The Confidence Game - by James Grant

In disclosing plans to buy a quarter-trillion dollars of bank stock in the name of the American taxpayer, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson harped on confidence. "Today, there is a lack of confidence in our financial system, a lack of confidence that must be conquered," he said on Tuesday.

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What Mr. Paulson did not get around to mentioning was the excess of confidence that preceded the shortfall. Under the spell of soaring house prices (and before that, of stock prices), Americans trusted the things they ought to have doubted. But markets are cyclical, and there is always a new day. In compensating fashion, people will eventually doubt the things they ought to have trusted. Investment opportunity follows disillusionment. It's complacency that precedes bear markets.

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If the confidence deficit seems so high, it's because the preceding confidence surplus was full to overflowing. People suspended critical judgment. They accepted at face value the pretensions of central bankers and the competence of investment bankers. Not one professional investor in 50, probably, doubted that wads of subprime mortgages could be refashioned into bonds that were just as creditworthy as U.S. Treasurys.

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And the opportunities? For the first time in a long time, stocks, tradable bank loans and mortgages are becoming cheap. The bear market is truly a value restoration project. Wall Street will be going on sale -- if the government will let it. For the entrepreneur, the silver lining in the federalization of finance is obvious. Start a bank or broker-dealer to compete with the institutions that will soon be smothered in Mr. Paulson's quarter-trillion dollar embrace. There's oxygen, still, in the free market.

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Related Books:

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Mr. Market Miscalculates: The Bubble Years and Beyond

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Security Analysis Sixth Edition

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