Links

The Base Rate Book: Integrating the Past to Better Anticipate the Future - by Michael Mauboussin et al. [H/T Hurricane Capital] (LINK)

Phil Jaber and friends : "Philz Coffee" | Talks at Google [H/T @iancassel] (LINK)

Moleskine Turns Paper Into Big Profit for Private-Equity Owner [H/T @chriswmayer] (LINK)

Microsoft to Salesforce: Game on (LINK)

Trump Tees Up a Necessary Debate on the Fed [H/T Matt] (LINK)

Leave the conspiracy theory aside and look at the facts: Since the Fed began aggressive monetary easing in 2008, my calculations show that nearly 60% of stock market gains have come on those days, once every six weeks, that the Federal Open Market Committee announces its policy decisions. 

Put another way, the S&P 500 index has gained 699 points since January 2008, and 422 of those points came on the 70 Fed announcement days. The average gain on announcement days was 0.49%, or roughly 50 times higher than the average gain of 0.01% on other days. 

Danny Meyer Just Single-Handedly Made the Apple Watch Relevant to the Hospitality Industry [H/T @IntrinsicInv] (LINK)

The Tim Ferriss Show: Matt Mullenweg on the Characteristics and Practices of Successful Entrepreneurs (podcast) (LINK)

Exponent podcast: Episode 090 — Fashionable to Be Cynical (LINK)

a16z Podcast: From Data Warehouses to Data Lakes (LINK)

Quote of the day: "There are two different states of human existence: first, to live without thinking of death; second, to live with the thought that you approach death with every hour of your life." -Leo Tolstoy (from A Calendar of Wisdom)

Links

Howard Marks: Keep Calm and Invest On (video) (LINK)

Famed investor Howard Marks shares his insights on the value of remaining calm in troubled times at the Bloomberg Markets Most Influential Summit in New York. 

Bill Miller Plans a Return to His Roots (LINK)

Bill Miller, Jim Chanos And Robert Bishop: Delivering Alpha Unfiltered (full video) [H/T ValueWalk] (LINK)

Planet MicroCap Podcast: Episode 28 - What is an ‘Intelligent Fanatic’ with Sean Iddings, Co-Author of “Intelligent Fanatics Project” (LINK)

Robert Cialdini on The Owner's Mind podcast (LINK)

Related book: Pre-Suasion

Freakonomics Radio: Why Are We Still Using Cash? (LINK)

Related book: The Curse of Cash

TED Talk - Sebastian Kraves: The era of personal DNA testing is here (LINK)

TED Talk - Sam Harris: Can we build AI without losing control over it? (LINK)

How Philosophy Drives Discovery: A scientist's view of Popper (LINK)

In this talk, the 8th Sir Karl Popper Memorial Lecture, Sir Paul Nurse will discuss how the philosophical works of Karl Popper have informed the practice of his own scientific research activities, indicating where it has helped and where it has required modifications. 

The Cato chronicles, part III: commander, and brother (LINK)

Related book: Rome's Last Citizen: The Life and Legacy of Cato, Mortal Enemy of Caesar

Book/Essay of the day: The Wisdom of Life - by Arthur Schopenhauer (If you buy this Kindle edition for $0.99, you can also add the audiobook when checking out, which was just released a couple of months ago, for $2.99.)

Links

Elon Musk's talk on Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species (video) (LINK)

All I Want To Know Is Where I’m Going To Die So I’ll Never Go There (LINK)

Related previous posts: 1) "You have to have a temperament to grab ideas and do sensible things..."; 2) Charlie Munger: This is the way you win big in the world...

Bloomberg Surveillance Primetime: Julian Robertson (video) (LINK)

Julian Robertson, Tiger Management's chairman and chief executive officer, sits down with Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Mike McKee to discuss his thoughts on the U.S. presidential election, the stock market, hedge funds and the global economy. 

Oh, Canada, You Have the Bubbliest City (LINK)

The bubbliest housing market in the world isn’t to be found in Asia, the U.S. or even Europe. Vancouver is the most overpriced city on earth according to an index released by investment bank UBS. Its inaugural Global Real Estate Bubble Index identifies five other global cities that are in “bubble risk” territory: London, Stockholm, Sydney, Munich and Hong Kong.

Quants Do the Math on a New Target: Insurance [H/T Will] (LINK)

Grocery Prices Are Plunging [H/T Matt] (LINK)

In a startling development, almost unheard of outside a recession, food prices have fallen for nine straight months in the U.S. It’s the longest streak of food deflation since 1960 -- with the exception of 2009, when the financial crisis was winding down. Analysts credit low oil and grain prices, as well as cutthroat competition from discounters. Consumers are winning out; grocery chains, not so much. Their margins and, in some cases, their stock prices, are taking a hit.

Marriott Is Using Its Muscle to Fight Off Expedia and Priceline [H/T Matt] (LINK)

Related previous link: The Definitive Oral History of Online Travel

Tom Russo's 2nd Quarter Semper Vic Partners Investor Letter [H/T @jvembuna] (LINK)

Richard Perry Walks Away, Hoping for a Shot at Vindication (video plays) (LINK)

Legendary value investor Charles Brandes on where he’s investing now (video plays) [H/T Linc] (LINK)

Related book: Brandes on Value

IVA Funds Update Call Transcript (September 13, 2016) [H/T @chriswmayer] (LINK)

The Busyness Paradox, Oliver Burkeman Is Busy (BBC Radio 4) [H/T @TimHarford] (LINK)

An Interview with the Master: Robert Greene on Stoicism (LINK)

Related book: The Daily Stoic: 366 Meditations on Wisdom, Perseverance, and the Art of Living

What Separates Champions From ‘Almost Champions’? [H/T @DanielPink] (LINK)

The best goal is also the simplest: Get better. Super champions were driven from within. Their primary concern was self-improvement. They held themselves to high standards, but judged themselves against prior versions of themselves, not against others. 

Almost champions, however, were focused on external benchmarks, like national rankings or how they compared to rivals, a mind-set the researchers speculate explains why almost champions got discouraged during rough patches.

Five wild lionesses grow a mane and start acting like males (LINK)

Links

For audiobook listeners out there, Audible extended their latest sale until the end of the month. The titles that stood out to me are at the bottom of THIS post.

James Gleick's latest book was released today: Time Travel: A History

How Arnold Palmer Revolutionized the Business of Sports (LINK)

Practicing a "Punch Card" Approach to Investing - by John Huber (LINK)

When To Sell - by Ian Cassel (LINK)

Horizon Kinetics on the Survivability of Automobile Companies: How Important is a Company’s Patriarch? (from 2010) (LINK)

Jason Zweig on the Invest Like the Best podcast (LINK)

Snapchat Spectacles and the Future of Wearables - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

Heleo Conversation with Malcolm Gladwell and Virginia Heffernan (video) (LINK)

The Cato chronicles, part II: Cato becomes a Stoic (LINK)

Rare Wildlife Portraits From Photographers Who Click Together (LINK)

Book of the day: America Calling: A Social History of the Telephone to 1940

Links

The Chessboard Fallacy (LINK)

Latticework of Mental Models: Scarcity Bias (LINK) [Also from Vishal: Mental Models, Investing, and You (Special E-Book)]

The Fight to Keep It Simple (LINK)

Related previous post: If it's not simple, then I'm not interested...

Comments on investment philosophy - part one -- by John Hempton (LINK)

The ~30-minute CNBC video interview with Bruce Berkowitz [H/T Will] (LINK)

Why Getting Rich Quick Doesn’t Sound Crazy - by Jason Zweig (LINK)

Self-made billionaire Jim Koch says this book taught him more than Harvard did [H/T Matt] (LINK)

Related book: How to Master the Art of Selling

Peter Diamandis’s 9 Rules For Building A Successful Business (LINK)

Snapchat Releases First Hardware Product, Spectacles (LINK)

What’s the Best Safe Haven for Investors? - by Mark Spitznagel [H/T Jim] (LINK)

Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Structural Growth and Dope Dealers on Speed-Dial (LINK)

Presently, the Shiller CAPE stands at close to 26, which is already well above historical norms, and above anything seen prior to the sequential bubbles (and collapses) of recent cycles. But the CAPE only captures part of the risk, because that 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings actually embeds the highest profit margin in history. By accepting the CAPE at face-value, investors are quietly assuming that profit margins will remain at this level permanently. On the basis of normalized profit margins, which systematically produce a more reliable valuation measure across history, the CAPE would presently be at 36.

Richard Duncan posted the final chapter of his book The Dollar Crisis, written in December 2004, which was interesting to read nearly 12 years later (LINK) [And if you want to subscribe to Richard Duncan's Macro Watch newsletter, you should also still be able to use the coupon code 'valueinvestingworld' to get 50% off.]

Exponent podcast: Episode 089 — Move On from the 80s (LINK)

The Cato chronicles, part I: young Cato (LINK)

Related book: Rome's Last Citizen: The Life and Legacy of Cato, Mortal Enemy of Caesar

How To Overcome Addiction And Make Lasting Changes In Your Life [H/T @AdamMGrant] (LINK)

Structural end-market growth...

From Quality Investing: Owning the best companies for the long term:

Whereas cyclical growth refers to episodic expansions, structural growth refers to more permanent expansions supported by persistent trends deemed likely to endure. The inherent prognosis, however, warrants skepticism, as the observed pattern is often in fact cyclical and merely temporary. Many emerging market trends previously considered structural seem, in hindsight, to have been more cyclical in nature. 

Despite this, there are a number of long-term trends that are more likely to prove sustainable than others, ranging from disease prevention to urbanization and aging demographics in developed markets. But it is not safe to assume, for instance, that all people on earth want to own a certain number of cars or spend a stated portion of income on beer. 

There are many examples of erroneous assumptions along these lines. A notable one occurred in the US golfing industry. Growth was projected to increase in tandem with a rising population, favorable demographics, and increasing wealth. The projection was wrong. Between 2006 and 2013, the number of golfers in the US fell by 18% despite 6% growth in the US population. A broader example is occurring in China, where once soaring consumer appetites for goods like cognac and pastimes like gambling have abruptly reversed. Only time will tell if this reversal is temporary or permanent.

Links

Berkshire Hathaway Symposium: Panel 2 - Shareholders (5 videos) (LINK)

Richard S. Tedlow Leads the IBM 360 HBS Case (2008 video) [H/T @PlanMaestro] (LINK)

Professor Richard S. Tedlow of Harvard Business School and a Trustee of the Computer History Museum discusses the story of IBM, the leading technology company in the 1960s, taking a huge risk in developing a new family of computers -- a financial investment approximately three times its 1960 annual sales. In 1966, Fortune magazine called this "perhaps the riskiest business judgment" of the era. 

Oracle's Cloudy Future - by Ben Thompson (LINK)

Seth Godin on Creativity, Writer’s Block, and What It Sounds Like When You Change Your Mind (podcast) (LINK)

Edge #479: Infrastructure As Dialogue - A Conversation With Monica Smith (LINK)

What I like about the three great Roman Stoics - by Massimo Pigliucci (LINK)

Book of the day: How to Make a Spaceship: A Band of Renegades, an Epic Race, and the Birth of Private Spaceflight

Links

The video of Senator Elizabeth Warren questioning Wells Fargo CEO John Stumpf (LINK)

Whipping Wells Fargo (LINK)

How Ulta and Mary Dillon Are Winning the Beauty Battle [video plays when article opens] [H/T @BluegrassCap] (LINK)

GuruFocus: 18 Questions With Dale Wettlaufer of Charlotte Lane Capital Management (LINK)

You don't know anything! - by Nate Tobik (LINK)

Silicon Valley’s Secrets Are Hiding in Marc Andreessen’s Library [H/T Barry Ritholtz] (LINK)

World’s hardiest animal has evolved radiation shield for its DNA (LINK)

Human remains found in hobbit cave (LINK)

Ancient teeth make Homo sapiens the lead suspect in the extinction of Homo floresiensis.

Links

Buffett’s Investing Deputy Todd Combs Named to JPMorgan’s Board (LINK)

How to invest like… Warren Buffett's hero Philip Carret [H/T @chriswmayer] (LINK)

Related book: A Money Mind at 90 

Related article: Buy ‘em Cheap and Hold ‘em

What Are You Doing About It? Reaching Deep Fluency with Mental Models (LINK)

The Difference Between Rationality and Intelligence [H/T @mjmauboussin] (LINK)

The Dangers of ‘Self-Driving’ Car Hype (LINK)

The Coming Anti-National Revolution World - by Robert Shiller (LINK)

It’s time to junk the flawed economic models that make the world a dangerous place [H/T @jasonzweigwsj] (LINK)

Invest Like the Best podcast: Michael Mauboussin – Active Asset Management (LINK)

This looks like an interesting new podcast from NPR [H/T @Kevin_Holloway]: How I Built This

How I Built This is a podcast about innovators, entrepreneurs, and idealists, and the stories behind the movements they built. Each episode is a narrative journey marked by triumphs, failures, serendipity and insight — told by the founders of some of the world's best known companies and brands. 

There's a new edition (50% longer) of Nassim Taleb's The Bed of Procrustes: Philosophical and Practical Aphorisms

Book of the day (released next month):  The Daily Stoic: 366 Meditations on Wisdom, Perseverance, and the Art of Living

Links

Tomorrow (Tuesday, Sept. 20) Yahoo Finance will live stream a conversation with Warren Buffett at the 2016 Concordia Summit [H/T Will] (LINK)

Farnam Street on the Bias from Disliking/Hating (LINK)

The Greatest Bubble of All-Time? - by Ben Carlson (LINK)

The Economist: A special report on the world's most powerful companies (LINK)

Ray Dalio And Timothy Geithner: Delivering Alpha Unfiltered (~30 minute video) [H/T ValueWalk] (LINK)

Delivering Alpha Conference 2016 Speaker Transcripts (LINK)

The Waiter's Pad: Notes on Judith Elsea's appearance on the Origins podcast from Notation Capital (LINK)

A conversation with Aston Motes, Dropbox’s first employee (LINK)

The Third Transportation Revolution: Lyft’s Vision for the Next Ten Years and Beyond (LINK)

Some more good titles in the current $4.95 Audible sale (if you're not an Audible member yet, you can sign up HERE):

Debt - Updated and Expanded: The First 5,000 Years - By David Graeber (Seth Godin has specifically recommended consuming this book in audio format.)

What I Learned Losing a Million Dollars - By Jim Paul,  Brendan Moynihan

Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future - By Martin Ford

In the Plex: How Google Thinks, Works, and Shapes Our Lives - By Steven Levy

Super Mario: How Nintendo Conquered America - By Jeff Ryan

The Selfish Gene - By Richard Dawkins

Civilization: The West and the Rest - By Niall Ferguson

The Righteous Mind: Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and Religion - By Jonathan Haidt

The Medieval World (The Great Courses)

The War of Art: Winning the Inner Creative Battle - By Steven Pressfield

The Life-Changing Magic of Tidying Up: The Japanese Art of Decluttering and Organizing - By Marie Kondo

We Learn Nothing: Essays - By Tim Kreider

The Wealth of Nations - By Adam Smith

Meditations - By Marcus Aurelius

The Untethered Soul: The Journey Beyond Yourself - By Michael A. Singer

Lawrence in Arabia: War, Deceit, Imperial Folly, and the Making of the Modern Middle East - By Scott Anderson

The Passage of Power: The Years of Lyndon Johnson - By Robert A. Caro

The Pilgrim's Progress: From This World to That Which Is to Come - By John Bunyan

Once an Eagle: A Novel - By Anton Myrer

The Hobbit – by J.R.R. Tolkien

The Complete Sherlock Holmes: The Heirloom Collection - By Arthur Conan Doyle