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"I will bet you that a lot of years in the future we, or you, will be able to find equities that you understand, or we understand, and that have the probability of returns at 10 percent or greater. Now, once you find a group of equities in that range, and leaving aside the problem of huge sums of money, which we have, then we just buy the most attractive. That usually means the ones we feel the surest about, I mean, as a practical matter. There’s just some businesses that possess economic characteristics that make their future prospects, far out, far more predictable than others. There’s all kinds of businesses that you just can’t remotely predict what they’ll earn, and you just have to forget about them. So, we have, over time, gotten very partial to the businesses where we think the predictability is high. But we still want a threshold return of 10 percent, which is not that great after-tax, anyway." --Warren Buffett (2003)

"Everything we do comes back to opportunity cost. But it, to some extent — in fact, to some considerable extent — we are guessing at our future opportunity cost. Warren is basically saying that he’s guessing that he’ll have opportunities in due course to put out money at pretty attractive rates of return, and therefore, he’s not going to waste a lot of firepower now at lower returns. But that’s an opportunity cost calculation. And if interest rates were to more or less permanently settle at 1 percent or something like that, and Warren were to reappraise his notions of future opportunity cost, he would change the numbers. It’s like [economist John Maynard] Keynes said, 'What do you do when you change your view of the facts? Well, you change your conduct.' But so far at least, we have hurdles in our mind which...involve, implicitly, future opportunity cost." --Charlie Munger (2003)

Who Is On the Other Side? - by Michael Mauboussin (LINK)

Safal Niveshak's Wall of Ideas (LINK)

Part 2 and Part 3 of the Money Control interview with Sanjay Bakshi [H/T Linc]

Skin in the Game: the Tradition of the Captain and His Ship - by Frank Martin (LINK)

The Cost of Apple News  - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

AR Will Spark the Next Big Tech Platform—Call It Mirrorworld - by Kevin Kelly (LINK)

Susan Crawford on the Community Broadband Bits Podcast (LINK)

Related book: Fiber: The Coming Tech Revolution―and Why America Might Miss It

Scott Adams and Naval Ravikant have another chat (video) (LINK)

Conversations with Tyler (podcast): Jordan Peterson on Mythology, Fame, and Reading People (LINK)

Trailblazers with Walter Isaacson Podcast -- Home Cooking: Technology Worth Savoring (LINK)

A review of A Zen Way of Baseball by Sadaharu Oh and David Falkner (LINK)

Small Teams of Scientists Have Fresher Ideas - by Ed Yong (LINK)

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"Students of financial history can point to historic levels of valuation to suggest that we are in a bubble. But students of psychology may be needed to complete the picture. For one thing, the financial markets have been so strong for so long that fear of market risk has mostly evaporated. People who used to hold bank certificates of deposit now maintain a portfolio of growth stocks. It is not really within human nature to comprehend that you may not know everything you think you know, and, further, that what you believe in could change on a dime.... With more and more of the market value of U.S. equities represented by lofty (in some cases infinite) multiples of current results, a change in sentiment could wipe out a large percentage of investor net worth. Sentiment, existing only in the minds of investors, is subject to change quickly and without notice." --Seth Klarman (June 1999)

Howard Marks' interview on Nasdaq Spotlight (video) (LINK)

Related book: Mastering the Market Cycle

The Battle for the Home - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

The BP Statistical Review of World Energy [H/T @Valuetrap13] (LINK)

For Doctors, Delving Deeper as a Way to Avoid Burnout - by Siddhartha Mukherjee (LINK)

If you keep hearing the name Jordan Peterson but still don't know much about him, this two-and-a-half-hour video conversation seems to cover his thoughts and ideas pretty thoroughly.... Oz Talk: Jordan Peterson’s Rules to Live By

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"There are no secrets in [the investing] business that only the priesthood knows.... It’s all out there in black and white. It’s a simple business.... It requires qualities of temperament way more than it requires qualities of intellect...You do need a certain temperament that enables you to think for yourself. And then you have to develop a framework — and I developed it from reading Ben Graham, I didn’t come up with it myself — very simple framework. And then you have to look for opportunities that fit within that framework as you go through life, and you can’t do something every day...You can learn every day, but you can’t act every day." --Warren Buffett

Buffett Starts to Say Goodbye to a Pile of Equity-Index Options [H/T Linc] (LINK)

I Can’t Hear You: How the New Information Landscape Fuels Tribalism - by Russ Roberts (LINK)

Nassim Nicholas Taleb on the Likeville Podcast (LINK)

Related book: Skin in the Game

Grant's Podcast: Mix and match (LINK)

Jordan Peterson talks with Lewis Howes (podcast) (LINK)

David Graeber in conversation with Rory Sutherland (podcast) (LINK)

Related book: Bullshit Jobs

TED Talk: The rapid growth of the Chinese internet -- and where it's headed | Gary Liu (LINK)

The evolution of ancient Stoicism, and why it matters today (LINK)

Book(s) of the day: Penguin Little Black Classics Box Set

***

For qualified candidates, adventur.es is looking to fill a role that might just be "the best CFO job in Private Equity" (LINK)

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Mohnish Pabrai's Advice For Value Investors (LINK)

One of the big issues investors face is preconceived perspectives.  When we look at a stock, what goes on in our brains when we encounter a company for the first time?  For the first 30, 60 seconds, or first couple minutes? That has a huge impact on our financial well being and how our portfolio does.  In the first few minutes, you’re making a decision on whether you’re going to take a pass at a company, or spend another 15 minutes. And at the end of that 15 minutes, you’re going to make another decision as to whether you’re going to take a pass or spend an hour or two, and so on.  No investor has enough time in the day, week or year, to look at anything more than a small handful of businesses in some depth. 

Even if I look at the United States with its 3500 some odd publicly traded businesses, an investment manager can really not drill down on more than a few dozen of them every year.  So they have to make a decision relatively quickly on which ones they are or are not going to focus on.  Commitment bias that comes in once we start spending time on something, our brains play games with us.  One of the games our brain plays is that we feel entitled. “Hey, if I spent some time on it, I ought to make money on it”. 

And that’s really not how investing works. I think it’s very important to be aware of commitment bias, and to be very aware that the first two or three minutes that when you’re looking at a company are when you have to make the call.  It’s okay to let a winner go, but more important not to let a loser stay.

The Nutella Billionaires: Inside The Ferrero Family’s Secret Empire (LINK)

Amazon to acquire online pharmacy PillPack in a deal that could disrupt the US drugstore business (LINK)

Jim Chanos and James Grant talk about fraud (video) [H/T ValueWalk] (LINK)

Sophisticated investors have been the victims of deception throughout our nation's history. Celebrated financial experts Jim Chanos and James Grant explore historical examples of businesses that became notorious after having been accused or convicted of defrauding their shareholders.

Moving the Needle on a Portfolio - by Frank K. Martin (LINK)

Robert Greene on The Knowledge Project Podcast (LINK)

Talks at GS: Malcolm Gladwell on the Art of Storytelling – From Print to Podcasts (video) (LINK)

Revisionist History Podcast: Malcolm Gladwell's 12 Rules for Life (LINK)

Aspen Ideas Festival -- Jordan Peterson: From the Barricades of the Culture Wars (video) (LINK)

Aspen Ideas Festival -- Democracy Dies In Darkness: An Interview with The Washington Post's Martin Baron (video) (LINK)

Aspen Ideas Festival -- On the Road with Rise of the Rest (video) (LINK)

Entrepreneur Steve Case and "Hillbilly Elegy" author-turned-venture-capitalist J. D. Vance have taken their investment mission on a bus tour they’re calling “Rise of the Rest.” They are travelling around Middle America, identifying and rewarding entrepreneurs who exhibit the kinds of talent and ingenuity that many mistakenly believe only happens in Silicon Valley. What are they learning about the US innovation economy? Joining them in discussion is Katie Couric, who herself has been crisscrossing America to find out what makes us tick.

Trailblazers with Walter Isaacson (podcast): Timing the Market (LINK)

American Innovations Podcast: Nuclear Energy | Atoms For Peace | 3 (LINK)

The last couple of Crazy Genius podcasts are complementary... Why Haven’t We Found Aliens? and Should We Go to Mars?

The Smithsonian Had To Dig Up Their Dinosaurs Again - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Book of the day: Mises: The Last Knight of Liberalism – by Jörg Guido Hülsmann

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"A lot of things end up in the 'too hard' pile, and it doesn’t bother us.... We don’t have to be able to do everything well." --Warren Buffett

Howard Marks warns private equity standards slipping (LINK)

Private equity groups are lowering their standards over investment choices, raising money too easily and paying record prices in a shift that will lead to lower returns than the historical average for investors, according to Howard Marks, founder of Oaktree. 

Mr Marks, a billionaire investor, said private equity groups were being pushed into accepting poor terms on deals. He told the Financial Times that money managers have a “big impetus to get invested” even if it means backing bad ideas.

Why It Is Harder to Diagnose Hospital Stocks (LINK)

New accounting rules make assessing financial health more difficult for hospitals and companies that work with them

The analyst who quit his job to be a teacher and a 'Safal Niveshak' (LINK)

Invest Like the Best Podcast: The Darkest Night: Lessons from Battle and Value Investing, with Mike Zapata (LINK)

Steven Pinker chats with Jordan Peterson about his book Enlightenment Now (podcast) (LINK)

22 Rules for Creating Work That Stands the Test of Time - by Ryan Holiday (LINK)

"There are situations you will see over a long period of time...[where] it would be a mistake—if you’re working with smaller sums—it would be a mistake not to have half your net worth in.... Sometimes in securities, [you] see things that are lead-pipe cinches. And you’re not going to see them often and they’re not going to be talking about them on television or anything of the sort, but there will be some extraordinary things [that] happen in a lifetime where you can put 75 percent of your net worth or something like that in a given situation."  --Warren Buffett (2008)

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“People create their worlds with the tools they have directly at hand. Faulty tools produce faulty results. Repeated use of the same faulty tools produces the same faulty results. It is in this manner that those who fail to learn from the past doom themselves to repeat it. It’s partly fate. It’s partly inability. It’s partly… unwillingness to learn? Refusal to learn? Motivated refusal to learn?” -Jordan Peterson, 12 Rules for Life [H/T Taubes]

This circulated several years ago, but in case any readers have never seen it [H/T @FocusedCompound].... Notes from Joel Greenblatt’s Special Situation Class at Columbia Business School from 2002 through 2006

The New 2018–2019 Uber Cannibals - by Mohnish Pabrai (LINK)

How to Talk to People About Money - by Morgan Housel (LINK)

Domino’s Pizza Founder Tom Monaghan’s Five Priorities for Success - by Ian Cassel (LINK)

Friar Tuck Financial Services: A Classic Unbundle/Re-bundle Strategy - by Tren Griffin (LINK)

Facebook and the Awakening of Our Private Selves - by Rick Bookstaber (LINK)

Scott Galloway, Prof. NYU Stern School of Business – Keynote | OMR18 (video) (LINK)

The History of Singapore: The Miracle of Asia (Full Documentary) [H/T Tim Ferriss] (LINK)

Related book (which a mentor of mine once said was probably the most useful book ever written): From Third World to First: The Singapore Story - 1965-2000

Einstein’s Theory of Special Relativity (MetaLearn Podcast) (LINK)

Book of the day [H/T Josh Wolfe]: Immortality: The Quest to Live Forever and How It Drives Civilization – by Stephen Cave 

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"If you buy a stock and it goes down and that upsets you, it obviously means you think the market knows more about the company than you do. In that case you're the patsy. If you want to buy more because you know the business is worth just as much as when you bought it, perhaps a little more, so you buy more, it's the patsy." -Warren Buffett [H/T OID]

Ray Dalio: "Principles: Life and Work" | Talks at Google (LINK)

Related book: Principles: Life and Work

Stratechery 4.0 - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

What I’ve Learned from Jordan Peterson - by Russ Roberts (LINK)

Invest Like the Best Podcast: Live Ep.1, With Peter Attia, M.D. (LINK)

This week’s episode was the first one that I’ve recorded live. It was the second dinner in what I expect to be a long series where I bring together 30 people from a variety of backgrounds to discuss an interesting and emerging topic, whether that be cryptocurrencies, health, cannabis investing, or some other compelling, emergent thing.

Bill Gates reviews Turtles All the Way Down by John Green (LINK)

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"One, remember to look up at the stars and not down at your feet. Two, never give up work. Work gives you meaning and purpose and life is empty without it. Three, if you are lucky enough to find love, remember it is there and don't throw it away." -Stephen Hawking

The Power of Detachment (LINK)

Piramal Enterprises has the rare distinction of generating annualized shareholder return of 30% over 29 years till 2017. And the architect behind this stunning performance is Ajay Piramal.

Theranos and Silicon Valley's 'Fake It Till You Make It' Culture (LINK)

Billionaire Raises His Bet on Containerships (LINK)

Not a Single Japanese 10-Year Bond Traded Tuesday (LINK)

WorkLife with Adam Grant (podcast): The Team of Humble Narcissists (LINK)

Jordan Peterson on taking responsibility for your life (video) (LINK)

Related book: 12 Rules for Life: An Antidote to Chaos

What a Giant Soda Stream Reveals About the Fate of Corals - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Stephen Hawking (1942–2018) (LINK)

The Universe and Beyond, with Stephen Hawking [aired 10 days ago] (video) (LINK)

This year’s season finale of StarTalk on National Geographic TV was Neil deGrasse Tyson's interview with Stephen Hawking. In memory of his passing, and in celebration of his life, we offer that episode for you here, now, commercial free.

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"Neither Jerry nor I believed the efficient market theory. I had overwhelming evidence of inefficiency from blackjack, from the history of Warren Buffett and friends, and from our daily success in Princeton Newport Partners. We didn’t ask, Is the market efficient? but rather, In what ways and to what extent is the market inefficient? and How can we exploit this?" - Ed Thorp, A Man for All Markets [currently $1.99 on Kindle]

Is Warren Buffett Too Big to Beat the Market? - by Jason Zweig ($) (LINK)

An interview with Peter Buffett (LINK)

Related book: Life Is What You Make It: Find Your Own Path to Fulfillment

The Broyhill Annual Letter - Hilariously Rich (LINK)

New leader of $6 billion money-management firm looks to podcasts and cryptocurrencies to keep active investing relevant (LINK)

Exponent Podcast: Episode 143 — Dilly-Dallying Dropbox (LINK)

Shake Shack founder Danny Meyer on the When to Jump podcast [H/T Abnormal Returns] (LINK)

Sal Khan: "Education Reimagined" | Talks at Google (LINK)

Carl Icahn dumped millions in steel-related stock last week [H/T @eosnos] (LINK)

Related article from last year: Carl Icahn's Failed Raid on Washington (The New Yorker, August 2017) 

Possibly worth reviewing given yesterday's news on trade...
Tyler Cowen's podcast chat with Douglas Irwin whose book, Clashing over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy, Cowen thinks is the best history of American trade policy ever written.

Tyler Cowen’s 12 rules for life (LINK)

Jordan Peterson: 'I Don't Want People Falling Down in an Ideological Abyss' (LINK)

The Role of Luck in Life Success Is Far Greater Than We Realized [H/T @sfiscience] (LINK)

The Temin Effect (LINK)

Book of the day [H/T @awealthofcs]: A Splendid Exchange: How Trade Shaped the World - by William J. Bernstein

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Full Transcript of the Daily Journal Annual Meeting 2018 (LINK) [Note: If you read this, I recommend listening to the joke Munger tells at the 39:28 mark in the audio version (in his reply to Question 4) when you get to that part, as it is way more entertaining to hear him tell it than just reading it.]

Private Equity: Overvalued and Overrated? - by Dan Rasmussen (LINK)

GORILLA BATTLES: Q1 2018 On What Amazon Means For The Rest Of Us (LINK)

Direct Wisdom from John Malone (LINK)

Labor 2030: The Collision of Demographics, Automation and Inequality [H/T @AlexRubalcava] (LINK)

A Chinese Casino Has Conquered a Piece of America (LINK)

Washington’s $500 Million Financial-Storm Forecaster Is Foundering ($) (LINK)

Invest Like the Best Podcast: Pat Dorsey Returns – The Moat Portfolio (LINK)

Sebastian Junger Never Owned a Smartphone (and Why This Matters) - by Cal Newport (LINK)

Jordan B. Peterson on 12 Rules for Life (video) (LINK)

Related book: 12 Rules for Life: An Antidote to Chaos

A 30-part BBC Podcast Series: Living With The Gods [H/T Tamas] (LINK)

Neil MacGregor explores the role and expression of shared beliefs in communities around the world.