Monday, August 24, 2015


Rescuing Mes Aynak: Mega Copper Deal in Afghanistan Fuels Rush to Save Ancient Treasures (LINK)

a16z Podcast: Tech’s Biggest Ideas and How They Take Hold (LINK)

Nate Silver on the Masters in Business radio podcast (LINK)
Related book: The Signal and the Noise
Evan Osnos' article on Donald Trump and his campaign (LINK)

Scott Adams continues his look into Donald Trump's persuasion tactics - Trump VS Bush: Persuasion Wars (LINK)

Brad Katsuyama’s Next Chapter (LINK)

In Times of Market Panic (LINK)

The Method in the Market’s Current Madness - By James Surowiecki (LINK)

James Grant on CNBC this morning (Video 1, Video 2)

Hussman Weekly Market Comment: Risk Turns Risky: Unpleasant Skew, Scale Dilation, and Broken Lines (LINK)
The same lesson has been learned and re-learned by investors across a century of market cycles. When a previously overvalued, overbought, overbullish market is joined by internal deterioration – with numerous securities, sectors, industries and securities simultaneously breaking down, accepting market risk is typically not rewarded, and stocks instead become vulnerable to air-pockets, free-falls, and crashes. Range-bound markets, particularly at elevated valuations, often offer a false sense of security; making investors believe that their risk is low because day-to-day volatility is contained. Last week's market loss was initial and quite contained from the standpoint of current valuations. My view is that under the market conditions we presently observe, investors face the continued potential for steep, vertical losses. That outlook will change as market conditions change. 
I’ll emphasize, as usual, that the message here is not “sell everything.” The message is to understand where we are in the market cycle from the standpoint of a century of reliable evidence, and to act in a way that meets your investment objectives. Align your portfolio with careful consideration for your tolerance for losses over the market cycle; with your willingness to miss out on interim market gains should they emerge; with the horizon over which you will actually need to spend from your investments; with the extent that you believe that history is actually informative for making investment decisions; with the extent to which alternative investment outlooks are supported by evidence, ideally spanning numerous market cycles. I am not encouraging buy-and-hold investors to depart from well-considered investment plans or to abandon their discipline; only that they take every step to ensure their portfolio is actually aligned with their true risk tolerance and investment horizon.
Quote of the day:
"I think it’s essential to remember that just about everything is cyclical. There’s little I’m certain of, but these things are true: Cycles always prevail eventually. Nothing goes in one direction forever. Trees don’t grow to the sky. Few things go to zero. And there’s little that’s as dangerous for investor health as insistence on extrapolating today’s events into the future." -Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing