Links

"As I've gotten older...I could not help but notice the effect on people of the stories they told about themselves. If you listen to people—if you just sit and listen—you'll find that there are patterns in the way they talk about themselves. There's the kind of person who's always the victim in any story that they tell—always on the receiving end of some injustice. There's the person who's always kind of the hero in every story they tell. The smart person—they deliver the clever put-down. There are lots of versions of this. And you gotta be very careful about how you tell these stories because it starts to become you. You are, in the way you craft your narrative, kind of crafting your character. And so, I did at some point decide: I am going to adopt self-consciously as my narrative that I'm the happiest person anybody knows. And it is amazing how happy-inducing it is." --Michael Lewis [Source]

The Tim Ferriss Show (podcast): #427: Michael Lewis on the Crafts of Writing, Friendship, Coaching, Happiness, and More (LINK)

Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting Transcript 2020 (LINK)

The Investor’s Podcast: TIP295: Mohnish Pabrai on Value Investing & Philanthropy (LINK)

Masters in Business Podcast: Jim Chanos on Financial Fraud (LINK)

Finding Your Balance in a Topsy-Turvy Market - by Jason Zweig ($) (LINK)

Beyond coronavirus: The road ahead for the automotive aftermarke [H/T @chrispavese] (LINK)

How Greenwich Republicans Learned to Love Trump - by Evan Osnos (LINK)

The iconic brands that could disappear because of coronavirus (LINK)

Price Gouging Could Actually Fix Our Face Mask Shortage - by Russ Roberts (LINK)

Old Drugs May Find a New Purpose: Fighting the Coronavirus (LINK)

Why Weren’t We Ready for the Coronavirus? - by David Quammen (LINK)

Making Sense with Sam Harris (podcast): #201 [with Yuval Noah Harari] (LINK)

Hope, Through History Podcast: Episode 1 | FDR and The Great Depression (LINK)

Hope, Through History Podcast: Episode 2 | Winston Churchill and World War II (LINK)

The Man Who Thought Too Fast (LINK)

Book of the day (recommended by Michael Lewis): The Long Ships

Links

What Benjamin Graham Would Tell You to Do Now: Look in the Mirror - Jason Zweig ($) (LINK)

The great investors and extreme volatility (LINK)

Different Kinds of Decline - by Morgan Housel (LINK)

Why Democracy Is on the Decline in the United States - by Evan Osnos (LINK)

Invest Like the Best Podcast: Peter Zeihan - Dis-United Nations (LINK)

Related book: Disunited Nations

Coronavirus: The Real Risks and Human Biases behind the Panic - by Mark Manson (LINK)

Coronavirus is the wolf on the loose - by Matt Ridley (LINK)

Rory gets a good read (LINK)

Books helped fuel last year’s PLAYERS win and now Rory McIlroy has moved on to other titles in preparation for his title defense

Links

"In the world of modern finance, a love of numbers has replaced a desire for critical thinking. As long as something has a number attached to it, then it is taken as gospel truth. Research shows that people are often fooled by the use of pseudoscience. Simply making things sound complex makes people believe them more! Risk managers, analysts and consultants are all guilty of using pseudoscience to promote an illusion of safety. We all need to be on our guard against the artificial deployment of meaningless numbers. Critical thinking and scepticism are the most unrated (and scarce) tools in our world." --James Montier ("Mind Matters," April 29, 2008)

How to respond to COVID-19 - by Bill Gates (LINK)

The Great Buenos Aires Bank Heist [H/T Linc] (LINK)

Gotta Go Fast: Why Gaming IP Is Finally Taking Off in Film/TV - by Matthew Ball (LINK)

Exponent Podcast: 182 — Scale Scale Scale (LINK)

The Disruptive Voice Podcast: 48. Disrupting Healthcare with Dr. Mahek Shah (LINK)

Grant’s Current Yield Podcast: The Empire Strikes Out (LINK)

Know Your Risk Radio (podcast): Raoul Pal (LINK)

The Coronavirus and How Political Spin Has Worsened Epidemics - by Evan Osnos (LINK)

Freeman Dyson, Visionary Technologist, Is Dead at 96 (LINK)

Related previous link (other links and books included): Freeman Dyson on Living Through Four Revolutions (2011 lecture)

"I don't particularly care [if the things I'm doing] are important or not. I'm not driven by a passion to dig out the deep secrets of nature. I'm much more interested just in exercising my skills as best I can and enjoying life." --Freeman Dyson

Links

"Another thing to avoid is extremely intense ideology because it cabbages up one's mind. You see a lot of it in the worst of the TV preachers. They have different, intense, inconsistent ideas about technical theology, and a lot of them have minds reduced to cabbage. And that can happen with political ideology. And if you're young, it's particularly easy to drift into intense and foolish political ideology and never get out. When you announce that you're a loyal member of some cult-like group and you start shouting out the orthodox ideology, what you're doing is pounding it in, pounding it in, pounding it in. You're ruining your mind, sometimes with startling speed. So you want to be very careful with intense ideology. It presents a big danger for the only mind you're ever going to have." --Charlie Munger (Poor Charlie's Almanack, Talk Ten: USC Gould School of Law Commencement Address)

First, Do No Harm - by Ben Thompson (LINK) [Thompson was also on a panel for a Public Workshop on Venture Capital and Antitrust: VIDEO.]

Hidden Forces Podcast: The Decline of Active Management, the Rise of Market Nihilism, & the Fall of the Roman Republic | Mike Green (LINK)

Conversations with Tyler (podcast): Tim Harford on Persuasion and Popular Economics (LINK)

Ryan Holiday interviews Tim Ferriss (podcast) (LINK)

Ezra Klein with Malcolm Gladwell: Why We’re Polarized (video) (LINK)

China’s “Iron House”: Struggling Over Silence in the Coronavirus Epidemic - by Evan Osnos (LINK)

Links

"Certainly opportunity cost has been much more in the forefront of mind in the last 18 months. When things are moving very fast, when both prices are moving, and in certain cases, intrinsic business value is moving at a pace that’s far greater than we’ve seen for a long time, it means that in terms of calibrating A versus B, versus C, it’s tougher. It’s more interesting. It’s more challenging. And it can be way more profitable, too. But it’s a different task then when everything was moving at a more leisurely pace." --Warren Buffett (2009)

The Illusory Truth Effect: Why We Believe Fake News, Conspiracy Theories and Propaganda (LINK)

Facebook’s Platform Opportunity - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

AQR Says to Get Sober About Future Returns (LINK)

How Private Equity Buried Payless (LINK)

The Long Buy - by Fred Wilson (LINK)

Is CPG Doomed? (LINK)

The Absolute Return Letter, February 2020: Five Lessons from History (LINK)

Mutual Fund Observer, February 2020 (LINK)

Small Caps: Finding Great Companies (video/podcast, from about 3 years ago) (LINK)

The Acquirers Podcast: Private Value: Jonathan Boyar (LINK)

EconTalk (podcast): Robert Shiller on Narrative Economics (LINK)

Related book: Narrative Economics

The Peter Attia Drive (podcast): #91 – Eric Topol, M.D.: Can AI empower physicians and revolutionize patient care? (LINK)

11 Reasons Not to Become Famous (or “A Few Lessons Learned Since 2007”) - by Tim Ferriss (LINK)

You Can Vote. But You Can’t Choose What Is True. - by Yuval Noah Harari ($) (LINK)

Qassem Suleimani and How Nations Decide to Kill - by Adam Entous and Evan Osnos (LINK)

The New Coronavirus Is a Truly Modern Epidemic - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Book of the day (recommended by Christopher Davis): Americana: A 400-Year History of American Capitalism

Links

"Accepting that we cannot predict the future⁠—i.e., that there will always be unexpected and highly consequential events⁠—is the first step in becoming less fragile and more adaptable. People should be highly skeptical of anyone's, including their own, ability to predict the future, and instead pursue strategies that can survive whatever may occur." --Seth Klarman (Source)

The Art of (Not) Selling [Akre Capital Management] (LINK)

The Future of America’s Contest with China - by Evan Osnos (LINK)

7 Reasons Why Video Gaming Will Take Over - by Matthew Ball (LINK)

⁠Are You Undervaluing Your Customers? [H/T @BrentBeshore] (LINK)

Amazon Has Long Ruled the Cloud. Now It Must Fend Off Rivals. ($) (LINK)

In Carlos Ghosn’s Escape, Plotters Exploited an Airport Security Hole ($) (LINK)

Railroads are cutting workers at a pace not seen since the Great Recession [H/T Linc] (LINK)

What Will Happen In The 2020s - by Fred Wilson (LINK)

“What is Happening to US Shale Production?” [H/T Linc] (LINK)

The Acquirers Podcast: Gregory Zuckerman on Renaissance / Rentech (LINK)

Capital Allocators Podcast: Gregory Zuckerman – Decoding Renaissance Medallion (LINK)

Related book: The Man Who Solved the Market: How Jim Simons Launched the Quant Revolution

EconTalk (podcast): Melanie Mitchell on Artificial Intelligence (LINK)

Hidden Forces Podcast: Range: Why Generalists Triumph in Today’s Specialized World | David Epstein (LINK)

Related book: Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World

Odd Lots Podcast: Why So Many Emerging Markets Are Blowing Up Right Now (LINK)

OPIS Crash Course Podcast: IMO 2020 Is Here! Refinery Impacts and Oil Price Analysis (LINK)

Sean "Diddy" Combs Has A Next-Level Conversation W/ Mentor Ray Dalio (video) [H/T Linc] (LINK)

***

Chart of the day (with description), via John Hussman's "One Tier and Rubble Down Below":

As I’ve noted before, individual price/revenue ratios aren’t clear indications of value in and of themselves. Typically, low ratio stocks include retail, grocery, and banking companies, while high ratio stocks include technology and emerging growth companies. What’s more important is the comparison of each group with its own norms, as well as dispersion across the behavior of different groups. 

 

Presently, it’s clear that except for the most expensive 10% of stocks, every other decile is at valuations 10-50% more extreme than those observed at the 2000 market peak.

Links

"We really like things that you don’t have to carry out to three decimal places, you know. If you have to carry it out to three decimal places, it’s not a good idea.... It’s like if somebody walked in the door here and they weighed somewhere between 300 and 350 pounds. I might not know how much they weigh, but I would know they were fat. That’s all I’m looking for, is something that’s financially fat." --Warren Buffett (2008)

Jamie Dimon on "60 Minutes" (video) (LINK)

Chuck Akre and John Neff of Akre Capital Management on WealthTrack (video) (LINK)

Ironing Out an Investing Mystery - by Jason Zweig ($) (LINK)

‘Earnings management’ has become even more widespread in emerging markets than in developed markets like the U.S.

Pensions Venture Into Risky Corners of the Market in Hunt for Returns ($) (LINK)

Wise fiscal policy is not about helicopter money - by Claudio Borio (LINK)

The new dot com bubble is here: it’s called online advertising (LINK)

What is the endgame for Disney+? (LINK)

EconTalk Podcast: Rory Sutherland on Alchemy (LINK)

Related book: Alchemy: The Dark Art and Curious Science of Creating Magic in Brands, Business, and Life 

Exponent Podcast: 177 — Principle Stacks (LINK)

Odd Lots Podcast: Why The Repo Markets Went Crazy, And Why December Could Be Even Worse (LINK)

Grant’s Current Yield Podcast: Let the analytics department pitch to Drumbowski (LINK)

Short Wave Podcast: Can Global Shipping Go Zero Carbon? (LINK)

The New Yorker: Politics and More Podcast: How Facebook Continues to Spread Fake News [with Evan Osnos] (LINK)

For the golf fans out there.... Are You Not Entertained? Podcast: 208 - Jeehae Lee & Craig Connolly (the wee man) on the future of golf (LINK)

The ‘Ghost’ Genes of a Nearly Extinct Animal Live on in Texas - by Sarah Zhang (LINK)

A photographer began shooting unusual-looking coyotes on Galveston Island. They turned out to be descended from a very rare wolf species.

Links

"The businesses at the top of my portfolio are not necessarily going to be the ones that perform the best over the long term but are the ones I know will perform." --Chris Bloomstran [Source] 

1986 article: How to Tame the Casino Society - by Warren E. Buffett [H/T Linc] (LINK)

Non-Ergodicity and its Implications for Businesses and Investors - by Sanjay Bakshi (LINK)

A Big Little Idea Called Ergodicity (Or The Ultimate Guide to Russian Roulette) (LINK)

Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Skin in the Game (video) (LINK)

Related book: Skin in the Game

Robert G. Hagstrom on Liberal Arts Investing (video) (LINK)

Making a Killing with Bethany McLean (podcast): Tesla, and why "Elon Musk doesn't care about you" (LINK)

The Acquirers Podcast: Big Decisions: Michael Mauboussin talks luck, skill, success, risk, mean reversion and the base rate (LINK)

Robert Iger talks with Oprah Winfrey about his career at Disney (video) (LINK)

Related book: The Ride of a Lifetime: Lessons Learned from 15 Years as CEO of the Walt Disney Company

Yuval Noah Harari & Steven Pinker in conversation (video) (LINK)

The world is uniting to help this group - by Bill Gates (LINK)

Bill Gates delivers a speech at the Global Fund Replenishment conference in France.

The Many Contradictions of Thomas Edison - by Derek Thompson (LINK)

Related book: Edison - by Edmund Morris

It's only $4.99. But Costco's rotisserie chicken comes at a huge price (LINK)

A tweetstorm from Tren Griffin about wholesale transfer pricing power (LINK)

Why So Negative? - by Peter Zeihan (LINK)

What Economists (Including Me) Got Wrong About Globalization - by Paul Krugman (LINK)

Odd Lots Podcast: Why Governments Haven’t Learned The Lessons Of Japan (LINK)

The New Yorker Radio Hour (podcast): New Yorker Writers on Hong Kong, and Nixon After Tiananmen Square (LINK)

The New Yorker: Politics and More Podcast: Trump’s Abandonment of the Kurds Appeases Erdoğan and Infuriates Republicans (LINK)

Dexter Filkins joins Dorothy Wickenden to discuss how the incursion into Syria is affecting one of the most volatile regions in the world, and what it could mean for Trump’s Presidency.

5 Tenets of a Negative Self-Help - by Mark Manson (LINK)

Magnetars are the most powerful magnets in the Universe. Here's how they're made. - by Phil Plait (LINK)

What Made Me Reconsider the Anthropocene - by Peter Brannen (LINK)

Links

Note: The early bird discount for the Project Punch Card Value Investing Conference expires on Tuesday, October 15th (when the price will increase from $245 to $495).

***

Is Amazon Unstoppable? - by Charles Duhigg (LINK)

That Time Warren Buffett's Investment Was Blocked by Bank of America’s Call Center (LINK)

GMO Quarterly Letter | Shades of 2000 - by Ben Inker (LINK)

The years leading up to the 2000 stock market bubble were extraordinary and unprecedented. They caused unique pain to the portfolios of valuation-driven investors. The valuation extremes, though, created the greatest opportunity set for valuation-driven investors since the Great Depression. While the events of the last decade have not been as striking as those of the late 1990s, the recent cycle has gone on for significantly longer and the pain caused to our portfolios has begun to approach 1990’s levels. As the current cycle has ground on slowly but surely, the valuation extremes have moved wider, creating an opportunity set for valuation-driven investors that looks as extraordinary as what we saw 20 years ago.

Bill Nygren Market Commentary | 3Q19 (LINK)

Greece, Once in Crisis, Joins Negative-Rates Club ($) (LINK)

Debt-laden country sells bonds yielding less than 0% for the first time

China Forces the N.B.A. to Weigh Value Against Values - by Evan Osnos (LINK)

Shipping Fuel Is About to Get Cleaner. What It Means for Investors. ($) (LINK)

Is a split in the works between Zambia and its long-time business partner, China? [H/T @michaelxpettis] (LINK)

My New Book, Why I Wrote It, and Where the Money Will Go - by Ben Horowitz (LINK)

Related book (end-of-month release): What You Do Is Who You Are: How to Create Your Business Culture

The Talk Show With John Gruber: 265: ‘Thompson’s Razor’, With Special Guest Ben Thompson (LINK)

Kosmos with a K Podcast: #7 Tyler Cowen (GMU) on less homework, Swiss science culture, and low university completion rates (LINK)

MartyrMade Podcast #13 – God’s Socialist, pt. 3: Head North, Then Turn Left [H/T @maxolson] (LINK)

In this episode I trace the trajectory of the civil rights movement through the 1960s, and the gradual shift in emphasis and leadership from the stoic southern marchers following Martin Luther King, Jr to the militant Black Power soldiers of the northern ghettos.

The Andromeda Galaxy ate its small friends… twice - by Phil Plait (LINK)

The day our galaxy exploded - by Phil Plait (LINK)

Researchers “Translate” Bat Talk. Turns Out, They Argue—A Lot (LINK)

It’s Possible to Inherit More DNA From One Parent Than the Other - by Sarah Zhang (LINK)

TED Talk: What Bruce Lee can teach us about living fully | Shannon Lee (LINK)

Marcus Aurelius on How to Control the Mind (LINK)

Book of the day (end-of-month release): The End Is Always Near: Apocalyptic Moments, from the Bronze Age Collapse to Nuclear Near Misses - by Dan Carlin 

Links

Note to readers: I'm traveling with limited internet access over the next week or two, so posting will probably be less frequent than normal.

***

"We think that when we make a decision, there ought to be such a margin of safety that it ought to be so attractive that you don’t have to carry it out to three decimal places." --Warren Buffett (1995)

Beachheads and Obstacles - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

Bubble Yet? (The Brooklyn Investor blog) (LINK)

The Absolute Return Letter - October 2019: How to invest in a low growth world (Part 1 of 2) (LINK)

Michael Bloomberg’s Answer to the U.N. General Assembly - by Evan Osnos (LINK)

Some takeaways from The Autobiography of Benjamin Franklin (LINK)

Kyle Bass: Hong Kong Protests are Chinese Regime’s “Worst Nightmare” in US China Trade War (video) (LINK)

Odd Lots Podcast: How Financial Repression in China Helped Cause the Trade War (LINK)

Hidden Forces Podcast: Financial Fault Lines, Central Banks, and the Law of Unintended Consequences | William White (LINK)

Masters in Business Podcast: Brian Grazer Discusses Imagine Entertainment (LINK)

The James Altucher Show (podcast): 493 -- Frank Abagnale (LINK)

What Got You There Podcast: #158 Brent Beshore (LINK)

The Knowledge Project Podcast -- Jim Collins: Keeping the Flywheel in Motion (LINK)

Externalities: Why We Can Never Do “One Thing” (LINK)

The Messy World of Crime-Solving Genealogists - by Sarah Zhang (LINK)

Links

"If we could guess successfully a high percentage of the time where the stock market was going to go, we would do nothing but play the S&P futures market. There wouldn’t be any reason to look at businesses and stocks. It’s just not our game. What we see when we look at the stock market is we see thousands and thousands and thousands of companies priced every day, and we ignore 99.9 percent of what we see, although we run our eyes over them. And then every now and then we see something that looks like it’s attractively priced to us, as a business. Forget about the word 'stock.' So when we buy a stock, we would be happy with that stock if they told us the market was going to close for a couple years. We look to the business." --Warren Buffett (2008)

Cliff Asness on why it's hard to say when value wins again (LINK) [“A huge part of our job is building a great investment process that will make money over the long term, but a fair amount of our job is sticking to it like grim death during the tougher times.”]

How Elon Musk Gambled Tesla to Save SolarCity - by Bethany McLean (LINK)

Streaming Video Will Soon Look Like the Bad Old Days of TV - by Matthew Ball (LINK)

China's Hong Kong Dilemma - by Evan Osnos (LINK)

The Acquirers Podcast: Ian Cassel chats with Tobias Carlisle (LINK)

The Investor’s Podcast: Small Cap Investing - w/ Eric Cinnamond (LINK)

Flux Podcast: 24: Matt Cauble—Soylent’s Co-Founder Goes After Alcohol (LINK)

Radiolab Podcast: Right to be Forgotten (LINK)

Attachment Theory - by Mark Manson (LINK)

Links

"Any asset class that has a big move, that’s based initially on fundamentals, is going to attract speculative participation at some point, and that speculative participation can become dominant as time goes by.... How far it goes, you never know. Some things go on to just unbelievable heights." --Warren Buffett (2006) 

Li Lu: Discussions about Modernization – Part Two: A Look at the Future of Sino-US Relations (December 2018) [H/T Linc] (LINK) [Part 1 was HERE.]

Mohnish Pabrai speaks at Trinity College Dublin - February 21, 2019 (video) (LINK)

Salesforce’s Success Rides on One Man’s Gut (LINK)

‘They Were Conned’: How Reckless Loans Devastated a Generation of Taxi Drivers (LINK)

Exponent Podcast: An Intra-west Debate (LINK)

The Wright Show: A Brief History of Doom (Robert Wright & Richard Vague) (LINK)

Related book: A Brief History of Doom: Two Hundred Years of Financial Crises

How China Sees Trump and the Rapidly Escalating Trade War (podcast) (LINK)

Evan Osnos joins Dorothy Wickenden to discuss the forces driving the first real economic and political test between the two superpowers of the twenty-first century. 

Five Good Questions: Barbara Tversky – Mind in Motion (LINK)

Beyond the Hype of Lab-Grown Diamonds [H/T Abnormal Returns] (LINK)

Links

Terry Smith, Fundsmith LLP, March 2019 Presentation (video) [H/T @iancassel] (LINK)

Related book: Accounting for Growth

Disney and the Future of TV - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

Disney CEO Bob Iger lays out details on company’s Netflix competitor (video) (LINK)

GMO White Paper - Thinking Outside the Box: How and Why to Invest in a Climate Change Strategy (LINK)

Interview Transcripts Tell Story of Fed Over Past 50 Years ($) (LINK)

Transcripts of more than 50 interviews with top Federal Reserve officials and staffers offer an inside view of central bank-operations over the past 50 years, including internal debates and pressures from the White House. 

Among the documents released Friday are interviews with former Fed leaders Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan and Janet Yellen as part of an oral history project in advance of the central bank’s centennial in 2013.

Notes from Toronto - by Chris Mayer (LINK)

Uber's Coming out Party: Personal Mobility Pioneer or Car Service on Steroids? - by Aswath Damodaran (LINK)

Venture Stories Podcast: Robert Greene on his book “The Laws of Human Nature” (LINK)

Exponent Podcast: A Community of Loonies (LINK)

HBR IdeaCast Podcast -- HBR Presents: After Hours (LINK)

Harvard Business School professors and hosts Youngme Moon, Mihir Desai, and Felix Oberholzer-Gee discuss news at the crossroads of business and culture. In this episode, they analyze the current food delivery wars and garner some lessons in crisis management from Boeing.

FT Alphachat Podcast: Odette Lienau on the most complicated debt restructuring in history (LINK)

The Peter Attia Drive (podcast): Matthew Walker, Ph.D., on sleep – Part III of III (LINK)

Related book: Why We Sleep

Cracking the Code: A Toddler, an iPad, and a Tweet - by Evan Osnos (LINK)

Hubble lights up Saturn’s aurorae - by Phil Plait (LINK)

A Natural History Museum Is Under Fire for Hosting Brazil's New President - by Ed Yong (LINK)

'Extraordinary' 500-year-old library catalogue reveals books lost to time (LINK)

Links

Full Transcript of Daily Journal Annual Meeting 2019 (LINK)

Capital Allocators Podcast: Thomas Russo – All About Berkshire Hathaway (LINK)

The Absolute Return Letter, March 2019: More on the Productivity Conundrum (LINK)

Mutual Fund Observer, March 2019 (LINK)

Aswath Damodaran on Acquisitions: Just Say No [H/T @WallStCynic] (LINK)

Amazon’s Project Zero Aims to Help Brands Target Scammers ($) (LINK)

The Side Effects of Million-Dollar Drugs ($) (LINK)

A Storm Is Gathering Over Container Shipping ($) (LINK)

RightScale’s 2019 State of the Cloud Report [H/T @ivan_brussels] (LINK)

How bad science gets used for power and profit by some activists - by Matt Ridley (LINK)

The Fall of ‘America’s Money Answers Man’ (LINK)

Temasek, GGV-backed Chinese startup Iwjw goes into liquidation [H/T @Jkylebass] (LINK)

An Oakland school upped spending after a $2.8M donation of Chinese paintings. Then came the appraisal [H/T @wolfejosh] (LINK)

Trump, Kim, Cohen, and the Limits of the President’s Power - by Evan Osnos (LINK)

Security Markets: The Lay of the Land (a16z video) (LINK)

Recode Decode Podcast -- Chamath Palihapitiya: People in Silicon Valley are deeply unhappy (LINK)

The Stormtrooper Problem: Why Thought Diversity Makes Us Better (LINK)

A galaxy is blowing enormous megacharged superbubbles of gas and cosmic rays - by Phil Plait (LINK)

Links

"We’d love to have a business that could earn 20 percent on a hundred million now. And if we put a billion more in it, it would earn 20 percent more on that billion. But...those businesses are so rare. There are a lot of promises of those businesses, but we’ve practically never seen one. There’ve been a few. Most of the great businesses generate lots of money. They do not generate lots of opportunities to earn high returns on incremental capital." --Warren Buffett (2003)

A fantastic collection of book notes and excerpts [H/T Matt] (LINK)

Why Time Horizon Works - by Morgan Housel (LINK)

My View On: The Green New Deal - by Cullen Roche (LINK)

There's No Good Reason to Trust Blockchain Technology (LINK)

If Self-Discipline Feels Difficult, Then You’re Doing It Wrong - by Mark Manson (LINK)

Five Good Questions Podcast: Kenneth Jeffrey Marshall - Good Stocks Cheap (LINK)

Exponent Podcast: Why Exponent Isn’t On Spotify (LINK)

Evan Osnos joins Dorothy Wickenden to discuss the new Republican and Democratic rhetoric about economic inequities, as the parties look toward the 2020 elections. (podcast) (LINK)

Links

"While investors will obviously achieve the best results by remaining rational thinkers at all times, this is easier said than done. In the financial markets, emotion often takes over, and greed and fear come to dominate investor behavior. Even those who are aware of this, who expect always to invest rationally and to be able to resist their own greedy temptations and panicky reactions, cannot always carry through on their plans." --Seth Klarman (January 2008)

The Investor Seth Klarman, in a Rare Interview, Offers a Warning. Davos Should Listen (LINK)

List of Q4 2018 Investor Letters (to be updated as more become available) [H/T @MineSafety10k] (LINK)

CNBC's Davos interviews with Bill Gates, Jamie Dimon, Dara Khosrowshahi, and Carlos Brito.

Davos panel videos: Financial Innovation for Global Health (Bill Gates, et al.), Business Leadership in the Fourth Industrial Revolution, Safeguarding Our Planet, and more available HERE.

Silicon Valley’s Unbridled Optimism Gets Fresh Reality Check (LINK)

The Investing City Podcast -- Brent Beshore: Business as a Service (LINK)

Related book: The Messy Marketplace

The Bill Simmons Podcast: Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey (LINK)

Book of the day: Ackoff's Best: His Classic Writings on Management

Links

Charlie Munger in 2002, in response to a question about the mistake Berkshire made acquiring Dexter Shoe: 

"That shows, which is important to show, that no matter how hard you work at having systems for avoiding error and practices of trying to stay within your circle of competency, et cetera, et cetera, you still make mistakes."

***

What You Can Learn From One of Warren Buffett’s Smartest Investors - by Jason Zweig (LINK)

Here’s What Warren Buffett Sends to a Select Group of People at Christmas - by Carol Loomis [H/T Linc] (LINK)

Ajit Jain buys $20 million of Berkshire Hathaway’s shares (LINK)

Berkshire Hathaway’s Ajit Jain bought about $20 million of stock on Dec. 18, according to a regulatory filing on Thursday. 

The move was in A shares, the ones that trade around $288,000 each. The filing said the purchases were done in multiple transactions at prices ranging from $295,750 to $297,000 a share. The move could be interpreted as a sign of confidence as the stock market continued its multi-day plunge to fresh lows for the year.

Howard Marks: UCLA Anderson Fink Center "Mastering the Market Cycle" (video) (LINK)

During a standing-room only interview at UCLA Anderson on October 11, 2018, living investment legend Howard Marks encouraged investors of all experience levels to develop a keen observation of cyclical indicators and historic market patterns to manifest opportunities. 

Howard Marks: CAIA / CFA / HKSFA Hong Kong (video) (LINK)

Howard Marks, Co-Chairman, speaks with Ms. Teresa Han at an event co-hosted by CAIA / CFA / HKSFA / Oaktree in Hong Kong. (Recorded on October 26, 2018)

‘Canada’s Warren Buffett’ Drives His Own Pickup Truck [H/T Linc] (LINK)

On the road with billionaire Jim Pattison.

Michael Shearn: Invest in Leadership [H/T @iancassel] (LINK)

Investing Lessons from Bill Browder [H/T @iancassel] (LINK)

David Tepper: Fed is done supporting stock prices, so cash is ‘not so bad’ as an investment now [From Thursday morning] (LINK)

It’s Not Time to Panic (Yet) - by Cullen Roche (LINK)

Demon Underneath: John DeLorean and the invention of the future [H/T @jtepper2] (LINK)

Long before Elon Musk, a visionary automaker showed how ugly the American Dream could be.

Weaving Magic Unravels in Woolrich, Pa. [H/T @timhanso] (LINK)

After nearly two centuries, a mill closes and a storied brand ceases to be ‘Made in the U.S.A.’

How Much Trust Can Facebook Afford to Lose? - by Evan Osnos (LINK)

How Worried Should Americans Be About Facebook and Cyber Warfare? (podcast) (LINK)

Evan Osnos joins Dorothy Wickenden to discuss investigations into what Facebook knew about Russia’s interference in the 2016 election, and into the company’s misuse of users’ data.

A16z videos on What’s Next for Marketplace Startups, Extending Human Lifespan, Programming Medicine, and Nature as Technology.

Graham Allison: My North Korea Prediction for 2019 (LINK)

The Itsy-Bitsy, Teenie-Weenie, Very Litigious Kiini Bikini (LINK)

A Courting Peacock Can Shake Its Partner’s Head From Afar - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Apollo 8’s Earthrise: The Shot Seen Round the World (LINK)

Links

From Gene Editing to A.I., How Will Technology Transform Humanity? (LINK)

Five big thinkers — Regina Barzilay, George Church, Jennifer Egan, Catherine Mohr and Siddhartha Mukherjee — puzzle over the future of the future.

The end of the beginning (video) (LINK)

In his now annual state-of-innovation talk at the a16z Summit in November 2018, Andreessen Horowitz’ Benedict Evans walks through where we are now in software eating the world… and how things may continue to change over the next 10 years.

Thoughts and notes from Liberty Investor Day 2018 (LINK)

Facebook and the Age of Manipulation - by Evan Osnos (LINK)

Pivot Podcast with Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway: Facebook’s dirty tricks (LINK)

The Complicated Legacy of Stewart Brand’s “Whole Earth Catalog” (LINK)

A massive change: Nations redefine the kilogram [H/T Linc] (LINK)

Links

A reminder to readers, especially those in and around New York City, the super-early-bird pricing for the Project Punch Card Conference ends on November 7th. 

***

"Once you crank into your mental apparatus that you’re not looking at things that wiggle up and down on charts, or that people send you little missives on, you know, saying buy this because it’s going up next week, or it’s going to split, or the dividend’s going to get increased, or whatever, but instead you’re buying a business. You’ve now set a foundation for going on and thinking rationally about investing. And there’s no reason why you need a high IQ to do that. There’s no reason why you have to be born in some way. I do think there’s certain matters of temperament that may be innate, they may be learned, they may be intensified by experience as you go on, partially innate, but then reinforced in various ways by your experience as you go through life, but that’s enormously important. I mean, you have to be realistic. You have to just define your circle of competence accurately. You have to know what you don’t know and not get enticed by it.... You’ve got to have an interest in money, I think, or you won’t be good in investing. But I think if you’re very greedy, it’ll be a disaster, because that will overcome rationality." --Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Repurchases More Than $900 Million of Stock ($) (LINK)

Berkshire’s Repurchase Policy: Too Little, Too Late? (LINK)

Howard Marks chats with James Altucher (podcast) (LINK)

Related book: Mastering the Market Cycle

The Tim Ferriss Show: Seth Godin on How to Say “No,” Market Like a Professional, and Win at Life (LINK)

Related book: This Is Marketing: You Can't Be Seen Until You Learn to See  

Related 2010 article (mentioned in the podcast): The world’s worst boss

Elon Musk: The Recode interview (podcast and transcript) (LINK)

Robert Cialdini on the Masters in Business podcast (LINK)

Leithner Letter No. 229-232 (LINK)

Unpacking Industry 4.0 (LINK)

Could Military Veterans Change More Than Control of Congress? - by Evan Osnos (LINK)

Links

An excerpt from a rare, long interview with Stanley Druckenmiller (video) (LINK) [If you want to watch the entire 90-minute interview and you're not yet a subscriber, you can join or take a free trial by signing up HERE.]

A Primer on Banks (LINK)

The ‘Dumb’ Money Is Bailing on U.S. Stocks. That’s Smart. - by Jason Zweig ($) (LINK)

Lessons from Scott Belsky’s Book “The Messy Middle” - by Tren Griffin (LINK)

Market Timing is Hard - by Ben Carlson (LINK)

Insider Trading’s Odd Couple: The Goldman Banker and the NFL Linebacker (LINK)

Cities Are Teaming Up to Offer Broadband, and the FCC Is Mad (LINK)

How Serious is the New Facebook Breach? - by Evan Osnos (LINK)

TED Talk: 3 lessons on decision-making from a poker champion | Liv Boeree (LINK)

This Timeless And Boldy Optimistic Idea Could Change Your Life - by Ryan Holiday (LINK)

Michael Lewis’s new book about Trump is a convincing ode to big government (LINK)

The book, which combines two features Lewis wrote for Vanity Fair and an audiobook he produced with Audible, extolls the virtues of the government at its best: The weather data we get from our apps? Thank NOAA. The fact that there aren’t more geese crowding American airports? Thanks, US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The reason eastern North Carolina didn’t get obliterated by a rogue hydrogen bomb in 1961? Safety mechanisms built by the Department of Energy (DOE).