UNDERSTANDING IS A POOR SUBSTITUTE FOR CONVEXITY (ANTIFRAGILITY) - By Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Something
central, very central, is missing in historical accounts of scientific and
technological discovery. The discourse and controversies focus on the role of
luck as opposed to teleological programs (from telos, "aim"), that is, ones that rely on pre-set
direction from formal science. This is a faux-debate: luck cannot lead to
formal research policies; one cannot systematize, formalize, and program
randomness. The driver is neither luck nor direction, but must be in the
asymmetry (or convexity) of payoffs, a simple mathematical property that has
lied hidden from the discourse, and the understanding of which can lead to
precise research principles and protocols.
