Paul Tudor Jones (LINK)

Kyle Bass on Yahoo Finance (video) (LINK)

‘This Too Shall End’: Loews CEO Sees Oil Back at $75 in Two Years (video) (LINK)

Does It Matter Where You Go to College? - by Derek Thompson (LINK)

Invest Like the Best Podcast: Bryan Krug – High Yield Credit Investing (LINK)

Adam Robinson chats with Shane Parrish on the The Knowledge Project Podcast (Part 1) (LINK)

Sam Altman on the Recode Decode Podcast (LINK)

This Single Idea Will Make You More Resilient And Successful - by Ryan Holiday (LINK)

City Frogs Are the Sexiest Frogs - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Book of the day [H/T Will]: Wealth and Families: Lessons from My Life Journey - by Howard Stevenson 

Links

How an Intelligence Expert Helps Wall Street Mavens Think Smarter (LINK)

Defensive Decision Making: What IS Best v. What LOOKS Best (LINK)

Balance Is Underrated - by Sean Iddings (LINK)

How One Family Built $8 Billion Startup Far From Silicon Valley (LINK)

The Experience Economy - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

Inside John Malone’s World ($ Barron's) (LINK)

Productivity Growth II: Can the U.S. Economy Stay Airborne Without It? - by Frank Martin (LINK)

Marathon's Richards Has a Recession Warning for Overleveraged Companies (video) [H/T @valueshadow] (LINK)

Has the “Everything Bubble” begun to deflate everything? (LINK)

Be Afraid of Economic ‘Bigness.’ Be Very Afraid. - by Tim Wu (LINK)

Related book (just released): The Curse of Bigness: Antitrust in the New Gilded Age

Ray Dalio on the Masters in Business podcast (LINK)

Ray Dalio reflects on today’s great powers and how they will handle their deep-seated differences (LINK)

Inside Bill Browder’s War Against Putin (LINK)

The next great war - by Graham Allison (LINK)