Links

"In economics, it’s far easier to tell what will happen than when it will happen. I mean, you can see bubbles develop and things, but you do not know how big the bubble will get." --Warren Buffett (2005)

A Fifth of China's Homes Are Empty. That's 50 Million Apartments (LINK)

Google in China: When ‘Don’t Be Evil’ Met the Great Firewall (LINK)

Kate Welling discusses Merger Masters on the According to Sources podcast (LINK)

Reflections on the Bank of England’s History (LINK)

Related book: Till Time's Last Sand: A History of the Bank of England 1694-2013

Tony Robbins & Peter H. Diamandis: Vitality, Longevity, Education & Human Purpose during our Exponential Age (LINK)

The Longevity Opportunity (LINK)

How to Engineer Biology (LINK)

Tim Berners-Lee launches campaign to save the web from abuse [H/T @jasonzweigwsj] (LINK)

Tech C.E.O.s Are in Love With Their Principal Doomsayer (LINK)

The futurist philosopher Yuval Noah Harari thinks Silicon Valley is an engine of dystopian ruin. So why do the digital elite adore him so?

Book of the day: Blitzscaling: The Lightning-Fast Path to Building Massively Valuable Companies

Links

"I think you can only plan in broad terms where you want to go and what are the major pieces which you want to put in place. And then you have to leave a lot of space for the economy to develop, for people to pursue their passions, and for technology to unfold. But you do have to do things with a long-term perspective." --Lee Hsien Loong 

Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong Speaks at New Economy Forum (video) [H/T Cathy] (LINK)

The Tim Ferriss Show: Doug McMillon — CEO of Walmart (podcast) (LINK)

Disruptive Innovation: The Role of Hospitals, Integration, and the Value-Added Process (LINK)

Sam Altman on Choosing Projects, Creating Value, and Finding Purpose (video and podcast) (LINK)

The Extremely Fast Peopling of the Americas - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Nassim Nicholas Taleb: "Skin in the Game" | Talks at Google

Link to video

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Related book: Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life

Links

I Can’t See Berkshire’s Bottom Line - by Donald E. Graham ($) (LINK)

A new accounting rule makes it difficult for investors to make sense of annual reports.

Buffett’s Underrated Investment Attribute - by John Huber (LINK)

Making Sense Of Multiples: Mauboussin On EV/EBITDA (LINK)

Once an Optimist on U.S.-China Relations, Henry Paulson Delivers a Sobering Message ($) (LINK)

The former Treasury secretary warns that Chinese behavior and U.S. miscalculation could bring down an ‘economic Iron Curtain’ between the two global superpowers

On Physician Burnout and the Plight of the Modern Knowledge Worker - by Cal Newport (LINK)

Eric Schmidt chats with Tyler Cowen (podcast) (LINK)

Hard Words: Why aren't kids being taught to read? (LINK)

Scientific research has shown how children learn to read and how they should be taught. But many educators don't know the science and, in some cases, actively resist it. As a result, millions of kids are being set up to fail.

Book of the day (was released this week): Merger Masters: Tales of Arbitrage - by Kate Welling and Mario Gabelli

Links

" If you stop to think about it, the ordinary result when a big publicly-held corporation buys another corporation is that, maybe two-thirds of the time, it’s a terrible deal for the buying corporation and yet the people have taken an enormous time doing it. And we’ve bought all these businesses taking practically no time in doing it, and on average they’ve worked out wonderfully. Why is that? That’s a good question. The answer is we wait for the no-brainers. We’re not trying to do the difficult things....  And we have the patience to wait. And then we’re so peculiar that there actually are a good number of businesses in America where they prefer selling to us than to other people. That’s very helpful." --Charlie Munger (2002 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting)

All it Takes is One - by Ian Cassel (LINK)

State of the Cloud Report 2018 - Bessemer Venture Partners [H/T @ChrisPavese] (LINK)

Grant’s Current Yield Podcast: Read the fine print (LINK)

Related book: Financial Fine Print

The Problem Behind a Viral Video of a Persistent Baby Bear - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Links

"Controlling risk is the mark of a professional. Anybody can make money when the market goes up. And most of the time the market goes up. And anybody who takes above-average risk can do above average when the market rises. So achieving returns is not a point of distinction in good times. In my opinion, the distinction of a superior investor is achieving returns in good times with the risk under control, because you never know when the environment is going to shift from favorable to unfavorable. And the question is: are you prepared?" --Howard Marks

Why Doctors Hate Their Computers - by Atul Gawande (LINK)

Cycles with Howard Marks, Julio Herrera, Jordon Kruse and Robert O'Leary (video) (LINK)

Greenhaven Road Capital Q3 2018 Letter [with an overview of new holding Box, Inc.] (LINK)

Apple’s Social Network - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

Sometimes, It’s Bonds For the Long Run - by Jason Zweig ($) (LINK)

How Tesla Made a Record Profit - by Charley Grant ($) (LINK)

Avenue’s Marc Lasry Sees Reckoning for Investment-Grade Company Bonds [H/T @ShaiDardashti] (LINK)

Book review: “The Myth of Capitalism” by Jonathan Tepper (LINK)

What’s Staying the Same (LINK)

5 Tactics Used By Passive-Aggressive Arguers (And The Best Forms of Defense) - by Robert Greene (LINK)

The Most Misread Poem in America [H/T @kevin2kelly] (LINK)

Why the Long Face, Extinct Dolphin? - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Bill Gates talks toilets (video) (LINK)

Links

A reminder to readers, especially those in and around New York City, the super-early-bird pricing for the Project Punch Card Conference ends on November 7th. 

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"Once you crank into your mental apparatus that you’re not looking at things that wiggle up and down on charts, or that people send you little missives on, you know, saying buy this because it’s going up next week, or it’s going to split, or the dividend’s going to get increased, or whatever, but instead you’re buying a business. You’ve now set a foundation for going on and thinking rationally about investing. And there’s no reason why you need a high IQ to do that. There’s no reason why you have to be born in some way. I do think there’s certain matters of temperament that may be innate, they may be learned, they may be intensified by experience as you go on, partially innate, but then reinforced in various ways by your experience as you go through life, but that’s enormously important. I mean, you have to be realistic. You have to just define your circle of competence accurately. You have to know what you don’t know and not get enticed by it.... You’ve got to have an interest in money, I think, or you won’t be good in investing. But I think if you’re very greedy, it’ll be a disaster, because that will overcome rationality." --Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Repurchases More Than $900 Million of Stock ($) (LINK)

Berkshire’s Repurchase Policy: Too Little, Too Late? (LINK)

Howard Marks chats with James Altucher (podcast) (LINK)

Related book: Mastering the Market Cycle

The Tim Ferriss Show: Seth Godin on How to Say “No,” Market Like a Professional, and Win at Life (LINK)

Related book: This Is Marketing: You Can't Be Seen Until You Learn to See  

Related 2010 article (mentioned in the podcast): The world’s worst boss

Elon Musk: The Recode interview (podcast and transcript) (LINK)

Robert Cialdini on the Masters in Business podcast (LINK)

Leithner Letter No. 229-232 (LINK)

Unpacking Industry 4.0 (LINK)

Could Military Veterans Change More Than Control of Congress? - by Evan Osnos (LINK)

Howard Marks: "Mastering the Market Cycle"

In this Talks at GS episode, Oaktree Capital co-founder Howard Marks shares his insights on the forces shaping the market cycle and discusses how his writing has informed his perspective as an investor.

Link to video

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Related book: Mastering the Market Cycle

Links

Warren Buffett on Protecting Physicians and Building on Success: “We’re Here to Last” (video) [H/T Will] (LINK)

Why Gotham's Greenblatt Likes 'Gushing' Cash-Flow Stocks (video) [H/T Linc] (LINK)

Taleb Says World Is More Fragile Today Than in 2007 (video) (LINK)

No One is Crazy - by Morgan Housel (LINK)

That Big Mac and Coke Now Comes With a Side Order of Inflation ($) (LINK)

After 10 Years, Bitcoin Has Changed Everything—and Nothing (LINK)

Jonathan Tepper on the Grant's Current Yield Podcast discussing his book The Myth of Capitalism (LINK)

Exponential Wisdom Podcast: Transforming Entertainment (LINK)

Peter and Dan discuss entertainment business models and why there is massive opportunity in the area of how money is made.

Dan Pink chats with Cal Fussman (podcast) (LINK)

Related book: When: The Scientific Secrets of Perfect Timing

Robert Greene chats with Lewis Howes about his book The Laws of Human Nature (podcast) (LINK)

TED Talk: Is war between China and the US inevitable? | Graham Allison (LINK)

Related book: Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?

TED Talk: What everyday citizens can do to claim power on the internet | Fadi Chehadé and Bryn Freedman (LINK)

TED Talk: How tech companies deceive you into giving up your data and privacy | Finn Myrstad (LINK)

Animals Are Riding an Escalator to Extinction - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Ain’t no mountain high enough to escape climate change.

Wait, Have We Really Wiped Out 60 Percent of Animals? - by Ed Yong (LINK)

The findings of a major new report have been widely mischaracterized—although the actual news is still grim.

How to Not Become a Zombie, Using Martial Arts - by Ed Yong (LINK)

Reader beware: These techniques may work only if you're a cockroach.

Tom Gayner reveals how he became a successful investor

Link to video


[H/T Ian]