Showing posts with label Neil deGrasse Tyson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Neil deGrasse Tyson. Show all posts

Saturday, October 5, 2019

Links

"The inflow of money and outflow of money should not be, in our view, attempted to be matched too carefully in this world, because you get investment and business opportunities at times that differ from the times that funds come in. And one of the most important disciplines in running a business or managing investments is to not try to coordinate your actions simply with the availability of cash." --Warren Buffett (1996)

Channels: The Business of Communications periodical, dated November 1986 (Warren Buffett cover) [H/T Linc] (LINK)

Three Big Things: The Most Important Forces Shaping the World - by Morgan Housel (LINK)

How a Public Narrative Can Move Markets - by Frank K. Martin (LINK)

Why Ken Fisher Advertises So Much (LINK)

The Map and the Terrain - by Ben Horowitz (LINK)

Exponent Podcast: 174 — Distracted at Facebook (LINK)

The Ezra Klein Show (podcast): Malcolm Gladwell’s Stranger Things (LINK)
Related book: Talking to Strangers
The Tim Ferriss Show (podcast): #389: Neil deGrasse Tyson — How to Dream Big, Think Scientifically, and Get More Done (LINK)

HBR IdeaCast: 703: Melinda Gates on Fighting for Gender Equality (LINK)

Value Investing with Legends Podcast: Jenny Wallace - Identifying Value at the Summit (LINK)

Mars sounds weird - by Phil Plait (LINK)

Sunday, September 8, 2019

Links

Knowing If You Can Stomach the Next Big Market Swing - by Jason Zweig ($) (LINK)

From Shareholder wealth to Stakeholder interests: CEO Capitulation or Empty Doublespeak? - by Aswath Damodaran (LINK)

The Time Netflix Considered Selling Itself to Amazon for Peanuts ($) (LINK)

Without state bond, PG&E needs money — and hedge funds await CA’s largest utility (LINK)

RA Conversations: Robert Shiller Explains Narrative Economics (video) (LINK)
Related book: Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events
The Jolly Swagman Podcast: #71: Markets and The Madness of Crowds — Robert Shiller (LINK)

Five Good Questions Podcast: Mark Simpson - Excellent Investing (LINK)
Related book: Excellent Investing: How to Build a Winning Portfolio
Masters in Business Podcast: Kara Swisher Discusses the Tech Industry (LINK)

Planet Money Podcast: #938: The Marshall Plan (LINK)

Neil deGrasse Tyson chats with Joe Rogan (podcast) (LINK)

What’s it like to live on less than $2 a day? (LINK)

A History of South Asia, Told in Ancient DNA - by Sarah Zhang (LINK)

An Astronaut Reared the World’s Highest-Flying Birds - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Book of the day [H/T @ChrisBloomstran]: Mentor: Life and Legacy of Joe Rosenfield

Thursday, August 23, 2018

Links

"I think if you have very unreasonable expectations of life, it makes life much more miserable. Much better to get your expectations within reason. It’s much easier to reduce expectations to some reasonable level than it is to get superhuman achievements." --Charlie Munger

It’s Not Supposed to be Easy: How Oaktree Strives to Add Value in Uncertain Times (LINK) [From a couple of months ago.]

Who Killed Toys ‘R’ Us? Hint: It Wasn’t Only Amazon ($) (LINK)

The Yield of an Empire - by Jamie Catherwood (LINK)

A Brief Summary of the Social Media Reform Movement - by Cal Newport (LINK)

American Innovations Podcast: The Future Of | Predicting the Future | 4 (LINK)

Legendary Coach John Wooden’s Secrets of Leadership (The Art of Manliness podcast) (LINK)

Neil deGrasse Tyson talks with Joe Rogan (podcast) (LINK)

A Blended Family: Her Mother Was Neanderthal, Her Father Something Else Entirely (LINK)
In a limestone cave nestled high above the Anuy River in Siberia, scientists have discovered the fossil of an extraordinary human hybrid. 
The 90,000-year-old bone fragment came from a female whose mother was Neanderthal, according to an analysis of DNA discovered inside it. But her father was not: He belonged to another branch of ancient humanity known as the Denisovans. 
Scientists have been recovering genomes from ancient human fossils for just over a decade. Now, with the discovery of a Neanderthal-Denisovan hybrid, the world as it was tens of thousands of years ago is coming into remarkable new focus: home to a marvelous range of human diversity.

Wednesday, March 14, 2018

Links

"One, remember to look up at the stars and not down at your feet. Two, never give up work. Work gives you meaning and purpose and life is empty without it. Three, if you are lucky enough to find love, remember it is there and don't throw it away." -Stephen Hawking

The Power of Detachment (LINK)
Piramal Enterprises has the rare distinction of generating annualized shareholder return of 30% over 29 years till 2017. And the architect behind this stunning performance is Ajay Piramal.
Theranos and Silicon Valley's 'Fake It Till You Make It' Culture (LINK)

Billionaire Raises His Bet on Containerships (LINK)

Not a Single Japanese 10-Year Bond Traded Tuesday (LINK)

WorkLife with Adam Grant (podcast): The Team of Humble Narcissists (LINK)

Jordan Peterson on taking responsibility for your life (video) (LINK)
Related book: 12 Rules for Life: An Antidote to Chaos
What a Giant Soda Stream Reveals About the Fate of Corals - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Stephen Hawking (1942–2018) (LINK)

The Universe and Beyond, with Stephen Hawking [aired 10 days ago] (video) (LINK)
This year’s season finale of StarTalk on National Geographic TV was Neil deGrasse Tyson's interview with Stephen Hawking. In memory of his passing, and in celebration of his life, we offer that episode for you here, now, commercial free.

Tuesday, October 10, 2017

Links

"I am satisfied, if every day I take away something from my vices and correct my faults. I have not arrived at perfect soundness of mind, indeed, I never shall arrive at it." -Seneca ("On the Happy Life")

"Be at war with your vices, at peace with your neighbors, and let every new year find you a better man." -Benjamin Franklin

Great notes from a July workshop given by Sanjay Bakshi (LINK)

An audience with Jack Bogle: 'Warren can get a little intoxicating' [H/T Linc] (LINK)

Income Investors: It’s OK to Be Sad, But Don’t Get Desperate - by Jason Zweig (LINK)

Sir Richard Branson talks to Tim Ferriss (podcast) (LINK)

The Final Episode of Patrick O'Shaughnessy's audio documentary on the world of blockchain and cryptocurrencies: Hash Power – Ep. 3 – Funding, Forking, and Our Creative Future (LINK)

Tim O'Reilly on EconTalk (podcast) (LINK)
Related book: WTF?: What's the Future and Why It's Up to Us
The Making of Richard Thaler's Economics Nobel [H/T Linc] (LINK)
Related book: Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics - by Richard Thaler
Edge #501: Richard Thaler Wins Nobel Prize in Economics (LINK) [A re-post of... Edge Master Class 2008: Richard Thaler, Sendhil Mullainathan, Daniel Kahneman - A Short Course in Behavioral Economics]

Monday, June 12, 2017

Links

Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting 2017 Transcript [H/T Hurricane Capital] (LINK)

TED Talk -- Tim Ferriss: Why you should define your fears instead of your goals (LINK)

Latticework of Mental Models: Risk Aversion Vs Loss Aversion (LINK)

A Dozen Lessons about Business and Investing I’ve Learned from Mike Maples Jr. - by Tren Griffin (LINK)

Harry Markopolos – Who Exposed Madoff – Has Uncovered a New Fraud [H/T ValueWalk] (LINK)

Does Anyone Remember How to Make a Subprime Mortgage? [H/T Matt Levine] (LINK)

How I Built This podcast -- Carol's Daughter: Lisa Price (LINK)

Daron Acemoglu on the Masters in Business podcast (LINK)
Related book:  Why Nations Fail
Hunt, O'Hanley, Greenblatt on the Future of Actives (video) [H/T Linc] (LINK)
PGIM President and CEO David Hunt, State Street Global Advisors President and CEO Ron O'Hanley, and Gotham Asset Management Co-Chief Investment Officer Joel Greenblatt speak with Bloomberg's Peggy Collins at Bloomberg Invest New York about the threat from passives and where they see the biggest areas for growth for active managers. (Source: Bloomberg)
92nd Street Y -- The Stripe Approach to Building a Better Business (video) (LINK)
The Stripe Approach to Building a Better Business with Patrick Collison, Timothy Geithner and Andrew Ross Sorkin. Recorded on May 11, 2017 at 92nd Street Y.
92nd Street Y -- Science and Communication: Alan Alda in Conversation with Neil deGrasse Tyson (video) (LINK)
Related book: If I Understood You, Would I Have This Look on My Face?: My Adventures in the Art and Science of Relating and Communicating 
The greatest sports achievement in my lifetime? - by Eugene Wei [H/T The Browser] (LINK)
A week ago, Alex Honnold free climbed El Capitan. With no ropes or climbing gear besides his shoes and chalk, Honnold became the first person to free climb what is universally acknowledged, among the climbing world, as the most daunting challenge in what most people consider to be less sport than a perverse game of Russian roulette with fate.
Book of the day [H/T @BaseHitInvestor]: The JD.com Story: An E-commerce Phenomenon

Friday, May 26, 2017

Links

"Traditionally the investor has been the man with patience and the courage of his convictions who would buy when the harried or disheartened speculator was selling." -Benjamin Graham & David Dodd, Security Analysis

Don’t Compare Yourself To Others - by Ian Cassel (LINK) [“To be a disciplined investor you have to be willing to stand by and watch other people make money on things that you passed on” – Howard Marks]

Perpetual Beta - by Chris Pavese (LINK)

How to Be Your Own Quant - by Jason Zweig [H/T Linc] (LINK)

Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Being Wrong in an Interesting Way (LINK)

Exponent podcast: Episode 116 — Blockchain Beauty Contest (LINK)

Why Flamingos Are More Stable on One Leg Than Two - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Why Did the Biggest Whales Get So Big? … and perhaps more importantly: when? - by Ed Yong (LINK)

How Zika Conquered the Americas - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Neil deGrasse Tyson talks with Charlie Rose about his latest book, Astrophysics for People in a Hurry (LINK)

***

On a separate note.... I've been doing a lot of walking (slowly) over the last few days, and these are probably my favorite pair of shoes I've owned, for those that may be interested (and who like the thin, barefoot-style sole): Merrell Men's Vapor Glove 2 Trail Running Shoe

Saturday, April 8, 2017

2017 Isaac Asimov Memorial Debate: De-Extinction

Neil deGrasse Tyson and panelists discuss de-extinction in the 2017 Isaac Asimov Memorial Debate at the American Museum of Natural History. Biologists today have the knowledge, the tools, and the ability to influence the evolution of life on Earth. Do we have an obligation to bring back species that human activities may have rendered extinct? Does the technology exist to do so? Join Tyson and the panel for a lively debate about the merits and shortcomings of this provocative idea.


Link to video

Thursday, October 13, 2016

Links

I will be without internet for about the next week and a half. I have some quotes and book excerpts scheduled, but this will be the last compilation of links during that time.

A review of the book Inside the Investments of Warren Buffett: Twenty Cases (LINK)

Interview with Curtis Jensen (Part 1) (LINK)

KKR Said to Write Off First Brazil Deal Amid Aceco Legal Battles (LINK)

The President in Conversation With MIT’s Joi Ito and WIRED’s Scott Dadich (LINK)

Amazon challenges Apple and Spotify with new music streaming service (LINK)

How I practice Stoicism, the nuts and bolts - by Massimo Pigliucci (LINK)

Hot and spicy pain signals get blocked in naked mole-rats (LINK)

Watch How Bizarre 'Water Monsters' Get a Second Chance (video) (LINK)

Earthrise, From the Moon (LINK)

And related to the above, or in case you haven't watched them in a while: 1) Carl Sagan - Pale Blue Dot; 2) The Most Astounding Fact About the Universe

Monday, October 26, 2015

Links

Nassim Taleb on the success of Munger-Buffett (LINK)
So I figured out something about the success of Munger-Buffett. It is not in the strategies they run, but in their very, very, very strong filtering.  
Simply it is generalized flaneuring. Charlie Munger: "We have no system for estimating the correct value of all businesses. We put almost all in the "too hard" pile and sift through a few easy ones". "Warren (Buffett) talks about these discounted cash flows. I've never seen him do one".
Related previous posts to the above: 1) Filters; and 2) Memortation, or One Way to Put What You Learn to Practical Use

And Peter Bevelin also shared some wisdom in this regard in my interviews with him:
I found that I could increase my chance of making better judgments if I could learn what works and not, if I adapt what I do to my personal situation, and if I could establish some values and preferences. If I then could set up some avoid-rules and filters/tests to judge what make sense or is important or not, life could be improved (even if I still do some mistakes; but hopefully I am less of a fool now). Also remember that all decisions aren’t important. Some people spend more time making a judgment on what TV to buy or where to go on vacation than a life-changing decision like marriage. 
..... 
Generally, keep it simple and use some filters. Some questions I ask myself: Is it important? If yes, is it knowable? If yes, is this within my circle of competence? Which of course assumes that I know what I know and can do, and what I don’t know and can’t do. Otherwise I exclude and throw it in to too hard pile. If within, then, any testable argument should be tested – What is the evidence? Can I disprove it? Compared to what (including negative cases and non-events)? Randomness content? If I believe this, what would follow? What would I have to check out? What ideas can help me?
A Dozen Things Learned from Charlie Munger about Ethics (LINK)

Great investor videos from the team at BeyondProxy [H/T csinvesting] (LINK)

The Best Value Traps (LINK)

Valeant Case Study in Progress (LINK)

Hussman Weekly Market Comment: How Market Cycles Are Completed (LINK)
Even in periods where interest rates have been quite depressed, not a single market cycle in history failed to end with estimated prospective 10-year S&P 500 returns close to 10% annually, if not dramatically higher. Based on the most historically reliable valuation measures, the S&P 500 would have to lose literally half of its value for prospective returns to rise to that level. A 50% market loss isn’t a worst-case scenario. Given current valuations, it’s the standard, run-of-the-mill outcome that investors should expect over the completion of this cycle. 
The measures we find most strongly correlated with actual subsequent S&P 500 total returns now project zero total returns for the S&P 500 on a 10-year horizon, and about 1% annual nominal total returns for the index on a 12-year horizon.
Paul Graham: Write Like You Talk (LINK)

Laszlo Bock on Charlie Rose discussing his book, Work Rules! (video) (LINK)

Neil deGrasse Tyson talks to the WSJ [H/T Will] (video) (LINK)

9 Learnings from 9 Years of Brain Pickings (LINK)

Tuesday, July 21, 2015

Links

Research Affiliates: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models (LINK)
Our answer to the question “Are stocks overvalued?” in the U.S. market is a resounding “Yes!” Our forecast for core U.S. equities is a 0.8% annualized real return over the next decade. The 10-year expected real return for emerging markets equity, however, is much higher at 5.9% a year. The return potential of the nondeveloped markets is so high, in fact, that the valuation models, warts and all, paint a very clear picture.
Frenzy Around Shopping Site Jet.com Harks Back to Dot-Com Boom [H/T Will] (LINK)
Online marketplace Jet.com Inc. has almost no revenue, years of likely losses in its future and a strategy that includes underpricing mighty Amazon.com Inc. on millions of items. Jet also has perhaps the highest valuation ever among e-commerce startups before their official launch. 
That is no contradiction in Silicon Valley, where investors keep pouring money into audacious business experiments filled with big-splash potential. Jet is the buzziest e-commerce arrival of the current boom, with $225 million in capital raised in the past year and a timer on its website counting down the seconds to Tuesday’s opening of Jet to the public. 
More than just about any other current startup, Jet seems reminiscent of the dot-com boom era, when e-commerce companies assumed giant losses before breaking into the black. 
Anticipation runs so high that Jet’s founder and chief executive, Marc Lore, is in talks with investors about raising hundreds of millions of dollars in additional capital by year end, according to people briefed on the discussions. The infusion could increase the online retailer’s value to $3 billion from $600 million.
Tim Harford: It’s tough turning ideas into gold (LINK)

The Magic of Tidying Up—Digitally [H/T @DanielPink] (LINK)
Related book: The Life-Changing Magic of Tidying Up: The Japanese Art of Decluttering and Organizing
Best of Neil deGrasse Tyson Arguments And Comebacks, Part 1 (video) [H/T Linc] (LINK)

Alien Animals and Tortured Seascapes off the Galápagos (LINK)

Friday, July 17, 2015

Links

Warren Buffett and Bill and Melinda Gates will be on Charlie Rose tonight.

Horizon Kinetics: 2nd Quarter Commentary (LINK)

Claire Barnes' Q2 Report: Stormy macro, reassuring micro (LINK)

TEDx Talk - Lukas Neely: Is This the Death of Investing? (video) (LINK)
Related book: Value Investing: A Value Investor's Journey Through The Unknown
Speech by Andrew Haldane, Executive Director and Chief Economist of the Bank of England (LINK)

Study Shows Diseases Like Plague Can Perilously Evolve (LINK)

Edge: The Next Wave: A Conversation With John Markof (LINK)

Stephen Colbert talks to Neil deGrasse Tyson about Pluto (video) (LINK)

David McCullough with Ken Burns on The Wright Brothers (video) (LINK)
Related book: The Wright Brothers

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Links

Neil deGrasse Tyson on Charlie Rose (video) (LINK)

Aswath Damodaran: No Light at the end of the Tunnel: Investing in Bad Businesses (LINK)

Fairfax Financial Ltd chief Prem Watsa tells his ‘Horatio Alger’ story [H/T Will] (LINK)

Jim Chanos' Wall Street Week video [H/T ValueWalk] (LINK)

Kyle Bass reveals his best trade idea for 2015 and comes clean about a trade he got 'dead wrong' (LINK)

Lessons learned from passing on Berkshire Hathaway at $97 per share in 1982 (LINK)

Zappos CEO Tony Hsieh: Adopt Holacracy Or Leave (LINK)
Related book: Reinventing Organizations
Book of the day: Capital: The Story of Long-Term Investment Excellence

Friday, May 22, 2015

Links

How Do You Utilize 2nd Level Thinking? (LINK)
Related book: The Most Important Thing
Are declining businesses good shorts? (LINK)

Carson Block At Baruch Talks Short-Selling In China (video) (LINK)

Ian Bremmer: Geopolitics Is Unstable and Dangerous Now (LINK)
Related book (released this week): Superpower: Three Choices for America's Role in the World 
Related link (video): Ian Bremmer on Charlie Rose
Rob Arnott: Does Unreal GDP Drive Our Policy Choices? (April 2011) (LINK)

Mark Buchanan summarizes Nassim Taleb's latest paper  (LINK)
Violent warfare is on the wane, right? Many optimists think so. But a close look at the statistics suggests that the idea just doesn’t add up
An explosion in artificial intelligence has sent us hurtling towards a post-human future, warns Martin Rees (LINK)

Global ocean trawl reveals plethora of new lifeforms (LINK)
But most interesting — in Gilbert’s view — was how the team used the genetic data to predict interactions between individual organisms. In one example, they predicted that a flatworm belonging to the genus Symsagittifera would have a symbiotic interaction with a photosynthetic microalga of the genus Tetraselmis. To check, the team identified specimens of the worm and studied them under a microscope. Sure enough, they saw algal cells inside the worms and matched the DNA label of these algae to the ones predicted to be symbionts. “It was a beautiful study that shows you what network analysis, or ‘interactive-omics’, can actually achieve,” Gilbert says.
'Stable' region of Antarctica is melting (LINK)
Related video: Cosmos A Space Time Odyssey - Season 01 - Episode 12

Thursday, May 7, 2015

Links

Notes from the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting (Part I, Part II)

Philosophical Economics: Profit Margins in a “Winner Take All” Economy (LINK)

Zenefits Is Tagged With a $4.5 Billion Valuation After Just Two Years (LINK) [The Co-Founder was also on the a16z podcast recently, HERE.]

The Pharmaceutical Industry: How to handle an industry in disruption: Intervene or laissez-faire? (LINK)

How Mohnish Pabrai And Charlie Munger Use A Checklist (LINK)

A great video clip from a couple of years ago: Tom Russo on Portfolio Management and His Favorite Valuation Metric [H/T ValueWalk] (LINK)

Watch Neil DeGrasse Tyson Elegantly Debunk The Right Brain, Left Brain Myth [H/T @SciencePorn] (LINK)

Popper Vs. Bacon: A Conversation with Peter Coveney (LINK)

Notes from the book The Mind of the Market: Compassionate Apes, Competitive Humans, and Other Tales from Evolutionary Economics (LINK)

Book scheduled for September release [A culmination of the work begun HERE, I believe.] : Charlie Munger: The Complete Investor - by Tren Griffin

Another book worth checking out: The Anatomy of Humbug: How to Think Differently about Advertising

Monday, March 30, 2015

Links

My friend Lukas' book has officially been released: Value Investing: A Value Investor's Journey Through The Unknown...

Sanjay Bakshi and Vishal Khandelwal's email exchange about why the rules for buying vs. holding a stock are not the same (LINK)

Kyle Bass sits on a panel at The Buttonwood Gathering (video) [H/T Zero Hedge] (LINK)

Barry Ritholtz talks to Charley Ellis, Chair of the Yale Endowment, and author of Winning the Loser’s Game: Timeless Strategies for Successful Investing (LINK)

Steve Keen: The Fed Has Not Learnt From The Crisis (LINK)

Steve Keen on the PeakProsperity podcast (LINK)

Ben Bernanke is now blogging (LINK)

Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Eating Our Seed Corn: The causes of U.S. economic stagnation, and the way forward (LINK)
For practical purposes, the above identity reduces – from the standpoint of overall variability – to a straightforward statement: Unusually elevated corporate profits (a surplus) are largely a mirror image of unusually large deficits in the household and government sectors. Most of the variability in corporate profits over the business cycle is the mirror image of variability in the sum of household savings and government savings. If you examine the actual U.S. data, this is exactly what we observe. Because government and household savings (shown on an inverted scale below) have actually recovered in recent years from the depths of the financial crisis, we’re beginning to see a flattening of growth in U.S. profits. That flattening is likely to turn into outright contraction during the next couple of years.
Mark Buchanan: Common core and common rancor (LINK)
Learning how to distinguish between fact and opinion would seem to be a pretty fundamental piece of any education. In the bizarre world of U.S. public schools, though, it's proving to be controversial. For several years, schools across the U.S. -- with significant help from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation -- have been putting in place something called the Common Core, a set of standards on what students from kindergarten through 12th grade should learn on topics including English, mathematics, science and history. Along the way, they’ve faced ample criticism, some of it reasonable. Teachers, in particular, think they haven't had adequate preparation.
Inside Jeremy Lin's life after Linsanity and the New York Knicks [H/T Abnormal Returns] (LINK)

StarTalk Radio: The Future of Humanity with Elon Musk (LINK)

Book of the day [H/T Brad Feld]: The Intel Trinity: How Robert Noyce, Gordon Moore, and Andy Grove Built the World's Most Important Company

Monday, March 23, 2015

Links

Lee Kuan Yew: The wise man of the East (LINK)
Related book: From Third World to First: The Singapore Story - 1965-2000
"60 Minutes" had three interesting segments last night, including one with Neil deGrasse Tyson (video) (LINK)

Philosophical Economics: A New-and-Improved Shiller CAPE: Solving the Dividend Payout Ratio Problem (LINK)

Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Monetary Policy and the Economy: The Case for Rules Versus Discretion (LINK)
Last week, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) began its statement on monetary policy indicating that recent data “suggests that economic growth has moderated somewhat.” While the Fed removed the phrase that “it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy”, the Fed’s weaker view of the economy prompted an immediate retreat in Treasury yields, an abrupt drop in the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar, a surge in stock prices, and an upward spike in the dollar price of gold and oil. The basic thesis of all of these moves is that the Fed may wait longer before increasing the rate of interest that it pays to banks on idle cash reserves (viz., “raising interest rates”). 
We agree – partly. As I noted a week ago, “From my perspective, it remains unclear whether the Fed will resist the temptation to defer hiking interest rates, given what we observe as a deteriorating economic landscape.” The problem for investors is that along with the initial moves in Treasury yields, the dollar, stocks, gold, and oil that followed the FOMC statement, we also saw credit spreads widen rather than narrow last week, while our measures of market internals continue to show divergences that indicate a shift investor preferences toward increasing risk aversion.

Monday, March 9, 2015

Links

The first time Buffett, Osborne and 18 others were mentioned in The World-Herald [H/T Linc] (LINK)

StarTalk Live! Podcast: Evolution with Richard Dawkins and Bill Nye (Part 2) (LINK) [Related books, with The Ancestor's Tale added from last time, HERE. I also have some other evolution-related books HERE.]

The Brooklyn Investor on the Alleghany Annual Report (LINK)

I posted this a few weeks ago, but the Kyle Bass video interview is making the rounds again, so in case you missed it... (LINK)

Hussman Weekly Market Comment: What Does That Difference Mean? (LINK)
The early weeks of 2015 are the first time in history that both 10-year Treasury yields and our estimates of prospective 10-year nominal total returns for the S&P 500 have both declined below 2% annually. Even at the 2000 peak, when our 10-year total return projections were negative, the 10-year Treasury yield was 6.8%, and small capitalization stocks showed reasonable value, particularly on a relative basis. Presently, long-term bonds provide nowhere to hide, and median equity valuations exceed those at the 2000 peak on price/earnings, price/revenue, and enterprise value/EBITDA. Because of yield-seeking speculation, stock and bond prices today are already where they are likely to be many years from today. Prices are likely to experience an interesting and volatile trip to nowhere in the interim. 
We saw a noteworthy piece from an analyst named Jonathan Selsick last week. Essentially, Selsick examined the Shiller P/E (the S&P 500 divided by the 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings), and showed that the multiple is even better correlated with actual subsequent S&P 500 total returns using 16-year smoothing and a 16-year investment horizon. 
... 
At present, the Shiller-16 (along with a broad range of other historically reliable valuation measures having strong correlation with actual subsequent returns) projects negative total returns for stocks on a 6-year horizon, even assuming continued growth in GDP, revenues, earnings, and other fundamentals. Indeed, current valuations match the levels observed at the 1929 peak. That certainly doesn't imply that equally catastrophic losses are likely to follow (stocks lost 85% of their value from 1929 to 1932 as valuations collapsed from historic highs to historic lows, and keep in mind that even moving from a 70% loss to an 85% loss involves losing half of your money, which is why I insisted on stress-testing in 2009). Still, we believe that projecting a loss for the S&P 500, including dividends, on a 6-year horizon, is an evidence-based estimate, reflecting assumptions that are very much in the middle-of-the road. In other words, we see that expectation as just about right.

Friday, March 6, 2015

Links

Scott Adams: Try This Trick to Improve Focus (LINK)

A rare interview with Frank Martin, via the always excellent work of The Manual of Ideas (LINK)
Related link: Frank Martin's 2014 Annual Letter
The Brooklyn Investor comments on the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report (LINK)
Related previous post: A few comments on the Berkshire Hathaway letter to shareholders
Tim Ferriss talks with Mark Hart and Raoul Pal on his podcast: Hedge Funds, Investing, and Optimizing Lifestyle (LINK)

The British Origins of the US Endowment Model (LINK)

Ross Ashcroft talks to George Cooper, author of Money, Blood and Revolution (audio) (LINK)

Five Good Questions for Scott Fearon about his book Dead Companies Walking (LINK)

An interview with Jony Ive: The man behind the Apple Watch (LINK)

StarTalk Live! Podcast: Evolution with Richard Dawkins and Bill Nye (Part 1) (LINK) [Related books, in what I think is a decent order in which to read them, HERE.]

Quote of the day, which has been posted on the blog before HERE, but is worth repeating many times over: “Most geniuses—especially those who lead others—prosper not by deconstructing intricate complexities but by exploiting unrecognized simplicities.” (The article it originally came from was a January 2014 article describing Peyton Manning, HERE.)

That quote also led me back to another excerpt from that same ECAM letter, which described one of the biggest sources of business (and investment) failure:
Overreaching is one of most common causes of death in trees as it creates an air pocket in the trees’ pipes, xylem, which is why trees will often rot from the inside out. 
Enduring businesses avoid this fate by employing resolute incremental growth. The stewards of these enduring businesses know that most business failures are the direct result of overreaching. Instead of incremental progress, they overreach in an effort to ‘get theirs now.’ Quite often, that unnecessary “extra” decays the organization from the inside out. If you study business failure, you can point to overreaching as the single biggest cause of dialectical materialism in business. We see it every day in the marketplace, in how management rewards themselves with options, and in how management teams follow inferior mergers and acquisitions strategies. How often do we see mergers and acquisitions work well in biology? It is a biologically flawed objective, so why should it work seamlessly in business? It is a short-cut strategy to produce growth that often creates that same embolism that will eventually rot the decent business as they try to merge contrasting DNAs. There are evolved business systems that can integrate mergers and acquisitions well, but they are outliers.
And both the quote and excerpt above also reminded me of a reply Peter Bevelin gave in one of my interviews with him:
As Munger says: “All I want to know is where I’m going to die so I’ll never go there.” When I hear them at the annual meeting, I am thinking about Einstein’s reply to a student. The student had challenged Einstein’s statement that the laws of physics should be simple by asking: “What if they aren’t simple?” Einstein replied, “Then I would not be interested in them.”  
They have a unique ability to distinguish masses of trivia from what is really important – to filter out situations, and find what’s at their core. They tell the simple, blunt truth rather than say things that sound good.